从2018年地方选举看俄罗斯左翼政党发展态势

俄罗斯地方选举的结果往往能够反映出俄罗斯的政治社会形势、中央地方关系的变化情况以及精英的流动和发展状况,对国家杜马选举甚至俄罗斯总统选举都有一定的影响。2018年俄地方选举呈现出不同以往的特点,普京支持的“统一俄罗斯”党不仅失去多个地区的领导权,在地区立法机构的席位也大幅缩水。相比之下,俄罗斯联邦共产党则取得了不错的竞选成绩,在所有参选地区的得票率都有所提升,大幅提高了在地区立法机构中的席位占比。但是由于政治当局的打压、左翼政党内部的分裂和俄罗斯联邦共产党自身的发展局限,俄罗斯左翼政党在短期内依然无法与强大的政权党抗衡。不断进行理论创新、加强党的自身建设、联合其他左翼政党和爱国力量,才是俄罗斯左翼政党复兴的长远之计。     

Minimum Winning Electoral Coalitions Under Presidentialism: Reality or Fiction? The Case of Brazil

This article studies the motivations of party leaders to form "minimum winning" electoral coalitions—alliances that cease to be winning if one member is subtracted. In Brazil, concurrent elections stimulate political actors' coordination, and electoral alliances are allowed. In 2002 and 2006, moreover, the Electoral Supreme Court obliged those parties with presidential candidates to replicate this electoral arrangement in the district. Under "verticalization," parties with presidential candidates could not form alliances with rival parties in the concurrent legislative and gubernatorial elections. Verticalization arguably pushed party leaders to form minimum winning electoral coalitions. This new rule forced them to reconsider the contributions of each possible ally in the elections for president, federal deputy, and governor. Examining the elections from 1998 to 2006, this study finds that under verticalization, while parties did form more electoral coalitions with those partners they considered crucial to win, they did so at the expense of policy.     

The Salience of Ideology: Fifteen Years of Presidential Elections in El Salvador

The victory of the FMLN in El Salvador's presidential elections of March 2009 has been considered remarkable, given the dominance of ARENA in four consecutive presidential races from 1989 to 2004. Using individual‐level data, this article examines the determinants of electoral support for both parties over the past 15 years. Several statistical models illuminate some of the factors that led to ARENA's dominance and ultimate defeat. A combination of variables associated with different theoretical models of voting helps explain the choices made by Salvadoran voters over the years. The most consistent predictors of vote have been voters' self‐reported ideology and their evaluation of the incumbent government's performance. The 2009 turnaround relates to fundamental changes in the national and international context, and also to the selection of candidates.     

Party opportunism among local politicians after Taiwan’s power transition

This paper probes into a hypothesised opportunism towards political party affiliation among local politicians in Taiwan since the power transition from Kuomintang (KMT) to Democratic Progressive Party (DPP) rule began in 2000. Longitudinal changes in election candidates' party affiliation are analysed to see what happened to the KMT's supposedly strong base of local politicians after the change of governing party. The research finds a generally high propensity of election candidates' changing or dropping their party affiliation between elections, and an increased propensity among KMT candidates after 2000. However, defections to other parties are more common in higher elections. In grassroots elections, many candidates flow in and out of their party affiliation depending on the political circumstances, but they rarely change party. Several years after the DPP gained power in presidential elections, the new ruling party is still struggling to build a strong local party organisation.     

