Thaksin Shinawatra and the reshaping of Thai politics

Twice elected prime minister of Thailand at the head of his Thai Rak Thai Party, telecommunications magnate Thaksin Shinwatra was controversial in office. Since his government was overthrown by a September 2006 military coup backed by the palace, conservatives, and a broad coalition of opponents, Thaksin has remained at the centre of Thailand's continuing political turmoil. This paper examines his political legacy, both in its positive and negative forms, through a focus on the nature of political parties and electoral policies in Thailand; the role of business interests in politics; the impact of Thaksin's politics on political activism and mobilisation; populism, social welfare, and the reaction of the middle class to welfare politics; Thaksin's confrontation with the elite and the monarchy; and the developing judicialisation of politics.     

A comparative analysis of the impact of the 1997 Asian crisis and the contemporary global economic crisis on the Korean political economy

The 1997 Asian crisis created a political space for neo-liberal reformers within the Korean state to advance a set of policies that had previously been frustrated. This agenda is widely seen to have stalled following an initial burst of neo-liberal reform in the post-crisis period. Several scholars have argued that a partial reconstruction of an economy dominated by a closed nexus between the state and leading domestic firms is taking place in contemporary Korea. Compared to the 1997 crisis the macroeconomic impact of the contemporary crisis on Korea has been limited. However, Korea initiated the largest fiscal stimulus (in relation to GDP) in the Organisation for Economic Co-operation and Development. In terms of the policy environment the impact of the contemporary crisis has been considerable. This paper argues that key aspects of the Korean state's response to the crisis represent a selective limited retreat from neo-liberalism, the significance of which should not be overstated.     

A Legitimate Paradox: Neo-liberal Reform and the Return of the State in Korea

This article examines the neo-liberal reforms that the Kim government implemented in post-crisis Korea. It argues that by embracing the reforms, the state, paradoxically, re-legitimised itself in the national political economy. The process of enacting the reforms completed the power shift from a collusive state-chaebol alliance towards a new alliance based on a more populist social contract - but one that nonetheless generally conformed to the tenets of neo-liberalism. Kim and his closest associates identified the malpractices of the chaebols as the main cause of the crisis, so reforming the chaebols would be the key to economic recovery. Combining populism and neo-liberalism, they drew on support from both domestic and international sources to rein in, rather than nurture, the chaebols.     

Between Decisiveness and Credibility: Transforming the Securities Industry in Singapore and Thailand

This article suggests a political party-centred explanation of economic policy reforms that differs significantly from the standard theoretical models that emphasise social coalitions, government systems, regime types or electoral cycles. The explanatory approach advanced here focuses on inter-party and intra-party organisational dimensions within an integrated analytical framework as the major determinants of both the decisiveness of policy reforms and the credibility of such reforms. A comparative analysis of government efforts to transform the securities industry in Singapore and Thailand provides preliminary evidence with which to explore the proposed causal linkage between the patterns of stock market reforms and the changing configurations of political parties.     

Authoritarian leaders and multiparty elections in Africa: How foreign donors help to keep Kenya's Daniel arap Moi in power

This article argues that prior accounts of Moi and KANU's re-election in Kenya's 1992 and 1997 polls overemphasise divisions within the opposition and underestimate the role of international actors. Drawing on interviews with central players and internal donor documents, the author demonstrates that aid donors played a central part not only in initially advancing the cause of multipartyism but subsequently also, on several occasions, actively impeding further democratisation. Donors twice knowingly endorsed unfair elections (including suppressing evidence of their illegitimacy) and repeatedly undermined domestic efforts to secure far-reaching political reforms, which were a prerequisite for an opposition victory and a full transition to democracy. In the face of anti-regime popular mobilisation, donors' primary concern appeared to be the avoidance of any path that could lead to a breakdown of the political and economic order, even if this meant legitimising and prolonging the regime's authoritarian rule.     

Illiberal Democrats versus Undemocratic Liberals: The Struggle Over the Future of Thailand's Fragile Democracy

Abstract

This article examines the inter-related factors that underpin the fragility of Thailand's democracy. Uneven economic development, the high levels of income inequality, and unequal access to power and resources are significant drivers of Thailand's ongoing political conflict. Social divides across classes and regions, and populist exploitation of the rural poor's sense of alienation from the traditional ruling elites, provide a volatile backdrop to national politics. In addition, Thailand's unstable political history and the weakness of liberal institutions present risks to its democracy. The army, the revered monarch and the judiciary comprise elites whose periodic interventions in politics and reservations about electoral democracy further render the Thai polity fragile. Thailand's political situation represents a ‘slow-burning’ crisis of democracy: a long-term historical confrontation developing slowly, with the fundamental issues unresolved. It is undergoing a period of social turmoil fuelled by a power struggle between competing material interests and by an ideational contest to determine the country's constitutive political rules. This can be conceptualised as a struggle for control of Thailand's future between a heterogeneous populist-capitalist movement of illiberal democracy and conservative forces of undemocratic liberalism.     

