Security: Missing from the Northern Ireland Model

The Northern Ireland model is best defined as the framing of the political endgame of Northern Ireland’s conflict culminating in the 1998 Belfast Agreement, otherwise known as the Good Friday Agreement. The Northern Ireland model is popularly portrayed as a negotiated settlement. It focuses primarily on the bargain reached by Northern Irish political parties, assisted by British and Irish governments and mediated by US senator George Mitchell. Academics and officials alike use it to explain how the “Troubles” ended and peace was achieved. Conspicuously absent from this model is security. It also grossly understates the difficulty in dealing with a modern insurgency (the Provisionals) and leans too heavily toward skewed post-conflict thinking that views insurgents as “peacemakers” prevented from making peace because of a manifestly poor security response, particularly that of the police force and its intelligence agency (Special Branch). The perspective of politicians and diplomats who brokered the peace settlement prioritizes political negotiations at the expense of the security response; in so doing, the role of security is undermined and overlooked. Most contemporary academic works promote this outlook. Excluding security, however, thwarts a comprehensive analysis of the Northern Ireland conflict and renders any examination partial and unrepresentative. There is therefore a significant intellectual gap in our understanding of how peace was achieved, which this article redresses. Ultimately, it questions the Northern Ireland model’s capacity to assist in other relevant conflict contexts in any practical sense by arguing that a strategy where security pushed as politics pulled brought about peace. In other words, security played a crucial part because it forced the main protagonists into a situation out of which the Belfast Agreement emerged.     

Alternative Ulster? Political Parties and the Non-constitutional Policy Space in Northern Ireland

This article uses data from a survey of the candidates in the 2003 Northern Ireland Assembly election to measure the policy positions of the Northern Irish political parties on scales that are the usual measurements of party policy in Western Europe, such as on economic and social issues, the European Union, morality issues, environmental issues and minority groups. These data were then used to test whether the Northern Ireland party system was conducive to integration or consociationalism, which is the current debate on conflict resolution in Northern Ireland. It argues that this debate has been under-theorised and that empirical data can be used to test the likelihood of either scenario. It concludes that, in most aspects, the Northern Ireland party system tends towards the consociational scenario but there are, nevertheless, aspects which suggest that an integrationist scenario could be produced in the long term.     

Scotland's Sectarianism Problem: Irish Answers?

A series of developments during the 2010–11 football season has led to an intense public debate over the question of the nature and extent of religious sectarianism in Scotland. The Scottish National Party (SNP) government has responded with a new piece of legislation which has been widely criticised and has prompted some commentators to speculate about a political ‘own goal’. This article provides a guide to the debate around sectarianism and its historical and political dimensions. It also suggests that the Irish roots of the problem in Scotland should be properly acknowledged, and that a possible way forward could involve cooperation between Scotland, Northern Ireland and the Republic of Ireland within the structures and procedures of the British–Irish Council (BIC).     

The Anglo‐Irish Agreement: 25 Years On

This article examines the surprisingly muted commemoration of the 25th anniversary of the Anglo‐Irish Agreement. It was surprising because not only was the Agreement a major innovation in relations between the two states but it was also the defining political issue in Northern Ireland for almost a decade. It is argued that the significance of the Agreement has been diminished because of retrospective narratives which serve the political convenience of the key parties to the Northern Ireland conflict. The article adapts Oakeshott's notion of the ‘dry wall’ to re‐assess and to re‐state the Agreement's place in recent history.     

The dimensions of Fianna fail rule in Ireland

Politics in the Irish Republic derives its special party orientation from a bitterly‐contested civil war waged relatively early in the nation‐state's history. In Ireland, as in America, the loser in the civil war has turned out to be the most successful political party. Fianna Fail is a national coalition of regions, interests, and classes which has rarely been out of power thanks to the professionalism of its electoral machine and its understanding of the importance of localism in Irish politics. Until recently, Irish political expectations were relatively low. Today, in the wake of major cultural and economic change, nascent class conflict may challenge the conservative status quo.     

‘New dissidents are but old Provisionals writ large’? The Dynamics of Dissident Republicanism in the New Northern Ireland

This article discusses recent developments in dissident Irish republicanism and some of the arguments advanced to explain its emergence as a factor in Northern Irish politics. In particular it considers those explanations which define these new armed groups as either the latest manifestation of a historically determined Irish republican tradition or simply as ‘residual terrorist groups’ left behind by Provisional republicanism's movement into the constitutional mainstream in the 1990s. It rejects these arguments as ahistorical and schematic, and instead suggests that the dynamics and trajectory of dissident republicanism are shaped instead by the inherent tensions and structures of ‘the new Northern Ireland’. It goes on to compare the contemporary political, social and economic forces that produce the dissidents with the conditions that created the Provisionals as in the early 1970s and concludes that whilst these new groups will continue to pose a threat to the ‘normalization’ of the new dispensation they will not be successful as their republican forebears in mobilizing a significant and sustained challenge to the Northern Irish state.     

