From Konfrontasi to Disintegrasi : ASEAN and the Rise of Islamism in Southeast Asia

This article evaluates the development of militant Islamic threats in Southeast Asia from the early 1990s onwards and its security implications for the Association of Southeast Asian Nations (ASEAN). The analysis contends that the extent of extremist Islamic infiltration of the region was obscured by governmental rhetoric, along with much Western opinion, which argued erroneously that ASEAN was following a unique developmental path based on shared regional values that had resulted in economic growth and political stability. However, by ignoring underlying religiously motivated tensions within and among its membership, and by refusing to countenance mature debate about them within their societies, ASEAN has succeeded only in incubating its potential nemesis.     

ASEAN and evolving power relations in East Asia: strategies and constraints

This article seeks to examine constraints and challenges that the Association of Southeast Asian Nations (ASEAN) states are confronted with in formulating and implementing their strategies in response to evolving regional environments represented by the rise of China. It argues that China's southern neighbours have adopted purposeful strategies in order to mitigate potentially negative effects from China's growing capabilities in East Asia. These strategies led to the expansion of membership in the East Asia Summit (EAS) and positive involvement in the Trans-Pacific Partnership (TPP) agreement, encouraging America's substantial commitments to the Asia-Pacific. However, ASEAN has failed to form the unified front on the EAS and TPP because its members have adopted diverse stances on and policies towards the two institutions. Moreover, an identity issue constitutes a crucial impediment to promoting cooperation between ASEAN members and the USA. While Washington has intensified diplomatic linkages with ASEAN, the US identity shown in its adherence to the results-oriented approach still provokes some concerns among the ASEAN members.     

RCEP:特点、问题与前景

作为世界最大的自由贸易安排,RCEP所取得的突破不仅有利于改善区域贸易与投资环境、增强区域供应链、推动经济复苏,还为区域经济一体化、全球贸易自由化、基于规则的多边贸易体制注入了前行的动力。同时,它对中国贸易和投资的可持续发展、高水平制度型开放、实施自由贸易区提升战略、构建国内国际双循环相互促进的新发展格局也可以发挥积极作用。RCEP以市场准入、规则、合作为支柱,具有开放包容、全面、高质量、互惠等诸多特点,并突出东盟方式与东盟中心地位。RCEP的后续生效实施与适时升级,将面临成员差异性与利益诉求复杂性、外部因素牵制、既有FTA规则的多样性与整合的难度、区域身份认同与大国协调等现实问题的挑战,仍需要以渐进灵活的方式,不断推动其深化和拓展。中国应一如既往支持东盟的主导地位,推动RCEP尽快生效。既要助力东盟提升凝聚力、加强大国协调,也要加速推进中日韩FTA谈判、加快与东盟成员的FTA构建。应不断提高规则利用率,充分发挥FTA本应具有的效应,以制度型开放营造良好营商环境,持续推动区域制度性经济一体化。     

Why (most) Indonesian businesses fear the ASEAN Economic Community: struggling with Southeast Asia’s regional corporatism

By the end of 2015 the Association of Southeast Asian Nations (ASEAN) had ushered in a common market, the ASEAN Economic Community (AEC). However, the groups most affected by it – small businesses – were bypassed in the decision-making process. They are the victims of a selectively inclusive state corporatism which member countries have transferred from their domestic political system to the regional level. In this article I argue that the decision to create the AEC was promoted by ASEAN governments together with foreign economic and local corporate interests. This coalition was able to frame the AEC in a way that small businesses perceived it as a win-win scheme. Empirically the article focuses on Indonesia.     

解析日本的东亚外交——从鸠山到菅直人的东亚合作政策

本文阐述日本民主党执政后的东亚外交及其变化,从日本与中韩、日本与东盟、日本与湄公河地区5国、日本与越南的关系等角度,分析鸠山和菅直人两届政府的关于东亚合作的设想及其实施结果,考察其东亚外交在东北亚和东南亚地区的不同表现,及其对中日关系的影响。     

