Modeling unemployment volatility in America,Europe and Asia

Many government policies are being implemented to stabilize the economy. One of the policies necessary to achieve stabilization is full employment. However, the growth rate of unemployment in many countries is evident and seems more volatile in recent years. To counterattack the unemployment problem, the volatility of the growth rate of unemployment has to be known in order to launch appropriate policies correctly. Therefore, conditional volatility models are employed to estimate the volatility with symmetric and asymmetric effects. The monthly data on unemployment is downloaded to calculate the rate of change. The consistency and asymptotic normality of the QMLE are guaranteed by the moment conditions. The GARCH model shows that a shock to the growth rate of unemployment in most cases has long-run persistence, but relatively less for short-run persistence. The G JR model reports the asymmetric effects in 10 of 25 countries. The EGARCH model illustrates asymmetric effects in 12 of 25 countries, while 3 of them show leverage. VaR forecasts and counts of number of violations suggest that the univariate conditional models are practicable in most countries, and the G JR model seems to be preferable in cases with a large difference in the number of violations.     

Comparative Analysis of Unemployment in Austria,Greece and Serbia During the Crisis

The aim of the paper is to understand the impact of world financial crisis on unemployment rate. In spite of that, Austria＇s and Greece＇s unemployment trends have been analyzed and compared in periods before and during the present world financial crisis and their relation has been used in order to understand ways of employment improvement in Serbia. In the period of 1998-2006, unemployment rate in Greece was 2.5 times higher than in Austria. The highest range difference was in 1999--8.01%, while the lowest was in 2006--4.15%. During the period of the crisis, unemployment rate in Greece has been nearly six times higher than in Austria. The gap between these countries is getting wider over the years. At the beginning of the financial crisis, the difference between percentage of unemployed citizens in Austria and Greece was at the lowest level--3.86%. Then from 2008, unemployment rate in Greece has been increasing rapidly and finally exploded during the observed year. It has rapid growth that peaked 26% in September 2012, which is more than 2.5 times higher than the average unemployment rate in the EU. Youth unemployment also increased markedly in Greece, where 56.4% young adults looking for a job cannot find one. On the other side, Austria＇s labour market performs very well, which is reflected in one of the lowest unemployment rates in the EU. In Serbia, situation is much worse than the mentioned countries above and it could not be concluded that it is just caused by the crisis. Unemployment in Serbia has deeper roots. Periods of wars, economic sanctions, and hyperinflation, as well as the transition process from the centrally planned to the market economy caused great number of jobs to be lost. Even though GDP （Gross Domestic Product） growth is expected in years to come, employment rate will not follow that trend and unemployment will remain serious problems for many countries in future.     

Analysis of Job Market in Germany and Spain in Order to Reduce Unemployment in Serbia

The percentage of unemployed in Germany was at the lower level than in Spain until 2004. In 2004, the percentage of jobless citizens in Germany almost reached Spanish average, while in 2005 and 2006, German unemployment rate even overcame Spanish one. During the period of the crisis, unemployment rate in Spain has been nearly five times higher than in Germany and more than two times higher than the average unemployment rate in the EU. Youth unemployment in Spain is 50%. On the other side, Germany is becoming even stronger in the period of crisis The incredible recovery that Germany experienced after World War II is commonly referred to as the Wirtschaftswunder, which translates into English as the ＂economic miracle＂. It can be said that Germany＇s successful recovery following the global financial crisis could justifiably be classified as the Wirtschaftswunder II. In Serbia, situation is much worse than in above-mentioned countries and it could not be concluded that it is just caused by the crisis. Periods of wars, economic sanctions and hyperinflation, as well as the transition process from the centrally planned to the market economy caused great number of jobs to be lost.     

