缅甸对印度人和孟加拉人的政策

印度人在缅甸社会比其他外侨更不受欢迎。这是由于印度人同缅甸原住民在种族和宗教上的差异很大 ,且印度人很不容易接受缅甸的语言、服装和风土习俗。因此 ,缅甸人叫他们“嘎拉”。值得关注的是 ,由于早期历史上的交往因素 ,缅甸与印度在文化特别是在宗教方面有牢固的关系。在殖民地时代 ,印度人的地位很显著 ,虽然他们排在欧洲人之后 ,位居第二 ,但他们把资金分投到农业、制造业和服务业。 196 2年以来 ,印度人的政治、经济和社会自主权明显下降 ,但自 1988年 9月现军人政府上台后 ,印度人的状况已得到改善。     

The Political Economy of Myanmar’s Transition

Since holding elections in 2010, Myanmar has transitioned from a direct military dictatorship to a formally democratic system and has embarked on a period of rapid economic reform. After two decades of military rule, the pace of change has startled almost everyone and led to a great deal of cautious optimism. To make sense of the transition and assess the case for optimism, this article explores the political economy of Myanmar’s dual transition from state socialism to capitalism and from dictatorship to democracy. It analyses changes within Myanmar society from a critical political economy perspective in order to both situate these developments within broader regional trends and to evaluate the country’s current trajectory. In particular, the emergence of state-mediated capitalism and politico-business complexes in Myanmar’s borderlands are emphasised. These dynamics, which have empowered a narrow oligarchy, are less likely to be undone by the reform process than to fundamentally shape the contours of reform. Consequently, Myanmar’s future may not be unlike those of other Southeast Asian states that have experienced similar developmental trajectories.     

Vietnam’s and China’s Diverging Industrial Relations Systems: Cases of Path Dependency

ABSTRACT

This article explains why Vietnam and China, one-party states that allow only one official trade union, are traversing different paths in their trade unions’ institutional structures, the state’s and trade union’s attitudes towards strikes, their willingness to allow independent trade unions and willingness to engage with the international labour union movement. These will be examined in terms of the path dependency of their recent histories, in which changes have been incremental on a path laid down by pre-existing entrenched institutions, until each national system no longer operated properly and new contingencies obliged the leadership to revamp the system. As a consequence of China’s and Vietnam’s divergent path dependencies, when external contingencies finally forced institutional change, countries have veered onto divergent trajectories – the Trans-Pacific Partnership energising Vietnam to debate the acceptance of autonomous trade unions, while Xi Jinping in China has intensified Party control over industrial relations.     

Food Import Dependency in Cuba: Still the ‘Achilles’ Heel of the Revolution'?

The ‘Special Period in Peacetime’ plunged Cuba into an austerity programme of great severity. The crisis forced agriculture to shift dramatically from a model based on trade dependency (sugar exports providing most of the foreign currency) to one prioritising food import substitution. This alternative brought about major transformations in the country's agriculture. It revolutionised food production and decentralised land ownership. This article asks whether or not these changes reduced food dependency in Cuba. It provides an updated picture of Cuba's food import dependency, with a particular emphasis on the increased role of small farmers in food production during the 2000s.     

Régimen político y democracia: conflicto constitucional en el pluralismo incompleto

Two constitutional features frame Mexico’s arrival to democracy: the creation of credible electoral institutions and the preservation of rules corresponding to the authoritarian regime inherited from the decade of the ‘30s in the twentieth century. These two sets of rules clash with each other, a fact which explains the low levels of democratic governance and the low quality of legislation and public policies. The political debate over this contradiction seems to have reached the lowest point and several different alternatives have been formulated to break the deadlock; nevertheless, the necessary political agreements that may clearly define a political path have not been reached. The article describes these processes and lays out the alternatives in dispute as well as possible outcomes in the near future.     

缅甸军人与政治关系的现状与趋势

在从1948年1月4日独立至今的68年间,缅甸军人直接掌权或由其扶持的政党执政的时间共约56年。2015年11月8日,昂山素季领导的全国民主联盟在大选中获得压倒性胜利,军方扶持的联邦巩固与发展党惨败。2016年3月30日,民盟资深成员吴廷觉总统领导的新政府宣誓就职,取代退役将领吴登盛领导的巩发党政府。缅甸军人长期直接或间接执政的历史暂告结束,这是缅甸民主转型的里程碑。但依照缅甸宪法,军人仍保留诸多权力,是与民盟政府并立的另一权力中心,军人与民盟政府关系好坏将是影响缅甸政治发展的关键因素。缅甸军人完全退出政治尚需时日,不排除其再度干政的可能。     

2000年的缅甸外交

重返国际社会是缅甸军政府近年来对外关系的重要目标。在 2 0 0 0年 ,缅甸军政府继续为此而努力 ,并保持了与中国、东盟的传统友好关系 ,与印度关系取得了突破性进展 ,与俄、日等国关系有所恢复和发展 ,但与美国、欧盟以及有关国际组织的关系依然没有明显好转。     

