Risk Terrain Modeling: Brokering Criminological Theory and GIS Methods for Crime Forecasting

The research presented here has two key objectives. The first is to apply risk terrain modeling (RTM) to forecast the crime of shootings. The risk terrain maps that were produced from RTM use a range of contextual information relevant to the opportunity structure of shootings to estimate risks of future shootings as they are distributed throughout a geography. The second objective was to test the predictive power of the risk terrain maps over two six‐month time periods, and to compare them against the predictive ability of retrospective hot spot maps. Results suggest that risk terrains provide a statistically significant forecast of future shootings across a range of cut points and are substantially more accurate than retrospective hot spot mapping. In addition, risk terrain maps produce information that can be operationalized by police administrators easily and efficiently, such as for directing police patrols to coalesced high‐risk areas.     

Organised Criminals as “Agents of Obligation”: The Case of Ireland

Relying on Brown's (2005a, b) thesis that contemporary shifts in penal policy are best understood as a reprisal of colonial rationality, so that offenders become “non-citizens” or “agents of obligation”, this article argues, firstly, that this framework (with certain important refinements and extensions) finds support in developments in Irish criminal justice policy aimed at offenders suspected of involvement in “organised crime”. These offenders have found themselves reconstituted as “agents of obligation” with duties to furnish information about their property and movements, report to the police concerning their location and, importantly, refrain from criminal activity or face extraordinary sanctions. Secondly, it is submitted that this draconian approach to the control of organised crime is built on false premises; specifically the idea that “organised crime” as such exists and is best controlled through restrictions on the freedom of key groups or “core nominals”.     

Integrity,culture, and scale: an empirical test of the big bad police agency

Building on Klockars et. al. (2000) analysis of survey data on police agency integrity, this analysis develops an economic model of police corruption within police agencies. Empirical estimates of the economic model are consistent with Klockars et. al. (2000) in that there is no evidence to support the traditional theory that police agency corruption is attributable to the “individual bad-apple.” Independent of other factors, the present analysis shows that police culture fosters corruption. Furthermore, the present analysis shows that incentive structures within police agencies increase the problem of corruption as the scale of police agency operation increases. Policies that would promote higher levels of integrity are considered.     

Predicting Property Crime Risk: an Application of Risk Terrain Modeling in Vancouver,Canada

Research on the spatial dimension of crime has developed significantly over the past few decades. An important aspect of this research is the visualization of this dimension and its underlying risk across space. However, most methods of such visualization, and subsequent analyses, only consider crime data or, perhaps, a population at risk in a crime rate. Risk terrain modeling (RTM) provides an alternative to such methods and can incorporate the entire environmental backcloth, data permitting. To date, the RTM literature has dominantly focused on violent crime in the United States. In this paper, we apply RTM to property crime victimization (residential burglary) in Vancouver, Canada. We are able to show that not only does RTM have applicability in a Canadian context but provides insight into nonviolent victimization.     

High-Risk Interrogation: Using the “Mr. Big Technique” to Elicit Confessions

Kassin et al. (Police-Induced Confessions: Risk Factors and Recommendation, 2009) provide a detailed and thoughtful analysis of how police interrogation practices might elicit false confessions from innocent suspects. The purpose of this commentary is to provide a brief review of a relatively recent development in Canadian police investigation practice and discuss how this procedure may increase the likelihood of police-induced false confessions. The so-called “Mr. Big Technique” is a non-custodial interrogation tactic wherein suspects are drawn into a supposed criminal organization (actually an elaborate police sting) and subsequently told that to move up in the organization, they must confess to a crime. In this article, we describe this remarkable interrogation technique and discuss issues relevant to the potential induction of false confessions.     

Spousal violence: Police officer attitudes and arrest response

Conclusion On the 15 propositions, three propositions were found to support the general hypothesis. The findings indicate that as police officers showed an increase in attitudes supporting spousal violence the following occurred: (a) “frequent calls for police assistance from the household” became less important to police officers who were deciding to arrest; (b) “Jail overcrowding” became more important to police officers who were deciding not to arrest; and (c) “participant’s first encounter with the police” became more important to police officers who were deciding not to arrest. The other 12 propositions did not support the general hypothesis which suggested that the priority of all extralegal factors would relate to the ABUSE score.     

A randomized controlled trial of different policing strategies at hot spots of violent crime

Focusing police efforts on “hot spots” has gained acceptance among researchers and practitioners. However, little rigorous evidence exists on the comparative effectiveness of different hot spots strategies. To address this gap, we randomly assigned 83 hot spots of violence in Jacksonville, Florida, to receive either a problem-oriented policing (POP) strategy, directed-saturation patrol, or a control condition for 90 days. We then examined crime in these areas during the intervention period and a 90-day post-intervention period. In sum, the use of POP was associated with a 33% reduction in “street violence” during the 90 days following the intervention. While not statistically significant, we also observed that POP was associated with other non-trivial reductions in violence and property crime during the post-intervention period. In contrast, we did not detect statistically significant crime reductions for the directed-saturation patrol group, though there were non-significant declines in crime in these areas during the intervention period. Tests for displacement or a diffusion of benefits provided indications that violence was displaced to areas near the POP locations, though some patterns in the data suggest this may have been due to the effects of POP on crime reporting by citizens in nearby areas. We conclude by discussing the study’s limitations and the implications of the findings for efforts to refine hot spots policing.     

