The Rationality of Rational Choice Theory

Rational choice theory has long been criticized, with several recent critiques of applications in political science in general and international relations in particular. In this paper, I seek to clarify discussion about rationality in several ways. I discuss the role of assumptions in theory and the assumption of rationality in rational choice theory. I demonstrate that many critiques of rational choice theory have been misguided , since instrumental rationality-the rationality of rational choice theory-is applicable to a wide variety of social situations, including situations where various psychological, informational, and structural factors claimed to interfere with rational decision-making are present. I also focus on three applications of rational choice theory in international relations that demonstrate ways that rational choice theorists have potentially added to confusion about the rationality assumption and created disillusionment in others about the rational choice enterprise. Finally, I point out that, since rational choice theory is not a single theory, critics' claims about the non-falsifiability of rational choice are immaterial. An understanding of these issues facilitates movement by the international relations community away from argument over the assumption of rationality and on to more productive and integrative theory building.     

《莱特战记》与大冈升平的战争观

大冈升平的《莱特战记》在详细记录太平洋战争末期日美两国军队在菲律宾莱特岛的攻防战的同时,也表达了作家本人对这场战争的看法。他一方面描写了战争的残酷,触及了日军的加害事实,批判了军队机构的冷酷,表明了反对战争的态度。另一方面,他又混淆战争性质,片面强调美国的战争责任,为日军的侵略罪行辩解,从狭隘的民族主义立场出发赞颂日军在战争中的抵抗。他虽然剖析了日军失败的原因,指出了日本军部在战争进程中的失误,但是并没有追究他们发动侵略战争责任的动机。     

Negotiated Exits from Organized Crime? Building Peace in Conflict and Crime‐affected Contexts

This article contributes to a growing discussion in peace mediation and peacebuilding circles about the issue of dialogue and negotiation with organized crime groups. The article seeks to demystify this issue by exploring the range of practice from confrontation to accommodation and transformation. The article argues that there is nothing unusual about engaging in dialogue and negotiation with organized crime groups and that those strategies have been used for decades in crime and violence reduction efforts in urban and civil war settings. In their quest to resolve conflict in violent and fragile contexts, mediators and negotiators can adapt existing peacebuilding practice to help structure dialogue processes with organized crime groups.     

俄罗斯生态犯罪的立法评析及借鉴

俄罗斯刑法通过生态犯罪的设立保护生态环境,俄罗斯生态犯罪立法的价值取向、范围及处罚方式等,值得中国刑法立法的借鉴。中国刑法应设立生态犯罪以取代传统环境犯罪;中国生态犯罪应将生态法益作为保护的必要要件,其立法范围也要予以拓展。     

Forecasting crime and narcobusiness: Iraq after the war

While it is still too early to analyse the consequences of the war in Iraq, the chaos and crime that immediately followed the end of the war has led to an analysis of the post‐war strategy. What we have specifically to explore is how certain assumptions and ‘blind spots’ have prevented us from formulating a useful strategy for dealing with illicit activity in the aftermath of conflicts. As a result, we are constantly surprised by upsurges in crime and drug production and trafficking, and thus are being forced to react to situations that we are not prepared for, nor fully understand. This need not be the case as we have the experience of the last two decades to draw upon, provided we analyse it in a more sophisticated manner.     

A social theory of war: Clausewitz and war reconsidered

This article presents a new theory of war that is grounded in the insights of Clausewitz on the social nature of conflict. Clausewitz had argued that war is a political process; he therefore distinguished between ‘war’—understood in political terms—and warfare—understood as fighting. He then created a typology covering a spectrum of war ranging from total to limited, the political stakes of a conflict determining where it would fall on the spectrum. I develop and modify this basic framework by arguing that the social organization of the actors has a determining role in predicting the stakes of war. I then show how this framework helps us understand some key problems in the political science literature on war and conflict. I attempt to show two main things: (1) that there are different types of wars (and that these differences are not necessarily related to the standing of the actors, i.e. the presence or absence of sovereignty); and (2) that how war and warfare are related is more complicated than previously understood and that this has implications for the political science literature on order, conflict and violence.     

Science,security and spies

Abstract

The national research and development (R&D) base has in the post-cold war era gained increased importance in order to fill new security demands. There is a broadening of the search for security relevant science and technology involving more organizations and interests, scientific disciplines and nations. The question discussed in this article is if the premises of international, free and open R&D will be(come) compromised? Will we see more scientists, in their normal scientific activities, being accused of spying? The article suggests that such risks are not unrealistic to expect. Spy cases in less democratic countries could have consequences for scientists also in other countries. Outcomes depend on, among other things, the relative strengths of academic freedom and a political Identification Friend and Foe (IFF) component. United Nations and European Union resolutions restricting science education for students from Iran and North Korea in an attempt to prevent the spread of nuclear weapons illustrate a strong IFF component. Difficulties with regard to the implementation of these resolutions and other findings are presented in the final section of the article.     