缅甸华文教育的现状与前景

20世纪90年代以来,缅甸华文教育在经历了二十余年的沉寂后重新复苏,华校的数量和规模已经有了较大发展。缅甸华文教育的发展与缅甸国内的政治经济发展、中国的崛起和对华文教育的支持、中缅关系的亲善、华人的努力和有利的国际背景等五个方面密切相关。同时,目前缅甸华文教育在合法化、生源和师资方面还存在诸多的困难。     

1998年的缅甸外交

缅甸外交在１９９８ 年继续稳步发展,但也遇到了新的困难。缅甸与东盟成员国来往密切,但因金融危机等诸多因素的影响,缅甸与东盟成员国的矛盾也逐渐凸现。虽尽力改善与西方国家的关系,但成效甚微,以美国为首的西方国家继续对缅实行制裁。缅甸与印度、孟加拉国的关系在１９９８ 年进展不大,缅中友好关系得到进一步发展     

Private Security in Guatemala: Pathway to Its Proliferation

It has become common to explain the proliferation of private security services as causally determined by crime rates and institutional weakness. This article on the contrary argues that other explanatory factors need to be emphasised, especially for post‐war societies: institutional trajectories and political processes. The article first presents the present situation of commercial and non‐commercial private security services in Guatemala (private security companies as well as security neighbourhood committees). Against this background it reconstructs mechanisms and critical junctures through which the Guatemalan state had sourced out policing functions to the private sector during the war and traces the reinforcement of these mechanisms in post‐war society. It argues that the proliferation of private security services is an outcome of the reinforcing of an institutional pattern of public security displacement to the private sphere. The continuity of self‐defence and vigilante organisations thereby emerges as a stronger explanatory factor of the proliferation of private security services in post‐war societies than their self‐explained authorisation through high crime rates.     

Explaining South Africa’s land reform policy failure through its instruments: the emergence of inclusive agricultural business models

ABSTRACT

This paper seeks to explain the emergence of South African inclusive agricultural business models in relation to the land reform policy. We demonstrate that in South Africa such policy instruments linking small-scale and large-scale farmers respond to endogenous dynamics linked to the failure of its land reform policy. We study the land reform policy change induced by its policy instruments. Indeed, introducing the market as the preferred means to implement land reform caused unanticipated side effects, creating constant pressure for change that such inadequate instrument exerted on the set policy objectives during the first phase of policy implementation. After cohabitating uneasily with rather antagonistic policy goals, policy instruments ultimately led to a change in policy objectives, shifting from supporting small-scale black subsistence agriculture to targeting a class of emerging farmers committed to commercial agriculture. Inclusive Business Model’s policy instruments were subsequently identified as the best fit to achieve the re-adjusted policy goal.     

缅甸政治转型过程中的宗教冲突探析

缅甸目前正处于从军人执政向民选政府过渡时期。然而,在这一转型过程中,佛教徒与穆斯林之间的暴力冲突却越来越严重。宗教冲突首先是在缅甸西部若开地区爆发,然后扩大到缅甸的其他地方。众所周知,缅甸是一个佛教为主的国家,穆斯林仅仅是少数。而且,一般认为,缅甸国内的穆斯林是东南亚地区最不激进的群体之一,而佛教教义的核心理念之一也是和平与非暴力。那么,到底是什么因素造成了缅甸佛教徒与穆斯林的暴力冲突？笔者认为英国殖民统治政策造成的佛教徒与穆斯林之间根深蒂固的不信任是缅甸宗教冲突的根本原因,缅甸政治转型过程中日益高涨的佛教民族主义是重要原因之一。     

冷战后中印在缅甸的合作竞争关系

根据国际关系的合作竞争概念,冷战后中印在缅甸的合作竞争关系可以分为两个阶段。在这两个阶段中,合作逐渐增多,虽然竞争仍大于合作,但竞争的主导地位有所减弱。受中印关系的影响,未来中印在缅甸的合作竞争关系还存在很大的不确定性,中国需要尽一切可能使之获得良性的发展。     

精英互动与缅甸的政治发展:2011年缅甸的政治与外交

2011年缅甸政府与国内外精英的互动有力地推动了缅甸的政治发展。通过与政治反对派的互动,政府修改了政党登记法,赢得了政治反对派的初步信任,为更广范围分享政治权力扫清了障碍。通过与少数民族武装的互动,政府赢得了少数民族武装的信任,与绝大部分少数民族武装签订了和平协议,为更公平地在民族间分享资源创造了可能。通过与外国政要的互动,政府赢得了西方国家的信任,西方开始逐步解除对缅甸的制裁,为缅甸生产和提供更好的公共产品提供了条件。政府叫停密松电站建设可以看做是缅甸政府与国内外精英互动的一个顺理成章的结果。2011年缅甸的精英互动与政治发展表明:即使为结构所限,精英的认知和互动也可以推动一个国家的政治发展。