Estimation of age in adolescents --the basilar synchondrosis

The state of fusion of the basilar synchondrosis as a biological age indicator was assessed in a sample of 91 cadavers of both sexes whose ages ranged between 8 and 26 years. The correlation between the degree of closure and chronological age was investigated. Although the female population sample was very small (n = 21), the data indicate a tendency of differences in age between the "open" and "closed" groups. In the male population (n = 70), no significant differences were detected between the "open" and "closed" categories; in fact, the mean age of the two groups was the same (p = 0.9). These findings indicate that the stage of fusion of the basilar synchondrosis is not a good indicator of age in male cadavers, while in females the feature could be useful when estimating age of unknown human remains, although further investigation on a larger sample is advocated.     

A Bayesian Approach to Age Estimation in Modern Americans from the Clavicle*

Abstract: Clavicles from 1289 individuals from cohorts spanning the 20th century were scored with two scoring systems. Transition analysis and Bayesian statistics were used to obtain robust age ranges that are less sensitive to the effects of age mimicry and developmental outliers than age ranges obtained using a percentile approach. Observer error tests showed that a simple three‐phase scoring system proved the least subjective, while retaining accuracy levels. Additionally, significant sexual dimorphism was detected in the onset of fusion, with women commencing fusion at least a year earlier than men (women transition to fusion at approximately 15 years of age and men at 16 years). Significant secular trends were apparent in the onset of skeletal maturation, with modern Americans transitioning to fusion approximately 4 years earlier than early 20th century Americans and 3.5 years earlier than Korean War era Americans. These results underscore the importance of using modern standards to estimate age in modern individuals.     

New Approaches to Age Estimation Using Palatal Suture Fusion

Palatal suture fusion has seen little testing and/or application due in part to an inadequately described relationship to formal age ranges. This study presents a modified scoring method that examines fusion on samples of modern documented adult males and compares two Bayesian approaches to age estimation. In the first analysis, American and Portuguese collections were used to derive univariate and multivariate transition analysis (TA) parameters, which combined with an informative prior, estimated age in a sample of modern Americans and Portuguese. For the second analysis, a Bayesian multiple linear regression (BMLR) used indicator statuses as the independent variables with age as the dependent variable. Highest posterior density regions (HPDRs) and highest posterior density intervals (HDI) were calculated for a holdout sample. Final age estimates for the methods were tested for accuracy using cumulative binomial tests at 75% and 90% coverages. The HPDRs from multivariate TA captured age better for younger individuals, but consistently underaged. The cumulative binomial tests on the BMLR results indicated the prediction intervals performed as expected, and we show they are narrower (more precise) and/or more accurate than the corresponding HPDR. The modified method presented here formally links palatal suture obliteration to age using two different approaches, one of which (BMLR) is new to the aging literature. The BMLR provided results free from bias and more reasonable age ranges while maintaining accuracy. We present a look-up table and a free, simple R file for users to download and run their own estimates with BMLR.     

Introducing Computed Tomography Standards for Age Estimation of Modern Australian Subadults Using Postnatal Ossification Timings of Select Cranial and Cervical Sites,

Contemporary, population‐specific ossification timings of the cranium are lacking in current literature due to challenges in obtaining large repositories of documented subadult material, forcing Australian practitioners to rely on North American, arguably antiquated reference standards for age estimation. This study assessed the temporal pattern of ossification of the cranium and provides recalibrated probabilistic information for age estimation of modern Australian children. Fusion status of the occipital and frontal bones, atlas, and axis was scored using a modified two‐ to four‐tier system from cranial/cervical DICOM datasets of 585 children aged birth to 10 years. Transition analysis was applied to elucidate maximum‐likelihood estimates between consecutive fusion stages, in conjunction with Bayesian statistics to calculate credible intervals for age estimation. Results demonstrate significant sex differences in skeletal maturation (p < 0.05) and earlier timings in comparison with major literary sources, underscoring the requisite of updated standards for age estimation of modern individuals.     

