The U.S. Decline Debate and Its Impact

The possibility that the U.S. is in decline has renewed concerns over the international strategic situation and the global order. The World Bank＇ s International Comparison Program （ICP） released data in April 2014 that suggested China＇ s economy could overtake that of the U.S. as soon as the end of this year （based on purchasing power parity or PPP which takes into account the relative costs of goods and services and inflation rates）. Their figures showed that the size of China＇ s economy was 87% of the U.S.＇ in 2011-that is 15% bigger than previously estimated. China＇ s economy is thought to have grown roughly 24% since 2011, while the U.S. economy is expected to have grown less than 8% .2 The possibility that the U.S. economy is in decline has worried both the public and scholars, and has sparked a new round of lively debate on the future of the international strategic situation.     

RMB Interest Rate reform:Risk of International Monetary Environment

On July 21, 2005, the People's Bank of China announced a new reform plan, according to which, RMB would no longer be pegged to the U.S. dollar but would reform the exchange rate regime by moving into a managed floating exchange rate regime based on market supply and demand with reference to a basket of currencies.① The reform is an important step in the process of China's reform and opening-up. Hence it has special significance for economic development of China. However, what merits att…     

China’s Peripheral Security Environment: Analytical Framework, Indicator System and Evaluation *

Since the end of the Cold War, the West and China have had diverging interpretations of “security environment.” China tends to define security from the perspective of development, while the West’s definition concerns external threats to security. In Chinese circumstances, the understanding of security environment has evolved from simply military to a more comprehensive one covering military, politics, economics and public opinions. This article develops a theoretical framework to analyze China’s peripheral security environment in the new era, and constructs an indicator system to evaluate it. The indicator system consists of the political security environment, military security environment, development security environment, public opinion security environment, and China’s periphery strategy, drawing upon the theories of Realism, Liberal Institutionalism and Constructivism. Furthermore, this article analyzes indicators through dimensionless methods based on the databases of the World Bank, the “Foreign Relations” database of the Institute of Modern International Relations at Tsinghua University and the People’s Daily, and compares three peripheral security environment scenarios. The result shows that in a general sense, China’s peripheral security environment has improved over the past decades. However, the situations after the 2008 global financial crisis have diverged, and different theoretical perspectives provide very different images. It seems that China has entered a very different environment, and for stable security environment in the future, China needs to cooperate with neighboring countries.     

Sino-EU Security Relations

There are two levels of security relations between China and the EU. The first level is that of China and the EU as a whole. The second level is that between China and member states of the EU respectively. Because the Common Foreign and Security Policy of the EU is still in an initial phase, defense relations between China and the EU have mainly been at the second level.     

Towards Better Understanding and Win-Win Cooperation——CAFIU held the 2013 “Understanding and Cooperation” Dialogue

<正>The Chinese Association for International Understanding(CAFIU)and the China Foundation for Peace and Development(CFPD)hosted the2013"Understanding and Cooperation"Dialogue in Beijing,Jingdezhen and Nanchang from July 23to 26,2013.The co-sponsors of this Dialogue     

Sustainable Development and Green Olympics——3^rd UN-NGO-IRENE/Asia-Pacific Conference Opens in Beijing

The 3^rd Conference of the UN-NGO-Informal Regional Network/Asia-Pacific,sponsored by the China NGO Network for International Exchanges （CNIE） and the NGO Section of UN Department of Economic and Social Affairs （DESA）, was held in Beijing from April 28^th to 29^th 2008. The theme of the conference is ＂Sustainable Development and Green Olympics＂.     

ABSTRACTS

（ 1 ） The Principal-Agent Mechanism in Regional Public Affairs Governance -A Case Study of The Asian Development Bank LIU Xing-hong. 1 ： Abstract： The paper aims at examining a professional regional governance institution, the Asian Development Bank（ADB） how to participate in regional public affairs governance and form a particular governance model （the ADB Model） under the principal-agent mechanism, and what advantages the model posses compared with the state-domina- ting governance model. The paper holds that the ADB Model not only provides a constructive governance mechanism, but implies the possibility and necessity of Asian social integration. Key words： The Asian Development Bank, Regional Governance ,Principal-Agent Mechanism     

Annual discussion on rights of the child——by Ms. Hong Ping,China Family Planning Association

正The quality of early childhood development has a life-long crucial impact on the development of a person. Over the past 30 years, children's health care system in China has made great progress. The government is committed to providing free vaccination and physical examination to all children and continuously improving the quality of medical care.     

International the Chinese Recognition of Rejuvenation——Retrospect on China＇s Diplomacy over Thirty Years of Reform and Opening-up

The thirty years of reform and opening-up are an importanthistorical period in China＇s national rejuvenation. This period has witnessed the triumphant advance and great changes in its foreign relations. For China, the outside world has never been closer. For the world, China is becoming a more and more significant or even indispensable factor.     

G20 and Global Governance——Summaries of Two Conferences at CICIR

The China Institutes of Contemporary International Relations hosted two important conferences in November and the summaries of both are as follows.     

