Predicting police behavior: Ecology,class, and autonomy

Social ecological theories of crime have recently been extended to explain spatial variation in police behavior. Although these theories successfully identify community characteristics affecting local policing, they fail to acknowledge the class-based origins of formal social control and the relative autonomy of the police. This paper addresses the neglected class issue by integrating social ecological and critical theories in a model of police behavior. Cross-sectional data was obtained from twenty-five police agencies’ vice divisions and their corresponding jurisdictions to test the integrated hypothesis. Four social ecological variables and a fiscal measure of relative autonomy are examined as police behavior predictors. Findings reveal that both the autonomy measure and three of the social ecological variables explain significant variance in police behavior, thus supporting the inclusion of structural Marxism in a general theory of police behavior.     

Determinants of public confidence in police: An international perspective

Previous studies concerning public confidence in the police had primarily focused on demographic, attitudinal, and contextual factors in the United States. Little research, however, has used country-level variables to explain variations that exist across countries. As a result, this study examined the impact of country-level predictors (e.g., homicide rate and level of democracy) as well as individual-level predictors on public confidence in the police by utilizing data sets collected from three international surveys. Using hierarchical generalized linear modeling (HGLM) for the multinomial dependent variable, this study found a significant and negative relationship between homicide rate and public confidence in the police. People living in a country with a higher homicide rate reported lower levels of confidence in the police. Level of democracy was also found to be positively related to public confidence in the police. Of the individual-level variables, age and education were found to be significant predictors. A positive relationship was also found between political conservatism or personal satisfaction and confidence in the police. In line with attitudinal and contextual predictors, individuals with higher levels of acceptance toward deviant subcultures reported lower levels of confidence in the police. On the other hand, those who were more satisfied with their country's democratic development showed more favorable attitudes toward the police. The findings of this study implied that police organizations should put greater efforts toward the reduction of crime while protecting democratic values within a society.     

The police,crime, and economic theory: A replication and extension

Based on insights garnered from rational choice theory, Loftin and McDowall hypothesize that there is likely to be a reciprocal relationship, over time, within jurisdictions between police force strength and crime. Contrary to expectations, their ARIMA analyses of the association between total police force employment and the total crime rate for Detriot during the period of 1926 to 1977 produce null findings. As a result, they conclude that rational choice models are too simplistic to explain the relationship between the agency size and crime. It is our contention that this conclusion might be premature. We suggest that a failure to disaggregate total police force employment into its component sectors may be masking substantial reciprocal effects. The present investigation employs ARIMA techniques to model the reciprocal relationship between total, patrol, and detective police employment and total, property, and personal, robbery crimes in Milwaukee for the years 1930 to 1987. Consistent with previous research we report null findings between total police employment and total crime rates. However, the findings also reveal significant reciprocal relationships between the disaggregated measures of police size and crime. The implications of these results for rational choice theory are discussed.     

Risk Clusters,Hotspots, and Spatial Intelligence: Risk Terrain Modeling as an Algorithm for Police Resource Allocation Strategies

The study reported here follows the suggestion by Caplan et al. (Justice Q, 2010) that risk terrain modeling (RTM) be developed by doing more work to elaborate, operationalize, and test variables that would provide added value to its application in police operations. Building on the ideas presented by Caplan et al., we address three important issues related to RTM that sets it apart from current approaches to spatial crime analysis. First, we address the selection criteria used in determining which risk layers to include in risk terrain models. Second, we compare the “best model” risk terrain derived from our analysis to the traditional hotspot density mapping technique by considering both the statistical power and overall usefulness of each approach. Third, we test for “risk clusters” in risk terrain maps to determine how they can be used to target police resources in a way that improves upon the current practice of using density maps of past crime in determining future locations of crime occurrence. This paper concludes with an in depth exploration of how one might develop strategies for incorporating risk terrains into police decision-making. RTM can be developed to the point where it may be more readily adopted by police crime analysts and enable police to be more effectively proactive and identify areas with the greatest probability of becoming locations for crime in the future. The targeting of police interventions that emerges would be based on a sound understanding of geographic attributes and qualities of space that connect to crime outcomes and would not be the result of identifying individuals from specific groups or characteristics of people as likely candidates for crime, a tactic that has led police agencies to be accused of profiling. In addition, place-based interventions may offer a more efficient method of impacting crime than efforts focused on individuals.     

