Income,ouput and employment linkages and import intensities of manufacturing industries in India

The major thrust of planned development in India has been on employment and income generation and self‐reliance. The study evaluates ex‐post income, output and employment linkages and import intensities of manufacturing sectors using an input‐output model. It shows that among the four broad groups of industries, namely agrobased, non‐agrobased final goods, intermediate and capital goods, agrobased industries through technological interdependence, particularly backward linkages, generate relatively more income and employment and use less imported inputs. The non‐agrobased final goods industries with larger import requirements provide potential for income and employment generation if their required imported inputs are internalised.     

Agricultural Growth Linkages in Guatemala: New Insights from a Value Chain Approach

The agricultural growth linkage debate substantiates that agriculture contributes to economic growth through its linkages to other sectors. This paper contributes to the debate by combining a value chain approach with input-output-analysis. Results for Guatemala show that the sectors linked to agriculture are predominantly informal sectors and that these sectors create less value added, but more employment than formal sectors. It is also demonstrated that forward linkages are more important than backward linkages. In conclusion, agricultural linkages to forward sectors have a high potential to generate employment and value added and therefore should be supported by development policies.     

Improving local infrastructure finance in developing countries through grant-loan linkages: ideas from indonesia's water sector

In recent years, developing countries under fiscal pressure have increasing recognized significant weaknesses in their intergovernmental mechanisms for financing local infrastructure. Many countries are in the process of rationalizing poorly coordinated and subjectively allocated grant systems as well as loans. Such efforts, however, are typically undertaken independently of each other, often providing conflicting incentives for local fiscal behavior. I argue that the reform of grant and loan mechanisms should be explicitly linked to improve the overall effectiveness of the infrastructure finance system. The potential complications involved in designing grant-loan linkages, however, are considerable. I illustrate some key issues by examining the water sector in Indonesia, concluding with suggestions for how to think about creating such linkages in other sectors and countries.     

‘Effective exchange rates for exports in Pakistan’ a comment

In his article ‘Effective Exchange Rates for Exports in Pakistan’ [1972], Walter Hecox has incorrectly implied that the ranking of export sectors by their net foreign exchange earnings yield a measure of their export efficiency. This note argues that the proper measures for export ranking is the domestic resource cost criterion, and that rankings by the two measures differ substantially.     

Linkages and imports: A comparative study of India and Pakistan

This paper takes a critical look at the notion of linkages as guides to sectoral expansion in less developed countries. In particular a distinction is drawn between gross linkages (typically defined on the inverse of the Leontief technology matrix) and net linkages defined on the ‘domestic inverse’. It is argued that for economies which exhibit a persistent dependence on intermediate and capital goods imports, the latter may be the appropriate concept for identifying sources of induced economic development. Using data for India and Pakistan it is shown that the two concepts imply very different ranking of sectors, thus providing an important qualification for using gross linkages as a form of investment criterion.     

Terms of trade and class conflict in a computable general equilibrium model for Mexico

A computable general equilibrium model for Mexico is constructed in which class conflict over the distribution of the surplus is the principal determinant of the terms of trade. The model consists of seven social classes and eight productive sectors. Classes are distinguished as ‘fundamental’ or ‘subsumed’ according to whether their incomes are primarily determined by conscious class struggle or by the resulting system of relative prices. Flexible prices are assumed to clear markets for which non‐produced means of production, such as agricultural land, limit supply while output in the remaining sectors is determined by the level of effective demand. For the latter sectors, two theories of price formation are compared and are seen to differ radically in their implicit conception of the nature of class conflict. A ‘Keynes‐Kalecki’ closure is considered in which prices are determined by a fixed mark‐up on costs. This enables capitalists to protect themselves from incursions on the rate of profit due to labour militancy or state‐imposed terms‐of‐trade policy designed to favour peasants andlor the agrarian bourgeoisie. A second, ‘Marx‐Sraffian’ price closure constrains the economy to a wage‐profit‐terms‐of‐trade surface; where the economy conjuncturally resides on this surface depends upon the level of effective demand, wages and terms‐of‐trade policy. Various policy scenarios are investigated under both closures.     

Sustainable Development: Concepts and Rankings

One way of thinking about development - endorsed by the UNDP and the Brundtland Commission - involves improvements in the quality of life which are equitable. This conception invokes two values - equity and well-being - which can conflict. The potential conflict suggests that countries which are doing well in terms of well-being may perform badly on environmental concerns. Desai argued to the contrary that there are positive linkages between human development and environmental protection. He found tentative support for this claim in rankings of developing countries in terms of the HDI and indices of environmental exploitation. This result is not robust when similar exercises are carried out using a different set of countries and closely related indices.     

