The linking of burglary crimes using offender behaviour: Testing research cross‐nationally and exploring methodology

Purpose. The current study tests whether existing behavioural case linkage findings from the United Kingdom (UK) will replicate abroad with a sample of residential burglaries committed in Finland. In addition, a previously discussed methodological issue is empirically explored. Methods. Seven measures of behavioural similarity, geographical proximity, and temporal proximity are calculated for pairs of burglary crimes committed by 117 serial burglars in Finland. The ability of these seven measures to distinguish between pairs of crimes committed by the same offender (linked pairs) and different offenders (unlinked pairs) is tested using logistic regression and receiver operating characteristic (ROC) analysis. Two methodologies for forming the unlinked pairs are compared; one representing the ‘traditional’ approach used by research and, the other, a new approach that represents a potentially more realistic and statistically sound approach to testing case linkage. Results. A wider range of offender behaviours were able to distinguish between linked and unlinked crime pairs in the current Finnish sample than in previous UK‐based research. The most successful features were the kilometre‐distance between crimes (the intercrime distance), the number of days separating offences (temporal proximity), and a combination of target, entry, internal, and property behaviours (the combined domain). There were no statistically significant differences between the two methodological approaches. Conclusions. The current findings demonstrate that a wider range of offender behaviours can be used to discriminate between linked and unlinked residential burglary crimes committed in Finland than in the UK. The use of a more realistic and statistically sound methodology does not lead to substantial changes in case linkage findings.     

Linking commercial burglaries by modus operandi: tests using regression and ROC analysis.

This paper uses statistical models to test directly the police practice of utilising modus operandi to link crimes to a common offender. Data from 86 solved commercial burglaries committed by 43 offenders are analysed using logistic regression analysis to identify behavioural features that reliably distinguish between linked and unlinked crime pairs. Receiver operating characteristic analysis is then used to assign each behavioural feature an overall level of predictive accuracy. The results indicate that certain features, in particular the distances between burglary locations, lead to high levels of predictive accuracy. This study therefore reveals some of the important consistencies in commercial burglary behaviour. These have theoretical value in helping to explain criminal activity. They also have practical value by providing the basis for a diagnostic tool that could be used in comparative case analysis.     

Testing the impact of group offending on behavioural similarity in serial robbery

Behavioural case linkage assumes that offenders behave in a similar way across their crimes. However, group offending could impact on behavioural similarity. This study uses robbery data from two police forces to test this by comparing the behavioural similarity of pairs of lone offences (LL), pairs of group offences (GG) and pairs of offences where one crime was committed alone and the other in a group (GL). Behavioural similarity was measured using Jaccard's coefficients. Kruskal–Wallis tests were used to examine differences between the three categories within the linked samples. No statistically significant differences were found for linked GG compared to linked LL pairs. However, differences emerged between GL and the other categories for some behaviours (especially control) suggesting caution should be applied when linking group and lone offences committed by the same perpetrator. Differences between linked and unlinked pairs were assessed using receiver operating characteristic. The results suggest it is possible to distinguish between linked and unlinked pairs based on behaviour especially within the GG and LL categories. There were, however, fewer significant findings for the GL sample, suggesting there may be issues linking crimes where the offender commits one crime as part of a group and the other alone.     

A Test of Case Linkage Principles with Solved and Unsolved Serial Rapes

Case linkage involves identifying crime series on the basis of behavioral similarity and distinctiveness. Research regarding the behavioral consistency of serial rapists has accumulated; however, it has its limitations. One of these limitations is that convicted or solved crime series are exclusively sampled whereas, in practice, case linkage is applied to unsolved crimes. Further, concerns have been raised that previous studies might have reported inflated estimates of case linkage effectiveness due to sampling series that were first identified based on similar modus operandi (MO), thereby overestimating the degree of consistency and distinctiveness that would exist in naturalistic settings. We present the first study to overcome these limitations; we tested the assumptions of case linkage with a sample containing 1) offenses that remain unsolved, and 2) crime series that were first identified as possible series through DNA matches, rather than similar MO. Twenty-two series consisting of 119 rapes from South Africa were used to create a dataset of 7021 crime pairs. Comparisons of crime pairs that were linked using MO vs. DNA revealed significant, but small differences in behavioral similarity with MO-linked crimes being characterized by greater similarity. When combining these two types of crimes together, linked pairs (those committed by the same serial offender) were significantly more similar in MO behavior than unlinked pairs (those committed by two different offenders) and could be differentiated from them. These findings support the underlying assumptions of case linkage. Additional factors thought to impact on linkage accuracy were also investigated.     