The impact of neighborhood crime levels on police use of force: An examination at micro and meso levels

Purpose

Neighborhood contextual factors have gained a considerable amount of attention, relating neighborhood crime levels to police force. Prior research mainly examined the relationship either at the police district level or at the city level. The current study intends to investigate the relationship at lower levels of geographic aggregation.

Methods

Using Geographic Information System techniques, the current study utilized four radial buffer zones around each use of force incident location to measure the impact of neighborhood violent criminal activities at the micro level on the level of police force used. In addition, hierarchical linear modeling using neighborhood crime rates within police command areas allowed for a comparison study to measure the impact of neighborhood criminal activities at the meso level on police force.

Results

The current study found that neighborhood crime levels have a significant and positive effect of increasing the level of police force used at the micro level.

Conclusions

The current study supports the work of Black and Smith, concluding that more training and supervision are required for officers working in high crime areas.     

Local politics and police strength

Numerous studies have explored variation in police employment across cities, usually focusing on public choice, conflict, or organizational explanations. Yet, few consider whether the local political context affects police employment. Recent research suggests that local politics affects criminal justice outcomes. Using insights from urban politics research, I develop testable hypotheses about the effects of local political arrangements on municipal police strength. WLS regression results suggest the value of considering local political context in models of police strength. Specifically, in a sample of 945 cities with 25,000 or more residents in 1990, net of other variables, cities with unreformed political systems (mayor‐council forms of government, district‐based city councils and partisan elections) had more police employees per 1,000 residents, and this effect varied by region. Additionally, the effect of minority populations and crime rates on police strength varied across municipal political contexts. Implications for theories of police strength are discussed.     

The impact of agency context, policies, and practices on violence against police

This study examined agency-level factors that impact the level of violence against police. The independent variables represented both agency context (e.g., violent crime rate, population characteristics) and agency policies and practices (e.g., backup and body armor policies) and were linked to constructs within routine activities theory. Information on agency policies and practices came from an agency survey. Data for the dependent variable―agency counts of officer killings and assaults over a three-year period―came from the National Incident-Based Reporting System (NIBRS). Negative binomial regression was used to assess the impact of the independent variables on the dependent measure. Three of the independent variables—measuring body armor policies, agency accountability, and violent crime—had statistically significant relationships with violence against police.     

The politics of police reporting in Indianapolis, 1948–1978

Crime statistics from the Indianapolis Police Department are interpreted inlight of news reports and interviews. A shift from proactive enforcement (vice, traffic, and juvenile arrests) to reactive enforcement (taking citizen crime reports) begins in the mid-1950s. If they do report offenses, police are blamed for failing to control crime. Eventually, if they fail to report offenses, they are chided for being unresponsive to citizens. Even homicide statistics get manipulated as police are caught in political cross-pressures. It is concluded that police would be better off if relieved of responsibility for defining the size and shape of the crime problem.     

SPECIFICATION PROBLEMS,POLICE LEVELS,AND CRIME RATES*

Research on the relationship between police and crime, like many criminological topics, is subject to uncertain causal direction and omitted controls. We recommend procedures that mitigate these problems: the Granger causality test, proxies for missing variables, robustness checks, and making data available to other researchers. Because specification problems are common in the social sciences, this strategy has applicability beyond the issue of police and crime. We analyze yearly police data and UCR crime rates, at the state and city levels, pooled over two decades. We find Granger causation in both directions. The impact of crime on the number of police is slight, but the impact of police on most crime types is substantial. The latter result is more robust at the city level.     