东盟跨境数据流动治理的机制构建

跨境数据流动是全球数字经济的重要基础,也是全球治理的新兴议题。在数字经济发展和东盟区域一体化的趋势下,东盟从统筹数字经济发展与数据保护入手,着眼于提升东盟国际竞争力和话语权,制定并完善跨境数据流动治理机制。这一机制的构建始于新加坡对数据保护规制的探索,基于东盟个人数据保护框架,在东盟数字一体化总体框架下制定数字管理框架,并以“东盟示范合同条款”和“东盟跨境数据流动认证”两大关键手段促进机制落实。该机制具有灵活性、包容性和指导性的特征,有利于促进东盟地区数字经济发展,降低谈判成本与合规成本,获得更多全球竞争优势。对于中国而言,在与东盟跨境数据流动治理机制合作对接方面具备可能性和可行性,需要充分认识和评估东盟机制对世界数字治理的影响、对地区数字经济秩序的挑战,推动中国与东盟之间的数字经济合作。     

ASEAN At 50: the global political economy’s contribution to durability

Why has the Association of Southeast Asian Nations (ASEAN) proved so durable as a regional organisation given the many challenges it has faced since its inception in 1967? This analysis makes use of an historical institutionalist approach. It shows how the global political economy, through the injection of aid and investment and the development of production networks and increased trade, generated a generally positive regional economic environment that encouraged cooperation. It also provided the resources for the gradual institutionalisation of ASEAN and the expansion of its reach through the establishment of associated regional organisations. The result was that these factors, in combination, contributed to ASEAN’s staying power.     

The role of ASEAN institutes of strategic and international studies in developing security cooperation in the Asia‐pacific region

As the Association of Southeast Asian Nations (ASEAN) governments are facing new challenges, the need to re‐evaluate the significance of the track‐two activities has been recognised. As there has been insufficient research on the ASEAN Institutes of Strategic and International Studies (ISIS), this article analyses their role in the development of security cooperation. It shows that ASEAN‐ISIS has contributed to the establishment of the ASEAN Regional Forum (ARF) by analysing the common/cooperative security thinking, the establishment of an inter‐governmental forum for a security dialogue, and the extension of ASEAN's diplomatic style over a larger geographical area. As ASEAN‐ISIS has contributed to inter‐governmental cooperation by promoting ideas, this article concludes that the significance of their activities in contemporary Asian politics should be understood in terms of the introduction and promotion of such innovative ideas.     

The ASEAN way of conflict management: Old patterns and new trends

In the current international environment, greater emphasis is placed on regional and international responses to conflict. ASEAN is widely regarded as one of the most successful regional organisations in this area. This paper identifies the principles and institutional mechanisms for conflict management in ASEAN, and examines the extent to which these have changed in the post‐Cold War era. It argues that ASEAN may face increasing challenges to its policy of conflict avoidance, as more and more conflicts take place within ASEAN countries rather than between them.     

From the ASEAN People's Assembly to the ASEAN Civil Society Conference: the boundaries of civil society advocacy

Civil society organisations (CSOs) have asserted their claim for participation in regional governance in Southeast Asia through multiple forums held since the late-1990s. The two most enduring are the ASEAN People's Assembly (APA), organised by ASEAN-ISIS and held seven times from 2000 to 2009, and the ASEAN Civil Society Conference (ACSC), organised by the Solidarity for Asian People's Advocacy network and held nine times from 2005 to the present. Through comparative analysis of the boundaries of CSO participation in these two events, this article explains why the APA was superseded by the ACSC, and it highlights states' growing intrusions into the ACSC. It argues that states' expanding repertoire of tactics to direct the ACSC has seen the structure of CSO participation in this event recast, challenging the view of the ACSC as an independent space for advocacy and indicating the hollowness of ASEAN's commitments to creating a ‘people-oriented’ Association.     

Democratisation and the prospects for participatory regionalism in Southeast Asia

This article explores the impact of democratic transitions in Southeast Asia on regional co-operation, and the relationship between this process and the development of a non-official regionalism. Until now, regionalism in Southeast Asia has been essentially elite-centred and politically illiberal. The emergence of the Association of Southeast Asian Nations was founded upon the common desire of its members, which had by then retreated significantly from their postcolonial experiments in liberal democracy, to ensure regime survival. This orientation was further institutionalised by asean 's doctrine of non-interference, which helped to shield its members from outside pressures towards democratisation. But with democratisation in the Philippines, Thailand and more recently Indonesia, the asean model of elite-centric regional socialisation has been challenged. The civil society in the region demands greater openness in Southeast Asian regionalism. The article proposes a conceptual framework for analysing the relationship between democratisation and regionalism, with the key argument being that the displacement of traditional patterns of regional elite socialisation has been offset by potential gains such as advances in regional conflict management, transparency and rule-based interactions. But the realisation of a more 'participatory regionalism' in Southeast Asia faces a number of barriers, including obstacles to further democratisation, the continued salience of the non-interference doctrine and the diminished space for civil society in the wake of the 11 September terrorist attacks.     

