Predicting Property Crime Risk: an Application of Risk Terrain Modeling in Vancouver,Canada

Research on the spatial dimension of crime has developed significantly over the past few decades. An important aspect of this research is the visualization of this dimension and its underlying risk across space. However, most methods of such visualization, and subsequent analyses, only consider crime data or, perhaps, a population at risk in a crime rate. Risk terrain modeling (RTM) provides an alternative to such methods and can incorporate the entire environmental backcloth, data permitting. To date, the RTM literature has dominantly focused on violent crime in the United States. In this paper, we apply RTM to property crime victimization (residential burglary) in Vancouver, Canada. We are able to show that not only does RTM have applicability in a Canadian context but provides insight into nonviolent victimization.     

Facilitators and Impediments to Designing,Implementing, and Evaluating Risk-Based Policing Strategies Using Risk Terrain Modeling: Insights from a Multi-City Evaluation in the United States

The contemporary policing literature contains numerous examples of partnerships between academic researchers and police agencies. Such efforts have greatly contributed to evidence-based policing by increasing the knowledge base on effective strategies. However, research has demonstrated that successful collaboration between researchers and practitioners can be a challenge, with various organizational and inter-agency factors presenting difficulties at various stages of the process. Additionally, applied research can oftentimes face implementation challenges when the time comes to convert research into practice. The current study contributes to the literature by discussing researcher/practitioner partnerships and program implementation in the context of a multi-city risk-based policing project in the United States. We conceptualize police interventions as contingent on four distinct phases: 1) problem analysis, 2) project design, 3) project implementation, and 4) project evaluation. In this project, the research partners were able to successfully complete each phase in certain cities while the project experienced difficulty at one or more phases in other cities. We discuss these disparate experiences, identifying factors that facilitate or impede successful completion of each step. Policy implications and recommendations for future risk-based policing interventions are discussed.     

Applying Crime Prediction Techniques to Japan: A Comparison Between Risk Terrain Modeling and Other Methods

In recent years, the field of crime prediction has drawn increasing attention in Japan. However, predicting crime in Japan is especially challenging because the crime rate is considerably lower than that of other developed countries, making the development of a statistical model for crime prediction quite difficult. Risk terrain modeling (RTM) may be the most suitable method, as it depends mainly on the environmental factors associated with crime and does not require past crime data. In this study, we applied RTM to cases of theft from vehicles in Fukuoka, Japan, in 2014 and evaluated the predictive performance (hit rate and predictive accuracy index) in comparison to other crime prediction techniques, including KDE, ProMap, and SEPP, which use past crime occurrences to predict future crime. RTM was approximately twice as effective as the other techniques. Based on the results, we discuss the merits of and drawbacks to using RTM in Japan.     

Enhancing Data-Driven Law Enforcement Efforts: Exploring how Risk Terrain Modeling and Conjunctive Analysis Fit in a Crime and Traffic Safety Framework

Law enforcement’s examination of vehicle crashes is often nested in the Data-Driven Approaches to Crime and Traffic Safety (DDACTS) framework which highlights the importance of hot spot analysis. To assist law enforcement efforts, this study explores how two additional spatial techniques, namely risk terrain modeling (RTM) and conjunctive analysis of case configurations (CACC), could be incorporated within the DDACTS framework. RTM was utilized to identify how the built, physical environment contributed to the risk of traffic incidents. RTM identified 6 risk factors related to the occurrence of vehicle crashes, and high-risk places were compared to hot spots on predictive accuracy. CACC was used to explore configurations likely to result in traffic incidents for the priority places. Our findings support the Theory of Risky Places and fit within a vulnerability-exposure framework, providing law enforcement with guidance for identifying places where vehicle crashes are likely to occur in the future. In addition to providing insight for law enforcement, we discuss how law enforcement can develop working partnerships with stakeholders capable of preventing and/or reducing traffic incidents, which is in line with the general DDACTS framework.

