Evaluating the economic impact of a special credit programme: KIK/KMKP in Indonesia

This article discusses a study of the economic impact of Indonesia's KIK/KMKP programme of special credits for small‐scale enterprises. Our major focus is on how to measure economic impact. It discusses the concept of ‘impact’, the survey design, the statistical framework, and the practical problems of implementation, and briefly summarises the findings. We believe that our methodology generated reasonably reliable data and fundamentally sound estimates of the credit programme's direct impact on employment, output and income.     

Environmental attitudes and concerns of the environmental protection bureaucrats in guangzhou,people's republic of china: Implications for environmental policy implementation

This article analyzes the questions of implementation failure in environmental policy in China. Using empirical data collected in Guangzhou, People's Republic of China, die article documents the environmental attitude of Guangzhou's Environmental Protection bureaucrats. In interpreting the data, the article seeks to assess and evaluate the present state of environmental administration in China. This article provides evidence that although China has made much progress in developing environmental legislation and a regulatory framework, the economic growth and devolution of power unleashed by reforms have also created new environmental stresses and, to some extent, reduced the regulatory capabilities of governments in China.     

Who Supports Nuclear Armament in Japan? Threat Perceptions and Japan's Nuclear Armament

The security environment in East Asia has been going through drastic changes. As China and North Korea pose a serious threat to Japan, the Japanese are now more concerned about the security issue in the region. Recognizing the highly volatile situation Japan is facing, the purpose of this study is to examine the issue of nuclear proliferation by focusing on people's attitudes in Japan. More specifically, it systematically analyzes the factors that can determine people's opinions of nuclear weapons by utilizing the survey data. The result of the statistical analysis suggests that threat perceptions significantly boost people's support for nuclear armament. Advancing our understanding of nuclear proliferation from a unique perspective, this study makes an important contribution to the literature, thus helping us predict Japan's security policy.     

The threat of polluted air and the policies to control the problem in the Seoul metropolitan area

Air pollution is a serious problem in the Seoul Metropolitan area and other major urban centers in Korea. Heavy concentration of industries, a large population in excess of 11 million in high density, and an explosive growth of automobiles have contributed to air pollution in Seoul along with the neglect of environmental issues in the process of industrial and social changes. Although the official statistical data do not show that air pollution has reached a critical level, a survey data of public opinion indicates that a concern for environmental pollution is serious.

The central government of Korea has taken some major policy measures to address the environmental pollution problem. The government expenditures for environmental programs have significantly increased throughout the 1980's. The government has adopted policies to switch fuels for industrial, commercial, and domestic use from high pollution coals and heavy oil to nonpolluting natural gas. The government has adopted incentive programs to offer economic benefits to those buying electric cars and cars running on compressed natural gas or alcohol.

It is not clear how effective these policy measures will be in curbing environmental pollution. But it is clear that the choice of the citizens for a new life style which is environmentally clean is a new imperative for survival in the same way as economic development at any cost was the imperative for economic survival in the 1960's and the 1970's.     

Sanction experience and sanction behavior: an analysis of Chinese perception and behavior on economic sanctions

This paper seeks to explore the interrelationship between a country's sanction experience, perception, and behavior. The analysis focuses on the case of China, which is one of very few countries that have not only undergone a number of significant economic sanctions but also have experience of imposing economic sanctions upon others. All historical cases of major economic sanctions against China, as well as cases of Chinese economic sanctions against other countries, are examined. A comparison between China's sanction experience and sanction behavior points to a connection between the two: all strategic sanctions in history against China failed, and correspondingly, China rarely employed strategic sanctions against others. In parallel, most tactical sanctions against China were successful, and coincidentally, China has been much more open to using or threatening to use tactical sanctions in its own practice. The findings of this analysis offer an opportunity for Western policy practitioners to reconsider their approach of engaging China in order to improve future coordination and cooperation in multilateral economic sanctions.     

Rethinking the Economic Relationship between Kazakhstan and Russia

According to their governments, economic relations between Kazakhstan and Russia—the two largest post-Soviet countries—have been exceptionally solid and robust. However, statistical data demonstrate that Russian investments in Kazakhstan's economy have been weak, and that Kazakhstan has only recently increased investment in the Russian economy. This raises the question of whether relations between the two countries have been more uneven than has been claimed officially. The article also explores the influence of off-shore investments via third countries and other aspects of the bilateral relationship between Kazakhstan and Russia and the involvement of each country in the other's economy.     

