Bombing Alone: Tracing the Motivations and Antecedent Behaviors of Lone‐Actor Terrorists,,

This article analyzes the sociodemographic network characteristics and antecedent behaviors of 119 lone‐actor terrorists. This marks a departure from existing analyses by largely focusing upon behavioral aspects of each offender. This article also examines whether lone‐actor terrorists differ based on their ideologies or network connectivity. The analysis leads to seven conclusions. There was no uniform profile identified. In the time leading up to most lone‐actor terrorist events, other people generally knew about the offender's grievance, extremist ideology, views, and/or intent to engage in violence. A wide range of activities and experiences preceded lone actors' plots or events. Many but not all lone‐actor terrorists were socially isolated. Lone‐actor terrorists regularly engaged in a detectable and observable range of activities with a wider pressure group, social movement, or terrorist organization. Lone‐actor terrorist events were rarely sudden and impulsive. There were distinguishable behavioral differences between subgroups. The implications for policy conclude this article.     

Religious Radicalization and Lone‐Actor Terrorism: A Matter for Psychiatry?

This article discusses the place of the psychiatric field in the ongoing phenomenon of religious radicalization. First, the article provides an overview of the existing literature on lone‐actor terrorists and the link with mental illness. Current research is focusing increasingly on lone‐actor terrorists. This is the most recent and rising development on the global terrorism scene. The literature is currently developing a more precise and informed definition of lone‐actor terrorism. The article then describes and discusses the case study of a mentally ill patient arrested following his assault on a military serviceman on the grounds of religious radicalization. The patient, diagnosed with schizophrenia, is taken as an example of the specific case of religious radicalization in patients with schizophrenia. Finally, the article discusses the curative and preventive roles that can be played by psychiatrists and other professionals who are in contact with these types of patients.     

Actions Speak Louder than Words: A Behavioral Analysis of 183 Individuals Convicted for Terrorist Offenses in the United States from 1995 to 2012

Involvement in terrorism has traditionally been discussed in relatively simplistic ways with little effort spent on developing a deeper understanding of what involvement actually entails, and how it differs from person to person. In this paper, we present the results of a three‐year project focused on 183 individuals associated with the global jihadist movement who were convicted in the United States, for terrorist offenses, between 1995 and 2012. These data were developed by a large‐scale, open‐source data collection activity that involved a coding dictionary of more than 120 variables. We identify and explore the diversity of behaviors that constitute involvement in terrorism. We also compare lone actors and those who acted as part of a group, finding that lone actors differed from group‐based actors in key demographic attributes and were more likely to be involved in attack execution behaviors. Implications for counterterrorism are then discussed.     

Lone‐actor Terrorism and Impulsivity

In some recent cases of lone‐actor terrorism, there is evidence the subject acted impulsively, often in response to a triggering event which contained a loss and humiliation. Evidence suggests the subjects acted precipitously, despite planning and preparation carried out in the preceding weeks or months, and their attacks failed to include the often considerable preparation that had been done. The pathway became a runway. The authors recommend the traditional assessment of impulsivity in persons of concern for lone acts of terrorism, as well as other proximal warning behaviors for targeted violence. Both indirect and direct assessment guidelines are proposed, with an emphasis upon self‐report, psychological testing, collateral data gathering, and historical records.     

A comparative analysis of conviction outcomes of American domestic terrorists

This research uses quantitative analyses to determine whether or not conviction outcomes differ across three major American domestic terrorism groups: ecoterrorists, left-wing extremists, and right-wing extremists. Findings suggest that ecoterrorists receive lighter treatment within the criminal justice system while controlling for important variables, such as gender, age, and count severity. Findings highlight differences between “home-grown” terrorist groups, departing from a large segment of terrorism research focused on domestic versus international comparisons or terrorist versus civilian comparisons. Results elicit new research questions to understand why domestic terrorists receive differential treatment within the criminal justice system, despite controlling for key variables.     