Risk vs Reward Strategies in Indirect Presidential Elections: Political Parties and the Selection of Presidential Electors in Germany, 1949–2017

Parties across parliamentary republics compete fiercely over capturing the presidential office. However, they are often torn between seeing their preferred candidate elected and exploiting the election for publicity purposes. The German case, specifically parties’ ability to nominate extra-parliamentarian electors (EPEs) as part of the electoral college, offers a particularly interesting perspective on how parties balance these competing goals. While EPEs allow parties to boost their profile and strengthen ties with selected groups, they also present a risk factor as their voting behaviour is more difficult to predict. Based on a novel data set on party delegations in German presidential elections, 1949–2017, the analysis shows that – contrary to traditional assumptions – competition in the electoral college did not play a role in EPE nominations. Rather, party strategies were influenced by the varying signalling power of the elections. Parties were more risk-averse and nominated fewer EPEs during grand coalitions, when they were part of the federal government, or when federal elections approached, yet nominated more EPEs when they had a larger support base to reward. The results call for further comparative research on indirect elections and different types of EPEs in Germany.     

The Collapse of Fujimorismo: Authoritarianism and its Limits

The resignation of Alberto Fujimori as president of Peru and the convening of fresh elections for 2001 invites a reassessment of the strengths and weaknesses of the Fujimorato . Fujimori's was a hybrid regime, an uneasy admixture of democratic and autocratic elements. While following prescribed election timetables and tolerating certain opposition, this was an authoritarian government. Grounded on a pact with the armed forces and involving a concentration of presidential power, its support was organised along populist lines that took advantage of the weakness of political parties. However, as the regime's demise suggests, the tension between democratic and autocratic elements could never be properly reconciled.     

Manifestos and elections in Ghana's Fourth Republic

Debate continues over the factors that influence electoral outcomes or voter behaviour and alignment in elections all over the world. Several factors have been noted, including the manifestos of political parties. In spite of the potential influence of the party manifesto, several comparative and empirical studies on elections in Ghana have paid little or no attention to manifestos in determining the electoral outcomes of political parties in the Fourth Republic.This paper makes a contribution to the debate by examining how manifestos have influenced the electoral chances of the two main political parties which have been in and out of government in Ghana since the inception of the Fourth Republic, namely, the National Democratic Congress and the New Patriotic Party. Analysis covers the five elections held in 1992, 1996, 2000, 2004 and 2008. Specifically, it discusses not only the ability of the manifestos to shape policy debate but also to some extent, influence electoral outcomes. The paper concludes with some lessons learned.     

Incumbency,internal processes and renomination in Indian parties

This paper analyses a critical aspect of the internal functioning of five major Indian political parties, namely the nomination of candidates for parliamentary elections, focusing on the pattern of renomination of former candidates and incumbents. The data are analysed against the literature on the structure and functioning of Indian parties, and interview material on the process of nomination in the 2009 and 2004 elections. From the perspective of a six-fold typology of centralisation of nomination processes drawn from the comparative literature, it is found that all the parties analysed are in either the second-most centralised, or even most centralised categories, and that for the three major national parties, Congress, Bharatiya Janata Party and Communist Party of India (Marxist), past performance plays a role in nominations, the majority of incumbents being renominated in the post-1989 period.     

Multi-level voting and party competition in vertically simultaneous elections: the case of Ukraine

Vertically simultaneous elections to state-wide and regional legislatures provide us with a naturally occurring experiment in which to examine regionalism and multi-level voting. We examine the 2006 vertically and horizontally simultaneous state-wide and regional elections in Ukraine to determine how the internal dynamics of regionalism within a state account for the dissimilarity of voting behavior across electoral levels. Drawing on the party competition literature, we demonstrate that variations in both supply (parties) and demand (voters) produce considerable dissimilarity between regional and state results, with lower levels of consolidation and greater fractionalization at the regional level. We show that political cleavages operate differently across levels, that regional distinctiveness rather than regional authority better predicts first order-ness in regional elections, and that voters display varying tolerance for polarization at the regional and state level.     