The “Tibet question”: Tibetan,Chinese and Western perspectives

The historical conflict between Tibet and China goes back almost a thousand years. Both sides use history to argue their point about the core issues in this dispute – Tibet's claim of independence and autonomy, and China's of suzerainty. This article looks at the historical roots of this conflict, particularly since 1949, when China began its gradual takeover of Tibet. Chinese policies toward Tibet, which have been driven by a desire to communize and sinicize Tibet, has been met by stiff resistance from the Tibetans, who see Han Chinese dominance as a force that will, over time, destroy Tibet's unique religion, language, culture, and history. This resistance has drawn the attention of the West, who see Chinese policies in Tibet as a symbol of the failings of Beijing's rulers to embrace a strong commitment to human rights at the same time that China is becoming a global economic power. The 14th Dalai Lama, a key figure in this conflict, and his government-in-exile have served as bridges to Western efforts to try to force Beijing to embrace more open, humane policies toward Tibetans throughout China. His retirement as political head of the exile government in 2011, coupled with China's growing economic and strategic power globally, raises serious questions about the willingness of the USA, and other democratic powers to risk their relationships with Beijing to continue to promote true human rights and autonomy throughout the Tibetan Plateau.     

China: alternative futures

What alternatives are available to China in the next one or two decades? `More of the same' is not a likely scenario, because one-party rule is not optimal for coping with the challenges of modernization and global interdependence. A second model, Singapore's authoritarian capitalism, appeals to many CCP leaders. But Singapore's scale and way of life are so different that its example cannot be very relevant to China. Nor does the Soviet imperial model fit, because China does not suffer from imperial overreach as did the USSR. The post-Soviet Russian model—a move from rigid hierarchy to free enterprise anarchy—could await China. Both countries have lacked institutions of civil society that could stabilize the country if central authority collapses. Another alterative would be a return to regionalism, spurred by economic and ethnic differences within China. Some PRC leaders hope to find a Chinese way that transcends other models, but this is not realistic. The most useful model for China and the world would be a gradual transition from authoritarianism to multi-party democracy, as has taken place in Taiwan. In one or two decades, China could edge in that direction. If so, animosities between the mainland and Taiwan would also diminish, removing a thorn from U.S.–Chinese relations. Opportunities for mutual gain may then overshadow present tensions.     

Economic interest or security concerns? Which affected how individuals in five Asian countries—Indonesia,Japan, Malaysia,the Philippines,and South Korea—viewed China in 2013?

With rapid economic growth, China has become its neighbours’ largest trade partner in the twenty-first century. At the same time, the growth of China’s military and its assertiveness are raising concerns among its neighbours that China’s rise will pose a threat to them. In this context, will China’s neighbours—Indonesia, Japan, Malaysia, the Philippines, and South Korea—view China positively or negatively? By using statistical analysis, this paper aims to explore whether individuals are more affected by their economic position or national security concerns when they view China. The findings in this article suggest that individuals’ security concerns have stronger associations with their attitudes toward China than economic conditions. Specifically, individuals’ views on China’s military growth and territorial disputes had negative effects on their attitudes toward China. On the other hand, economic interests had weaker associations with individuals’ views of China than security concerns.     

The adaptation of Taiwan's administrative organizations to its economic development

Since moving its seat to Taiwan in 1949, the government of the Republic of China has been able to resume its efforts towards national reconstruction on this island at an accelerated speed. Because of rapid political, economic, and social developments in recent decades, Taiwan's political environment is quite different from what it was previously. In changing from continental to island, national to local, and agricultural to industrial, the public's demands have changed significantly. Under Taiwan's current political and economic situation, what course of development should Taiwan's administrative organizations follow? What kind of self- adaptation to this changing environment should Taiwan's administrative system take? This article describes Taiwan's current administrative environment and operation from a physical and cultural setting. Its ways of adaptation are examined as well must be reasonable and rational. Restated, measures to change the quality of governmental services, governmental expense, the taxes the citizens pay, and the services citizens receive should be taken rationally (¹).     