More police,less crime: Evidence from US state data

Economic theory suggests police and crime are negatively correlated. However, it is surprisingly difficult to demonstrate this relation empirically, as areas with greater numbers of crimes tend to hire more police. In order to resolve this simultaneity, we begin by exploring the structure of the financial relationship existing between state and local governments, arguing that variations in state tax rates can serve as an instrumental variable for local police numbers. Two-stage least square (2SLS) result show that the elasticity of police presence with respect to crime is about ?1.1 for violent crime, and ?0.9 for property crime. These results are mostly significant, and are more negative than those obtained under OLS. Overall, our estimations suggest that police does reduce crime.     

Information,apprehension, and deterrence: Exploring the limits of police productivity

The capacity of police departments to solve crimes and apprehend offenders is low for many types of crime, particularly crimes of profit. This article reviews a variety of studies of police apprehension and hypothesizes that an important determinant of the ability of the police to apprehend criminals is information. The complete absence of information for many types of crime places fairly clear upper bounds on the ability of the police to effect solutions.To discover whether these boundaries are high or low we analyzed data from the 1973 National Crime Panel about the types and amount of information potentially available to police through victim reports and patrol activities. The evidence suggests that if the police rely on information made readily available to them, they will never do much better than they are doing now. On the other hand, there appears to be more information available to bystanders and passing patrols than currently is being used, which suggests that surveillance strategies and improved police methods for eliciting, recording, and analyzing information supplied by victims and witnesses might increase the probability of solving crimes and making arrests. In light of this we review a few possibly helpful innovations suggested in the literature on police productivity and procedure.     

Demeanor,sex, and race in police processing

Recent increases in arrests of women have stimulated much controversy about the causes and extent of female crime and created much speculation about the differential treatment of female offenders by police officers. This article reports an empirical study of police processing of female offenders. During September–December 1978, 282 questionnaires were completed by police officers and detectives in a large, metropolitan area in a southeastern state. Each officer was asked to indicate a police decision in five hypothetical situations which varied by types of offense, race of the offender, sex of the offender, and demeanor of the offender. An analysis of the responses of the police officers indicates that decisions of police are not contingent on the sex and race of the offenders. The major variables in determining how police officers will respond are the nature of the offense and the manner in which the offender behaves when confronted by the officer.     

The irony of broken windows policing: A micro-place study of the relationship between disorder, focused police crackdowns and fear of crime

In their seminal “Broken Windows” article in Atlantic Monthly, J. Q. Wilson and G. L. Kelling (1982) suggested that police could more effectively fight crime by targeting minor offenses. They hypothesized that untended disorder increases fear of crime in a community, starting a chain of events that eventually leads to heightened levels of crime. By targeting disorder, police can thus circumvent this cycle of neighborhood decline (Skogan, 1990). This study aimed to improve knowledge of the relationship between disorder and fear of crime in the context of the broken windows hypothesis by using a micro-place level research design involving a police crackdown on disorder and minor crime at hot spots. The results of the current study suggest that perceived social disorder and observed levels of physical disorder have a strong impact on fear of crime. This confirms the relationship between disorder and fear hypothesized by the broken windows literature, and implies that police may be able to reduce fear of crime by reducing disorder. It was also found, however, that the police intervention itself significantly increased the probability of feeling unsafe. Accordingly, any fear reduction benefits gained by reducing disorder may be offset by the fact that the policing strategies employed simultaneously increase fear of crime. These findings suggest the importance of a careful focus on “how” broken windows policing programs are implemented. Such programs must be geared not only to reduce disorder, but also to prevent increases in citizen fear that accompany crackdowns and other intensive enforcement efforts associated with broken windows policing.     

