Back to the future: How Serbia is heading the way of post‐versailles Germany

This analogy written before Milosevic's ouster theorizes that Serbia in the aftermath of Kosovo mirrors Germany after 1919 as a nation forced to accept an imposed peace. From the evidence a resurgence of Serb nationalism and territorial ambition is still inevitable. Various parallels support this conclusion including the use of post‐war sanctions, demands to hand over a wanted war criminal and owe up to guilt, geographical fragmentation, political uncertainty, economic depression, and military association with Russia. The salient point remains one of oversight by the victors to acknowledge an ignominious settlement is the source of all grievances and patterns of instability.     

The Balkans and the enlargement of NATO: A sceptical view

Throughout the Cold War, NATO and the USA worked hard to consolidate their strategic presence in Europe, while at the same time containing the Soviet threat. But the road taken by NATO in its effort to reform itself after the collapse of Communism and the disintegration of the Warsaw Pact, has not been a royal path, smooth and free of risk. NATO's geopolitical and selective way of eastward expansion encourages the creation of new ‘enemy blocs’ with Russia at their epicentre. The clash between NATO and the European Union over defence and security issues becomes all the more obvious. The humanitarian war over Kosovo was a risky affair whose spillover effects are badly felt today with the uprising of Albanian Macedonians; The Kosovo war, moreover, created a unique precedent in the conduct of foreign policy and clearly bordered on ‘double standard’ politics. Last but not least, the wider implications of Turkey's entry into the European Union may not be, in the long run, as positive for NATO as initially thought they would be.

This article offers a critical overview of NATO's reform process in the 1990s and argues that its transformation from a military defence pact into a political organisation upholding and selectively implementing liberal‐democratic principles may lead the alliance into serious political deadlocks in the years to come.     

The Short‐Term Effects of Mediation on Low‐Intensity Civil Wars

International diplomacy, to the extent it is effective, should not only prevent escalation of low‐intensity conflict, but should also facilitate de‐escalation. This article focuses on the short‐term effects of managing low‐intensity civil wars through third‐party mediation. Specifically, we compare the efficacy of third party‐mediated direct (face‐to‐face) and indirect talks in low‐intensity civil wars from 1993 to 2004 using the Managing Intrastate Low‐Intensity Conflict data set. We argue that a focus on short‐term success is valid because of the relationship among mediation, short‐term success, humanitarian aid access, and peacebuilding. We also assess the roles of mediator identity, mediation strategy (behavior focus versus incompatibility focus), peace agreements, war type, per capita gross domestic product, level of democracy, and conflict duration. Our overarching finding is that direct forms of mediation in which all parties meet face to face were the most likely to yield short‐term success in the sample of civil wars that we analyzed.     

俄罗斯新版国家安全战略评析

2021年7月2日,俄出台新版《俄罗斯联邦国家安全战略》,其中有许多新变化值得关注.俄认为,当前国际形势动荡不安,地缘政治紧张局势日益加剧,武力仍是解决国家间冲突矛盾的重要手段.俄当前国家安全面临的主要威胁是美西方针对其进行的"混合战争",具体包括军事威胁、经济制裁和政治施压.为此,新战略提出的基本战略目标是维护国内、...     

Breaking the war‐economy link

We present evidence that the causal link from world production to war severity (as documented by Goldstein) begins to break down by the time of the Franco‐Prussian War. To explain this finding we develop a simple choice‐theoretic model based on the assumption of a long‐term decline in the (average) net economic benefits of war, as perceived by policymakers. We derive some additional macro‐level implications of this micro‐level model and discuss the ways in which advances in economic institutionalization provide policymakers with increasingly attractive alternative avenues for their pursuit of power and wealth.     

A threat to Europe? Middle east ties with the Balkans and their impact upon terrorist activity throughout the region

The internecine warfare in the former Yugoslavia has radicalised many Islamic movements in the region and facilitated close links between local Balkan groups and Middle East states as well as terrorist organisations. This article examines the spread of militant Islamic fundamentalism in the Balkans as well as in Kosovo, Macedonia, Bulgaria, Turkey, and Albania. The scope of linkages between Balkan Islamic movements and Iran pose serious concern for Western governments as a long‐term threat to any stability and democratisation in the Balkan region as it has intensified illegal activity throughout the area and heightened irredentist claims.     