国际恐怖活动社会基础与特征

随着人类社会形态的演进，为达成特定政治目的和社会目的而进行恐怖活动屡禁不绝。当前，随着国际上各种矛盾斗争的发展，作为一种特异现象的国际恐怖活动也日益蔓延，以劫机爆炸、绑票与劫持人质、劫船、劫车、暗杀、袭击等形式的恐怖活动急剧增多。相比于中国民国时期的恐怖活动，它有其特定的政治基础和社会基础，并呈现出独特的行为特征：攻击目标的确定与不确定并存，实施手段的先进性与落后性并存，活动的有组织性与无组织性并存，作案的连续性和残忽性。     

A Preliminary Report of Psychiatric Diagnoses in a Scottish County Sample of Persons of National Security Concern

Increasing anecdotal, empirical, and research evidence indicates mental disorder history is one of the several factors associated with increased risk of involvement in lone-actor terrorist activities. Currently, few studies have been conducted on the mental disorder histories of individuals assessed as at risk of involvement in terrorist activities (Meloy, J Threat Assess Manag 2019;6:93). This pilot study describes demographic, psychiatric, and criminal characteristics of a sample of Scottish individuals identified by the Prevent element of the U.K. national counterterrorism strategy, and outcome data after follow-up at 2 years. Twenty-three individuals were referred to Prevent as posing a national security risk from a county in Scotland. Their records were studied for psychiatric and criminal histories. Nine (39%) had previous psychiatric contact, all were “lone actors”, and none were embedded with organized terrorist groups. The most common diagnoses were substance use disorder, personality disorder, depression, and psychotic disorder. The sample displayed factors associated with increased risk of violence including previous offending, early behavioral difficulties, school problems, substance misuse, cluster B personality disordered traits. After 2 years, 44% of the mentally disordered group had re-offended. The offense types were generally similar to those prior to the individual being involved with the Prevent counter terrorism program. Only one of the mentally disordered group committed a further national security offense. In this sample, mental disorder history is overrepresented in individuals who come to the attention of the U.K. Prevent counter terrorism strategy. Further empirical studies with additional power are required to develop the empirical evidence base in this under-researched area.     

电力系统恐怖袭击风险的定量分析

国家关键基础设施的安全问题关系到国家的稳定与经济命脉。随着技术的发展,各种基础设施之间的相互依赖性日益增强,使得其脆弱性增加。电力系统作为国家的关键基础设施,是恐怖袭击的重点目标之一。本文对恐怖主义属性进行了描述,采用定量风险分析方法对电力系统遭受恐怖袭击的风险进行评估。通过分析,寻找出电力系统的脆弱性,以便有针对性地采取有效措施降低系统的脆弱性,从而减缓电力系统遭受恐怖袭击风险。     

THE PROSECUTION AND PUNISHMENT OF INTERNATIONAL TERRORISTS IN FEDERAL COURTS: 1980–1998*

Research Summary: This study reports findings from the American Terrorism Study. The data show that from 1980 to 1998, the U.S. government periodically tried accused domestic and international terrorists through the use of traditional criminal trials. The extent to which federal prosecutors “explicit politicized” these trials (and the success that the politicization had) varied among the types of terrorist groups. Explicit politically was not found to be successful in trials of domestic terrorists but seemed to work for trials involving international terrorists. Over the 20‐year period, however, federal prosecutors began to rely more heavily (and more successfully) on the politicization of the criminal acts by international terrorists. The results also show that international terrorists, like their domestic counterparts, are much less likely to plead guilty. Finally, the study shows that these traditional trials have resulted in international terrorists being punished more severely than domestic terrorists. Unfortunately, the practice of performing these politicized trials within the venue of the federal court system may have been compromised by defense strategies that capitalized on the due process procedures so prominent in the U.S. system of justice. In the wake of the terrorism attacks in September 2001 by foreign nationals, the federal government began to take the next step in its “war against terrorism” by instituting the use of military tribunals. Policy Implications: Although the federal government has been relatively successful in the prosecution of terrorism in America in the past two decades, the movement toward the use of military tribunals has perhaps become inevitable (as the use of the traditional criminal trial for international terrorists manifests weaknesses). In the short term, it is likely that several international terrorism cases stemming from the September 2001 attacks and other subsequent attacks (which may be presumed) will be tried in federal courthouses across the country (even with the advent of military tribunals). Federal prosecutors will need to be trained on the specifics of trying these kinds of cases. In the long term, the use of military tribunals will provide greater ease of prosecution for the federal government. Long‐term consequences such as retaliatory attacks and attacks aimed at the release of political prisoners cannot be ignored by policy makers.     