台湾与东盟经济关系发展新趋势、成因与前景分析

近几年来台湾与东盟经济关系呈现出一些新的发展趋势，主要表现为台湾对东盟投资额和双方贸易额快速增长，东盟在台湾对外经贸格局中的地位不断攀升以及双方经贸交流合作日益密切，其中台湾与新加坡率先签订“经济伙伴协议”，标志着台湾与东盟国家的经济关系迈入新的发展阶段。双方经济关系的快速发展是东盟经济的“引力”、大陆经济转型升级的“推力”、两岸关系和平发展和台湾当局政策“助力”这三股力量共同作用的结果。未来台湾与东盟经贸往来有望继续保持平稳发展态势，东盟对台湾经济重要性将持续上升，台湾也将东盟及主要国家列为对外商签VrA的重点对象，但可预见的是，双方经济关系将继续在“一个中国”框架内运行，且不会从根本上影响两岸经济关系发展大局。     

The family state: a non-realist approach to understanding Indonesia’s foreign policy

ABSTRACT

The existing literature on Indonesia’s foreign policy has excluded the state from the category of an agent which shapes the country’s external affairs. This trend certainly ignores the notion that foreign policy is a unique state activity taking place in the interface between domestic and international politics. To fill the gap, this article explores the idea about the family state and looks at its influence on the conduct of Indonesia’s international relations. The argument is that the family state pursues order in international society in which sovereignty can be maintained. Indonesia plays the role of an order-maker in Southeast Asia through the Association of South East Asian Nations (ASEAN). The order-oriented actions are displayed by Jakarta’s diplomacy to resolve border disputes with neighbouring countries in the region.     

Financial crises as catalysts for regional cooperation? Chances and obstacles for financial integration in ASEAN+3, MERCOSUR and the eurozone

This article compares and analyses the different answers from the Association of Southeast Asian Nations+3 (ASEAN+3), Mercado Común del Dur (MERCOSUR) and the eurozone on financial crises in their respective regions. All three regions were hit by economic turmoil between 1997 and 2012, but whereas ASEAN+3 and the eurozone answered with establishing regional liquidity arrangements (RLAs) in order to fight future crises, financial cooperation did not take off in MERCOSUR. Thus, the paper asks why some regions establish RLAs in cases of crisis and others do not. It argues that the variance of regional financial integration in different world regions is due to different interests of regional powers in their respective regions. The regional powers of ASEAN+3 and the eurozone are institutionally and/or economically highly embedded within their respective regions, but this is not the case for Brazil in MERCOSUR. China and Japan suffered from negative externalities of the Asian crisis, and, consequently, have had an interest to stabilize their neighbours’ economies after the crisis. In contrast, Brazil was able to follow a beggar-thy-neighbour strategy at the turn of the millennium, which externalized some of the costs of Brazil's own economic crisis towards Argentina. As a result, Brazil has had no interest in providing liquidity for its regional neighbours after the crisis. France and Germany are not only economically but also institutionally highly embedded in the eurozone because they share a common currency with their regional neighbours. Thus, the stability of the eurozone is a vital interest for Europe's regional powers, and they devote significant resources to stabilize the economies of the eurozone's periphery.     

Globalization and economic disparities in East and Southeast Asia: New dilemmas

The once high-performing East Asian economies were suddenly rocked by the 1997 financial crisis. This raised the question of whether the crisis signals the end of the 'Asian development model' and provides further evidence of the 'globalization of poverty'. This article attempts to answer this question by examining the connection between liberalization (and deregulation) and the pattern of poverty reduction and income inequalities in four East and Southeast Asian economies severly affected by the late 1990s crisis. Based on the findings, it contests the view that globalization means the end of the role of the state. Instead, it is argued that, while some states are playing the role of promoters of the globalization process, others are redefining and resisting globalization. The crisis also has drawn attention to a possible third policy option, which would involve the revitalization of the regulatory role of the state, greater attention to social issues and a more national approach to economic management.     