Using data on offender mobility in ecological research

This article presents some findings on neighborhood structure, police recorded crime, and offender mobility for the city of Utrecht, the Netherlands. The highest crime rates were found in the inner-city neighborhoods. The findings further show that the occurrence of different types of petty crime in residential neighborhoods is associated with different neighborhood characteristics. It was found that offenders reside predominantly in lower-social status neighborhoods. Using data on offender mobility it is shown that violent crime and vandalism are the more locally committed crimes, as compared to residential burglary and other property crime. Finally, it is proposed that data on offender mobility can be used to gain more insight into the link between certain neighborhood characteristics and crime.     

How do college students in Ukraine and the United States view criminal offenders?

This paper introduces an original data set that provides insight into how Ukrainian and US college students would punish criminal offenders. Students on four campuses in Ukraine and four in the United States completed surveys that help us better understand these differences. In general, Ukrainian students are more likely than American students to be crime victims than are American students and they are consistently more fearful of being victimised. Ukrainian students are more punitive than American students for some types of crimes (e.g., drug possession) while Americans are more punitive on other crimes (e.g., burglary).     

The development of a filter model for prioritising suspects in burglary offences

Abstract

This paper discusses the development of a filter model for prioritizing possible links in dwelling burglary. The filters utilize the central aspects of crime scene information that is available and accessible to investigators in burglary, namely geo-spatial, temporal, behavioural, and dwelling information. The proposed filters were analysed using a sample of 215 dwelling burglaries committed by 43 serial burglars (i.e. 5 offences each) in order to determine the sequence in which the filters should be considered in prioritizing possible linked offences. The results indicated that the following order (i.e. better performance to worse performance) was most effective at linking offences, utilizing: (1) geo-spatial information, (2) temporal aspects, (3) behavioural information and, lastly, (4) dwelling characteristics. Specifically, the results indicated that offences in close proximity to one another should be given priority. Further, any offence occurring within a 28-day span before or after the index offence should be given priority. The paper argues that behavioural and dwelling characteristics are less effective for linking than geo-spatial and temporal information because the former two aspects are influenced significantly by situational and contextual cues on offender decision-making.     

The psychology of linking crimes: A review of the evidence

Purpose . This paper is concerned with case linkage, a form of behavioural analysis used to identify crimes committed by the same offender, through their behavioural similarity. Whilst widely practised, relatively little has been published on the process of linking crimes. This review aims to draw together diverse published studies by outlining what the process involves, critically examining its underlying psychological assumptions and reviewing the empirical research conducted on its viability. Methods . Literature searches were completed on the electronic databases, PsychInfo and Criminal Justice Abstracts, to identify theoretical and empirical papers relating to the practice of linking crimes and to behavioural consistency. Results . The available research gives some support to the assumption of consistency in criminals' behaviour. It also suggests that in comparison with intra‐individual variation in behaviour, inter‐individual variation is sufficient for the offences of one offender to be distinguished from those of other offenders. Thus, the two fundamental assumptions underlying the practice of linking crimes, behavioural consistency and inter‐individual variation, are supported. However, not all behaviours show the same degree of consistency, with behaviours that are less situation‐dependent, and hence more offender‐initiated, showing greater consistency. Conclusions . The limited research regarding linking offenders' crimes appears promising at both a theoretical and an empirical level. There is a clear need, however, for replication studies and for research with various types of crime.     

FEAR OF CRIME IN RESIDENTIAL COMMUNITIES

Three variables were hypothesized to cause a fear of crime and a potential change in behavior. These were: (1) crimes against a person rather than crimes against property; (2) a crime committed in an area frequented rather than a crime occurring in an area one never entered; (3) a recurring crime rather than a crime that occurred once. Two different samples of female subjects (n = 249) were approached at their residences and were asked to read one of a number of fictitious crime stories that the news media supposedly had not reported and to complete two scales measuring: (1) an emotional response to crime and (2) a potential behavioral response to crime. The results indicate that a physical assault produces both more fear and more potential behavioral change than a burglary. A crime that occurs eight times causes people to consider taking precautions in comparison to a crime that occurs once. There is some evidence that a crime in an area one frequents causes more fear than a crime occurring in an area one never enters.     