Dealing with dictators: Westphalian and American strategies

The 1648 Westphalia settlement contained a recipe for the toleranceof political and religious diversity within states. Until the twentiethcentury, European governments generally tolerated a pluralityof political forms. Breaking with the Westphalian tradition,the Bolsheviks were the first to deny moral and diplomatic legitimacyto ‘bourgeois’ regimes. Although the United Stateshas recognized, placated and supported a number of dictatorships,it has also used extreme measures to oust regimes that do notmeet unspecified tests of democracy. The United States, breaking rankswith the UN Security Council strategy of containing Hussein,has sought to destroy him through bombing. The Rambouillet agreement,I argue, was a case of ‘faux’ diplomacy, an ultimatumdesigned to provoke Milosevic to war. American responses topolitical diversity in the world raise a number of importantquestions about the continuation of the Westphalian tradition.Are we to have a world of political heterogeneity or homogeneity?If the latter, who will decide on the criteria for inclusionin the club of states, and how will the decisions be made?     

巴尔干国际治理:科索沃案例

冲突后地区的国际治理是冷战后国际社会面临的新挑战.本文对国际治理的起源进行了简要分析,考察了巴尔干国际治理的条件与功能,较为全面地探讨了科索沃国际治理的背景、法律依据、实际运作及其经验,并对科索沃独立后国际治理的演化进行了简要评述.     

Mediation and the Art of Shuttle Diplomacy

Mediation caucusing — that is, separate meetings conducted by the mediator with some, but not all, of the parties — is widely used, but it has become increasingly controversial, as some mediators advocate for a no‐caucus form of mediation using only joint sessions with all parties present. The rationale for the no‐caucus model is that caucuses give the mediator too much power at the expense of the parties, and joint sessions improve the parties' understanding of each other's views. But caucusing adds value to mediation in several ways. First, from the standpoint of economic theory, caucusing provides mediators with an important tool for overcoming two impediments to settlement — the “prisoner's dilemma” (caused by the parties' fear of mutual exploitation) and “adverse selection” (caused by the failure to disclose information). Second, caucusing can help the mediator overcome a variety of negotiation problems, such as communication barriers, unrealistic expectations, emotional barriers, intraparty conflict, and fear of losing face. Third, caucusing provides a more private setting in which the mediator can develop a deeper and more personal understanding of the parties' needs and interests. Although the no‐caucus model may be appropriate for certain types of mediation (particularly those cases in which the parties will have an ongoing relationship), some parties may prefer the efficiency that can be achieved with caucusing, even if that means sacrificing certain other values — such as greater understanding — or giving the mediator more information than the parties have, thus creating the risk of manipulation by the mediator. Moreover, the choice is not binary — numerous variations and hybrid formats can be useful, such as sessions in which the mediator meets with only the parties' lawyers or with only the parties. Choosing the best format for a mediation is more of an art than a science, and mediators should consider, with the parties, whether the parties' objectives would be best served using only joint sessions, extensive caucusing, or a combination of these approaches.     

Democratization after Civil Wars – Key Problems and Experiences

Democratization and peace-building in post-civil war situations are closely interlinked. To analyse the difficulties of post-war democratization, and especially democratization as attempted by external and international actors, this article deals with the problem in several stages: first, it will provide a brief overview of the recent discourse on the topic, to place the discussion into the political and academic context. Second, it will focus on the reasons for and the types of civil wars, and the actors involved, because these provide the starting points of any attempt of post-war democratization and will determine the conditions for success and failure. Third, the key structural problems for post-civil war democratization will be explored, including ethnic fragmentation, followed by a brief analysis of the specific role, opportunities and limits of external actors in democratization. Finally, we will try to formulate a few hypotheses and conclusions to help explain the limited success of external democracy building in post-war societies, concentrating on the cases of Bosnia, Kosovo, Afghanistan, and Iraq. The account concludes that without the necessary preconditions for democratization in post-conflict societies, external attempts will be of little success. Among the key requirements is the need for a strong and organized social base for democratization to build on. On the other hand, contradictions in the policies of intervening powers are a major hindrance.     