     

Police deadly force as social control: Jamaica,Argentina, and Brazil

Conclusion When we consider a variety of indicators concerning the disproportionate use of deadly force by police-the ratio of civilians killed to those wounded, the ratio of civilians killed to police killed, and the ratio of police killings to the total homicide rate-the statistics, both official and unofficial, for Jamaica, Buenos Aires, São Paulo, and Rio de Janeiro all point toward the conclusion that the police are summarily executing suspects in routine, non-partisan cases. Directed almost exclusively against anonymous, poor people, this abuse of deadly force appears as an extreme form of coercive social control. When the threat of social unrest seems high--because of increased social mobilization together with increased economic misery--the police may summarily execute a large number of suspects, providing that both elite and lower-class opinion tolerates the executions as legitimate. In all these locations, while opinion is split, the police violence is minimally acceptable; indeed, the prevalence of private vigilantism signals its acceptability with the mass of people.Nonetheless, because Jamaica, Argentina, and Brazil are liberal states, it is difficult to view police homicides as legitimate except under the rubric of crime control and under the rule of law. Accordingiy, virtually all police killings are justified to the public as acts of self-defense, typically in the context of shoot-outs. This justification appears to be essential for organizing public opinion even though, for at least some people at all socioeconomic levels, summary executions, like vigilantism, are considered the proper punishment for alleged crimes. Experience in other countries suggests that it is possible for the authorities to limit and even prevent police violence. This effort will not be made in Jamaica, Argentina, or Brazil, however, so long as police use of deadly force constitutes a means of social control acceptable to both elite and mass opinion.B.A. Yale University 1957; LL.B., Harvard University 1960. My thanks are due to Bell Chevigny, Russell Karp, and Lois Whitman; to Americas Watch for sponsoring human rights investigations in Brazil and Jamaica; to the Centro de Estudios Legales y Sociales in Buenos Aires, Argentina; to Paulo Sergio Pinheiro and to the Nucleo de Estudos da Violência in Sâo Paulo, Brazil; and to Frances Piven and Anne Buckborough for essential research assistance. Thanks to my colleagues from the Law and Society Colloquium at New York University and from the 1988 annual meeting of the Law and Society Association for helpful comments. I am grateful for the generous support of the Filomen D'Agostino and Max E. Greenberg Research Fund of New York University School of Law.     

Moving Images Through an Assemblage: Police, Visual Information, and Resistance

Through interviews with police and document analysis this article examines the movement of video surveillance images from source to police to the courts in order to assess and refine the surveillant assemblage concept. Using this concept, the case study reveals asymmetrical criminalization processes involving movement of this visual information. The study finds that most video surveillance images transferred to police come from private sources as a consequence of function creep and that their movement epitomizes creation of criminalized ‘data-doubles’. However, the article argues that this criminalizing movement through the police is revealed as less than a seamless process; it is dependent on human labour and encounters forms of resistance along the way that include increased police workload and technological limitations.     

Legal Evidence, Police Intelligence, Crime Analysis or Detection, Forensic Testing, and Argumentation: An Overview of Computer Tools or Techniques

Notwithstanding a few seminal precursors from the late 1980s,it is only with the new century that the modelling of reasoningon legal evidence has emerged as a significant area within thewell-established field of AI & Law (active since the 1970s).An overview such as the one in this article has never appearedbefore in the literature. It is three-pronged: it is about themodelling of reasoning about legal evidence, about tools forlegal argumentation, and about select areas in forensic science.For newcomers into the modelling of legal evidence by meansof AI techniques, it is essentialnot to simplistically blunderinto such design choices that would result in flaws making thetools unusable by legal professionals, so it is important tobe aware of ongoing controversies. Other tools are appropriatefor law enforcement, e.g., tools assisting in crime analysis.In the compass of this article, we only very briefly deal withthe modelling of arguments as such, and we only sketchily forayinto forensic science, by selecting some areas within it byway of exemplification.     

论行政检查启动的规范化路径——以警察行政检查为例证

行政检查因预防、发现和打击违法功能而备受行政机关重视,在实践中启动频繁。由于检查涉及公民基本权利,理应构建对启动程序的规制机制,以达事前控制功能。以警察行政检查为例证分析,可知我国行政检查的决定主体采行政审批模式,是基于司法权与行政权关系作出的理性选择。至于具体启动要件,需针对不同检查类型,从形式与实体两方面展开探讨。形式上,办案检查、日常监督检查、集体盘查原则上应申领检查证,惟紧急情况和对严密监管行业的日常监督检查可豁免;实体上,参鉴美国的双重要素理论探讨检查启动的实质理由,改进单一判断标准。     

Assessing Stability and Change in Criminal Offending: A Comparison of Random Effects, Semiparametric, and Fixed Effects Modeling Strategies