The Future of Northern Ireland: the Role of the Belfast/Good Friday Agreement Institutions

Since the 2016 Brexit referendum a series of crises has gripped Northern Ireland's politics. This has had a destabilising effect across society, which has arguably been felt most acutely by political unionism. The Belfast/Good Friday Agreement (B/GFA) of 1998 created a series of institutions to deal with political conflict in Northern Ireland, manage cross-border cooperation and normalise relations between the UK and Ireland. However, many aspects of it have been sparingly and ineffectually deployed, most notably the second and third strands dealing with north/south and east/west relations respectively. In this article, the authors argue that regular use of the institutional arrangements created by the Agreement would help to deal with the challenges currently facing Northern Ireland and help address unionist anxieties over the Protocol. Use of the North-South Ministerial Council (NSMC), the British Irish Council (BIC) and the British-Irish Intergovernmental Conference (BIIGC) should be prioritised. The unresolved issues arising from Brexit require a recommitment to the intergovernmental logic at the heart of the 1998 Agreement, despite the obstacles.     

Gender Ghosts in McGarry and O'Leary and Representations of the Conflict in Northern Ireland

This article focuses on how ideas about gender function in academic analyses of the conflict in Northern Ireland. Part of the reason for doing this is to explore the paradox afflicting contemporary feminism, namely that in the midst of apparent success feminism still seems largely irrelevant to matters of political significance. A second reason involves a demonstration of the political value of poststructural feminism. To achieve these aims, I first consider the use and political aims of poststructuralist analyses, partly through an analysis of the use of poetry in social scientific analyses. The main site used to demonstrate the functions of gender and the political possibilities of poststructural feminism is John McGarry and Brendan O'Leary's book Explaining Northern Ireland: Broken Images . The sub-title of this book refers to a Robert Graves' poem, 'In Broken Images', a poem the authors use to explain their desire to 'break images' when explaining the conflict in Northern Ireland. I next reflect on and illustrate how ideas about gender function by focusing primarily on Explaining Northern Ireland: Broken Images . The final section re-considers the paradox of contemporary feminism, suggesting that feminism's own methodologies contribute towards its persistent marginalisation.     

Republicanism Domesticated? All‐Ireland Politics in an Age of Austerity

This paper examines some of the key factors working in favour of mutual insulation between the two political jurisdictions in Ireland, factors that contribute to the ‘copper‐fastening’ of partition and that constitute a major obstacle to any Irish Republican project focused on the ending of partition. It outlines the powerful structural forces working for the naturalisation of Northern Ireland as a political unit. It argues that some of these factors are almost entirely independent of political unionism and in certain respects work to copperfasten partition despite the efforts of unionism. It goes on to outline a number of key elements that work against the mutual insulation of the jurisdictions and the domestication of Irish Republican and nationalist politics in a Northern Ireland context, factors that continue to pull the North back into an all‐Ireland context despite all of the powerful structural factors working to mutually insulate the politics of the two jurisdictions.     

Red green prospects in Ireland

“Ireland is the “Emerald Isle” in popular imagination. There is certainly some truth in this, since of all European countries the Republic of Ireland is the least ecologically ravaged. Ireland has been spared many of the ecological problems that afflict other Western capitalist countries due principally to its relatively underindustrialized nature. It is therefore a rather special case in the general development of red!green political dialogue of the type that typifies the realignment of European oppositional politics along an emerging continuum stretching from red/green/new social movements to conservative/christian democratic/neo‐fascist parties. The decks have now been cleared for the construction of a viable Irish eco‐social politics.”     

Locating parties, factions and ministers in a policy space: a contribution to understanding the party-policy link

Abstract. The article examines approaches to the study of the party-policy link and argues that two generally held assumptions - the unidimensionality of party political conflict and the party as unitary actor - should be treated as matters for empirical dedermination rather than a priori assumption. Having briefly reviewed interpretations of dimensionality in the Irish party system, the article puts forward an empirical approach to both issues based on multidimensional scaling of preference data from a sample of parliamentarians. The results of the application of such an approach in the Irish case indicate at least a two dimensional policy space and considerable intra-party factionalism. This evidence is then used to interpret the party-policy link in three areas: capital taxation, abortion and divorce, and Northern Ireland policy.     

The Africans

A virtual consensus exists that Catholics fare worse than Protestants in the N. Ireland labour market. The political implications of this imbalance have been extensive since the present bloody conflict has its origins in a civil rights campaign that demanded an end to Catholic economic and social disadvantage. A range of contrasting studies has attempted to explain the cause of unequal performance between Catholies and and Protestants in employment. This paper surveys the robustness of these investigations which are categorized under: (1) political explanations; (2) quasi-human capital studies; and (3) econometric and statistical assessments. It is suggested that each category has some merits, but none on its own is convincing. The paper concludes that we should adopt an eclectic apparoach to explaining the better employment position of protestants.     

