通胀困境与刘易斯转折点:偶然还是必然

在经济发展阶段超越刘易斯转折点之后不久,中国便陷入由农产品价格推动的通货膨胀困境.实际上,这两者之间存在着内在联系.当经济发展阶段超越刘易斯转折点之后,农业中已不存在剩余劳动力.此时,当农业劳动力持续转入非农部门,必然导致农业生产萎缩,并引发农产品价格上涨;而农产品价格上涨,农业经营收益提高,又会抑制农业劳动力转移规模的增长,并造成非农部门劳动力短缺及其工资成本上升,进而成为推动物价全面上涨的重要因素.要摆脱当前的通胀困境,关键在于稳定农业生产,促进农业技术进步.     

“用工荒”对我国劳动驱动型增长模式的冲击及其转型对策

文章分析了我国＂用工荒＂现象的特点及产生的深层原因,说明了我国劳动力供求关系已经走向和逼近＂刘易斯拐点＂。进而分析了＂用工荒＂给我国传统经济增长方式带来了巨大的挑战,同时也可通过倒逼机制,对促进企业自主创新、转变经济发展方式、推进经济结构优化升级具有积极意义。提出了在＂用工荒＂冲击下实现经济发展方式向内生增长和创新驱动转变的对策建议。     

两岸服务业合作的全球及两岸背景

2008年国际金融危机以来,欧美消费驱动型增长模式难以维持,先后推出再工业化政策,全球贸易保护主义抬头,两岸既有的以欧美市场需求为终点的出口导向型发展模式面临巨大的挑战。大力发展现代服务业,对在当前全球经济结构调整大背景下大陆克服"中等收入陷阱"以及台湾走出"中上等收入困局"均有重要意义,能有效推动两岸经济发展转型,为经济增长提供新动力。     

“刘易斯转折点”被推迟与“民工荒”

近期关于"刘易斯转折点"的讨论多了起来,但声音比较单一,大多是认为"刘易斯转折点"即将到来。而从目前我国农业剩余劳动力的数量和社会经济发展的现实状况来看,"刘易斯转折点"还远没有到来。原因是"民工荒"推迟了"刘易斯转折点"的到来。正确认识这一点并从各个方面有效地解决"民工荒"问题,对促进"刘易斯转折点"的到来有着重要意义。     

我国劳动力市场迎来刘易斯拐点——基于新世纪以来两次“民工荒”的分析

步入21世纪以来,我国从沿海地区到内陆地区陆续出现了"民工荒",并在此基础上发展为全国性劳动力短缺。在当前我国步入"三期叠加"的新常态和国民经济从高速增长向中高速增长战略转轨的背景下,整合相关材料进行综合性的历史分析可以发现,我国农村劳动力的无限供给正在逐渐消失,农村劳动力开始从"无限供给"转入"有限剩余"的新阶段,意味着中国经济迎来其发展的刘易斯拐点。这对我国经济发展既是挑战,更是机遇。因此,应正确认识,科学规划,切实利用这一机遇推动产业结构升级和发展方式转变,为如期实现"两个一百年"的宏伟目标,积极创造有利条件。     

台湾学运背后的经济发展困境

台湾爆发“3·18”学运的一个深刻背景原因是近年经济持续低迷不振。台湾经济困境主要表现在经济增长、物价变动及劳动市场等方面。由于民间消费与投资增长乏力、出口竞争力明显下降、工业生产增幅小、服务业发展不平衡，导致总体经济增长动力明显不足。造成台湾经济困境的原因，除了全球景气衰退与台湾自身结构性问题外，近年台湾经济还面临一些新问题的严峻挑战。一是区域经济整合潮流对台湾的冲击效应日益明显；二是台湾应对大陆经济转型发展乏力；三是经济振兴严重受困于政治因素。台湾突破经济困境的路径，关键在于要排除非经济性因素障碍，深化与大陆经济交流合作，充分利用大陆市场和区域整合来提高自身竞争力。     

陆资入台对台湾经济的影响

随着经济全球化的深化发展与两岸经贸关系对台湾经济发展的贡献与日俱增,特别是为有助于克服当前全球金融危机的不利冲击,台湾当局在开放台资投资大陆18年后宣布开放陆资入台投资。陆资入台投资必将对两岸经贸关系的发展、台湾经济的全球化战略目标以及增长与发展产生重大的影响。     