Main operational issues of medium term budget plan： The case of Albanian Ministry of Defence

This article is mainly concerned with some technical issues of preparing the medium term budget plan （MTBP） in Republic of Albania. This is a period of three years into the future. A period of three years is the right period for some realistic planning. Planning for one year only is not realistic planning, because decisions taken in one year will have consequences for later years. In Albania, there are a number of policy development processes, for example those related to the government programme, the sector and national strategy process and European integration process. The medium term budget programme seeks to complement other policy processes by drawing on their results and linking the associated policy objectives explicitly to expenditure programmes in a formal management process. Albanian Government is adopting an international sample of composing a good MTBP, so we found a very interesting research on this topic. The article is composed of three lines： The first part, named as ＂introduction＂, treats the work done by Albanian Government in preparing MTBP document; second part deals with main components of MTBP document prepared by an Albanian Ministry （14 in total）; while the third part refers to an MTBP for a programme taken as an example at the Albanian Ministry of Defence.     

Multicultural Pedagogy Development in Modern Education

Although there is a growing interest in the influence of multicultural issues in education, there is still a lack of theoretically well-grounded comparative analyses of educational systems. Topics such as problems and prospects involved in the development of multicultural pedagogy are broadly discussed, but often suffer from an insufficient number of empirical and comparative studies. The lack of systemic or unified research in the field of multicultural education has reduced multicultural pedagogy within education to the simple implementation of individual training courses. As a result, multicultural pedagogy is generally oriented only toward the needs of a single country, rather than toward a system of multicultural interests that takes into account the interests of multiple countries. As a result, we must develop methods that will enable the realization of true multicultural pedagogy. The leading objective should be, firstly, the consideration of the individual as a subject of culture in a multicultural environment with a goal to determine the significance of the formation of an individual＇s multicultural qualities; secondly, the development of an integrative approach. Comparative studies are taking the lead in addressing this goal and recommending specific steps to incorporate multicultural pedagogy more systematically into an existing education system in every country. This paper addresses these problems by discussing theoretical questions behind the development of the ideological basis of multicultural pedagogy.     

Factors Affecting Some Failure Arab States Uprising and Obstacles for Development

Some Arab states witnessed a number of uprising, which ranged from violent reactions toward their people, such as in Syria, Libya, Egypt, and Yemen, while some countries were trying to prevent these revolutions by using different measures, in which can be described as ＂cosmetic surgeries＂, such as Morocco and Tunisia. There are a number of factors, which leads Arab states to what is known ＂the failed state＂. These states for more than three decades had failed to achieve a minimum of political stability, well-being, economic, and social development for their people, to keep up with global changes in political, economic, and social reforms. Some political factors affecting Arab uprising, including lack of political reform, democracy, human rights violations, illegitimate governments, and absence of anti-corruption policy. Arab states governments had failed to achieve the minimum requirement of economic development, to solve economic chronic difficulties in transitional economies, in fields, such as food and water security, human resources development, and economic development at local and regional levels. In addition, there are social factors ignite the Arab uprising. Including high rate of unemployment, deterioration of industrial and agricultural sectors, uncontrolled migration to cities consequently increase pressure on social services and economic development of cities.     

Tax Challenges in the Global Economy

Globalization has increased significantly over the past two decades, provoking different political reactions. Increasing trade and financial openness as well as intense global economic competition have forced governments to intervene in order to deal with its different negative consequences such as budget deficits or growing unemployment. Over the last two decades, almost all OECD （Organization for Economic Co-operation and Development） countries have undertaken structural changes within their tax systems. However, two main problems appear. The first one concerns ＂tax competition＂ understood as improvements made by different countries in the field of investment climate especially in the field of economic freedom. The second one refers to the effective tax revenue resources that help maintain the welfare state properly. In the developed countries, this is certainly easier as richer societies afford to do it through their fiscal systems. The main aim of this paper is to examine the impact of globalization on tax policy--its nature and its transformations. The main conclusions are as follows： Globalization is an incredible opportunity for the private sector to take advantage of free movement of goods, services, capital, and people. At the same time, it is a great challenge for the public sector to maintain sound public finance. The analysis is based on statistical data and qualitative research methods.     