Age estimation and the developing third molar tooth: an analysis of an Australian population using computed tomography

The third molar tooth is one of the few anatomical sites available for age estimation of unknown age individuals in the late adolescent years. Computed tomography (CT) images were assessed in an Australian population aged from 15 to 25 years for development trends, particularly concerning age estimation at the child/adult transition point of 18 years. The CT images were also compared to conventional radiographs to assess the developmental scoring agreement between the two and it was found that agreement of Demirjian scores between the two imaging modalities was excellent. The relatively wide age ranges (mean ± 2SD) indicate that the third molar is not a precise tool for age estimation (age ranges of 3-8 years) but is, however, a useful tool for discriminating the adult/child transition age of 18 years. In the current study 100% of females and 96% of males with completed roots were over 18 years of age.     

中国豫北地区17～78岁人群锁骨骨骺愈合情况及年龄推断

目的通过观察分析锁骨内侧骨骺的愈合情况,评价其在年龄推断中的作用。方法收集343对已知年龄和性别的尸体锁骨,以1岁为组,观察分析锁骨内侧端骨骺愈合亭台变化,根据软骨细胞失去增值能力,骺软骨骨板被骨组织所代替情况进行分级分析,对所得数据进行统计学分析,按17～30岁和31岁以上年龄分组进行比较。结果男性和女性的锁骨最早于18岁开始愈合,22岁愈合完全。完全愈合时间在男性最迟为32岁,而女性为31岁。不同性别的骨骺愈合情况在两个年龄组中存在显著差异(P<0.01)。结论锁骨骨骺愈合情况随年龄的增长呈规律性变化,特别是17～32岁年龄段,根据锁骨骨骺愈合情况推断年龄,在法医学实践中有应用价值。     

Time of fusion of the basisphenoid with the basilar part of the occipital bone in northwest Indian subjects

To find out the time of fusion of the basisphenoid with the basilar part of the occipital bone in Northwest Indian subjects, a quadrilateral piece of bone extending from the posterior clinoid processes to the jugular tubercles was removed from 50 male and 34 female autopsy subjects between the ages of 10 and 20 years. The piece of bone was X-rayed and then macerated. In addition CT scan cuts of the basisphenoid were obtained in 46 male and 27 female living subjects between the age of 10 and 19 years. In the males, partial fusion was seen at 13 years while a complete fusion was noticed at 15 years in 25% of the subjects. The age of a boy showing complete fusion should be 15 years or above. If there is no fusion or partial fusion he should be below 19 years as complete fusion is seen in all male subjects at 19 years. In females, the earliest partial fusion was noted at 12 years and complete fusion was present at 13 years in 16.6%. All female subjects showed complete fusion at 17 years. The minimum age of a girl showing complete fusion should be 13 years; if no fusion or partial fusion is seen, her age should be below 17 years.     

Age Estimation from the Teeth Using a Modified Demirjian System*

Abstract: The estimation of age at time of death is often an important step in the identification of human remains. The purpose of this study was to test the applicability of the Demirjian system on a sample of the Sydney child population and to develop and test age‐prediction models using a large sample of Sydney children (1624 girls, 1637 boys). The use of the Demirjian standards resulted in consistent overestimates of chronological age in children under the age of 14 by as much as a mean of 0.99 years. Of the alternative predictive models derived from the Sydney sample, those that provided the most accurate age estimates are applicable for the age ranges 2–14 years, with R‐square = 0.94 and a 95% confidence interval of ±1.8 years. The Sydney‐based standards provided significantly different and more accurate estimates of age for that sample when compared to the published standards of Demirjian.     