农业供应链金融成功的四大原因

农业供应链金融之所以成功,是因为有以下几点原因:首先,农业供应链金融化解了我们传统农业系统货币供应短缺的发展瓶颈。按照刘易斯的理论,传统农业是一个劳动力过剩经济系统。但是如果仅仅认为劳动力过剩就输出劳动力,是不合理的。因为这样的话就造成了资本的一方利润很高,而劳动者一方很低,所以贫富差距拉大。此外,传     

台湾经济起飞过程中收入分配均衡化的经验及对大陆的启示

台湾是世界上唯一能够在经历飞速经济增长的同时又在缩小收入差距方面取得重大进展的地区。其主要经验是成功开展土改，大力发展劳动密集型工业，在竞争行业鼓励和推动民营化，重视教育机会的均等。改革开放以来中国大陆经济保持了长期高速增长，成为世界上经济增长最快的国家之一，但社会收入分配差距却越来越大，成为世界上收入分配最不均衡的国家之一。要改善大陆的收入不均衡现状，台湾的经验值得大陆借鉴。     

台湾经济的“内忧与外患”

日前台湾联合报举办“为台湾经济开路高峰会”，讨论与诊断台湾经济发展的症结所在，寻找台湾经济发展的出路。就在此时，台湾经济学者马凯教授却发表奇谈怪论，认为台湾最大危机不是在韩国，而是太过依赖大陆。他表示，台湾这十多年来中上游原料生产在台湾，但下游组装在大陆，出口市场在欧美的经济发展模式，随着大陆5年前决定转变经济发展方式，正严重冲击台湾经济命脉。他进一步表示，“台湾的经济成长率里，高达75％来自大陆的贡献。     

Emergence of the Greater China Circle Economies: Cooperation versus competition

The integration of the so-called greater China economies among Mainland China, Taiwan, and Hong Kong is one part of the global trend of regionalism. The significance of integration in terms of foreign trade and foreign direct investment demonstrates not only rapid growth but also diversity, ever since Mainland China pursued her open door policy of economic reform in 1979. For instance, the combined volume of Hong Kong and Taiwan accounted for as much as 74.1% of Mainland China's capital utilization in 1993, which in turn contributed to the rapid economic growth of Mainland China over the last two decades. The membership of Mainland China and Taiwan to the WTO, as expected by the end of 2001, will facilitate a more official arrangement of intergovernmental coordination within these Triangle Economies. However, the government of Taiwan will continue to evaluate the cross-strait relations in the context of the nation's overall political and economic security as long as the government of Mainland China does not renounce the use of military force against Taiwan.     

China's Future Economic Regionalization

This paper investigates China's economic growth potentials and limitation up to 2020 and recommends a trend of economic regionalization. A sustainable growing economy is a necessity for China's future stability. The growth sustainability of the Chinese economy depends essentially on its continued commitments to institutional reform and economic deregulation. China's relaxation of government intervention in economic activities has led and will be leading China to decentralize its central governmental authority over economic planning and control. This will consequently stimulate the emergence of regional economies in Mainland China. In the next two decades, there will likely be 10 regional economies with relatively independent industrial structures emerging in Greater China (or the Chinese Economic Area of Hong Kong, Macao, Taiwan and the Mainland) as a result of economic liberalization and decentralization.     

Fighting for Migrant Labor Rights in the World's Factory: legitimacy,resource constraints and strategies of grassroots migrant labor NGOs in South China

China's dizzying economic achievement is not mirrored in its labor rights protection record. Migrant workers in particular do not enjoy rights commensurate with their contribution to the economy. The pervasive infringement of labor rights and the failure of the official protective system have jointly created a niche for nongovernmental organizations (NGOs). This article investigates the grassroots migrant labor NGOs in the Pearl River Delta region, an area which has seen unprecedented increases in labor disputes both in terms of quantity and intensity. Making extensive use of in-depth interviews and participatory observations, it examines the strategies and tactics NGOs use for survival and growth in a hostile external environment. This article reveals that administrative illegitimacy and resource shortage have been the two key challenges for grassroots NGOs; in order to survive, they have developed a series of strategies to enhance legitimacy and explore resources. In the meantime, however, antagonistic thinking still drives the government's response to grassroots organizations unless the latter can skillfully balance political ideology and actual operation. Yet, overall, most NGOs still managed to survive despite various difficulties. Reciprocity and mutual trust are of critical importance to peaceful coexistence, if not cooperation, between the state and the grassroots. The building of long-term healthy labor relations in China necessitates more liberal thinking and collaborative governance.     