An important theoretical problem for criminologists is an explanation forthe robust positive correlation between prior and future criminaloffending. Nagin and Paternoster (1991) have suggested that the correlationcould be due to time-stable population differences in the underlyingproneness to commit crimes (population heterogeneity) and/or thecriminogenic effect that crime has on social bonds, conventionalattachments, and the like (state dependence). Because of data andmeasurement limitations, the disentangling of population heterogeneityand state dependence requires that researchers control for unmeasuredpersistent heterogeneity. Frequently, random effects probit models havebeen employed, which, while user-friendly, make a strong parametricassumption that the unobserved heterogeneity in the population follows anormal distribution. Although semiparametric alternatives to the randomeffects probit model have recently appeared in the literature to avoid thisproblem, in this paper we return to reconsider the fully parametric model. Viasimulation evidence, we first show that the random effects probit modelproduces biased estimates as the departure of heterogeneity from normalitybecomes more substantial. Using the 1958 Philadelphia cohort data, we thencompare the results from a random effects probit model with a semiparametricprobit model and a fixed effects logit model that makes no assumptions aboutthe distribution of unobserved heterogeneity. We found that with this dataset all three models converged on the same substantive result—evenafter controlling for unobserved persistent heterogeneity, with models thattreat the unobserved heterogeneity very differently, prior conduct had apronounced effect on subsequent offending. These results are inconsistentwith a model that attributes all of the positive correlation between priorand future offending to differences in criminal propensity. Sinceresearchers will often be completely blind with respect to the tenabilityof the normality assumption, we conclude that different estimationstrategies should be brought to bear on the data.     

Hardiness as a Moderator and Motivation for Operational Duties as Mediator: the Relation Between Operational Self-Efficacy,Performance Satisfaction,and Perceived Strain in a Simulated Police Training Scenario

Training of police officers is important in order to maintain an effective law enforcement community. The present study investigates the mediating effect of motivation for operational duties on the relation between operational self-efficacy and performance satisfaction as well as perceived strain during a simulated operational scenario. Moderating effects of personality hardiness on the same relations were also investigated. Personality hardiness as a moderator was found only for the relation between operational self-efficacy and performance satisfaction. A positive effect was found for high hardy subjects, and a negative effect was found for low hardy subjects. The results also showed a mediating effect of motivation for operational duties on both performance satisfaction and perceived strain. This could have implication for selection and training in the police force.     

Cultural Sovereignty, Relativism, and International Human Rights: New Excuses for Old Strategies

Abstract. Although the Charter of the United Nations embodied an unresolved tension between state sovereignty and the inviolability of human rights, the fall of the Berlin Wall seemed to herald universal acceptance of the legitimacy of international concern for the protection of human rights. Since that time, however, the sovereignty of states has been pushed with renewed vigour under the guise of cultural sovereignty. Three examples of the role of cultural sovereignty in the international human rights sphere are proposed to demonstrate that the real interest of states is not the protection of cultural identity, but non-interference, supremacy and control. The paper identifies cultural sovereignty with cultural relativism and argues that the ideology of relativism, combined with the inadequacies of legal positivism, have significantly harmed the efficacy and character of the international human rights regime.     

Sexually Violent Predator Evaluations: Empirical Evidence,Strategies for Professionals,and Research Directions

Several states have passed civil commitment laws that allow the precautionary detention of sex offenders who have completed their criminal sentences. Over 2,500 sex offenders have been committed across states with such statutes and several thousand more sex offenders have been evaluated. Most statutes call for an evaluation of risk by a mental health professional and, although each state statute is worded differently, three main elements common to sexually violent predator evaluations are used to guide evaluators: mental abnormality, volitional capacity, and likelihood of future sexual violence. The current article presents empirical evidence for the main tenants of these forensic evaluations, provides recommendations for evaluators in light of current limitations of evidence, and offers suggestions for future research in this area of forensic assessment.     

Big Stick,Little Stick: Strategies for Controlling and Combating Environmental Crime

Environmental offences often have rather obscure victims. At the same time, we know that those crimes commonly regarded as the most serious have clearly visible victims. It is difficult for people to relate to environmental offences in the same way as many traditional crimes, and this makes it easier to commit breaches of the environmental regulations. One element in a control strategy ought therefore to be continuous attempts to discover really serious environmental crimes that are easily communicated to the public. Regulations are followed if we believe that others also do so. If we have a sense that cheating is widespread then group solidarity is weakened, and with it the inclination to abide by the rules. How then do individuals and businessmen develop the perception that control measures are working? This happens primarily by means of a perception that observance of the regulations is being monitored. Broadly based control measures and contacts are therefore of considerable importance. By means of risk assessment procedures, interventions can then be concentrated where they are judged to be most necessary. A broad arsenal of measures is needed to persuade companies to observe the regulations; an arsenal from big stick to little stick, from self-regulation and service to administrative sanction charges and criminal offences.     

