围绕制宪与修宪的较量——兼论巴基斯坦宗教与政治的关系

要比较准确地理解伊斯兰教对巴基斯坦政治生活影响的程度，就必须回头追溯巴基斯坦建国后世俗力量和宗教力量围绕制定宪法而展开的大辩论，它最终的结果是1956年的宪法，这是双方的一次艰难妥协；双方此后围绕修宪而进行两次较量（1962，1973）。至此，国家的基本法制框架已经初步形成，1970年代以后的一系列法令，只是完善了建立在妥协基础之上的双重法律体制，英印性质的现代主义法律在其中依然占居主导地位。     

Gaiatsu and Japan's Foreign Aid: Rethinking theReactive–Proactive Debate

This article examines the role of the United States in Japan's foreign aid policy. The Japanese government often alters its course of action under U.S. pressure even if doing so would apparently undermine its own interests. Japan's unusual responsiveness to U.S. preferences appears counterintuitive given the fact that at least in the realm of foreign aid Japan's power clearly surpassed that of the United States. This article posits that Japan's responsiveness stems in large part from the asymmetry of interdependence between the two countries. After critically reviewing the existing literature, it conducts two case studies to examine the validity of the argument. The article concludes that the United States played a crucial role but Japan's responsiveness to American pressure reflects an act of will rather than a lack of coherent policy stemming from bureaucratic politics. The findings have important implications to the ongoing debate over whether Japan is a "reactive state."     

Islamic extremism and the peace process

This article first discusses the negative attitude of Islamic radical groups toward Israel and the peace process. It then presents an assessment of the long run potential of the Islamic radicals, as well as their present politico‐military capabilities to harm the peace process. The article focuses on the capacity of Islamic radicals to subvert or intimidate the pro‐peace Arab regimes, wage war and develop nuclear capabilities. It ends with some observations on how the activities of Islamic extremists influence the ongoing political debate in Israel on the future of the peace process.     

Russia and NATO expansion: The uneasy basis of the founding act

Much of the debate since the formation of the Common Foreign and Security Policy has focused on the political will, or lack thereof, as the principal obstacle to a successful European security policy. However, even if a cohesive will to develop a clear and operational foreign and security policy exists, the lack of military capabilities within the EU would make the implementation of that policy difficult, if not impossible, for the foreseeable future. The emerging political will to develop a CFSP needs to be paralleled by significant improvements in the force projection capabilities of the EU member states in order for a CFSP and future Common Defence Policy to be credible.     

China views the revised US-Japan Defense Guidelines: popping the cork?

This paper considers whether an alliance can have a reassuranceeffect on a third-party. It uses hypotheses derived from balance-of-powerrealism and a revised version of balance-of-threat theory calledbalance-of-malevolence theory. Using the revised 1997 US–JapanDefense Guidelines as a primary case, Chinese reactions arefound to provide greater support for balance-of-malevolencetheory. Side-evidence from Japan's decision in the early 1990sto begin deploying troops overseas to participate in humanitarianand UN peacekeeping operations, and its dispatch of naval shipsto the Indian Ocean in the wake of 9-11, confirm the centralityof Chinese concerns about Japan's disposition as a militarypower and the reassurance value of the US alliance and other‘containment frameworks’ such as UN peacekeeping.This also suggests that the demonstration effect of benign overseasdeployments can be effective in overcoming negative attributionsabout a state's disposition as a military power.     

试论新世纪日本对东盟的外交政策

新世纪日本对东盟的外交政策,摆脱了经济外交的单一性,在发展经济关系的基础上,取得了区域合作的突破性进展,并加强与东盟的政治对话、安全合作以及军事交流,旨在主导亚洲经济一体化,扩大在东南亚地区的政治势力和军事安全影响,并争取成为安理会常任理事国和国际社会的重要一极,逐步实现政治大国的目标。     

TPP的内容、特点与日本参加的难题

自美国总统奥巴马在2009年11月14日访日时宣布美国将加入泛太平洋战略经济伙伴关系协定(TPP)以来,在一些APEC成员纷纷对TPP采取积极态度的情况下,日本也一直考虑参加TPP的问题。参加TPP有利于日本出口产业扩大出口,而对日本农业却会造成严重的打击。因此,日本国内出现了强烈的反对意见,主张参加者和反对参加者各执一词,争论不休,致使日本政府举棋不定,难下决断。至今尚未取得突破性进展,关键的问题在于日本农业改革的前景不容乐观。     

Power and Paradox: Asian Geopolitics and Sino-American Relations in the 21 Century