Eugene: A conceptual manual

The study of international relations using quantitative analysis relies, in part, on the availability of comprehensive and easily manipulable data sets. To execute large‐n statistical tests of hypotheses, data must be available on the variables of interest, and those data must be manipulated into a suitable format to allow the inclusion of appropriate control variables as well as variables of central theoretical interest This paper introduces software designed to eliminate many of the difficulties commonly involved in constructing large international relations data sets, and with the unavailability of data on expected utility theories of war.

In order to solve these two problems, we developed EUGene (the Expected Utility Generation and Data Management Program). EUGene is a stand‐alone Microsoft Windows based program for the construction of annual data sets for use in quantitative studies of international relations. It generates data for variables necessary to incorporate key variables from implementations of the so‐called “expected utility theory of war” into broader analyses of international conflict EUGene is also designed to make building international relations data sets simple. It accomplishes this by automating a variety of tasks necessary to integrate several data building blocks commonly used in tests of international relations theories.     

Science and the media in South Africa: Reflecting a ‘dirty mirror’

Abstract

The public understanding of science is vital in any society, to counter pseudoscientific claims and quackery. The relationship between scientists and the media (the latter often the only channel through which scientific findings reach the public) was studied within a South African framework. An empirical survey was conducted by means of a comprehensive questionnaire sent to 740 South African scientists and researchers and 360 journalists. Because the media are important in the public understanding of science, the survey tried to establish the depth of and possible reasons for distrust between the two professions and what structures could be put in place to overcome this. This study found some significant differences in the views of scientists and journalists about the role of science in society, how it could be communicated to the public, and the reasons for this dichotomy. Finally, proposals to bridge the gap between scientists and the media are made: the media should give serious attention to raise the standards of science reporting by establishing science desks headed by properly trained science editors and well-trained science reporters. On the other hand, scientists should be trained to communicate better with the media and, therefore, the public.     

Defending the ‘postwar petroleum order’: The US,Britain and the 1954 Saudi‐Onassis Tanker deal

During the early Cold War, Britain and the US fashioned a set of arrangements described collectively in this article as the ‘postwar petroleum order’, which appropriated Persian Gulf oil to fuel European reconstruction and defence. When Saudi Arabia organized a state oil‐tanker company with Aristotle Onassis in 1954, it challenged the terms of those arrangements. The affair provides a case study in contrasting British and American approaches towards oil diplomacy and Arab nationalism. Whereas London crusaded for an Anglo‐American campaign to abolish the Saudi‐Onassis company, Washington wanted the Arabian‐American Oil Company to accomplish the same objective by providing financial incentives to King Sa'ud's government.     

发心中所感 斥战争之罪——论大江健三郎随笔的反战观

大江健三郎在文学创作活动中 ,是把小说和随笔视为“文学生活中的车之两轮” ,他通过文学中“两轮”的“随笔”之轮对侵略战争进行总清算。即日本对中国和亚洲各国发动战争的目的是灭亡中国、征服亚洲 ,战争的性质是侵略战争 ,战争的责任由日本承担。日本必须向中国及亚洲各被害国赎罪、道歉、赔偿 ,才能得到中国及亚洲各国人民的谅解和信任。     

俄罗斯的科技资源及对外科技合作政策研究

俄罗斯科技资源丰富,拥有数目庞大的高素质科研人员队伍,并在众多科技领域保持着世界领先的地位。世界各国对俄罗斯的科技资源都非常重视,通过给予优厚报酬、提供良好科研条件等种种方式,吸引俄罗斯科技人员到本国工作。俄罗斯的科技优势主要表现在基础研究与高新技术领域,在军工与航天技术方面,处于世界领先地位,近几年在医药与生物技术以及民用技术等方面都有很大发展。研究俄罗斯的科技资源及对外科技合作政策对于加强中俄之间的科技合作与发展意义重大。     

Another look at the intent element for the war crime of terrorism

The modern basis of the war crime of terrorism may be found in the terms of article 51(2) of Additional Protocol I (1977) to the Geneva Conventions of 1949, replicated in article 13(2) of Additional Protocol II. The provision forbids attacks carried out for the ‘primary purpose of spreading terror’ among a civilian population. In view of this provision, the judges of the International Criminal Tribunal for the former Yugoslavia have pronounced terrorism to be a crime of ‘specific intent’. In an extension of this reasoning, a Trial Chamber of the Special Court for Sierra Leone has recently held that the crimes of enslavement and militarization of children do not qualify as terrorism, because they were not found to have been committed for the ‘primary purpose of spreading terror’. The aim of this paper is to examine the correctness and limits of the proposition that terrorism is a crime of specific intent. In the context of that inquiry, the Rome Statute is examined for what it is able to contribute to the discussion.     