Rangeland Degradation in North China Revisited? A Preliminary Statistical Analysis to Validate Non-Equilibrium Range Ecology

Over the past decades, the concepts of carrying capacity and Clementsian vegetation succession have come under attack from the theory of Non-Equilibrium Range Ecology. The new theory hypothesises that in arid regions with high rainfall variability the ecology is mainly determined by climatic and not biotic factors, such as animal grazing. The argument carried further implies that 'rangeland degradation' or 'desertification' are not caused by overgrazing but are part of a natural process of vegetation decline and growth in response to rainfall, which ruminant numbers merely follow. Few empirical studies involving time-series data have been executed to substantiate Non-Equilibrium Range Ecology. This article, hopes to make a contribution to the current debate with a statistical validation of one of its main postulates: the correlation between ruminant numbers and rainfall. The analysis is conducted with figures from the People's Republic of China: a state in which rangeland policy is an outstanding example of management on the basis of carrying capacities and Clementsian succession theory.     

Why China Won't Follow Arab Revolt

Do China's mandarins have anything to fear from the winds of freedom that have blown away Arab autocrats? The short answer is no—for now. The Chinese government has performed for its people, lifting hundreds of millions out of poverty during the same length of time Hosni Mubarak reigned in Egypt. Though many in the West would like to think so, it is not likely that the rising middle class in China will one day also fill Tiananmen Square in protest. In the immediate future, the chaos and economic drift that will now engulf the liberated Middle East will remind them again that China was right not to go down the path of Gorbachev's glasnost and perestroika in Russia. And it is not as if they will have a chance. The authorities are determined never to allow any two people who vent virtually on the Net to meet in the street. In this section, we discuss the impact of the Arab revolt—and lack of it—on China's system of governance.     

The Rise of India: Overcoming Caste Society and Permit-License-Quota Raj,Implementing Some Economic Freedom

Two or three centuries ago most of mankind was still very poor. When the West outgrew mass poverty, India was a British colony and suffered from stagnation. When East Asian economies exploited the advantages of backwardness and benefited from export-led growth, India remained inward-looking and poor. The ‘Hindu rate of growth’ preserved mass poverty. Since the reforms of the early 1990s India has exploited the advantages of backwardness and some global markets. In this article, the roots of India's failure to grow rapidly before the end of the twentieth century are analyzed. Stagnation is blamed on restrictions of economic freedom, whereas growth is explained by the expansion of economic freedom. Before the mid-twentieth century, the caste system and the legacy of sultanism curtailed economic freedom and contributed to economic stagnation. Thereafter, democratic socialism distorted incentives and generated ‘permit-license-quota raj’ or a rent-seeking society. When some obstacles to growth were dismantled, vigorous growth followed. Although expanding economic freedom remains limited. India's growth potential is not yet fully exploited. Indian infrastructure and human capital formation remain inadequate, regulations intrusive, and the budget in deficit. The rule of law looks better on paper than from the ground. Compared to China Indian public policy still has a lot of room for improvements. ‘Maoists’ or Naxalites threaten political stability and economic freedom. Geopolitics may explain India's late, slow and incomplete reforms. The rise of Asia, in particular of China and India, generates geopolitical challenges of its own. Conceivably, the global expansion of economic freedom permits not only the rise of Asia, but the peaceful management of the coming power transition between Asia and the West.     

China's “Color Revolution” Is Red

Do China's mandarins have anything to fear from the winds of freedom that have blown away Arab autocrats? The short answer is no—for now. The Chinese government has performed for its people, lifting hundreds of millions out of poverty during the same length of time Hosni Mubarak reigned in Egypt. Though many in the West would like to think so, it is not likely that the rising middle class in China will one day also fill Tiananmen Square in protest. In the immediate future, the chaos and economic drift that will now engulf the liberated Middle East will remind them again that China was right not to go down the path of Gorbachev's glasnost and perestroika in Russia. And it is not as if they will have a chance. The authorities are determined never to allow any two people who vent virtually on the Net to meet in the street. In this section, we discuss the impact of the Arab revolt—and lack of it—on China's system of governance.     