风险代理收费：制度理论与在中国的实践

律师的风险代理费制度在我国也被叫做律师的“胜诉取酬”制度。从该收费方式近些年来在中国的实施情况来看,这种制度对于律师而言,确实“风险”重重。不仅普通法律服务消费者对于该制度存在着种种误解,作为法律专业人士的律师和法官也往往对于该制度存在认识上的不足①。这些情     

Marital Satisfaction and Marital Discord as Risk Markers for Intimate Partner Violence: A Meta-analytic Review

A meta-analysis investigating the relationship between marital satisfaction/discord and intimate partner violence (IPV) in heterosexual relationships was conducted with 32 articles. Overall, a small-to-moderate effect size (r = −0.27) indicated a significant and negative relationship existed between marital satisfaction/discord and IPV. Moderator analyses found no differences between effect size based on construct examined (discord or satisfaction). However, the magnitudes of observed effect sizes were influenced by other moderator variables, including the use of standardized versus non-standardized measures, gender of the offender and victim, role in the violence (perpetrator versus victim), and sample type (clinical versus community). The data suggests that gender is an especially important moderator variable in understanding the relationship between marital satisfaction/discord and IPV.     

Great Expectations: AI and Law as an Issue for Legal Semiotics

Trying to build computerprograms that can assist the practicing lawyerin solving concrete cases is scientificallychallenging and financially attractive. So far,the practical results of such endeavors arerather modest, but that may change. This paperexamines the possible impact in the future ofadvanced advisory software on the semantics andpragmatics of law. Two kinds of computerprograms are discussed, viz., expertsystems and dialogue models. It is argued thatsuch systems may affect adjudication in someimportant ways, and that jurists shouldtherefore develop a more critical attitudetoward the use of such systems. Furthermore, itis argued that the widespread idea that the useof computers leads to more objectivity is onthe whole mistaken. As to the role of computersin legal decision making, the final question isnot: can they do it? But: do we want to let them doit? All this does not mean, however, thatjurists should turn away from ArtificialIntelligence and Law. On the contrary,developments in that field can be highlystimulating for legal theory and legal semiotics.     

Questionable transactions as grounds for legalization: Immigration, illegality, and law

By differentiating between legal and illegal movements, transactions, andpersons, legal prohibitions and law enforcement practices create boundaries between legitimate and illegitimate social spheres. Individuals who are located in an illegitimate domain survive at least in part through unauthorized and quasi-illegal practices. The boundaries between legitimate and illegitimate social domains are, however, permeable, making it possible for individuals who have at one time been deemed illegal to at another time claim legitimacy. This paper examines one context in which such claims are made: deportation hearings in a U.S. immigration court. During deportation hearings, undocumented immigrants' prior involvement in questionable transactions can be deemed an indication of poor moral character or of non-credibility. At the same time, such involvement can be overlooked or reinterpreted in ways that permit an undocumented immigrant to pass from illegality to legality. Close attention to such ``readings' or interpretations reveals that there is a sense in which the proceedings that award and deny legal status are as questionable as other immigration-related transactions.     

Palatal rugae as an individualising marker: reliability for forensic odontology and personal identification

Personal identification is based on the comparison between ante mortem and post mortem data which can be considered unique for each individual: palatal rugae represent a useful element for such a comparison, thanks to their apparent low variability with time and unique patterns. Literature however is scarce.This pilot study aims at assessing the reliability of palatal rugae in time and at developing an identification method based on their comparison. Two casts from the upper dental arch of 39 subjects were obtained in different periods of time; at their first cast, 85.2% of patients were less than 16 years old. The second cast was performed after a period of time which varied between 4 and 65 months later than the first cast. The first cast can be taken to simulate ante mortem information, the second post mortem information. Every cast was then digitised with a scanner. In the digital images the palatal rugae were highlighted by using Adobe® Photoshop® 7.0 software; each image was coded and a comparison between “simulated” ante mortem and post mortem data was performed. In all cases ante mortem and post mortem data from the same individual were correctly matched.The study seems to indicate that this technique is highly reliable and user friendly, even on subadults, where growth processes seem not to affect the specific morphology of palatal rugae.