Determinants of FDI Into Turkey： A Componentwise Analysis

For two decades, the questions of what really motivates foreign investors to invest in a certain country remain unanswered and a controversial issue. Moreover, previous studies have overwhelmingly treated FDI （foreign direct investment） as unidimensional rather than multidimensional. In reality, FDI is rather multidimensional in that it is composed of components （equity capital, reinvested earnings, and other capital）, each with its intrinsic characteristics in response to the same economic fundamentals, such as growth, institutional quality, exchange rate, taxes, market size, skill abundance, etc. Therefore, the main objective of this study was to seek the major determinants of the total FDI inflows in Turkey by treating total FDI as multidimensional to avoid a distorted empirical prediction concerning the total FDI, which is greatly neglected in the FDI literature. Accordingly, the author employed the panel corrected standard error （PCSE） model for annual data between 2003 and 2012, he found that FDIs are responsive to the country risk （CR） indices of both Turkey and EU （European Union） and to the tax measures of 2006.     

Effective Unemployment Counteraction as a Determinant of National Security

Management process, which is an attempt to cater for an infinite number of human needs with a finite number of production factors, takes place in a closed flow of money and goods. Labour market, characterized by a high level of entropy, is one of the elements of this flow. In the view of the disorder which presents in the labour market, it is understandable that the state intervenes in this market. Interventionism usually takes place in such areas of the economic policy as employment policy and labour market policy. When state intervention in this market is characterised by economisation, which means making activities more efficient or more economical, the level of the national security is rising. This is due to the fact that the unemployment rate actually decreases and the amount of funds earmarked for interventionism, which come from non-repayable obligatory public levies is optimized.     

The idea of the legal regulation of war and its origin

The subject matter of the analysis in this paper is jus in bello and the very possibility of its existence. On the face of it, the concept that in the event of the outbreak of hostilities, the use of force against one＇s opponent should be somehow regulated and limited, which is stranger, and its origin is more difficult to explain, than the concept that human societies should live together in peace or that wars should only be begun on some ethical or legally acceptable grounds. It is likely that limits on the use of force, or at least pressures to keep it within a ritualized framework, are property of human beings that enabled our ancestors to live together as social animals. Something similar would have been applied for groups of such beings. Even though the tendency to regulate the use of force in war has existed in the earliest times, this is not a simple task and sets against this effort there are a number of factors that encourage the freest use of violent methods and weapons： The war is a serious business and the desire to win at all costs is very strong, the logic of war leads the combatants to employ all the forces that can be freed from elsewhere and make use of all available advantages and means, a combat is an emotional mater not only rational, etc. Against these forces, the factors that work in favor of the legal regulation of the use of force are： The existence of at least a basic common identity, a situation in which war does not have the characteristics of total war, ear of reprisals by the enemy, the principle of proportion of force used to the objectives, the existence of an approximately comparable moral code and warrior code of honor on both sides, and the need to legitimize war. The extent to which a given war will abide by legal regulation of the use of force depends on the result of the balance of the opposing factors listed above.     

Social networks versus technical networks： How different social interaction patterns effect information system utilization in the organizations？

Improvements in information and communication technologies have reshaped production and consumption relations during the post-modern era. Societies have tried to adapt themselves to the requirements of new knowledge-based economy. It has also become vital for the organizations to meet the needs of knowledge society. Whether they are public or private, organizations play key roles in the transformation processes of the societies and economies. It is important for the organizations not only to use the latest information technologies, but also create social structures, which can ease information flow throughout the organization. Social network studies that are quite different from traditional approaches in sociology can be very useful tools to understand arid manipulate organizational networks. The results of several research activities have shown that actors use their social connections to reach information, resources and possible opportunities （Garguilo ＆ Benassi, 2000）. It is not enough to use advanced information technologies in an organization to build an effective knowledge distribution system regarding the social network perspective, it is required to understand the patterns of social interactions between actors and to find a fit between technical structure and social structure for effective knowledge-based organizational design. Structural holes theory （Butt, 1992） emphasized the importance of brokerage roles of the actors in a social network. Structural holes are unconnected actors （individuals, groups or organizations） in a social network （Burt, 1992）. If there are numerous structural holes in an organization, there will also be quite a number of brokerage opportunities for some actors in the organizational networks. Brokers are the bridges and gatekeepers who are controlling information flow in the organizations. It is vitally important to explore brokerage patterns in an organizational network for an effective knowledge based design. This study is a conceptual framework aiming at bringing an explanation to socially created information flow structures in the organizations by using structural holes theory.     

