TRAITS AND STATES: INTEGRATING PERSONALITY AND AFFECT INTO A MODEL OF CRIMINAL DECISION MAKING*

We propose and test a model of criminal decision making that integrates the individual differences perspective with research and theorizing on proximal factors. The individual differences perspective is operationalized using the recent HEXACO personality structure. This structure incorporates the main personality traits, but it carries the advantage of also incorporating Self‐Control within its personality sphere, and an additional trait termed Honesty‐Humility. Furthermore, the model offers a new perspective on proximal predictors, “states,” of criminal decisions by adding affect (i.e., feelings) to the rational choice–crime equation. The proposed model is tested using scenario data from a representative sample of the Dutch population in terms of gender, age, education level, and province (N = 495). As predicted by the model, personality was both directly and indirectly related to criminal decision making. Specifically, the traits Emotionality, Self‐Control, and Honesty‐Humility were mediated by both affect and rational choice variables. Conscientiousness operated only indirectly on criminal decision making via rational choice. Together, the findings support a trait‐state model of criminal decision making.     

THE APPLICATION AND ROBUSTNESS OF THE RATIONAL CHOICE PERSPECTIVE IN THE STUDY OF INTOXICATED AND ANGRY INTENTIONS TO AGGRESS*

Using a rational choice framework, this study examines the effects of alcohol and anger on violent decision making. Male students of legal drinking age participated in a randomized experiment in which intoxication and anger levels were manipulated. Participants read a “bar fight” scenario and completed a series of questions measuring aggressive intentions and the perceived consequences of violence. Results indicate that alcohol and anger interacted to increase one measure of aggressivity, but the perceived costs and benefits of violence were unaffected. Exploratory analyses call into question the robustness of the rational choice model, suggesting that the perspective may not be the general explanation for crime it is proclaimed to be.     

TOWARD A BIFURCATED THEORY OF EMOTIONAL DETERRENCE

Since Hobbes (1957 [1651] and Beccaria (1963 [1764]), scholars have theorized that the emotion of fear is critical for deterrence. Nevertheless, contemporary deterrence researchers have mostly overlooked the distinction between perceived sanction risk and fear of apprehension. Whereas perceived risk is a cognitive judgment, fear involves visceral feelings of anxiety or dread. Equally important, a theory explicating the influence of deterrence on both criminal propensity and situational offending has remained elusive. We develop a theoretical model in which perceived risk and fear are distinguished at both the general and situational levels. We test this theoretical model with data from a set of survey‐based experiments conducted in 2016 with a nationwide sample of adults (N = 965). We find that perceived risk and fear are empirically distinct and that perceived risk is positively related to fear at both the general and situational levels. Certain background and situational factors have indirect effects through perceived risk on fear. In turn, perceived risk has indirect effects through fear on both criminal propensity and situational intentions to offend. Fear's inclusion increases explanatory power for both criminal propensity and situational offending intentions. Fear is a stronger predictor than either self‐control or prior offending of situational intentions to offend.     

Sanctions,Perceived Anger,and Criminal Offending

In articulating models of offender decision-making, researchers have tended to focus on either deterrence/rational choice or situational/emotional considerations. In this paper, we merge these two lines of inquiry and examine how rational choice considerations and perceived angry reactions inter-relate in predicting assaultive violence. Using data collected on a random sample of young adults, we assess three hypotheses. First, that both rational choice and perceived anger exhibit additive effects on assault. Second, that perceived anger influences how rational choice considerations are interpreted. Third, that rational choice considerations influence assault under different levels of perceived anger, and in particular, that the effect of sanction threats fall apart under high perceived anger. Future theoretical and empirical directions are outlined.     

CAN RATIONAL CHOICE BE CONSIDERED A GENERAL THEORY OF CRIME? EVIDENCE FROM INDIVIDUAL‐LEVEL PANEL DATA

In the last few decades, rational choice theory has emerged as a bedrock theory in the fields of economics, sociology, psychology, and political science. Although rational choice theory has been available to criminologists for many years now, the field has not embraced it as other disciplines have. Moreover, rational choice scholars have fueled this skepticism of the theory's generality by modeling offender decision making that is one‐sided—large on the costs of crime (sanction threats), short on the benefits of crime. In this article, we directly assess the generality of rational choice theory by examining a fully specified model in a population that is often presumed to be less rational—adolescents from lower socioeconomic families who commit both instrumental (property) and expressive crimes (violence/drugs). By using a panel of N = 1,354 individuals, we find that offending behavior is consistent with rational responses to changes in the perceived costs and benefits of crime even after eliminating fixed unobserved heterogeneity and other time‐varying confounders, and these results are robust across different subgroups. The findings support our argument that rational choice theory is a general theory of crime.     