TERRORISM,POLITICS, AND PUNISHMENT: A TEST OF STRUCTURAL-CONTEXTUAL THEORY AND THE “LIBERATION HYPOTHESIS”*

The sentencing literature generally has been characterized by an inability to explain Significant amounts of the variance in sentencing outcomes. Two major theoretical explanations have addressed this issue: structural-contextual theory and the “liberation hypothesis.” Structural-contextual theory suggests that the components of the justice system traditionally work somewhat independently of one another. This theory suggests that variance explained in sentence outcomes will increase appreciably when components function with greater interdependence—a so-called “tightening” or “coupling” effect. Such tightening supposedly takes place when particular cases are given high priority for investigation and prosecution. An example of this situation might be domestic terrorism. The liberation hypothesis suggests that the greater the severity of an offense, the less likely judges or juries will feel free to follow their own sentiments regarding guilt and punishment. As a consequence, the ability of legal variables to predict variation in sentence length will be greater as crime severity increases. This study compares a sample of officially designated terrorists matched with nonterrorists convicted of the same federal offenses. OLS regression and structural equation modeling procedures are used to compare the levels of explained variance for the two groups. The results indicate strong support for the basic premises of both theories. Explained variance for the terrorist sample is more than four times greater than the explained variance for the nonterrorist sample. Further analysis shows that explained variance is highest for terrorists who have committed a high-severity offense and lowest for nonterrorists who have committed a low-severity offense. The subsequent addition of other predictor variables available only for the terrorist sample further increases the explained variance and provides additional support for the liberation hypothesis.     

定量风险分析在恐怖袭击风险评估中的应用

本文回顾了定量风险分析的发展过程,提出了对恐怖主义风险进行评估、定量的方法。在定量过程中,根据已经获得的情报资料和以往类似事件的总结,结合专家意见,采用定量分析方法对数据进行处理,得出最可能的袭击目标,威胁的属性,确定出袭击的幕景。采用事故树分析其威胁模型,采用事件树分析系统脆弱性,得出袭击的后果及目标中存在的最大脆弱性。为在恐怖威胁下做出有效决策提供了理论依据。并以体育馆为例,用理论进行了实例分析。     

The Impact of Technology and Communications upon International and Transnational Terrorism

The purpose of this inquiry is to examine the nature of terrorism, primarily in European and Western industrial nations. Specifically the article (1) examines the impact that has resulted from technological advances in communication and weapons and (2) discusses the necessity of international cooperation in the effort to defeat terrorism. The article documents that terrorism is a serious threat to Western democracies including the United States as well as an international threat. The conclusion of the article is that it has become more difficult to counter terrorism due to technological advances which have delivered greater destructive power into the hands of a few fanatics. The primary technological effects discussed are (1) those relating to communication which has enabled terrorists to establish a “world-wide network” and (2) the addition of toxins and nuclear weapons to the arsenal of the terrorist. As an international problem, however, the difficulty of countering terrorism is not rooted in the technological sophistication of the terrorist but in international disputes about the question, “what is terrorism”. Nations appear to be unable to mount an international assault against terrorism due to the great difficulty of arriving at a commonly accepted definition of terrorism. This article discusses the obstacles to defining terrorism encountered by the international community and the role that bilateral and multinational agreements have played in countering terrorism.     

汽车炸弹恐怖犯罪特征及新态势

汽车炸弹恐怖犯罪是以车辆为爆炸物载体,为了达成某种政治目标或恐怖效果而经常采取的一种犯罪行为。其表现出制作技术简单、容易隐蔽,难于发现、杀伤力大,破坏性强、袭击目标、地点不确定、爆炸影响面广的特征。目前这类犯罪呈现地域分布全球化、恐怖分子本土化、数量上升、多点连环爆炸态势明显、高科技倾向逐渐显现的新态势。     

Hybrids: on the crime–terror nexus

Terrorist organisations may complement their military capability with functioning infrastructures and profitable activity in economic ventures as well as in crime. This leads many commentators to focus on the increasing overlap between terrorism and crime, including and particularly organised crime. The present paper is devoted to the analysis of this controversial overlap, and after providing a concise outline of definitions of organised crime and terrorism found in criminology, highlights similarities and differences between the two forms of criminality, along with the ambiguity of the very notion of “crime–terror nexus.”     