Argentina's Landmark 2003 Presidential Election: Renewal and Continuity

This article provides an analysis of the political and socioeconomic context of the April 2003 presidential elections, focusing particularly on the campaign platforms of candidates, the outcome of the first round and the election's consequences for the party system. The election's results were far reaching in many respects. Argentina's longstanding two-party system came to an end with the virtual vanishing of the Radical party (UCR) at the national level. An evolved political culture resulted in new, more rigorous criteria for the selection of candidates. Finally, new political parties (MNR and ARI) emerged that could conceivably improve the quality of democratic governance in the future. In short, the 2001–2002 crisis fostered a significant degree of political renewal. Contrary to some predictions, however, the societal rejection of political parties did not result in either the complete demolition of the party system or the wholesale renovation of the political class. In particular, the Peronist party showcased its staying power and uncanny ability to adapt to new political environments.     

Markets,Democracy, and New Private Business in Russia

A political scientist examines the relationship between private property and elections, using a survey of 500 business elites in Russia. Specific attention is paid to how the type of property held by company managers influences their support for promarket parties and the holding of elections.     

The Mexican Presidential and Congressional Elections of 2000 and Democratic Transition

The article examines the presidential and congressional elections of July 2000 in Mexico. The elections brought to an end more than 70 years of single party government and the culmination of a gradual democratisation process stretching back at least a decade. The long term decline in the bases of support for the regime and the changing institutional rules for elections and parties are described by way of contextualising the campaign itself and its leading protagonists. While the new rules of the game guaranteed free and fair elections, issues of internal party democracy and negative, personality-based campaigning do not paint a universally rosy democratic picture. Analysis of the election results demonstrates how the opposition was able to move beyond its traditional geographic confines and challenge across the country. However, voters did not give an unambiguous victory to Vicente Fox; his alliance does not possess a majority in either house of congress. Divided government and developments in the party system are considered as two key issues that will shape Mexico's democratic future.     

The Electoral Consequences of Direct Political Action: Evidence from Brazil

Democracy affords citizens the ability to influence policy through participation in elections and through direct political action. Though previous scholarship evaluates the impact each strategy has on outcomes, little if any work exists that examines how one strategy, direct action, affects success in the other, elections. This study analyzes the relationship between land occupations and the electoral success of the Workers' Party in Brazil between 1996 and 2006. It finds that the relationship varies in presidential and mayoral elections depending on income inequality and incumbency. Once the PT captures the presidential office in 2002, these effects disappear, suggesting that the effect of political protest also depends on who is in office.     

The territorial genealogies of Russia's political parties and the transferability of political machines

This article uses statistical analysis of aggregate electoral returns in order to establish continuities in the territorial patterns of support between four major political parties of contemporary Russia, on the one hand, and those parties that contested national legislative (Duma) elections from 1993 through 2007, on the other hand. It is hypothesized that such continuities, dubbed “territorial genealogies,” are largely rooted in the migration of region-based gubernatorial political machines from one national party to another, which constitutes a major flow of organizational continuity in the development of political parties. Statistical analysis confirms that the main hubs of machine politics in Russia's regions, originating from the intra-elite struggles of the 1990s, provide United Russia with the territorial core of its current support. Other political parties retain electoral salience in those regions where their electoral appeal is not mitigated by the presence of political machines, which underscores the importance of non-machine party organization for their electoral destinies.     

Social change, political elections, and the middle class in Korea

The primary purpose of this study is to analyze the political orientations of the Korean middle classes as they were manifested in their voting behavior in the general and presidential elections. In addition, the present study examines the nature of the involvement of the middle classes in the context of each of the major historical events since the liberation from the Japanese colonial rule. The event-specific analysis of the middle class participation made it possible to test the fitness of different hypotheses about the political orientation of the Korean middle classes. With few notable exceptions, the middle classes had not been actively involved in protest movements. Rather, they rely on the democratic political systems to passively promote their own agenda and political transformation. Overall, the middle classes have remained a substantial and silent force, with the potential to be backbone of stability or the engine for change. Their force has been felt strongest in the general and presidential elections, where their support for or opposition to, the ruling party has consistently determined the outcomes. With the growth of voluntary associations representing a wide variety of causes, the middle classes' strength may be diluted somewhat by the number of issues for protest. A cause that finds support across the middle class An earlier version this article was presented at the Conference on “The Republic of Korea After 50 Years: Continuity and Convergence,” Georgetown University, Washington, D.C., October 2–3, 1998.     