Adolescent maltreatment, negative emotion, and delinquency: An assessment of general strain theory and family-based strain

This study used data from a national sample of youth (N = 1,423) to test hypotheses derived from Robert Agnew's (1992, 2001) general strain theory concerning the relationship between adolescent maltreatment and delinquent behavior. Specifically, it focused on the extent to which the effect of maltreatment on general delinquency, serious delinquency, and substance use was mediated by negative emotions in the form of anger, anxiety, and depression. Results lend partial support to the theory. Confirming the importance of parent-child problems as a source of strain leading to delinquency, findings from ordinary least squares regression models revealed a significant association between maltreatment and all three forms of delinquent behavior. Although findings also showed that negative emotions are key intervening mechanisms influencing the magnitude of the direct effect of strain, maltreatment continued to exert significant effects even after controlling for negative emotions and both individual and family characteristics.     

False positive and false negative rates in self-reported intentions to offend: A replication and extension

Purpose

Studies of criminal decision making commonly rely on college students’ self-reported intentions to commit a hypothetical offense. The current study evaluates the predictive validity of these intentions to offend.

Methods

Undergraduate students (n = 726) read a fictitious but seemingly realistic newspaper article describing an illegal opportunity for acquiring digital music files, and then reported their intentions to act upon the opportunity. Afterward, participants’ real world attempts to follow-through on the opportunity were monitored covertly.

Results

Findings reveal that participants who reported weak intentions to offend typically refrained from the act, resulting in a low false negative rate. However, those who reported strong intentions to offend also typically refrained from the act, thereby resulting in a high false positive rate.

Conclusions

These findings suggest that while participants’ predictions of criminal abstention are generally accurate, their predictions of criminal involvement are more problematic. Such faulty intentions have important implications for research on criminal decision making.     

Learning on the job: Studying expertise in residential burglars using virtual environments*

In this article, we describe a quasi‐experiment in which experienced incarcerated burglars (n = 56), other offenders (n = 50), and nonoffenders (n = 55) undertook a mock burglary within a virtual neighborhood. We draw from the cognitive psychology literature on expertise and apply it to offending behavior, demonstrating synergy with rational choice perspectives, yet extending them in several respects. Our principal goal was to carry out the first robust test of expertise in offenders by having these groups undertake a burglary in a fully fledged reenactment of a crime in a virtual environment. Our findings indicate that the virtual environment successfully reinstated the context of the crime showing clear differences in the decision making of burglars compared with other groups in ways commensurate with expertise in other behavioral domains. Specifically, burglars scoped the neighborhood more thoroughly, spent more time in the high‐value areas of the crime scene while traveling less distance there, and targeted different goods from the comparison groups. The level of detail in the data generated sheds new light on the cognitive processes and actions of burglars and how they “learn on the job.” Implications for criminal decision‐making perspectives and psychological theories of expertise are discussed.     

Beyond fear: the role of peritraumatic responses in posttraumatic stress and depressive symptoms among female crime victims

This study examines peritraumatic (and posttrauma) responses in a sample of female crime victims who had been sexually or physically assaulted within the previous 2 months. Women were interviewed about their emotional and behavioral responses during the trauma and assessed for posttraumatic stress disorder and depression symptomatology. Results indicate that women experience a wide range of behavioral and emotional responses during a traumatic event and that these responses have implications for posttrauma adjustment. Women who experienced behaviors typical of a freeze response are more likely to have a greater degree of symptomatology after the assault. Peritraumatic emotions, other than fear, such as sadness, humiliation, and anger, also appear to be related to posttrauma depression symptoms. These findings highlight the necessity of exploring the full range of possible reactions during a trauma.     

Rational Choice,Agency and Thoughtfully Reflective Decision Making: The Short and Long-Term Consequences of Making Good Choices

Notions of human agency are a prominent part of some but not all criminological theories. For example, McCarthy (Annu Rev Sociol 28:417–442, 2002) argues that rational choice theory, which allows persons great involvement in decision making, is more congenial with notions of human agency than others. It would appear from his argument that rational choice theory offers fertile ground to develop a clearly defined role for human agency in criminal behavior. In this paper we have taken up McCarthy’s view and argue that an important part of what is human agency consists of thoughtfully reflective decision making. We outline four elements of thoughtfully reflective decision making, and claim that it is a characteristic that varies both across persons and within persons over time. It is in short the process by which good decisions are made because by using this process one increases the likelihood that choices made will be consistent with preferences. We develop a clear operational definition of thoughtfully reflective decision making and link it to the concept of human agency. We also articulate testable hypotheses about the short-term and longer-term implications of thoughtfully reflective decision making. We conclude with a discussion of what we think lies ahead for future conceptual and empirical work.