The Reliability of the Greulich and Pyle Atlas When Applied to a Modern Scottish Population

This study examines the reliability of age estimation utilizing the Greulich and Pyle atlas in relation to a modern Scottish population. A total of 406 left‐hand/wrist radiographs (157 females and 249 males) were age‐assessed using the Greulich and Pyle atlas. Analysis showed that there was a strong correlation between chronological age and estimated age (females R² = 0.939, males R² = 0.940). When age groups were broken down into year cohorts, the atlas over‐aged females from birth until 13 years of age. The pattern for males showed that the atlas under‐estimated age until 13 years of age after which point it consistently over‐aged boys between 13 and 17 years of age. This study showed that the Greulich and Pyle atlas can be applied to a modern population but would recommend that any analysis takes into account the potential for over‐ and under‐aging shown in this study.     

A Bayesian approach to estimate skeletal age-at-death utilizing dental wear

In the forensic context, teeth are often recovered in mass disasters, armed conflicts, and mass graves associated with human rights violations. Therefore, for victim identification, techniques utilizing the dentition to estimate the first parameters of identity (e.g., age) can be critical. This analysis was undertaken to apply a Bayesian statistical method, transition analysis, based on the Gompertz-Makeham (GM) hazard model, to estimate individual ages-at-death for Balkan populations utilizing dental wear. Dental wear phases were scored following Smith's eight-phase ordinal scoring method and chart. To estimate age, probability density functions for the posterior distributions of age for each tooth phase are calculated. Transition analysis was utilized to generate a mean age-of-transition from one dental wear phase to the next. The age estimates are based on the calculated age distribution from the GM hazard analysis and the ages-of-transition. To estimate the age-at-death for an individual, the highest posterior density region for each phase is calculated. By using a Bayesian statistical approach to estimate age, the population's age distribution is taken into account. Therefore, the age estimates are reliable for the Balkan populations, regardless of population or sex differences. The results showed that a vast amount of interpersonal variation in dental wear exists within the current sample and that this method may be most useful for classifying unknown individuals into broad age cohorts rather than small age ranges.     

Age Estimation from Radiographic Images of the Knee

This study examines the reliability of age estimation utilizing the Pyle and Hoerr atlas in relation to a modern Scottish population. The knee radiographs of 442 individuals (168 females, 274 males) were age assessed using the Pyle and Hoerr atlas. Analysis showed that there was a strong correlation between chronological age and estimated age (females R² = 0.968, males R² = 0.952). For females, the atlas method was most accurate between the ages of 9 and 15 years of age with an underage of 2.27 months and an overage of 2.38 months. For males, the atlas consistently overestimated age from the age of 9 years to the age of 16 years from between 0.14 and 8.81 months. The standard deviation for females was 9.86 months and for males was 10.75 months. This study showed that the Pyle and Hoerr atlas can be applied to a modern population with small modifications.     

Auricular Surface Aging: Comparing Two Methods that Assess Morphological Change in the Ilium with Bayesian Analyses

Modern standards in forensic anthropology require rigorous testing and evaluation of methods used for aging skeletal remains. Age estimation has been criticized for bias, inaccuracy, and population specificity; issues which are minimized by the application of Bayesian methodology. Using Bayesian statistics, we compare the Lovejoy et al. (Am J Phys Anthropol, 68, 1985, 15) (original) and Buckberry and Chamberlain (Am J Phys Anthropol, 119, 2002, 231) (revised) auricular surface aging methods. Transition analysis parameters derived from American males (n = 372), in combination with a Thai male (N = 37) informative prior, statistically model age in Portuguese males (n = 221). Cumulative binomial tests assess the accuracy of the generated age ranges. Overall, the application of transition analysis and Bayesian statistics significantly improved age estimation with both methods (also outperforming Suchey‐Brooks pubic symphysis aging). Moreover, the accuracy of the original method was low without statistical modeling, whereas the revised method can be applied accurately without further statistical analysis. Additionally, reference tables for aging Portuguese males are provided.     