Energy and Enterprise in Liu Hongsheng's Cement and Coal-Briquette Businesses, 1920–1937

The cement and coal-briquette manufacturing enterprises founded by Chinese capitalist Liu Hongsheng (1888–1956) during the 1920s and 1930s illustrate the potential of perspectives from the field of energy history to enrich our understanding of the interface between business and environment in modern China. Through his involvement in coal marketing and distribution during the early twentieth century, Liu Hongsheng promoted and profited from China's nascent transition to an energy regime powered by fossil fuels. With the establishment of his cement and coal-briquette companies, Liu also devised ways to profitably reuse and exploit by-products from his coal businesses as a source of energy for other forms of industrial production. More broadly, this analysis of the ecological linkages among Liu Hongsheng's business ventures situates them in relation to the interlocking systems of technology, infrastructure, energy sources, and institutions that facilitated the initial emergence of fossil-fueled economic growth in China during the interwar period.     

Civilisational values and political economy beyond the West: the significance of Korean debates at the time of its economic opening

This paper analyses the prominence of civilisational values in Korean political economy debates in the late 19th and early 20th centuries concerning their country's dramatic opening to the world economy at the time. Korean supporters of economic opening saw this policy change as part of a wider embrace of Western civilisational values, while opponents argued that their country's longstanding economic autarchy upheld traditional Neo-Confucian civilisational values that had been imported from China. For international political economy (IPE) scholars interested in the historical relationship between civilisational values and political economy, the analysis shows how these values shaped understandings of international economic relations outside the West in quite distinctive ways. For IPE scholars interested in the diffusion of ideas, the analysis highlights different dynamics involved in the ‘localisation’ of ideas emanating from dominant powers. More generally, the study of this Korean history also contributes to the building of a more ‘inter-civilisational’ approach to IPE today.     

Is It Ideology or Desperation: Why Do Organizations Deploy Women in Violent Terrorist Attacks?

Why do some terrorist organizations deploy women on the front lines and in violent attacks? This study explores the social conditions, economic factors, and organizational characteristics that might explain women's participation in violent terrorist activity. With a new data set of 395 terrorist organizations, women's participation in terrorist attacks was quantified and coded. The logistic regression analysis results suggest that women's educational attainment, social rights, terrorist organization's age and size, and the level of a country's economic development are important predictors of the deployment of women in terrorist violence while a terrorist group's ideological or religious orientation and the level of democracy do not significantly influence the likelihood of women's participation.     

Security Through Sociology: The North Caucasus and the Global Counterinsurgency Paradigm

The global counterinsurgency strategy to combat terrorism emphasizes responding to the social and economic needs of communities where terrorists may find support. Public opinion data can help in that strategy, as shown by a 2006 survey of 1,200 young males from three provinces in Russia's North Caucasus. Conventional wisdom notwithstanding, the survey shows few signs of burgeoning radical Islam or ethnic animosity. Instead, economic conditions and poor governance are primary concerns. The region provides both an opportunity and threat: policymakers can and should address the region's needs; if not, radical Islamist groups can turn it into a flashpoint for terrorism.     

Economic agendas old and new and chinese administrative reform

Facing new agenda economic development issues, China like other developing states is forced to coordinate policies regionally. As need for decentralization “downward” stretches to include delegation “outward,” Beijing must find its best response to the new trend. Four tests reveal no reason for China to stay aloof from simple Membership in Pacific-Asian regional organizations. Three tests reveal no problem with China taking an Activist role in such regional organizations. Three final tests reveal potential costs China would pay for seeking a regional Leadership role, especially before Beijing's post-succession direction is determined.     

THE SPATIAL LEGACY OF INFORMAL EMPIRE: OIL,THE SOVIET UNION,AND THE CONTOURS OF ECONOMIC DEVELOPMENT IN CHINA'S FAR WEST

Abstract

Beginning in the 1930s, Soviet geologists, engineers, and economic planners began laying the infrastructure of informal empire in China's westernmost province of Xinjiang. Seeking to gain access to its rich petroleum wealth in particular, these Soviet state agents helped create a blueprint for state investment and development in Xinjiang that continues to resonate today. Confronting the substantial Soviet investment in the province and driven by a border policy intent on minimizing capital expenditures for distant peripheries, economic planners in the Republic of China and the People's Republic alike relied heavily on Soviet reports, technology, and infrastructure in their own economic development plans. In the end, the efforts of Chinese and Soviet planners, often working in collaboration, helped create an enduring pattern of state investment in Xinjiang. Focusing on oil extraction, processing, and transport operations in Xinjiang, this work reveals the long-term resonances of informal empire in Chinese border regions.