Poverty Effects from Trade Liberalisation in Argentina

This paper aims at analysing the linkages between trade liberalisation and poverty in Argentina. Under a specific-factors setting, a two-step procedure is presented. In the first stage the change in prices of goods and factors in both tradable and non-tradable sectors, after a trade liberalisation episode, is considered. In a second step, these variations are applied to assess the changes in poverty and household welfare. A micro simulation approach, using household survey data, is applied in this last stage. Poverty is reduced as a result of the policy and the households that benefit from this reduction are those linked to the non-tradable sectors.     

Industrial location in post-reform India: patterns of inter-regional divergence and intra-regional convergence

Where do new industrial investments locate, and what factors drive the industrial location decisions? Do these investments follow the model of ‘divergence followed by convergence’ suggested by the cumulative causation, agglomeration economies, and transport-costs approaches? These questions are examined with district-level data from India for the pre- and post-reform periods using: first, tables and maps of concentration and clustering, aggregated for all industry and disaggregated into five sectors (Heavy Industries, Chemicals and Petroleum, Textiles, Agribusiness, and Utilities), and second, logistic and OLS/Heckman selection regression models for these six elements. The data provide solid evidence both of inter-regional divergence and intra-regional convergence, and suggest that ‘concentrated decentralisation’ is the appropriate framework for understanding industrial location in post-reform India.     

Shock persistence in a dual economy model of India

This article examines shock persistence in agricultural and industrial output in India. Drawing on the dual economy literature, the linkages between the sectors through the terms of trade are emphasised. However, different dual economy models make differing assumptions regarding the categorisation of variables as being either endogenous or exogenous and this distinction is crucial in explaining the pattern of shock persistence. Using annual data for 1955–95, our results show that shocks to both output series are permanent while those to the terms of trade are transient.     

Policy analysis applications of remi economic forecasting and simulation models

This article surveys the ways that regional economic forecasting and policy analysis models have been used to provide information as an input for policy decision making in the public and private sectors. The major areas are as follows: forecasting and planning; economic development; transportation; energy and natural resources; taxation, budget, and welfare; United States policies; and environmental policies. The survey indicates that, while analysis and research may be required to prepare for a model simulation, the predicted economic effects of a policy can be very important information as an input for a wide range of policy decisions.     

Sectoral linkages at the beginning of the 21st century: The role of Polish economy in global production structures

This paper provides a first attempt in analyzing the role of Polish economy in the production structure of the global economy in the early years of the 21st century. For the purpose of this analysis, we propose a new approach in which two most important aspects of interindustry linkages in a global input-output model are examined. Contrary to previous studies focused on output-oriented key sector analyses in post-communist CEE economies, we focus on a fundamental policy target variable – income per gross output. In order to analyze the issues in question in a dynamic framework, the empirical results are based on the 2000 and 2014 global intercountry input-output tables for the 28 EU countries as well as 15 other major countries in the world.     

Evaluating impacts for competing land use alternatives

Public sector decisions concerning land use can benefit from a consistent accounting of economic values represented in alternative uses. While conventional economic valuation may not represent all interests bearing on optimal land use, ignorance or misuse of economic principles in the decision process may lead to socially undesirable outcomes. We make use of an impact assessment technique based on the U.S. Forest Service Micro IMPLAN model to compile and measure the economic consequences of alternative agricultural land use. This approach provides consistent measurement of economic impacts based on quantified linkages among the different sectors represented in Hood River County, Oregon. An orchard and a golf course are compared in terms of the magnitude and distribution of direct, indirect, and induced economic impacts arising from alternative uses of a designated land parcel. While the results are not generalizable to specific applications, the approach highlights the key economic variables that generate economic benefits in alternative uses.     

THE DIFFUSION OF PRIVATIZATION IN EUROPE: POLITICAL AFFINITY OR ECONOMIC COMPETITION?

Privatization has spread around the globe. While a number of studies find empirical evidence for the diffusion of privatization, it remains unclear what the relevant linkages between states are. This article analyses whether it is economic competition or political affinity that influences the diffusion of privatizing public utilities. The sample includes telecommunications, postal, and railway providers as the main network‐based utilities operating at the national level in 15 European countries from 1980 until 2007. The results of the spatial regressions clearly show that governments follow each other for economic reasons. Trading partners strategically interact when privatizing their national public‐utility providers to form strategic cross‐border company alliances and to avoid competitive disadvantages in the global market. This applies particularly to economies that are highly integrated in the international market. Surprisingly, political and ideological similarities do not seem to matter for the diffusion of privatization.     