The pattern of Asian geopolitics can be examined by employing three analytical perspectives. The first employs East Asia and the vigorous debate over the meaning of the rise of China as an intellectual prism to observe the currents of geopolitical continuity and change that are currently abroad in the Asian region. The second explores the extent to which the interacting forces of geopolitics and military modernization foster the rise of new force projection capabilities that may affect the strategic environment in Asia—particularly in East Asia. Here, the focus is mainly on the arsenals of the three indigenous Asian giants, China, Japan and India, all of whom have developed, or are in the process of developing, significant air and maritime assets whose operations have the potential to intersect in East and South East Asia. Russia is not as much a presence because it no longer possesses its powerful Soviet-era Pacific Fleet and has, in essential respects, retreated to its traditional role as a Eurasian land power.¹ The third examines the future of Sino-American relations in Asia in the context of the debate over China's ascent and U. S. decline—a discussion that has intensified since the implosion of the U.S. financial system in 2008 and the onset of the worst global recession since the 1930s.     

French defence reforms after Kosovo: On track or derailed?

How well prepared has France been politically for the operational implications of its efforts to build a military instrument designed for extra‐territorial interventions such as that conducted by NATO in Yugoslavia in 1999? Did the prolonged bombing campaign and the question of deploying ground troops provoke severe criticism and controversies? This article assesses the French Kosovo debate both in the political centre and the broader elite public. The analysis finds that the new French military instrument receives solid backing from key policymakers who now race to claim parenthood of the military reform programme. The utility of a new military instrument was at one stage developing into a major concern to the elite public. However, an engineered anti‐American agenda hijacked the debate, failed to address military issues, and ultimately could not mobilize the elite public. The conclusion outlines that an energized political centre has an opportunity to press ahead with military reforms but also points out that the relationship between France, Europe, and NATO requires careful political management.     

‘Old’ un peacekeeping principles and ‘new’ conflicts: Some ideas to reduce the troubles of post‐cold war peace missions

The European Union (EU) has declared its European Security and Defence Policy (ESDP) operational. It has put the institutional structures in place to manage the political aspects of security and defence policy and the member-states have pledged a range of military capabilities, which the EU may call upon. However there are significant issues that need to be resolved for the ESDP to be a truly effective and credible policy. On the whole, these issues revolve around military capabilities, defence spending and a strategic concept. Without investing in critical military capabilities and without a clear direction, ESDP will become a policy without substance.     

试析安倍“有主见的外交”及面临的挑战

"有主见的外交"的新理念是安倍首相面对小泉内阁外交的困境和僵局寻求突破的产物,既是对小泉内阁外交路线的一种修正,也是安倍首相个人风格特点的一种彰显。其基本内涵包括:加强亚洲外交改善睦邻关系,提升欧洲外交拓宽战略空间,维持日美同盟提高自身地位,扩大国际影响加大"争常"力度。这一理念对新内阁以来的日本外交已经产生了一定的积极影响,但受制于国内国际诸多因素,也面临着严峻的挑战。     

“I SEE DEAD PEOPLE”: AIR-RAID PHOBIA AND BRITAIN'S BEHAVIOR IN THE MUNICH CRISIS

Arguments about the importance of democracy for international behavior assume that states rely on military organizations rather than “hired guns.” With the growth of the private security market this assumption no longer holds true. Focusing on the United States, we use original data to compare the impacts of using private military/security forces and military forces on attributes identified as endemic to democracies: constitutionalism, transparency, and public consent. Our evidence indicates that forces raised via contract are harder to learn about and thus less transparent than military forces. Largely due to lowered transparency, Congress has a harder time exercising its constitutional role, which impedes constitutionalism. Finally, though the public is just as sensitive to the deaths of private forces as it is to military deaths, it is less likely to know about them. Thus the lack of transparency also circumvents meaningful public consent. We conclude with a consideration of the potential implications of these changes for U.S. foreign policy.     

Follower at the Frontier: International Competition and Japanese Industrial Policy

A dominant orthodoxy in political-economic analyses of international competition is to highlight how national industrial performance and the competitive balance between nations are determined by domestic features of national political economies. In contrast, this article reverses these causal arrows by highlighting how the international competitive environment itself can shape and reshape domestic and state structures. Japan's high-profile, large-scale national research and development programs in computer and semiconductor technologies serve as instructive testing grounds for this argument. Illustrating how shifts in international competitiveness can induce changes in domestic structures, Japan's R&D projects display a secular decline in the government's interventionist capabilities as the country's computer and semiconductor industry dramatically moves from industry follower to technological pioneer.     

The Dilemma of Nuclear Disarmament: The Case of North Korea

ABSTRACT

The Hanoi summit between the US and North Korea failed not because of North Korea’s brinkmanship strategy or its miscalculation of the US position on the denuclearisation talks, but because of a fundamental issue: a dilemma of how much to yield in giving up its military capabilities to expedite the lifting of sanctions. The leadership in Pyongyang has concerns about the ‘deliverability’ of its promises to its domestic audience to ensure deterrence capabilities and economic recovery. The two-level game model explains why both sides keep minimising the range of options for the negotiations, increasing the risk that the talks will break down.     