Political Economy of Modern Belarus: Going Against Mainstream?

A peculiar model of post-communist political economy has evolved in Belarus under President Aliaksandr Lukashenka. It features prioritisation of non-entrepreneurial social groups, a strong role for the state, and extensive social security provision. The model appears to be grounded on Lukashenka's understanding of his political powerbase; having no external backing for his policies, he wants to command as wide grass-roots support as possible to remain in office. By doing so, he rejects the principles of pluralist democracy and market economy, making Belarus's political economy model quite different from that envisaged in the mainstream post-communist theories of neo-liberalism and gradualism.     

Le marécage ou le Zaïre des années 1990

In 1985, in the previous special issue of the Canadian Journal of African Studies on Congo-Kinshasa, the author analyzed the situation in Zaire in the early 1980s, which he saw as marked above all by economic crisis. Here, in attempting to show the structural causes of the absolute paralysis of economic and political life in Congo today, he underscores the instability of domestic political life: the dictator has built instability into a system, and that system has poisoned the entire society.     

Democracy over power? The democratic decision-making process in the case of the attempted privatization of Estonia's power production

The suspense-filled attempted partial privatization of the Narva Power Plants in the neo-liberal darling Estonia involved a rich cast, from trade unions and local scientists, via Estonian courts and ombudsmen to international consulting firms, major global banks and the US government. More important, a detailed single case study on the democratic decision-making process in this privatization case makes it possible to go beyond common generalizations regarding the consequences of neo-liberalism for democratic processes. It shows that purported proponents of economic neo-liberalism such as the US government sometimes use their arguments to advance the narrow business interests of politically well-connected firms. Established private firms can behave in a more rent-seeking manner than publicly owned, ex-communist companies. Liberal economic principles of open competition and a level playing-field are at times used by actors in the democratic process to question top-down, opaque economic decisions.     

Domestic actors and liberalization: a case study of internal and external pressures in Moi's Kenya

The diffusion of political and economic liberalization to countries all across the world over the last 30 years has raised questions about the influence of domestic and international actors. Most scholars have given credit to international actors such as the USA, Western European countries, the International Monetary Fund (IMF), and the World Bank for the spread of liberalization or any political openness and/or market-oriented reform. Their external-actors-focused explanations have been almost exclusively at the expense of domestic actors. They have essentially viewed domestic actors as simply receivers of liberalizing change or incapable of initiating reform. As a result, international development policies and programs have tended to focus on what these external actors can do to force other countries to liberalize. While recognizing the influence of these external actors, this article reverses this emphasis and notes that the focus should be on internal actors and factors, primarily social movements/groups and opposition political polities that are agitating for reform. This article is a case study on Kenya that shows how domestic factors and actors pressured the Moi government to embrace reform starting in the 1980s.     

Democracy,economic crisis and the problem of governance: The case of Bolivia

This article examines the political context within which the Bolivian government of Víctor Paz Estenssoro (1985–1989) launched, implemented, and sustained a draconian neoliberal economic stabilization program. The article argues that the key to the successful economic program was the political skill and leadership of President Paz, in particular, his ability to negotiate a political pact with the main opposition party. Finally, the article ponders the tensions and contradictions between neoliberal economic policies and the process of consolidating democracy in a context of extreme economic crisis. James M. Malloy is professor of political science and research professor, University Center for International Studies, University of Pittsburgh, Pittsburgh, PA 15260. He is the author of a number of books and articles on Latin America politics, includingAuthoritarians and Democrats: Regime Transition in Latin America (University of Pittsburgh Press, 1987). He is presently working on issues of regime transition, economic adjustment, and the role of private sector interest groups in Latin America.     

Development Strategy and Export-Led Growth: Lessons Learned from Taiwan's Experience

This paper investigates Taiwan's development strategy from both demand-side (policies that bias production incentives against domestic market demand and toward exports) and supply-side (policies that favour tradable against service or non-tradable sectors) perspectives. In the early stages of Taiwan's economic development, the strategy mix increased overall factor productivity by reallocating resources from the less productive (service or domestic) sectors to the more productive (manufacturing or exporting) ones and helped achieve the goal of reaching global markets through the exploitation of comparative advantage. However, as the Taiwanese economy developed, government intervention turns out to be ineffective because of how it distorts resource allocation, in particular a neglect of services sectors.     

China's Engagement with Neo-liberalism: Path Dependency,Geography and Party Self-Reinvention

China's post-Mao market reform, even after the Asian crisis, does not conform to the standard IMF/World Bank model and the state continues to mediate market reform. Three principal factors have influenced how the state mediates China's market reform: path dependency, a result of China's communist and nationalist revolution; China's geography, which favours developmental-state-type industrialisation; and most important of all, the Chinese Communist Party's successful post-Mao self-reinvention that has enabled it to remain in power as a monopolistic party. These factors determine that China's engagement with neo-liberalism will be a loose hug rather than an intimate embrace.     