Evaluating the Efficacy of Protection Orders for Victims of Domestic Violence

Abstract

The purpose of this study is to gauge the efficacy of protection orders for victims of domestic violence. The theoretical basis for this analysis is Johnson's (1995) theory that there exist two distinct forms of domestic violence: “common couple violence,” which consists of low-grade, mild abuse that is equally perpetrated by both men and women, and “patriarchal terrorism,” which involves severe mental and physical abuse that is used primarily by men to control their female partners. Based on Johnson's theory, it is hypothesized that protection orders will be less effective for women who experience patriarchal terrorism than for women who experience common couple violence. The results of this analysis indicate that the primary independent variable, that is, whether a woman experiences common couple violence or patriarchal terrorism, is not a good predictor of protection order violation. However, several secondary independent variables were found to be significant, including victim's race and employment status, as well as the couple's living arrangements at the time of the protection order.     

Prosecutorial Discretion: An Examination of Substantial Assistance Departures in Federal Crack‐Cocaine and Powder‐Cocaine Cases

Recently there has been a call for research that explores decision‐making at stages prior to sentencing in the criminal justice process. Particularly research is needed under a determinate sentencing system where judicial dispositions are usually restricted by guidelines, which increases the importance of earlier decision‐making stages. As an answer to this call, and in an attempt to build on currents studies on the effects of departures as an intervening mechanism, and a source of unwarranted disparity, this study explores federal sentencing data on offenders convicted of crack‐cocaine and powder‐cocaine offenses. Although decision‐making of all criminal justice actors generally, and prosecutors specifically, has been the subject of much research, studies have yet to resolve the nature and outcome of their “autonomous” discretion. This autonomy becomes especially salient regarding prosecutorial decisions for substantial assistance departures. In deciding who receives a substantial assistance departure, the prosecutor has carte blanche power.     

《孙子兵法》与我国反恐策略

在防范和打击针对我国的恐怖主义活动中,《孙子兵法》中的某些思想具有重要的指导和借鉴作用。我国应以“全胜”为目标,灵活运用孙子的谋略思想,制定出符合我国实际情况的反恐策略。在国内,加强和谐社会建设,努力消除恐怖主义活动可利用的不利因素,加强针对性的预防、打击措施和应急处置体系建设,努力将恐怖主义活动消灭在萌芽状态;在国际上,继续扩展和巩固国际反恐合作,尤其是中亚地区各国的国际反恐合作,壮大国际反恐阵营。     

Loners,Colleagues, or Peers? Assessing the Social Organization of Radicalization

This study explores the utility of a sociological model of social organization developed by Best and Luckenbill (1994) to classify the radicalization processes of terrorists (i.e., extremist perpetrators who engaged in ideologically motivated acts of violence) who are usually categorized as loner or lone wolf attackers. There are several organizational frameworks used to define or classify violent acts performed by individuals who may or may not have ties to extremist groups, but these studies largely ignore the role of social relationships in radicalization and the extent to which they inform our knowledge of terror. To address this gap, we apply the Best and Luckenbill model of social organization using a qualitative analysis of three case studies of four lone actor or small cell terrorists. The findings demonstrate lone actors are not always true loners in the context of radicalization, and highlights the ways that the Internet and social ties foster the radicalization processes of terror.

     

Congressional Attacks on the Supreme Court: A Mechanism to Maintain,Build, and Consolidate

Reexamination and reinterpretation of the “mature” (1955–1984) New Deal era of congressional attacks on the Supreme Court reveals a new hypothesis: that Court‐curbing efforts played a previously unrecognized role in party system development. Court rulings that create inter‐ and intraparty tension provide opportunities for various actors to attack the Court in an effort to solidify their faction's standing within national coalitional politics. Congressional attackers can use Court‐curbing resolutions and amendments in efforts to help them maintain coalitional cohesion, build a new majority, or consolidate previous victories. Thus, we might see legislative‐judicial relations as an unrecognized “site” of political development, where coalitional change is opposed and wrought.