Can Tourism Promote Inclusive Growth? Supply Chains,Ownership and Employment in Ha Long Bay,Vietnam

Inclusive growth is contested yet adopted by the World Bank to reduce poverty and inequality through rapid economic growth. Research has tested inclusive growth in sectors including agriculture, but few studies apply it to tourism which is significant for many developing countries. The paper interrogates tourism-led inclusive growth: supply chains, economic linkages/leakage, ownership, employment and expenditure. It draws from fieldwork in Vietnam where tourism has rapidly developed with partial economic benefits for local communities, but does not appear to fall within the inclusive growth paradigm. It is unclear if tourism-led growth will become any more inclusive in the short-to-medium term.     

THE STATE AND LOCAL GOVERNMENT FINANCE

The 'dual state' thesis provides a useful starting point in analysing the relationship between the central and local state. However the history of reform in local government finance suggests that the dual state approach underemphasizes a number of important features of the relationship. Notably the degree of diversity which exists between the interests displayed by different sectors of the central state, the vertical linkages which exist between national and local levels and the difficulty of pursuing coherent long term strategies in local finance.     

The terms of trade experience of Britain since the nineteenth century

The terms of trade of Britain exhibited a declining trend in the first half of the nineteenth century. But after two decades of transitional confusion, they started to move upwards. The explanation lies in the fact that the reversal of the trend corresponded to a change in the structure of British export trade from the dominance of traditional textile products towards other manufactures. Unlike the traditional textile products, these other manufactures had little indigenous counterpart in the agrarian countries with which Britain had expanding trade relations. So while cost reduction through technical progress led to a rapid fall in the prices of cotton textiles under stiff competition at home and abroad, producers in the newer sectors did not have to respond much to this type of cost‐reducing technical progress that spread to these sectors in the latter period. Thus, as Prebisch and Singer argued, the classical scheme of distribution of the gains from technical progress through trade that was supposed to have operated in the days of classical economists did not operate later on.     

Liberalisation,Multinational Enterprises and Export Performance: Evidence from Indian Manufacturing

This article tests two empirical hypotheses: one, MNE affiliates perform distinctly better than their local counterparts in the export markets in a globalised economy, and two, the MNE affiliates have greater comparative advantages in high-tech than in low- and medium-tech industries. Tobit estimates of a large data set of Indian manufacturing firms for the late 1990s provide relatively weak support to the first hypothesis. A disaggregated industry-group-wise analysis indicates that MNE affiliates perform no better than their local counterparts in high-tech industries. Thus, even with a higher level of integration with the global economy in the 1990s India appears to have failed in attracting efficiency-seeking FDI on a significant scale, particularly in high-tech industries. R&D and efficiency of manpower emerge as two significant determinants of international competitiveness in technology-based sectors (high- and medium-high tech sectors). Imports of raw materials enhance the export competitiveness of firms in all industry groups. Finally, large firms are found to be more export oriented, implying the need for creating large flagship companies in the country.     

Firm size,age and efficiency: Evidence from Kenyan manufacturing firms

Translog stochastic frontier production functions are estimated using an unbalanced panel of 235 Kenyan manufacturing firms in the food, wood, textile and metal sectors. The sectors are estimated individually in order to investigate whether technical efficiency is systematically related to the size and age of firms. The evidence suggests that firm size has a positive and significant effect in the wood and textile sectors. The age effect is less systematic, but is insignificant in all sectors, except textiles.     

Health scrutiny,democracy and integration: Part of the same jigsaw?

Set against the major restructuring of decision-making processes within local government and the wider modernisation agenda for public services, this paper suggests that the scrutiny process (specifically in relation to local authority health scrutiny) can be described in two analytically different, but not necessarily contradictory, ways. It could be seen as a process to increase the levels of local democracy or as a form of integration across different organisations/sectors. The article is informed from the first half of a three-year evaluation that includes interview and observational data from in-depth case study research in five local authorities and their associated Primary Care Trusts (PCTs). The research highlights examples of health scrutiny in terms of both democratic input and integration/joined-up working by organisations from different public sectors, to facilitate scrutiny reviews and resulting changes. It is suggested that further evaluation of the continued development of health scrutiny will be required to examine the potential longer-term impacts on local governance issues, partnership working and the health of the local population.