Agency conflict and the signalling snafu in the mexican peso crisis of 1994

In this paper I explore the role of signalling in the agency conflict that pits national governments against international lenders in the Mexican peso crisis of 1994. (The term international lenders includes domestic residents with the capacity to invest abroad.) I give evidence for the conventional conclusion that Mexico's underlying economic and financial situation did not warrant the humiliating treatment inflicted on it by the international financial markets. The humiliating treatment, however, was not a mindless overreaction to suddenly perceived changes in the country's political fragility. On the contrary, I show that the country's evolving political fiagility was recognized and compensated for as far back as 1991. It was rather the result of a rational reevaluation of the costs of the agency conflict that is inherent in the relationship between national governments and international lenders and the power of national governments through moratoriums, repudiation, or default to subordinate the claims of international lenders to those of domestic agents. I model the conflict as a government held option to default and introduce signalling by assuming that the Mexican government had monopolistic information on the economy's true situation. I then give evidence that the agency costs were reevaluated when it became clear that the Mexican government had been sending false signals to the international investment community and that these false signals had made it possible for Mexico to borrow close to or beyond the point where default was the optimal financial strategy.     

Prospects for Managed Democracy in Russia

The 2003 Duma election resulted in the victory of the party of power, thereby strengthening managed democracy in Russia. Since then, political trends in Russia's regions and rural politics provide considerable evidence of the increasing ability of pro-Kremlin forces to maximise their electoral fortunes in national contests. These political trends make it likely that United Russia will not only emerge as the dominant party in the 2007 Duma election, but will provide the Kremlin and Putin's successor with a compliant lower house. The outcome is that Putin's successor will find the political infrastructure to continue managed democracy.     

Peasant participation and mobilization during economic crisis: The case of Costa Rica

During the three decades prior to the 1980s, the state-led development policies pursued by Costa Rica created a standard of living that was unique in Central America and among the most satisfactory in all of Latin America. However, the economic crisis of the early 1980s and the problems created by Costa Rica's foreign debt caused the nation's political and economic leaders to abandon the previous style of development and to the introduce neoliberal economic policies. The economic changes undertaken by Costa Rica in the 1980s were strongly supported by the International Monetary Fund, the World Bank, and the U.S. Agency for International Development (USAID). Among the social sectors most adversely affected by the opening to the international market were the small independent producers of basic grains and other agricultural crops primarily destined for the internal market. These peasant sectors were largely unorganized prior to the 1980s and they intensified their organizational efforts in direct response to what was viewed as the negative impact of the new economic policies. This article examines the economic crisis that engulfed Costa Rica in the early 1980s as well as the economic stabilization and structural adjustment programs that succeeded in easing the crisis and that will define the direction of development efforts in the 1990s. The bulk of the article investigates the attempts of the peasanty to organize and mobilize in order to influence the political system and to protect their economic interests. Costa Rica's principle peasant organizations are discussed and reasons are offered to explain the failure of peasant efforts to influence the formation of development policy. Gregg L. Vunderink recently received his Ph.D. in political science from the University of Texas at Austin. The recipient of a Fulbright-Hays research abroad award, the author conducted research in Costa Rica and Nicaragua in 1987 and 1988. He is currently a visiting assistant professor at St. Olaf College in Northfield, Minnesota 55057.     

Mercosur: the road to economic integration in the southern cone

This review of the historical record of economic integration in southern South America demonstrates that while MERCOSUR is very much an outgrowth of historical attempts at Latin American political and economic integration, and closely follows on the bilateral Argentina-Brazil accords of the mid-1980s, it also represents an adaptation to the contemporary political climate. The political process through which MERCOSUR was pursued and the emphasis on regional cooperation is reminiscent of the traditional rhetoric and strategy associated with Latin American integration attempts. Yet, the form and timing of its growth has clearly been influenced by international events and conditioned by current trends toward free markets and neo-liberal economic policies. As such, MERCOSUR represents the current set of public policies which define the new competitive environment for business in the Southern Cone.     

Persistence and renewal: the German Left Party's journey from outcast to opposition

This article examines electoral support for the German Left Party (Die Linke) at the 2013 Federal election. It focuses on two substantive issues. The first is that whilst studies have commonly linked the party's support to political culture, the party has modernised and it is unclear how this has influenced its support. The second is that the election was held amidst the fallout of the global financial crisis and thus enables us to test if the party benefitted from economic adversity. Using multivariate logistic regression models, these issues are investigated at the individual-level using data from the German Longitudinal Election Study. The results demonstrate that the party's support is steeped in political culture, but with important east–west variation. Further, there is no evidence that the party attracted support from economically anxious voters. These findings present a basis for broader reflections on the party's influence on the contemporary political landscape.