Ecological considerations in victim reporting to the police

A review of recent criminological literature suggests that different systems of social control operate across the urban-rural dimension. Specifically, it is expected that victims in urban areas will report crimes to the police at a higher rate than victims in surburban and rural areas. Moreover, it is anticipated that urban, suburban, and rural victims will have different reasons for not reporting the crime. In this paper these issues are examined empirically using the National Crime Survey victimization data. These data show that, contrary to theoretical expectations, the extent of victim reporting does not vary across the urban-rural dimension for the crimes of rape, robbery, assault, and personal larceny. Characteristics of the offense, notably seriousness, are shown to be more important in victim reporting than the extent of urbanization. In addition, these data indicate that victim residence in conjunction with type of crime and victim-offender relationship has an influence on the reasons selected by victims for not reporting the crime to the police.     

Community police crime prevention

This study examines the opinion of citizens regarding the police becoming a part of the community, by locating police station in all communities irrespective of size, in order to prevent crime from occurring. The results indicate that a significant number of residents interviewed would want the police to live and work in their community, be integrated into the school system, as well as participating in the community activities. An earlier version of this paper was read at the 1993 Annual Meeting of the Mid-South Sociological Association (Criminal Justice Section), Governor’s House Hotel, Montgomery, Alabama October 27–30, 1993. I would like to thank Professors Donald Yates and Salathiel Ansah, and the two anonymous reviewers for their helpful comments.     

Police training strategies and the role perceptions of police recruits

There has been much debate regarding basic police training and its effect on the attitudes of police recruits. Some critics argue that academy training creates negative attitudes in police recruits that favor arrest and crime attack orientations. The data presented in this article suggest that police recruits from a large urban police training program possess attitudes unfavorable toward crime attack or strict enforcement policing roles. The article examines a Los Angeles Police Department recruit training class, and the perceptions these recruits have toward selected policing roles. The study suggests police recruits do not perceive their role as simply being one of crime attack and strict enforcement.     

Hispanic perception of police performance: An empirical assessment

This exploratory study examines relationships between the police and Hispanics in Texas. Specifically, data were collected on Hispanic evaluations of police performance, expectations of police performance, and overall satisfaction with the police. A sample of 500 Hispanics throughout the state of Texas were surveyed on their experienced and perceived relationships with three levels of police agencies: local (municipal) police, sheriff's officers, and the state's Department of Public Safety. Findings are reported based upon overall ratings of the police, victim-related data, and data from individuals who had any form of contact with the police. Significant findings show that any form of contact with the police appeared to lower the rating of police performance. This appears to be a product of the interaction between high public expectations and qualitatively poor police performance. Further findings indicate that an increase in the fear of crime among Hispanics lowered evaluations of local police. Similarly, victimization lowered the evaluation of local police, the county sheriff, and the Department of Public Safety. Hispanics also perceived that officers have a “bad attitude,” that the police need to patrol and investigate more, that response time should be improved, and that there should be less discrimination against Hispanics. These findings appear to be largely influenced by ineffective communication (both symbolic and linguistic) and cultural conflict.     

Identifying changes in spatial patterns from police interventions: the importance of multiple methods of analysis

The policing initiative of foot patrol was implemented to reduce crime and disorder as well as benefit the relationship between the community and the police in the community of Lower Lonsdale, North Vancouver, British Columbia. In this paper, police incident data are analyzed to evaluate the impact of police foot patrol on the hot spots of crime in this community. Specifically, two spatial analysis techniques (kernel density estimation and local Moran’s I) are used to show how the nuances of changes in spatial crime patterns can emerge when multiple methods of analysis are used.     

A methodology for assessing citizen perceptions of police

This study was initiated to determine perceptions that Wichita community residents hold toward their police. A scale, Citizen's Perception of the Police, was developed. Race and dogmatism were examined as variables influencing perceptions. Non-white residents evaluated police less favorably than did whites. No significant difference was found on level of dogmatism in evaluating the police. The methodology for developing the scale is described. Applications of these methods to other communities was suggested as well as the importance of assessing citizen perceptions of the police to obtain data which will optimize the setting of goals for police-community relations programming.