Police Attitudes about the Use of Unnecessary Force: An Ecological Examination

An unexplored explanation for police opinion about their use of unnecessary force can be framed within the research examining police behavior in the context of its geographic location. Using Klinger’s (1997) theory of social ecology as a guide, a vignette research design was employed to survey officers in four departments of varying size and structure. It was hypothesized that officers assigned to higher crime areas would more likely accept the use of unnecessary force by another officer as well as be unlikely to believe that the use of unnecessary force would be reported to a supervisor. Bivariate results and multivariate analyses show support for both hypotheses. Implications for future research and theoretical development are discussed.     

Applying Crime Prediction Techniques to Japan: A Comparison Between Risk Terrain Modeling and Other Methods

In recent years, the field of crime prediction has drawn increasing attention in Japan. However, predicting crime in Japan is especially challenging because the crime rate is considerably lower than that of other developed countries, making the development of a statistical model for crime prediction quite difficult. Risk terrain modeling (RTM) may be the most suitable method, as it depends mainly on the environmental factors associated with crime and does not require past crime data. In this study, we applied RTM to cases of theft from vehicles in Fukuoka, Japan, in 2014 and evaluated the predictive performance (hit rate and predictive accuracy index) in comparison to other crime prediction techniques, including KDE, ProMap, and SEPP, which use past crime occurrences to predict future crime. RTM was approximately twice as effective as the other techniques. Based on the results, we discuss the merits of and drawbacks to using RTM in Japan.     

The Evidence-Based Policing Matrix

The next phase of evidence-based policing requires both scholars and practitioners to move from lists of specific studies about “what works” to using that information strategically. This requires developing generalizations or principles on the nature of effective police strategies and translating the field of police evaluation research into digestible forms that can be used to alter police tactics, strategies, accountability systems, and training. In this article, we present a tool intended for such use: the Evidence-Based Policing Matrix. The Matrix is a consistently updated, research-to-practice translation tool that categorizes and visually bins all experimental and quasi-experimental research on police and crime reduction into intersections between three common dimensions of crime prevention—the nature of the target, the extent to which the strategy is proactive or reactive, and the specificity or generality of the strategy. Our mapping and visualization of 97 police evaluation studies conducted through December 31, 2009, indicate that proactive, place-based, and specific policing approaches appear much more promising in reducing crime than individual-based, reactive, and general ones. We conclude by discussing how the Matrix can be used to guide future research and facilitate the adoption of evidence-based policing.     

Nigeria

Conclusion Organized crime activities flourish in Nigeria because law enforcement is weak or nonexistent at all levels. The police were corrupt even before organized crime emerged in its present form in Nigeria. Since “corruption is necessary for the successful operation of organized crime,”⁹⁴ the structure and operation of the Nigerian police, together with the activities of corrupt heads of state and corrupt politicians, made Nigeria fertile ground for organized crime. When those who make the laws and those who enforce the law are shamelessly corrupt, then the entire society is cor-rupted. These leaders are supposed to be the role models of the younger generations in Nigeria. Instead, they represent what Gresham Sykes and David Matza have termed the “appeal to higher loyalty”—a technique for rationalization of wrongs by under-privileged elements of Nigerian society who willingly engage in criminal activity.     

The political-criminal nexus in the united states

Summary The 1967 Task Force Report on Organized Crime (TFR) found that “...all available data indicate that organized crime flourishes only where it has corrupted public officials.” 48 From that standpoint, neutralizing local law enforcement would appear to be central to criminal operations. That conclusion would depend on (a) how one defines “organized crime” and (b) the assumption that organized crime described by the Task Force covers all cases and species of it including what is referred to as “non-traditional” organized crime. A conclusion that seems unchallengeable in the Report is the observation that it was impossible to determine “the extent of the corruption of public officials in the United States.” The lack of information on this question was aggravated by the fact that many of those who provided information to the Task Force were themselves public officials.     

Crime or social harm? A dialectical perspective

This paper proposes to examine some of the core philosophical issues to have arisen out of the recent calls to move “beyond criminology”. It will be claimed that the dismissal of crime as a “fictive event” is premature, as crime does indeed have an “ontological reality”. Nevertheless, it will be asserted that the relation between harm and crime is contingent rather than necessary. Accordingly, this paper will argue that there is merit to the claim that we should unify research on social harm through the creation of a new field, a step which would have the added benefit of constructing an alternative venue for crimes of the powerful scholars who wish to explore the destructive practices of states and corporations unconstrained. This paper, therefore, will also offer a dialectical definition of social harm based upon classical Marxist strains of ontological thought.     