台湾当局亚太经济战略的演变、动因及影响——基于“一个中国”框架视阈的分析

自上世纪90年代以来,台湾当局的亚太经济战略均以减缓两岸经贸关系发展、挑战＂一个中国＂框架为主轴。马英九上台后,以＂黄金十年＂愿景为蓝图,在＂壮大台湾、连接亚太、布局全球＂的总战略下＂通过大陆走向世界＂,以＂战略平衡＂、＂同步多轨＂、＂官民结合＂等方式推动对外签订双边经济合作协议（ECA）及加入TPP、RCEP等多边经济合作机制。这一战略虽给大陆维护＂一个中国＂框架带来新课题,但总体上保持两岸政经良性互动,稳住两岸关系和平发展大局,并对未来两岸关系发展产生深远影响。     

光复初期（1945-1949）福建与台湾之经济贸易关系

台湾光复以后，福建与台湾两省的关系进入全新的发展阶段。1945-1949年短短四年间，抗战爆发后全面断绝的闽台经贸关系得以迅速恢复和发展。在闽台两省交通、邮电和汇兑恢复的基础上，光复初期的闽台经贸关系在多个层面得到迅猛发展：两省频繁互派经济考察团并举办博览会，商业贸易和物资交换渐趋活跃，技术合作和相互投资蓬勃开展。这一时期的闽台经贸关系，呈现出形式多样、互补性强和受时局影响较大等特点，在一定程度上促进了战后两省社会经济和生产建设的恢复和发展。     

China's macroeconomy: Review and perspective

This article attempts to analyze China's economic development since 1980 by examining major macroeconomic issues. The analyses focus on a central issue: will the Chinese economy maintain high growth and low inflation in the period 1998–2010? To answer this question, the article examines GNP growth, unemployment, external balance, inflation, government budget deficit, and structure changes during the period 1980–1997, and provides an outlook on the economy. If the political situation is stable, China will achieve annual economic growth of 6–7% during 1998–2010, because the major factors that contributed to the high growth during the period 1980–1997 will continue to exist. However, it is less likely that the economic growth will continue at two‐digit level, because new and greater challenges have emerged in the economy: there has been excessive capacity in the industrial sector; it is difficult to maintain a high export growth; and the weak financial sector is highly likely to cause financial instability. Moreover, the increasingly large unemployed population will become a serious problem for both economic development and political stability.     

21世纪以来台湾服务业发展概况及其发展趋势

进入21世纪以来,台湾服务业增长缓慢,开始凸显劳动生产力不高、国际竞争力弱等问题,导致对总体经济成长和社会就业的贡献度偏低,严重制约着台湾经济的转型升级。究其根源,除服务业自身结构性因素外,主要受市场空间狭小和研发投入不足等影响。在台湾当局政策导向下,未来台湾服务业将进一步推进国际化、深化与大陆服务业合作,同时着力“服务业科技化”和“异业合作”以提高发展质量。     

US‐China relations and the Taiwan factor

With the diplomatic warming of US‐China relations, the recent resumption of the Koo — Wang meeting and Taiwan's elections for legislators, mayors, and city councilors, cross‐Taiwan Strait relations are at another historical turning point. While the improvement of US‐China relations tends to relieve both sides from rhetoric exchanges of ‘China threat’ and ‘US‐Taiwan conspiracy’, Clinton's oral declaration of the ‘Three No's’ has raised serious concerns in Taiwan. With such a background, a group of experts and policy‐making participants from the US, Taiwan and Mainland China gathered again at a conference on ‘US‐China Relations and the Taiwan Factor’ in Washington, DC in mid‐October 1998. This was the second episode in a series of symposia on US‐China relations sponsored by the Association of Chinese Political Studies (ACPS). The symposium attempts to provide a free, intimate, and long‐term forum for a group of influential experts with different perspectives from the US, Taiwan and Mainland China. As a result, a deep understanding of common interests has been reached and clear differences have also been recognized through direct dialogue and frank exchange of ideas.     

试论清末台湾铁路的修建——以经费筹措为中心的探讨

台湾铁路的修筑是清末洋务派在台湾开展洋务运动的重要组成部分。在当时清朝政府内外交困、积贫积弱的情况下筹建这样一项耗资巨大的工程,如何解决资金问题一直是凼绕着丰办官员的中心问题。丁日昌囚无经费可用而末及铁路修筑就憾然离去;刘铭传为筹集筑路资金四处奔走,但最终还是因经费不足而不得不改变原先的工程计划;到邵友濂时,更是面临经费紧张的局而,虽然最后千方百计完成了剩余段的铁路修建,但这与最初的筑路计划相差甚远。为修建台湾铁路而进行的筹集资金活动反映了当时在台湾进行洋务运动的艰辛。