| 生育政策调整对我国劳动力供给规模的影响评估 |
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| 引用本文： | 童玉芬,周 文,陈乐鸣,宫倩楠.生育政策调整对我国劳动力供给规模的影响评估[J].中国劳动关系学院学报,2021,35(2):107-116. |
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| 作者姓名： | 童玉芬 周 文 陈乐鸣 宫倩楠 |
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| 作者单位： | 首都经济贸易大学劳动经济学院,北京100070 |
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| 基金项目： | 国家卫生健康委员会委托课题“全面二孩背景下我国劳动力市场供给及变化趋势研究”的阶段性研究成果。 |
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| 摘 要： | 全面二孩政策的实施,是中国生育政策的一次重大调整,研究该政策的实施对劳动力供给的影响具有十分重要的意义。本研究利用2010年的人口普查数据,设置全面二孩政策实施后生育水平可能的变化方案,并在此基础上对全面二孩政策的实施对我国未来劳动力供给规模的影响进行测算。研究结果表明,无论生育政策是否调整,我国未来劳动力供给都将呈现出2030年前缓慢下降、2030年后快速下降的趋势。全面二孩政策的实施在一定程度上增加了2030年后劳动力的供给规模,对减缓劳动力快速下滑的势头起到了积极的作用,但总趋势无法扭转。因此,未来生育政策的进一步调整应当更多地从人口结构、养老保障、育龄妇女的生育意愿等其他社会经济因素方面加以考虑。
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| 关 键 词： | 全面二孩政策 生育水平 劳动力供给 劳动力负增长 |
An Evaluation on the Impact of the Adjustment of Fertility Policy on the
Scale of Labor Supply in China |
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| TONG Yufen,ZHOU Wen,CHEN Leming and GONG Qiannan.An Evaluation on the Impact of the Adjustment of Fertility Policy on the
Scale of Labor Supply in China[J].Journal of China Institute of Industrial Relations,2021,35(2):107-116. |
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| Authors: | TONG Yufen ZHOU Wen CHEN Leming and GONG Qiannan |
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| Affiliation: | (School of Labor Economics,Capital University of Economics and Business,Beijing 100070) |
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| Abstract: | The implementation of the comprehensive two-child policy is a major adjustment of China's fertility policy,which is of great significance to study the impact of the implementation of this policy on labor supply.This study uses data of population census of 2010,and sets a plan for possible changes in the fertility level after the implementation of the comprehensive two-child policy across China.On this basis,the impact of the implementation of the comprehensive two-child policy on China's future labor supply scale is measured.The results show that our country's future labor supply will show a trend of slow decline before 2030,whereas after which a trend of rapid decline regardless of whether the birth policy is adjusted.The implementation of the comprehensive two-child policy,to a certain extent,has increased the scale of labor supply after 2030,and has played a positive role in slowing down the rapid decline in labor.However,the overall trend cannot be reversed.Therefore,further adjustments to future fertility policies should take into account of other socio-economic factors,e.g.population structure,old-age security,and women's willingness to bear children of childbearing age. |
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| Keywords: | comprehensive two-child policy fertility level labor supply negative labor force growth |
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