Sequential angulation,spatial dispersion and consistency of distance attack patterns from home in serial murder,rape and burglary

Abstract

Three related measures of spatial movement (sequential angulation, spatial dispersion and consistency of distance in attack target) were compared across three serial offence types: serial homicide (n=35), serial rape (n=41) and serial burglary (n=30). In each case, each offender had committed at least five offences. “Spatial dispersion”, defined as the extent to which an offender distributes his offences across either a focused or relatively more evenly distributed area, revealed that burglary was less evenly distributed (i.e. more focused) than rape and murder. “Sequential angulation”, defined as the degree of rotational movement around the home of the offender from one offence to the next, revealed that serial murderers have higher angulation scores than do rapists who, in turn, have higher angulation scores than burglars. Lastly, a comparison of the offender's consistency in the relative distance travelled from home to each attack site (“consistency of distance in attack target”) was relatively similar across the three groups. This was despite the comparison of different serial offence types from disparate geographical areas. The supposition that differences in dispersion and sequential angulation scores across crime types are related to the perceived risk of the crime has been confirmed. The specificity and the mobility of the targets are also discussed.     

Guardianship and residential burglary

Guardianship is a key element in the routine activities approach to understanding crime. This paper examines the effects of guardianship on residential burglary. Several features distinguish these analyses from prior work: 1) both primary and proxy guardianship are included: 2) a more direct indicator of primary guardianship is used; and 3) the effects of guardianship on both the initial risk of burglary and the probability that the crime will be completed are examined. The findings suggest that the effects of guardianship on residential burglary may have been underestimated in prior research. The analyses also show that a complete understanding of the effects of guardianship—especially proxy guardianship—on the entire burglary process will require simultaneous consideration of victimization and offending perspectives.     

Urban crime rates and the changing face of immigration: Evidence across four decades

Research has shown little support for the enduring proposition that increases in immigration are associated with increases in crime. Although classical criminological and neoclassical economic theories would predict immigration to increase crime, most empirical research shows quite the opposite. We investigate the immigration-crime relationship among metropolitan areas over a 40 year period from 1970 to 2010. Our goal is to describe the ongoing and changing association between immigration and a broad range of violent and property crimes. Our results indicate that immigration is consistently linked to decreases in violent (e.g., murder) and property (e.g., burglary) crime throughout the time period.     

犯罪剖绘:科学还是艺术?

犯罪剖绘(criminal profiling)为分析(连续)犯罪行为型态的技术,藉由统计技术分析潜在犯罪者、被害者与犯罪现场迹证等三者之间相互联结可能性。然犯罪剖绘技术应用至案件连结分析,可根据犯罪现场所遗留迹证(含心理迹证),预测/推论犯罪者之人口背景特征,并将这些案件之犯罪现场迹证系统化处理,建构成数据库,有助警察侦办连续型犯罪。经由案件连结分析所得证据,能否成为法庭上论罪之依据,在英美国家必须通过Frye法则与Daubert测试法则检验,即是否已经通过科学性检验,或同一学术领域同侪认可验证过程。因此,后续研究可朝更精确统计分析方法迈进,以提升案件连结分析数据库对于预测未发现犯罪者之准确率及其法庭证据力。     

REPORTING CRIME TO THE POLICE, 1973–2005: A MULTIVARIATE ANALYSIS OF LONG-TERM TRENDS IN THE NATIONAL CRIME SURVEY (NCS) AND NATIONAL CRIME VICTIMIZATION SURVEY (NCVS)*

Although many efforts have been made during the past several decades to increase the reporting of crime to the police, we know little about the nature of long-term crime-reporting trends. Most research in this area has been limited to specific crime types (e.g., sexual assault), or it has not taken into account possible changes in the characteristics of incidents associated with police notification. In this article, we advance knowledge about long-term trends in the reporting of crime to the police by using data from the National Crime Survey (NCS) and the National Crime Victimization Survey (NCVS) and methods that take into account possible changes in the factors that affect reporting at the individual and incident level as well as changes in survey methodology. Using data from 1973 to 2005, our findings show that significant increases have occurred in the likelihood of police notification for sexual assault crimes as well as for other forms of assault and that these increases were observed for violence against women and violence against men, stranger and nonstranger violence, as well as crimes experienced by members of different racial and ethnic groups. The reporting of property victimization (i.e., motor vehicle theft, burglary, and larceny) also increased across time. Overall, observed increases in crime reporting account for about half of the divergence between the NCVS and the Uniform Crime Reporting Program (UCR) in the estimated magnitude of the 1990s crime decline—a result that highlights the need to corroborate findings about crime trends from multiple data sources.     

ON THE CAUSES OF "WHITE-COLLAR" CRIME: AN ASSESSMENT OF HIRSCHI AND GOTTFREDSON'S CLAIMS

This article assesses Hirschi and Gottfredson claims about patterns and explanations of White-collar crime. It points out several flaws in their analysis and shows (1) that the UCR offense categories of fraud and forgery are not appropriate indicators of white-collar or occupational crime because the typical arrestee in these categories committed a nonoccupational crime; (2) that the demographic distribution (age, sex, race) of these "white-collar" crimes is not the same as it is for most ordinary crimes; and (3) that the occurrence of these "white-collar" crimes is not relatively rare. The implications of the findings for research and theory on crime are also discussed.     