Between the ‘Home’ and ‘Institutional’ Worlds: Tensions and Contradictions in the Practice of House Arrest

In this paper we argue that the theoretical work of Goffman (1961) on “total institutions,” Foucault’s (1977) insights into the workings of disciplinary power, and an account of contemporary forms of punishment and social control in postmodern society (Staples 2000) help us better understand the experiences of those individuals sentenced to house arrest. Based on face-to-face interviews with twenty-three people being electronically monitored in a Midwestern metropolitan area, our analysis identifies three themes that illustrate the ways in which electronic monitoring is experienced as a complex amalgam of what Goffman (1961, p. 13) saw as the distinct “home world” and the “institutional world”. These themes include (1) “Home is Where the Machine Is,” (2) “Producing Docile Bodies,” and (3) “Threat of Sanctions”. We reassert our claim (Staples 1994, 2000) that contemporary forms of social control such as electronic monitoring reflect an ongoing struggle to deal with problems and issues set in motion with the birth of modernity.     

Subjective Strains, Conditioning Factors, and Juvenile Delinquency: General Strain Theory in Taiwan

Agnew’s [Agnew, R. Journal of Research in Crime and Delinquency, 38(4), 319–361, 2001, 2006a, 2006b] general strain theory (GST) argues that subjective strain and objective strain should be distinguished from each other, and that subjective strain should be related more strongly to delinquency. In addition, GST suggests that the strain–delinquency relationship is conditioned by certain conditioning factors, and that research should treat these conditioning factors as a whole, i.e., the individual’s “overall” standing regarding these conditional factors. The present study uses a random sample of Taiwanese adolescents (13–17 years old) to study these two issues. The results suggest that strain as measured in this study is related positively to delinquency; however, subjective strain does not differ from objective strain in predicting delinquency. Additionally, the “overall standing” conditioning factors interact differently with subjective strain and objective strain but in the expected direction.     

Organized crime: Changing concepts and realities for the police

This brief presentation notes how the lack of clarity of what exactly is meant by “organized crime” as it is evolving, and particularly its transnational dimensions, can create problems and confusion for police and community alike. The role of the media is of particular significance in determining how both police and citizens perceive the scope and impact of organized crime. This in turn has implications for operations, priorities, and so on. The need to address a number of important areas that limit police effectiveness in countering organized crime, such as cooperation and sharing, appropriate resources, and measures of effectiveness, is also noted.     

Media coverage of organized crime—police managers survey

This brief presentation notes how the lack of clarity of what exactly is meant by “organized crime” as it is evolving, and particularly its transnational dimensions, can create problems and confusion for police and community alike. The role of the media is of particular significance in determining how both police and citizens perceive the scope and impact of organized crime. This in turn has implications for operations, priorities, and so on. The need to address a number of important areas that limit police effectiveness in countering organized crime, such as cooperation and sharing, appropriate resources, and measures of effectiveness, is also noted.     

New Evidence on the Monetary Value of Saving a High Risk Youth

There is growing interest in crime prevention through early youth interventions; yet, the standard United States response to the crime problem, particularly among juveniles, has been to increase the use and resource allocation allotted toward punishment and incapacitation and away from prevention and treatment. At the same time, longitudinal studies of delinquency and crime have repeatedly documented a strong link between past and future behavior and have identified a small subset of offenders who commit a large share of criminal offenses. These findings suggest that if these offenders can be identified early and correctly and provided with prevention and treatment resources early in the life course, their criminal activity may be curtailed. While researchers have studied these offenders in great detail, little attention has been paid to the costs they exert on society. This paper provides estimates of the cost of crime imposed on society by high risk youth. Our approach follows and builds upon the early framework and basic methodology developed by Cohen (J Quant Criminol 14: 5–33, 1998), by using new estimates of the costs of individual crimes, ones that are more comprehensive and that significantly increased the monetary cost per crime. We also use new estimates on the underlying offending rate for high risk juvenile offenders. We estimate the present value of saving a 14-year-old high risk juvenile from a life of crime to range from $2.6 to $5.3 million. Similarly, saving a high risk youth at birth would save society between $2.6 and $4.4 million.

Willing Suspension of Disbelief: A Study in Online Learning Through Simulation,and Its Potential for Deeper Learning in Higher Education

This article describes the replacement of a “traditionally taught” law of probate course (lectures and workshops/tutorials) with an on-line collaborative learning exercise using simulation and role-play which is referred to hereafter as the Transactional Learning Project (TLP). The article considers the theory that the emotional engagement that comes about through role play in simulation leads to deeper learning, a process (Maharg in Simulation and the affective domain, Cambridge, 2010) has dubbed as the “integration of the cognitive and the affective”. The article includes statistical analysis of student feedback on the TLP in an attempt to measure how easy it is to carry students predisposed to expect information to be “given” rather than “acquired” along the journey leading away from traditional didactic teaching. The project was motivated partly by the dearth of such learning practices on the Legal Practice Course. It is suggested that the findings of the project add to the body of research (Keats and Boughey in High Educ 27:59–73, 1994) which tends to illustrate the success in terms of student learning from working in leaderless (i.e where the Tutor is absent from the collaborative group) groups engaged in practical tasks involving simulation.