The Moral Minority: Evangelical Protestants in Northern Ireland and Their Political Behaviour

It has long been asserted that strong evangelical religious beliefs underpin strong unionist and loyalist political attitudes in Northern Ireland. Although recent literature has argued for a wide diversity of political attitudes amongst evangelicals, this has not been quantified. Based on analysis of the 1991 Northern Irish Social Attitudes Survey and the 1998 Northern Ireland Life and Times Survey, this article argues that evangelicals are attitudinally different to other Protestants in Northern Ireland. However, their distinctiveness arises from their conservative moral attitudes and not, as widely claimed, from stronger unionist political values. Indeed, in terms of party identification, in 1991 evangelicals were less likely than other Protestants to support the Democratic Unionist Party (DUP). And although there has been a small shift towards the DUP over the course of the 1990s, it is not due to any strengthening of the unionism of evangelicals, but rather the increasing importance of moral conservatism in predicting voters' party choice in Northern Ireland.     

Sowing Dragon's Teeth: Public Support for Political Violence and Paramilitarism in Northern Ireland

While much attention has been devoted to political efforts to solve the Northern Ireland problem, less attention has been given to the role of political violence in sustaining the conflict. We argue that one of the reasons for the intractability of the conflict is widespread exposure to political violence among the civil population. By 1998, thirty years after the conflict started, one in seven of the population reported being a victim of violence; one in five had a family member killed or injured; and one in four had been caught up in an explosion. Such widespread exposure to violence exists alongside latent support for paramilitarism among a significant minority of both communities. Using 1998 survey data, we show that exposure to violence serves to enhance public support for paramilitary groups, as well as to reduce support for the decommissioning of para-military weapons. Overall, the results suggest that only a lengthy period without political violence will undermine support for paramilitarism and result in the decommissioning of weapons.     

Innovative Governance and Development in the New Ireland: Social Partnership and the Integrated Approach

Since the mid‐1980s, the economy of the Republic of Ireland has displayed a remarkable turnaround. Its Gross Domestic Product (GDP) has grown at a faster rate than any developed country in the world. The government's deficit has been cut severely and the debt‐to‐GDP ration sharply reduced. Average incomes have risen significantly, and the unemployment rate reduced dramatically. This article documents these changes. Its main purpose, however, is to provide a plausible explanation for the “Irish miracle.” While many factors have been important—support for the Economic Union's regional development programs, a favorable tax structure, locational and language advantages for attracting multinational corporations, strong education and training programs—these factors in themselves do not explain the emergence of the “Celtic tiger.” They were in place before the mid‐1980s when Ireland was suffering from a fiscal, economic, and political crisis. Instead, the article argues, it was the creative and innovative response of Irish leaders in government, industry, and labor movement and community organizations to the crisis, and the subsequent institutionalization of this response in a new form of governance, that has been the catalyst for the Irish success story. Based on the thorough background research of the Economic and Social Research Council, a farsighted group of leaders developed a strategic plan in 1987 that provided a blueprint for constructive economic and social change. This was then formally instituted for wage restraint on the part of labor in return for income tax and social supposed provisions by government. Irish social Partnership is modeled to some extent on Northern European corporatism. The article reviews corporatism as an early form of innovative governance, using classical corporatism in Sweden and competitive corporatism in the Netherlands to illustrate how this approach has evolved over the years. Dutch economic success in recent years is due in part to its new form of corporatism that has helped it become globally competitive. It is argued, however, that Irish social partnership goes beyond continental corporatism in several important ways. It is more inclusive, covering a large array of social interests; it is more strategic, with a well‐articulated integrated approach to social and economic development that is self‐corrective and articulated in a new national agreement every three years; and it is more firmly institutionalized in both government and nongovernment agencies in the country. Social partnership and the integrated approach have become part of the culture of the new Ireland. This innovative form of governance underlies the Irish turnaround and augurs well for the future. It can also serve as a model, with appropriate modification tailor‐made to each case, for other jurisdictions hoping to emulate Ireland's success.     

Brexit,the Belfast Agreement and Northern Ireland: Imperilling a Fragile Political Bargain

The major impact of the Belfast Agreement was to engineer a peaceful coexistence between nationalism and unionism that involved each bloc recognising it had sufficient power to thwart the political ambitions of the other side, but not enough to push through its own agenda. This paper argues that Brexit seriously damages this peaceful coexistence and could trigger what is termed an Ulster war of attrition in which Northern Ireland becomes entrapped in a political stalemate where each side strives to triumph without having sufficient power to do so. It also argues that to restore internal political stability in Northern Ireland, and to indemnify against the risk of disorderly relationships between the British and Irish governments in the future, the strategic importance of Strand 3 of the Belfast Agreement requires strengthening.     

Postmodern Europe and the resources of communal identities in Northern Ireland

Abstract. Irish Nationalist and Ulster Unionist communal identities have territorial, cultural and economic resources. Catalysts that have mobilized these resources and produced political action include 19th century famine and the Northern Ireland civil rights campaign of the late 1960s. As we approach the 21st century and the conditions and concepts of postmodernity initiate change in the structure and operation of the state, the European Union may realize its potential to affect the resources of communal identity and produce further change in the constitution and structural alignment of Irish Nationalist and Ulster Unionist identities. EU integration and structural initiatives have postmodernist contingencies that are beginning to redefine the structural space of Northern Ireland. The future development of these contingencies will be a fundamental factor in determining the extent to which Irish Nationalist and Ulster Unionist communal identities escape the embrace of modernity and develop with the postmodern world.