Globalized economies or globalized bodies？ The economical and cultural factors of obesity in China

This paper is a review of the literature that examines obesity in China. Multiple factors that contribute to this phenomenon are investigated, such as globalization, urbanization and cultural changes. Most of the researches reviewed in this paper concern urban, coastal populations of China. Obesity is defined differently for Asian populations; thus, diagnosis has been underestimated in the past. As China＇s economy develops, the country may now be gaining western problems, such as obesity. Obesity is related to economical causes as China participates in international business and trade. Furthermore, the role of the globalized food industry is reviewed. More western food companies and restaurants have infiltrated Chinese cities, causing mass changes in the traditional Chinese diet. Likewise, employment is a significant factor examined since more occupations in Chinese cities have transitioned to the service sector. Cultural attitudes differ from those of the West in which the Chinese view heavier bodies as healthier than thinner figures. Interventions that have been attempted are reviewed.     

Analysis of Policy of Investment in Science and Technology Based on CGE Model

Investment in science and technology is not only a significant indicator to reflect a regional scientific and technological strength and core competitiveness, but also important to technical progress and technology innovation. Investment in science and technology will affect the entire economy through technology innovation. In this paper, it analyzes the impact of Beijing investment in science and technology on regional economic development and builds a Beijing regional CGE （Computable General Equilibrium） model with an econometric module that links the investment in science and technology with technological progress. It finds that investment in science and technology will increase the Beijing GDP （Gross Domestic Product）, and promote economic structural adjustment. When the real investment in science and technology increases 1%, 2%, or 3%, Beijing GDP will respectively increase 0.93%, 1.22%, or 1.51%. From the perspective of resident＇s income, when investment in science and technology increase by 3%, the level of resident＇s income will increase by 3.24%. In view of the structure perspective of different sector＇s investment in science and technology, different investment in sectors will lead to different impact of economic growth and structure; results show that： when the priority of Beijing investment of different sector in science and technology is tertiary sectors, agricultural sector, and industry sectors, it is conducive to economic growth and industry structure adjustment.     

One-Stop Shops Reform in China as Sequencing： A Case of Chuzhou City

The article describes the action trajectory and the value concept of e-government service innovation in Chuzhou City, Anhui Province during 2006-2012. The background, value orientation, innovation, and reconstruction results as well as implementation strategy of the sequence of four rounds of reorganizing a one-stop shop structure are analyzed. From the perspective of overall efficiency of government services, some recommendations are put forward to break fragmented services of local government. At the level of central government, ideas and future directions have been discussed. In this respect, the Chuzhou City Government has been a pace-setter. Last year, it launched a new round of government reorganization. The aims are to realize every ordinary matter by applying one examination and approval and one review exercise; further increase the rate of on-spot handling; and try to ensure that for every complex matter, the three steps of reception, examination, and approval procedure should be completed in five days.     