Talking Heads and Bleeding Hearts: Newsmaking, Emotion and Public Criminology in the Wake of a Sexual Assault

Using our own experiences in attempting to ‘do’ public criminology in the wake of a violent sexual assault on our campus, we offer a critique of the emerging public criminology framework. Focusing specifically on tensions between fact and emotion and representations of expertise in the news media, we argue for a greater respect for emotional responses to crime in moving the public criminology agenda forward. We suggest that if public criminology sets as its goal educating the public about crime with an eye towards injecting a counter/critical discourse into ‘get tough’ crime control policies, then public criminologists need to recognize and take seriously the public’s emotions rather than negate them. Drawing on the work of Ahmed (The cultural politics of emotion. Routledge, London, 2004), we suggest that the role of the expert is not to simply inform citizens of the ‘facts’ about crime, but to establish—through emotions—the relationship between themselves and the imagined criminal Other (Young in Imagining crime: Textual outlaws and criminal conversations. Sage Publications, London, 1996). Thus, alongside trying to convince the public to be more ‘rational’ when it comes to crime, critical criminologists must start to accept people’s fear and anger as legitimate reactions and try to redirect these emotions toward more productive ends.     

Beyond Rational Choice: the Hot/Cool Perspective of Criminal Decision Making

This paper proposes a general framework of criminal decision making that assumes both ‘cool’ cognition and ‘hot’ affect, i.e. feelings, to influence criminal choice. Drawing from judgment and decision making research and social psychology, the hot/cool perspective extends rational choice and deterrence theories by explaining how affect is likely to influence criminal decisions alongside cognitive considerations, such as the perceived costs and benefits of crime. It is shown how the hot/cool perspective offers a more realistic account of criminal decision making processes than existing decision models and approaches and also allows for the explanation of criminal behaviors that are difficult to explain in terms of rational choice.     

Self-Reported Intentions to Offend: All Talk and No Action?

To study criminal decision making, researchers commonly present hypothetical offending scenarios to participants and record their self-reported intentions to offend (SRIO). These SRIO scores are treated as an indicator of participants?? predisposition to commit the act described in the scenario. Drawing from the field of clinical measurement, the current study examines the diagnostic accuracy of SRIO scores by comparing participants?? intentions to acquire illegal music files from a designated distributor to their actual attempts to acquire such files. Approximately 7% of participants who read about a (bogus) music piracy opportunity reported strong??and at times definitive??intentions to seek out the illegal files. However, in actuality, no one in the study engaged in this behavior. Clinimetric indicators suggest that SRIO scores are better at predicting abstention from crime than actual criminal participation.     

Uses and abuses of eyewitness identification confidence

When attempting to identify an offender whom they saw commit a crime, eyewitnesses are frequently asked to indicate their confidence in their memories. Confidence judgments may be expressed prior to seeing a line‐up, after making an identification decision or in the courtroom. Such judgments can exert an important influence on decision making within the criminal justice system. Here, I examine theory and evidence that bear on the likely usefulness of such confidence judgments for diagnosing the accuracy of the associated identification. Contrary to often expressed views, I argue that confidence recorded immediately after the identification test is informative about the identity of the offender. Confidence expressions obtained at other times are likely to be misleading. Important directions for future confidence research are identified.     

AGE AND SEXUAL ASSAULT IN CORRECTIONAL FACILITIES: A BLOCKED OPPORTUNITY APPROACH*

We use data from the National Incident‐Based Reporting System (NIBRS) to examine the effects of age on the risk of sexual and physical assault in prisons and jails. Our evidence suggests that male inmates of all ages tend to sexually assault young men. The preference for the young is much stronger for sexual than for physical assault, which suggests that the young are sexually assaulted because of their sexual attractiveness rather than because of their vulnerability. We argue that the strong relationship between sexual attractiveness and age reduces opportunities for consensual sex among older inmates. As a result of blocked opportunities for consensual sex, older men are much more likely to commit sexual assault than one would expect, given the general tendency of young men to be more violent. Thus, the age–attractiveness relationship can parsimoniously explain the contrasting age patterns one observes for offenders and victims.     