On the Origins of the Violent Neighborhood: A Study of the Nature and Predictors of Crime‐Type Differentiation across Chicago Neighborhoods

Little of the literature on crime at the neighborhood level examines whether and why some crime types predominate in a given neighborhood over other types. Many macro‐level theories do make predictions about the sort of crimes that occur in some neighborhoods, although they remain largely untested. This study focuses on one of these theories, differential opportunity, and its predictions about the making of violent neighborhoods. Drawing on various data sources, this inquiry determines whether crime profiles differ across Chicago neighborhoods—that is, whether there is significant variation across neighborhoods on ratio of violent crimes to other crime types. Next, it also investigates whether the structural factors implicated in the differential opportunity perspective distinguish these neighborhoods or only predict the incidence of crime. The results reveal significant differences in the distribution of crimes across neighborhoods, as well as show that certain factors identify neighborhoods that favor violence over other crimes.     

Offender as Forager? A Direct Test of the Boost Account of Victimization

Recent research has demonstrated that burglary clusters in space and time, resulting in temporal changes in crime hotspot patterns. Offender foraging behavior would yield the observed pattern. The offender as forager hypothesis is tested by analyzing patterns in two types of acquisitive crime, burglary and theft from motor vehicle (TFMV). Using a technique developed to detect disease contagion confirms that both crime types cluster in space and time as predicted, but that the space–time clustering of burglary is generally independent of that for TFMV. Police detections indicate that crimes of the same type occurring closest to each other in space and time are those most likely to be cleared to the same offender(s), as predicted. The implications of the findings for crime forecasting and crime linkage are discussed.

A city-level analysis of property crime clearance rates

Theft, burglary, and vehicle theft are among the most frequently committed and least commonly cleared Part I offenses in the United States, but have received disproportionately little attention in the clearance literature. This study contributes to recent efforts to remedy this shortage by presenting offense-specific analyses of burglary, larceny, and vehicle theft clearance rates in a sample of 110 large US cities. Data were gathered from the Uniform Crime Report, the Law Enforcement Management and Administrative Statistics survey, and the American Community Survey. Independent variables comprised social disorganization measures (e.g. residential instability, poverty, etc.) and policing variables, including the use of broken windows policing. Although broken windows policing is related to higher clearance rates in a few prior studies, that effect was not observed in the present work. Racial diversity and police spending per capita (which were negatively associated with clearance rates) were the only variables that were significantly associated with the clearance of all three crimes.     

American Indians and sentencing disparity: An Arizona test

Although a proliferation of research exists examining the extent to which African American criminal defendants receive more harsh sentences relative to Caucasians, comparatively little research has examined the issue of discrimination in relation to other minority groups. This article examines disparities in sentence length received between American Indian and Caucasian inmates incarcerated in Arizona state correctional facilities. Regression analyses were used to predict the sentences received by American Indian and Caucasian inmates convicted of six crimes (homicide, sexual assault, robbery, assault, burglary, and larceny). After prior felony record and other demographic variables were controlled in these crime-specific models, the crimes of robbery and burglary were the only crimes in which American Indians received longer sentences than Caucasians convicted of the same offense. Caucasian defendants received significantly longer sentences than American Indians for cases of homicide. A defendant's prior felony record was the only variable that consistently increased the length of sentence received by defendants across all types of crime. These findings are discussed and interpreted using various theoretical arguments.     

The Relationship Between Deprivation and Forensic Opportunities with Stolen Vehicles

Abstract:  Collection and interpretation of forensic intelligence (primarily through DNA and fingerprint identifications) is an integral part of the investigation of criminal offenses ranging from burglary and vehicle crime to major crime. The forensic contribution depends not only on the successful recovery of material, but also the ability to identify potential offenders and apply this intelligence to solve the crime. This study examines burglary and vehicle crimes investigated by Northamptonshire Police (U.K.) by analyzing relationships between deprivation of a crime location and the recovery and identification of DNA and fingerprint material. The results show that, for stolen vehicles, although significantly more forensic material (both DNA and fingerprints) is recovered and identified in more deprived neighborhoods, this does not lead to a corresponding increase in solved cases. These findings are considered in relation to previous studies, which have advocated the prioritization of resources at crime scenes most likely to yield forensic material.