论朝鲜半岛多边安全合作机制

冷战时期 ,朝鲜半岛形成了美苏之间军事和意识形态上两极体制上的对立。但随着冷战的结束 ,韩俄、韩中、美俄、美中等国家间实现了政治上的和解。东北亚地区的安全环境发生了巨大的变化 ,出现了多样的国际行为体 ,形成了多元化的结构 ,致使这一地区内国家间各种合作的重要性也在不断加强。在变化了的安全状况下 ,会产生建立多边安全合作机制的要求。面向 2 1世纪 ,多边安全合作机制对于保障国家安全、地区稳定以及东北亚和平与繁荣有着重大的影响 ,也是非常必要的。     

The Versailles Settlement and Identity in French Flanders

This article examines the local reactions to the Versailles negotiations and final settlement along the north-eastern frontier of France, discussing both immediate reactions to the post-war conditions, as well as longer-term trends in identity formation within the region. It shows that the practical considerations of rebuilding after the war outweighed desire for revenge upon Germany, and that on average they were less interested in forcing Germany to pay more, than ensuring the short term costs were met whoever paid them. It also shows that the peace settlement did have a concrete effect in solidifying the border as a marker of identity, with increasing distinction made between the French Flemish and the neighbouring Belgian population.     

The Versailles Settlement and Identity in French Flanders

This article examines the local reactions to the Versailles negotiations and final settlement along the north-eastern frontier of France, discussing both immediate reactions to the post-war conditions, as well as longer-term trends in identity formation within the region. It shows that the practical considerations of rebuilding after the war outweighed desire for revenge upon Germany, and that on average they were less interested in forcing Germany to pay more, than ensuring the short term costs were met whoever paid them. It also shows that the peace settlement did have a concrete effect in solidifying the border as a marker of identity, with increasing distinction made between the French Flemish and the neighbouring Belgian population.     

Britain,France, and Mesopotamian Oil, 1916–1920

This analysis centres on British and French policies concerning Mesopotamian oil between 1916 and 1920. Both Powers already had some degree of interest in oil matters before the war, but these concerns did not leave a particularly strong imprint on the Sykes-Picot Agreement of 1916. During the First World War, both Britain and France became aware of their lack of oil and identified Mesopotamian oil as a key war aim. Both Powers developed close relations with Royal Dutch-Shell to further their oil policies. After the war, the struggle for oil proved inseparable from the territorial settlement in the Middle East and relations with oil companies. All actors did not initially recognise this fact, and it was only during 1919–1920 that an increasing awareness developed that oil and territorial issues were inseparable. Combined with changes in political leadership, it made possible a “silent compromise” at San Remo in April 1920.     

Liberal intervention in the foreign policy thinking of Tony Blair and David Cameron

David Cameron was a critic of Tony Blair's doctrine of the ‘international community’, which was used to justify war in Kosovo and more controversially in Iraq, suggesting caution in projecting military force abroad while in opposition. However, and in spite of making severe cuts to the defence budget, the Cameron-led Coalition government signed Britain up to a military intervention in Libya within a year of coming into office. What does this say about the place liberal interventionism occupies in contemporary British foreign policy? To answer this question, this article studies the nature of what we describe as the ‘bounded liberal’ tradition that has informed British foreign policy thinking since 1945, suggesting that it puts a distinctly UK national twist on conventional conservative thought about international affairs. Its components are: scepticism of grand schemes to remake the world; instinctive Atlanticism; security through collective endeavour; and anti-appeasement. We then compare and contrast the conditions for intervention set out by Tony Blair and David Cameron. We explain the similarities but crucially the vital differences between the two leaders' thinking on intervention, with particular reference to Cameron's perception that Downing Street needed to loosen its control over foreign policymaking after Iraq. Our argument is that policy substance, policy style and party political dilemmas prompted the two leaders to reconnect British foreign policy with its ethical roots, ingraining a bounded liberal posture in British foreign policy after the moral bankruptcy of the John Major years. This return to a pragmatic and ethically informed foreign policy meant that military operations in Kosovo and Libya were undertaken in quite different circumstances, yet came to be justified by similar arguments from the two leaders.     