Evaluation of age estimation technique: testing traits of the acetabulum to estimate age at death in adult males

This study evaluates the accuracy and precision of a skeletal age estimation method, using the acetabulum of 100 male ossa coxae from the Grant Collection (GRO) at the University of Toronto, Canada. Age at death was obtained using Bayesian inference and a computational application (IDADE2) that requires a reference population, close in geographic and temporal distribution to the target case, to calibrate age ranges from scores generated by the technique. The inaccuracy of this method is 8 years. The direction of bias indicates the acetabulum technique tends to underestimate age. The categories 46-65 and 76-90 years exhibit the smallest inaccuracy (0.2), suggesting that this method may be appropriate for individuals over 40 years. Eighty-three percent of age estimates were ±12 years of known age; 79% were ±10 years of known age; and 62% were ±5 years of known age. Identifying a suitable reference population is the most significant limitation of this technique for forensic applications.     

Forensic Age-at-Death Estimation from the Human Sacrum*

Abstract: A new method is described here that incorporates seven developmental and degenerative changes for estimating chronological age from morphological features of the human sacrum. The construction of this method involved multiple stages of trait identification, character-state definition and age correlation, rank-order phase development, and percent-correct sample testing with phase and sample aggregation, all of which resulted in a six-phase component system for application on modern individuals. This phase system was first developed on European American male and female samples from the Hamann-Todd collection; then tested on African American male and female Hamann-Todd samples as well as European American male and females from the WM Bass collection to examine possible sex and/or ancestry differences. Variation in age estimates due to sex and ancestry was negligible; thus, the multiple samples were all pooled creating a robust method with a large sample size. Overall age ranges increase in width at two standard deviations as is expected from degenerative age-related processes but retain utility in forensic situations.     

应用膝关节MRI T_2加权脂肪抑制像推断活体年龄

目的探索膝关节MRI T2加权脂肪抑制像(T2-FS)在法医年龄推断中的应用价值,建立安全可靠的四川汉族年龄推断方法。方法收集膝关节MRI 324例(男性170例,女性154例),年龄范围为10~30岁。采用西门子1.5T磁共振仪摄片,MRI参数:T2-FS TSE序列,矢状位。将股骨远端、胫骨近端骨骺发育分为6个等级并赋分,分析各指标性别差异及年龄相关性,建立年龄推断回归模型。结果男女性股骨远端、胫骨近端MRI等级与年龄呈正相关性,股骨远端与年龄的相关性男性0.687,女性0.661;胫骨近端与年龄的相关性男性0.684,女性0.488。股骨远端骨骺完全闭合,骺线消失的最小年龄男性18.42岁,女性19.36岁;胫骨近端男性骺线消失的最小年龄为16.93岁,女性为14.68岁。股骨远端等级1~3、5、6和胫骨近端等级1~3、5年龄分布性别差异不显著。分别建立男女年龄推断模型,男性年龄推断平均绝对误差(MAD)=2.90岁;女性年龄推断MAD=3.30岁。结论膝关节MRI T2-FS影像可作为活体年龄推断的指标之一,股骨远端等级6可作为判断18岁的指标之一。     

Age estimation using CT imaging of the third molar tooth, the medial clavicular epiphysis, and the spheno-occipital synchondrosis: a multifactorial approach

A multi-factorial method for estimating age was devised based on the development of the 3rd molar tooth, the medial clavicular epiphysis, and the spheno-occipital synchondrosis, using multiple regression as the means to construct age estimation formulae and CT scanning as the imaging modality. The sample consisted of approximately 600 individuals from a contemporary Australian population, between the ages of 15 and 25 years, who were admitted to the Victorian Institute of Forensic Medicine, Melbourne, Australia, for the purposes of medico-legal death investigation. Results show that the spheno-occipital synchondrosis does not contribute to the age estimation model for this age cohort. The regression computation for the 3rd molar tooth and medial clavicle, when combined into a single multiple regression calculation, provides a robust model with tighter age ranges at the 95% confidence interval (CI) than when each age marker is used individually. This research provides a method to estimate age for unknown age Australian individuals in the problematic age group of 15-25 years with greater precision than previously possible.