International Relations Theory and the Second Korean War

Ever since the first Korean war in 1950, scholars and policymakers have been predicting a second one, started by an invasion from the North. Whether seen as arising from preventive, preemptive, desperation, or simple aggressive motivations, the predominant perspective in the west sees North Korea as likely to instigate conflict. Yet for fifty years North Korea has not come close to starting a war. Why were so many scholars so consistently wrong about North Korea's intentions? Social scientists can learn as much from events that did not happen as from those that did. The case of North Korea provides a window with which to examine these theories of conflict initiation, and reveals how the assumptions underlying these theories can become mis-specified. Either scholars misunderstood the initial conditions, or they misunderstood the theory, and I show that scholars have made mistakes in both areas. Social science moves forward from clear statement of a theory, its causal logic, and its predictions. However, just as important is the rigorous assessment of a theory, especially if the predictions fail to materialize. North Korea never had the material capabilities to be a serious contender to the U.S.–ROK alliance, and it quickly fell further behind. The real question has not been whether North Korea would preempt as South Korea caught up, but instead why North Korea might fight as it fell further and further behind. The explanation for a half-century of stability and peace on the Korean peninsula is actually quite simple: deterrence works.     

The African post-conflict policing agenda in Sierra Leone

This article examines policing in Sierra Leone four years after the civil war. It evaluates the achievements in the area of policing against the major policing challenges in African post-conflict societies. These are recruitment and (re)training of a civilian force; establishing an organizational culture that is accountable and responsive to citizen concerns; organizational rebuilding and re-equipment; utilizing the resources of commercial and community organized policing; and establishing a sustainable basis. The research finds that for all the positive achievements, the fact remains that the government of Sierra Leone still does not exert effective control over, nor is it able to deliver state policing services to, significant parts of its own territory. The 7,000 active police officers are too small in number and too limited in resources to provide all Sierra Leone's citizens with a service that protects them from crime and investigates crime. Its fundamental weaknesses mean that post-conflict internal security programmes may have to look again at others who currently authorize and provide policing. It may be that some community led policing groups can be harnessed and if necessary reformed to assist the police in establishing the rule of law.     

War,liberalism, and modernity: the biopolitical provocations of ‘Empire’

The relationships between war, liberalism and modernity remain heavily under‐theorised within international relations. Existing critiques emphasise the ways in which the developments of liberal societies have been facilitated by the deployment of instrumental forms of force and violence in the extension and control of spaces beyond the boundaries of the zone of ‘liberal peace’. Yet, the ordinary functioning of liberal societies themselves can also be understood in terms of the roles of war. This article utilises ideas derived from Michel Foucault and Antonio Negri to advance our understanding of the ways in which liberal powers pursue security through the creation of what this author terms a logistical order of relations between the subjects that they govern. Simultaneously, the strategisation of social relations within liberal societies fosters the development of new forms of antagonistic subjectivities that contest the logistical foundations of liberal societies. This dual set of developments poses problematic questions as to how we should understand the relationships between the organisation of liberal societies and the forms of resistance that emerge in their midst. As the author details, these questions are made all the more pressing by the current context of the War on Terror.     

Change and Stasis: The Institutionalisation of Developing Country Mitigation in the International Climate Regime

Diplomacy is an institution that has undergone tremendous change over the last century—not least in relation to the new, supranational institutions of the European Community/European Union. Nonetheless, it is only very recently that political scientists and historians have taken an interest in the changes brought about by European integration processes for diplomatic norms, roles, and practices. This article investigates the background for this late and limited interest. It does so by comparing and contrasting dominant theoretical trends that have shaped research on European diplomacy in the two disciplines since the Second World War. Against this background it briefly evaluates the recent surge in research on diplomacy and the European Union within political science, and it points to possible avenues for further, joint, research combining the transnational and sociological approaches adopted by political scientists with the attention to temporality and national specificities characteristic of historians' dealings with European diplomacy.     

Defining Civil War by Examining Post-Soviet Conflicts

Great many violent events happened during 1991–2005 in the 12 states that emerged after the collapse of the USSR but only a few civil wars are registered in the major datasets. That brings up a number of questions about the operational definitions of civil war that generally point in the direction of shifting the research attention from refining the quantitative parameters to grasping the essense of the phenomena in question. It is proposed that civil war partially overlaps with several other type of violent crisis: inter-state wars, civil unrest and revolutions, internal repression, military coups and mutinies, banditry and organized crime, and terrorism. These overlaps create six ‘gray zones’ where only very nuanced examination rather than application of rigid criteria could help in distinguishing civil wars from other crises. Therefore, data collection based on a single “robust” definition, which incorporates several verifiable parameters, is not necessarily the only path to scientific knowledge about civil wars.