RMB Interest Rate reform:Risk of International Monetary Environment

On July 21, 2005, the People's Bank of China announced a new reform plan, according to which, RMB would no longer be pegged to the U.S. dollar but would reform the exchange rate regime by moving into a managed floating exchange rate regime based on market supply and demand with reference to a basket of currencies. ① The reform is an important step in the process of China's reform and opening-up. Hence it has special significance for economic development of China. However,what merits attention is that the present international monetary regime is unstable, financial system is very fragile and big powers have shown an unwillingness to take financial cooperation.② This has posed great challenges to the process of RMB exchange rate reform. Now I would like to examine the possible risks of the reform and then try to make some suggestions through making some analysis of the status quo of international monetary and financial system.     

Geo-religion and China’s Foreign Strategies

The intertwining and extensive interactions between geopolitical, international economic and geo-religious factors have become the major features of geoborderilogy in the 21st century. The essence of geo-religion lies in the discursive power and the power of persuasion to influence popular views. With the globalization of China’s national interests and the comprehensive implementation of China’s "go global" strategy, religion should play its due role in China’s global foreign strategies.     

On the Basis of Sino-U.S.Cooperation

The thirty years＇ reform and open door policies in China have injected elements of capitalism into the Chinese economy. These capitalist factors have had a huge impact on China＇s domestic and foreign policies; economically speaking, China and the United States have become quite similar. The ideological differences which made them enemies in the first thirty years after the founding of the PRC have lessened considerably, and the two now interact as commercially competitive partners. This current similarity, according to the author, is the foundation which guarantees the future success of Sino-U.S. cooperation.     

The Evolution of China’s Security Challenges and Grand Strategy

This article examines changes in China’s security perceptions since 1949 and sketches the evolution of China’s grand strategy. In tracing the evolution of China’s security perceptions and grand strategy since 1949, it identifies elements of change as well as continuity. The changes reflect dramatic developments in the PRC’s capabilities and the international circumstances it faces, both of which have shaped the grand strategic choices of China’s leaders. During most of the Cold War decades, a relatively weak China’s vulnerability to serious military threats from much more powerful adversaries led the CCP to adopt grand strategies focused on coping with a clearly defined external security challenge. After the Cold War and especially in the 21st century, an increasingly complex array of internal and external security concerns confronts China’s leaders with new challenges. The paper concludes with a discussion of the significance of the recently established National Security Commission and offers brief observations about its potential significance for the CCP’s leadership in their fight against the new domestic and international security challenges it faces. The novelty of China’s security challenges at home and abroad in the 21st century is a consequence of the end of the Cold War international order and perhaps more importantly, a consequence of China’s successful modernization since 1979.     

盘点2014:中国外交丰收之年(英文)

<正>On 24 December 2014,Foreign Minister Wang Yi attended the opening ceremony of the Symposium on the International Development and China’s Diplomacy in 2014 co-hosted by China Institute of International Studies and China Foundation for International Studies and delivered an address titled 2014 in Review:A Successful Year for China’s Diplomacy.The following is the full text of the address:     

What Does China＇s Changes Mean to the World？

Although the severe snowstorms that hit Southern China in January and big earthquake in Sichuan in May uncovered a number of weaknesses, they could not conceal the rising power＇s historical achievements over the past three decades. The reform and opening-up policies have benefited China considerably. The international media, attracted by the Beijing Olympics, will focus on these miraculous changes and the outside world will gain a deeper understanding of China. No matter what anyone says, there will be a new and general recognition of China＇s rise and the increasing interdependence between China and the world outside.     

China-Russia Energy Cooperation: Its Present Situation and Prospect

Energy cooperation between China and Russia appears dissimilar to that between China and Kazakhstan and between China and the Sudan.Energy cooperation between China and Kazakhstan and between China and the Sudan takes the form that the Chinese corporations participate in the exploration and exploitation of local oil and gas resources,and gets back their shares the in oil and gas returns.The main form of energy cooperation between China and Russia,however,is that Russia exports oil and gas to China by way of trade.In order to     

Prospecting and Developing South China Sea Oil and Gas Resources

The South China Sea oil and gas resource issue is one of the key factors triggering disputes in the South China Sea. If one acknowledges that the sovereignty and demarcation of islands, shoals and atolls in the Nansha Islands and elsewhere represent the heart of the current disputes in the South China Sea, then one can clearly recognize that the South China Sea oil and gas resource issue is the strategic center of the conflict for relevant parties.     

The African Growth and the Participation of China

The debate on the involvement of China in Africa remains active; here in Beijing and in other fields, specialists of different areas analyze, discuss, and they look for hidden intentions regarding the new economical relationships that China has established with the African continent. From the point of view of an African it is fair to recognize that China has brought Africa to the center of the interest of the great countries of the western world.     

Ghina-U.S.Trade --the Path of Development

The United States is the world's largest economy and China is ranked number four; together the two countries comprise one third of the global economy. 40% of the international economic growth is sustained by the two countries. In terms of international trade, the United States and China are the first and the third largest trading nations respectively. Trade developments of these two countries have a huge impact on international imports and exports.