Compliance and non-compliance as sources of recognition: Slovakia and NATO

This article argues that there is a difference in what constitutes the sources of recognition prior to countries' membership in the Euro-Atlantic community represented by NATO and after countries become its members. While prior to membership, countries are recognized for their compliance with NATO standards and policies, upon membership countries get the opportunity to promote specific interests legitimately and may seek recognition via non-compliance with NATO mainstream.The paper explores this dynamic of recognition on the issue of Kosovo independence where Slovakia went from supporting NATO in its effort to protect civilians in Kosovo in the late 1990s to non-recognition of Kosovo in defiance of the majority of NATO member states less than a decade later. The crucial point proposed here is that there was a shift in how recognition by NATO worked prior to Slovakia's membership and upon membership in these frameworks. While prior to membership recognition was achieved by compliance and identification with NATO standpoints, policies and actions, upon membership, recognition is achieved by differentiation from these patterns. More generally, the study shows that NATO membership is a powerful source of conditionality in relation to future members and a powerful source of legitimacy in relation to current members' actions. While this has been discussed in the literature, the point here is that recognition in its various forms is an important driving force in these conditionality processes.     

Is Economic Growth Increasing Disparities? A Multidimensional Analysis of Poverty in the Lao PDR between 2003 and 2013

The Asian story of miraculous growth and poverty reduction has reinforced mainstream views of development that equate high and sustained economic growth with progress in human wellbeing. But understanding development only in terms of economic growth is not sufficient. This paper offers a different perspective on possible effects of Laos’s transition from a subsistence-oriented economy to a market-oriented economy. We used a multidimensional poverty approach with panel data for the years between 2003 and 2013. Findings suggest that benefits were not equally distributed: 50 per cent of people moved in and out of poverty, and the other half was either non-poor (37%) or always poor (13%).     

Southeast Asia and the politics of vulnerability

The economic and political crises that have engulfed Southeast Asia over recent years should not have come as such a surprise. A consideration of the region's historical position and economic development demonstrates just what formidable obstacles still constrain the nations of Southeast Asia as they attempt to restore growth and stability. This paper places the Southeast Asian experience in historical context, outlines the political and economic obstacles that continue to impede development, and considers some of the initiatives that have been undertaken at a regional level in the attempt to maintain a degree of stability and independence. Despite the novelty and potential importance of initiatives like the Asean +3 grouping, this paper argues that the continuing economic and strategic vulnerability of the Southeast Asian states will continue to profoundly shape their politics and limit their options.     

The ASEAN free trade area and the construction of a Southeast Asian economic community in East Asia

In October 2003, ASEAN leaders decided to establish an ASEAN Economic Community (AEC) by 2020. An AEC is presented by advocates as a logical step following the completion of the ASEAN Free Trade Area (AFTA) by ASEAN6 in 2003. Adopting a critical political economy approach inspired by the work of Mitchell Bernard and Robert W. Cox, this article argues that the decision to launch AFTA and an AEC are motivated primarily by the desire to transform Southeast Asia into an investment site and a production base for the world market within East Asia, in competition with China. AFTA and a future AEC are decisions taken within the structural context of an East Asian region characterised, among others, by the organisation of Japanese production and the developmental state.     

The new face of developing country debt

Developing country debt has been a major preoccupation for development policy makers and practitioners since the debt crisis of 1982. It is a major obstacle to economic and social progress in developing countries. After the resolution of the Asian financial crisis of the late 1990s and the debt relief initiatives for low-income countries of 1997–2006 concerns about developing country debt seem to have receded. However, there are a growing number of problems that warrant concern, including the accumulation of domestic debt, short-term debt and private non-guaranteed debt, and increasing recourse by low-income countries to international capital markets. At the same time developing countries have strengthened their capacity to oversee and analyse their debt portfolios. Nonetheless, significant weaknesses remain in debt management capacity at the national level. Moreover, the activities of ‘vulture funds’ and the lack of a sovereign debt restructuring mechanism reveal major shortcomings in the international institutional architecture that need to be addressed urgently.