Going beyond the Roman dictator: a comprehensive approach to emergency rule,with evidence from Latin America

The aim of this article is to contribute to the debate on emergency rule, a practice that democratic theory has struggled to conceptualize. Accordingly, this article differs from existing approaches, which mainly focus on the constitutional design of regimes of exception and tend to identify the institution of the Roman dictator as their source. In contrast, we offer a comprehensive approach, considering other historical sources of emergency rule, going beyond the dichotomy of constitutional and de facto emergency, and focusing specifically on the types of emergency powers involved: executive, legislative and judicial. We propose a different way of conceptualizing emergency rule, following a political rather than a constitutional logic, and we illustrate this different conceptualization by offering evidence from Bolivia, Chile and Guatemala to demonstrate how this comprehensive approach works in practice.     

The Nato enlargement debate in the media and civil‐military relations in the Czech Republic and Slovakia

This article links the NATO enlargement debate to the course of civil‐military relations in the Czech Republic and Slovakia. After a general analysis of civil‐military relations and the media, it looks at the NATO membership issues discussed across seven dimensions and their impact on relations between civil society and the military. It concludes that a gap existed between the governing elite and the public in both countries.     

菲律宾修宪与反修宪运动探析

本文介绍菲律宾1987年制定的现行宪法及其特点,比较菲律宾各届政府的“修宪”努力与修宪与反修宪阵营的对垒,研究菲律宾各届政府的“修宪”意图、“修宪”目标,并从菲律宾民主体制发展的特定历史背景、全球化与反全球化的视角剖析修宪与反修宪博弈的实质,探析修改宪法与政局动荡之间的内在联系,世纪之交菲美关系的变化对菲律宾修宪与反修宪运动的影响。     

Balance of Power Politics and the Rise of China: Accommodation and Balancing in East Asia

Realists agree that great powers balance the military power of rising powers, but there is little agreement regarding secondary-state responses to rising powers. First, there are differences regarding whether secondary states balance or accommodate rising powers. Second, there are differences among realists regarding the distinct roles of economic and military factors in secondary-state alignment policies. Third, some scholars argue that state alignments are not necessarily determined by realist variables, but can reflect preferences shaped by intentions, historical experiences, or cultural influences. This paper addresses these issues in balance-of-power theory. Its empirical focus is the impact of the rise of China on secondary-state alignments in East Asia. After examining the complex mix of China's military and economic reach in East Asia, it concludes that secondary-state behavior is sensitive to local variation in the great power capabilities and that secondary states tend to accommodate rather than balance rising powers. It further concludes that economic capabilities alone are insufficient to generate accommodation, so that the political-economy literature should reexamine cases of apparent secondary-state accommodation to economic dependency, sensitive to the presence of military vulnerability on the part these secondary states to proximate great powers. These conclusions suggest that there is nothing sui generis or culturally-determined in East Asian international politics and that realism can explain alignment behavior among East Asian states as well as it does among European states. Research on East Asia's response to China's rise that is sensitive to intra-regional variations in U.S. and Chinese military and economic capabilities also challenges assumptions of an emerging Chinese regional hegemony or of a costly region-wide U.S.-China competition.     

“争常”失败后日本对非战略新态势

2005年"争常"失败后,日本政府改变了过去长期冷落非洲的外交政策,开始把非洲真正地纳入其全球战略架构中来。加大援非力度,改革援非方案,以对抗气候变暖和环境保护为重点,突出环境外交,全面发展与非洲各国的关系,日本对非战略出现新态势。其基本动因在于,适应新的国际形势变化的需要,反思"争常"失败后的经验和教训,通过发挥日本"环境外交"的优势,扩大其在非洲的影响,这种对非战略的新态势将对中国对非外交构成较大的压力和挑战。     

Stability and Change in U.S. Grand Strategy

Since the Global War on Terror (more recently termed the Long War) emerged as the centerpiece of U.S. grand strategy in 2001, the post–Cold War U.S. debate has narrowed significantly. Essentially three alternative strategies now compete for pride of place. Two are variants of a “primacy” strategy; one is a variant of “restraint,” sometimes termed “offshore balancing.” All three strategies take globalization as a given and as a positive development. None specifically connects U.S. military power to globalization. To the extent that globalization can be argued to have negative consequences, restraint offers a different remedy than either version of primacy. This article offers a brief characterization of globalization and speculates on its positive and negative results. The three grand strategies that remain visible in the U.S. public policy debate, and their suggested remedies, are then discussed. Finally, the U.S. military strengths and weaknesses are evaluated in order to gauge which strategy's remedies are most feasible.