Radical Change at the Ballot Box: Causes and Consequences of Electoral Behavior in Venezuela's 2000 Elections

This study aims to explain the victory of Hugo Chávez and his party in the 2000 Venezuelan elections, to analyze the factors that made this victory possible, and to examine the consequences for future developments in the Venezuelan political system. The decay of traditional party loyalties without the emergence of new parties deeply rooted in society (dealignment without realignment); underdevelopment; and an institutional setting dominated by a president elected by a plurality electoral system have opened the door to personality-centered politics and weak parties, which are the main features of the current political situation. Compared to the 1993 and 1998 elections, the 2000 elections once again confirm an increase in personality politics and the decay of parties as instruments for articulating interests, representation, and governance. As a consequence, this article argues, instability is likely to remain a feature of Venezuela's party system for some time.     

The Formation of Cabinet Coalitions in Presidential Systems

Cabinet coalitions are central to the functioning of Latin American presidential systems. However, the reasons for their formation remain unclear. While recent studies suggest that presidents invite parties to the cabinet to facilitate governability and lawmaking, this study argues that the composition of cabinet coalitions is largely predetermined by commitments made before presidential elections. To analyze this argument, the study introduces the conditional logit model as a new empirical strategy for modeling cabinet choice under this type of regime. Based on a new dataset of 107 cabinets in 13 Latin American democracies, the study shows that pre‐electoral commitments strongly affect cabinet formation and thereby also confound the relationship between cabinet formation and governability.     

Opposition Coordination in Singapore’s 2015 General Elections

Abstract

Recent political science scholarship suggests that when opposition political parties are able to coalesce into a united coalition against an authoritarian regime, they will perform better in authoritarian elections, and can more credibly bargain with the regime for liberalising reforms. Yet, most of this literature pays little attention to the variety of ways in which opposition parties cooperate with each other. Drawing on the literature on the bargaining model of war, the author sketches out a theoretical framework to explain how opposition parties coordinate to develop non-competition agreements. Such agreements entail opposition parties bargaining over which political party should contest or withdraw in which constituencies to ensure straight fights against the dominant authoritarian incumbent in each electoral district. The author then applies this framework to explain opposition coordination in Singapore’s 2015 general elections, focusing on the conflict between the Workers’ Party and the National Solidarity Party.     

The indonesian general elections 2004

The year 2004 is crucial for Indonesia's democracy. It has held a series of elections, ending on September 20 with the final round of the presidential elections.

The first election on April 5 was to elect members of Parliament (DPR), the Council of Regional Representatives (DPD) and the provincial as well as county level legislatures. Around 600 million ballots were cast that day by about 120 million voters.

The election was seen by the public and the international community as democratic, fair and peaceful. This was also the case with the first and second rounds of the presidential elections on July 5 and September 20.

They have helped to move Indonesia's democracy several notches higher and the Indonesian people should be congratulated for the process and the implementation. It showed a kind of maturity that augurs well for the future.

Encouragingly, it has been a democratic process, where Indonesians are exerting their political right to make their choice without being influenced or feeling pressured by their social and political groupings.

The voters showed their displeasure with PDI-P whose votes declined from 34% in 1999 to 19% in 2004. Recent experience also showed that personal popularity is an important factor in the election of the president. In addition, despite being the biggest Muslim country, the Muslim parties that are proponents of the Sharia got only 23% of the votes. Two out of the five presidential candidates representing Muslim organizations were eliminated after the first round.

The final round on September 20 was a competition between SBY (Susilo Bambang Yudhoyono), who was the most popular candidate, and Megawati, the incumbent. She has slightly improved her image and was able to build a coalition among the three biggest parties in parliament. The competition was thought to be a close one, but in the end it showed that popularity was the more decisive factor.