Development of E-Governance and Electronic Services in Ministry of Finance

Over the last two decades, government has made essential changes in order to improve public administration functioning. These changes were driven by a new government philosophy. The key concept in this new public policy is to connect information society, and public administration. In this context, the purpose of this study is through analyzing the process of computerization of public administration to determine the specific services provided electronically to the National Revenue Agency （NRA） in Ministry of Finance. Ministry of Finance and NRA are the administrative bodies that are reformed significantly in this field. E-governance is a political concept and philosophy which includes principles and the public administration working mechanism. E-government is electronic services provision platform that uses information and communication technology. The extensive monitoring and analysis lead to conclusions in two key areas--legal and technical organization. The lack of consistency between governments and the total reorganization of some areas of the state causes difficulties in implementing cyber plan in administrative services. There are other essential weaknesses that corrupt the system electronic reforms. It is important to be created a digital broadband market in Bulgaria. This will integrate the network systems of Bulgarian official institutions in a common electronic network.     

Toward a Framework for the Sustainable Management of Social （Public） Housing Estates in Nigeria

Housing is a centre for many socio-economic activities and often provides a mark of prosperity, social acceptance, and an element of urban development and growth in a country. However, it is suspected that the significance of housing to people in the Niger Delta of Nigeria is lacking because of poor post-construction management practice that is currently in place. At the same time, there are housing shortages, uncompleted, vandalized and abandoned social housing stock in the Nigeria Delta. This has been a continuing challenge facing people in this region as reported in previous studies. Therefore, the overall aim of the study is to develop a framework for the sustainable management of social （public） housing estates in the Niger Delta of Nigeria. This paper aims to set out the context for the research, identify its overall aim and objectives and thereafter considers issues related to the determination of an appropriate scope for the study. It argues that the management of social housing estates in a sustainable manner needs to adopt the principles of sustainability in combination with effective people-centred management and building maintenance practices. It further asserts that the development of such a framework would be a panacea approach in meeting the social housing challenges faced in the Niger Delta and in Nigeria at large.     

Media influences and effects on experiences of uncertainty and fear in urban public spaces

From the point of a normative idea of equality, all citizens are entitled to equal access to the cities public spaces. In the public debate, the media have often been blamed for contributing to people＇s fear and insecurity and the avoidance of public places, especially after dark. In this paper, the author addresses the question of how and to what extent experiences of risk and threats in the media, perceptions of crime coverage in the media and third-person-effects of risk and threats influence the degree of avoidance of public places and the variation in people＇s experiences of the sensation of feeling fear and insecurity in public places. The main results presented here are primarily based on survey data from a well known regional survey （Western SOM） performed in 2001-2007 on approximately 3,000 inhabitants in the local region of Gothenburg, Sweden. Experiences of risk and threats through the media are of minor importance for the independent effect on the experiences of the sensation of feeling fear and insecurity in public spaces. The main role of the media is through the perceptions the respondents have on media coverage on crime and media influence on their own and others experiences of threats and risks. Those that believe that media coverage on crime is understated have to a greater extent avoided public places and experienced the sensation of feeling fear and insecurity than those that believe that media coverage of crime is coherent with reality or overstated. The third-person-effects that occur also have consequences. Those that believe that media influence experiences of threats and risks have to a greater extent experienced the sensation of feeling fear and insecurity than those that don＇t believe in media influence （on both others and themselves）. The main conclusion presented in this paper is that the avoidance of public places and variation in people＇s experiences of the sensation of feeling fear and insecurity in public places is more related to people＇s perceptions of media content and media influence regarding risk and threats than experiences of risk and threats through the media. This, however, doesn＇t mean that the experience of risk and threats through the media doesn＇t matter. Experience of risk and threats through the media matters, but do so through reinforcing personal and social experiences of risk and threats.     

The urban remains an important duty for the environment in Elbasan

The aim of this paper is to represent the concrete situation of urban remains regarding existing level of recycle rate, with managerial and runner＇s skills in this operation, funds and projects that are educe to this part and what is the perspective for the future. The methodology is based on surveys, data from the environment office and other sources. The augmentation of recycle rate is considered as an important and difficult part with a cost that exceeds the main cost of public health, which we pay today or will pay in the future. The conclusion is that this situation in Elbasan city is going to be worse.