Women's and men's fear of gang crimes: Sexual and nonsexual assault as perceptually contemporaneous offenses

Perceptually contemporaneous offenses are crimes that are coupled in people's minds when they express fear. Previous studies have shown that fear of rape predicts women's fears of other crimes. This study examined the differential effects of sexual and nonsexual assault as offenses that may be coupled with specific gang crimes. For both women and men, once physical harm is accounted for by controlling for fear of nonsexual assault, fear of rape explains much less variance than it does when it was included alone. We argue that fear of physical harm, not the sexual intrusion in rape, has the strongest effect on fear for both women and men.     

Initial emotional response to childhood sexual abuse: Emotion profiles of victims and relationship to later adjustment

A sample of 137 college women's retrospective reports of childhood sexual abuse were examined in order to identify the emotional responses these victims experienced at the time of abuse and to investigate the relationship between these responses and the long-term effects of abuse. Results identified three important dimensions of responding including guilt/fear, anger/disgust, and positive emotions. Further, five groups of victims displaying unique emotion profiles were identified. These include: (a) guilty/fearful individuals, (b) low responders, (c) angry/disgusted individuals, (d) ambivalent individuals, and (e) positive individuals. It was determined that victims' responses to abuse were associated with abuse severity. Finally, victim's affective responses to abuse were related to subsequent adjustment. Individuals experiencing high levels of guilt/fear were identified as exhibiting poorer social adjustment than either individuals reporting primarily anger or disgust or individuals reporting low levels of all emotions. Possible mechanisms through which these experiences have their effects are discussed.     

Judicial Specialization and Ideological Decision Making in the US Courts of Appeals

We investigate the influence of subject matter expertise, opinion specialization, and judicial experience on the role of ideology in decision making in the courts of appeals in a generalized, as opposed to specialized, setting. We find that subject matter experts and opinion specialists are significantly more likely to engage in ideological decision making than their nonspecialist counterparts and that opinion specialization is a particularly potent factor in ideological decision making. Further, increased judicial experience has no effect on the conditional use of ideology. We discuss the potentially wide‐ranging implications of our findings for both theory and policy.     

Thoughtfully Reflective Decision Making and the Accumulation of Capital: Bringing Choice Back In

In this paper we relate a particular type of decision making, thoughtfully reflective decision making (TRDM) in adolescence, to successful and unsuccessful life outcomes in young adulthood. Those who are thoughtfully reflective in their decision making are more likely to consider possible alternative routes to goal attainment, weigh the costs and benefits of those alternatives, and critically revisit the decision once made to examine what went well and what went wrong. We also argue that what mediates the effect of TRDM on later life outcomes is the accumulation of capital. Those who use better decision making practices are more likely to recognize the resources provided by and make the necessary investments to accumulate human, social and cultural capital. These notions are theoretically linked to conceptions of criminal offenders as both rational planners and decision makers and as fully human agents. Using data from the Add Health data set, our hypotheses are largely confirmed. Those who are higher in TRDM as adolescents were more likely to have enrolled in or graduated from college, to be in better physical health, are more involved in civic and community affairs, less likely to commit criminal acts, use illegal drugs and be involved in heavy drinking as adults. TRDM is also positively related to the accumulation of human, social and cultural capital. Finally, a substantial part of the effect of TRDM on young adult outcomes was mediated by capital accumulation. The implications of these findings for future theory and research are discussed.     

INFORMAL SURVEILLANCE AND STREET CRIME: A COMPLEX RELATIONSHIP*

The systemic crime model predicts that informal surveillance of space reduces street crime. Conversely, community decline theory posits that street crime reduces informal surveillance by increasing residents' perception of risk and fear. Moreover, functions of crime theory suggests that some types of crime may increase surveillance. Using data for 100 urban neighborhoods, the analysis examines these predictions and disentangles reciprocal effects. Baseline recursive equations indicate that informal surveillance is inversely associated with robbery/stranger assault, and that robbery/stranger assault is inversely associated with informal surveillance. In contrast, burglary rates are not affected by informal surveillance, but burglary has a positive effect on surveillance when robbery/stranger assault is controlled. Simultaneous equations indicate that robbery/stranger assault has a moderately strong inverse effect on informal surveillance, and that it is mediated by residents' perceptions of risk. When risk perception is controlled, informal surveillance has an inverse effect on robbery/stranger assault. The latter analysis also indicates that burglary increases surveillance, suggesting that some types of crime serve positive functions. The results, therefore, lend support to systemic, community decline, and functions of crime theory, and they suggest that the relationship between informal surveillance and crime is complex. Implications for community crime research are discussed.