A tale of a decade: European security governance and Russia

In the decade since the fall of the Berlin Wall the governance of European security has undergone a profound transformation. The beginning of this decade witnessed the end of the Cold War and, in parallel, the establishment of relatively inclusive mechanisms for addressing security‐related issues. While these mechanisms have largely endured (and, indeed, have been complemented by other types of interaction) they have not prevented the emergence of forms of exclusion on the continent. This is a condition of particular significance to Russia. Compared with its Soviet predecessor, it now enjoys far less influence in European security. Its exclusion, however, is only relative. Russia has retained a meaningful role and ‐ recent controversies over NATO enlargement and Kosovo notwithstanding ‐ the bases of its accommodation with the West still remain in place.     

Ukraine’s President Zelensky Takes the Russia/Ukraine War Viral

As Russia amassed thousands of troops and tanks on Ukraine’s border at the end of 2021 and the threat of nuclear war loomed large, Ukraine’s leadership ramped up a distinctly non-physical counter-offensive. President Volodymyr Zelensky and his tech savvy team focused on building a communications machine harnessing social media messaging, marketing savvy and celebrity to fight Russia digitally as well as directly on the battlefield. Never has a sitting president relied so heavily on various social apps to communicate both at home and abroad, and to build Ukraine’s brand. Whether or not this strategy is sustainable amidst a protracted war and short internet attention spans is yet to be seen, but Zelensky has made a case for marketing war that other leaders are sure to follow.     

The beginning of a new cold war?

The proactive policies of the United States in expanding NATO, its bombing of Iraq in December 1998, NATO's air war on Yugoslavia in 1999 in which the Chinese embassy in Belgrade was accidentally bombed, and the United States’ new perspectives on the use of force in the global arena have led to increasing resentment and tensions on the part of Russia and the PRC. As Washington is seeking new rationales for the unilateral use of force worldwide, or circumventing the use of sanctions, of the UN Security Council before taking military actions, Russia and China are becoming increasingly convinced that the United States is bent upon establishing its global hegemony. Obviously, neither Russia nor China will let this increasing proactivism go unchallenged.     

Civil War Settlements,Size of Governing Coalition,and Durability of Peace in Post–Civil War States

We examine the ways in which the size of the governing coalition in a post–civil war state affects the durability of the peace. Previous studies relate the durability of the peace to the outcome of the civil war, the extent and forms of power-sharing arrangements, and the role of third-party security guarantors. We argue that the way conflict terminates and the power-sharing agreements between former protagonists structure the composition of governing coalition in the post–civil war state. Any settlement to civil war that broadens the size of the governing coalition should increase actors' incentives to sustain the peace rather than renew the armed conflict. Peace is more likely to fail where the governing coalition is smaller because those excluded from the governing coalition have little to lose from resuming armed rebellion. To test these propositions, we analyze data on post–civil war peace spells from 1946–2005.     

Repression,Grievances, Mobilization,and Rebellion: A New Test of Gurr’s Model of Ethnopolitical Rebellion

The concept of polarity has been subject to imprecise and often diverse use. This note explores problems associated with the varied use of the term and proposes an alternative approach to classifying international systems which treats horizontal and vertical dimensions of power as distinct structural variables. In this approach, the present system is distinguished from the classical balance of power system containing pluralized patterns of conflict on the one hand and from the Cold War system with a marked concentration of power on the other. In the contemporary system polarized patterns of conflict coexist with processes of power diffusion. To the extent polarizations persist in a more diffuse power setting, the decentralized power balancing system through which stability was sought in multipower systems cannot function‐nor are the polarized conflicts likely to be controlled as a result of the two‐power effort at balancing power which occurred during the post‐war period. The factors affecting the stability of the present system, it is suggested here, can be better understood by examining analogous structures in which processes of power diffusion occur in the context of polarized conflict and not as a result of spurious comparisons which mistake the diffusion of power for the pluralization of conflict.