Do Terrorist Attacks Increase Closer to Elections?

The shadow of violence that elections cast remains poorly understood. A key obstacle impeding cross-national empirical analysis of electoral violence has been the varied nature of such violence. To address this challenge, I examine terrorist attacks as one particular form of electoral violence. By tracking the incidence of terrorist violence relative to election dates over time and across countries using an original dataset for the period from 2000–2005, I find strong support for the hypothesis that terrorist violence increases as we move closer to an election date. In fact, terrorist violence approximates a normal distribution centered on the election date.     

Fighting your friends? A study of intra-party violence in sub-Saharan Africa

ABSTRACT

This article focuses on a less visible and less studied type of political violence, namely violence that occurs within political parties. We use new, district-level data to compare the temporal and spatial dynamics of intra-party violence to those of general election violence across selected sub-Saharan African countries, including both democracies and autocracies, from 1998 to 2016. Relying on cross-national and sub-national analyses, we show that intra-party violence follows a unique pattern. First, unlike general election violence, intra-party violence peaks prior to election day as it is often sparked by individual parties’ candidate nomination processes. Second, low levels of competitiveness – typically theorized to reduce the risk of election violence – increase the risk of intra-party violence on the sub-national level. Thus, dominant party elections do not necessarily see less election-related violence than hotly contested elections. Rather, violence may be pushed from election day to intra-party competitions. If we neglect the study of violence within political parties, we thus risk underestimating the threat of election violence and misdiagnosing its causes.     

The Effects of Oil Production and Ethnic Representation on Violent Conflict in Nigeria: A Mixed-Methods Approach

A large qualitative literature on violent conflict in Nigeria has identified the importance of oil production and ethnicity as salient factors in understanding violence, especially in the oil-rich Niger Delta. This resonates with the broader literature on natural resources, ethnic exclusion, and conflict. This article advances existing research by providing the first highly disaggregated statistical analysis of oil, ethnicity, and violence for Nigerian Local Government Areas (LGAs). We test whether oil production in a weak state environment, and local groups’ access to governmental power, affect the level of violence in Nigeria. We employ unique disaggregated data on violent conflict events, proprietary data on oil production, and newly collected information on local ethnic groups’ access to the federal government for 774 LGAs. We find strong evidence that LGAs with oil infrastructure experience significantly more violence than others, while access to the federal government significantly reduces violence. We complement these findings with a qualitative investigation of violent conflicts in Nigeria.     

A New Typology of Electoral Violence: Insights from Indonesia

ABSTRACT

Existing literature on election violence has focused on how violence suppresses voter participation or shapes their preferences. Yet, there are other targets of election violence beyond voters who have so far received little attention: candidates and government agencies. By intimidating rival candidates into dropping out of the race, political hopefuls can literally reduce the number of competitors and increase their likelihood of winning. Likewise, aspiring candidates can target government agencies perceived to be responsible for holding elections to push for electorally beneficial decisions. In this paper, we introduce a new typology of electoral violence and utilize new data of election violence that occur around executive elections in Indonesia from 2005 through 2012. The types of violence we identified differ in these ways: a) Of all cases of electoral violence observed in this article, most incidents were targeted towards candidates and government bodies; b) candidates are generally targeted before elections, whereas voter-targeting incidents are spread out evenly before and after elections and government-targeted violence tends to occur afterwards; c) pre-election violence is concentrated in formerly separatist areas, but post-election violence is more common in districts with prior ethnocommunal violence. These distinctions stress the importance of examining when and why different strategies are adopted.     

Fighting for a name on the ballot: constituency-level analysis of nomination violence in Zambia

ABSTRACT

What factors increase the likelihood of nomination violence? Nomination violence can be an expression of both horizontal conflict, between local political elites, and vertical conflict, between national and local elites. We theorize about factors that may increase the risks of vertical and horizontal conflict and leverage a unique dataset of constituency-level nomination violence obtained from surveys with 464 domestic election observers active in the 2016 Zambian general election. Our statistical analyses show constituencies with an incumbent standing for re-election were more likely to experience nomination violence. Also, contrary to previous research on general election violence, we theorize and find that more rural constituencies had a higher propensity for nomination violence than urban constituencies. Our findings highlight the importance of intra-party power relations and the bargaining relationship between the centre and periphery.     

俄罗斯气候政策转型的驱动因素及国际影响分析

作为世界第三大温室气体排放国和世界最大能源出口国,俄罗斯在国际气候协议谈判中的地位极其重要。自从梅德韦杰夫总统上任以来,俄罗斯政府一改过去的冷漠态度,在国内和国际两个层面采取了一系列行动,在应对气候变化问题上表现出积极的政治姿态,被国际社会解读为俄罗斯的气候政策出现了惊人的转型。分析俄罗斯气候政策转型的各种驱动因素以及由此带来的国际影响,对研究未来国际气候体制的发展趋势具有重要意义。     

国际金融危机对广西“十二五”发展的影响及对策

2008年美国爆发次贷危机进而演变成为国际金融危机之后,全球经济受到了前所未有的严重冲击。虽然此后各国政府的救市措施缓解了金融危机的蔓延,但2010年爆发的欧洲债务危机再度表明世界经济复苏势头仍相当脆弱,在诸多不确定因素影响下仍可能出现＂双底＂复苏。因此,本文以国际金融危机的起源与演化为背景,分析国际金融危机对世界经济的影响以及对广西＂十二五＂经济发展的机遇和挑战,藉此提出广西应对国际金融危机的对策建议。     

The Crisis of Federalism and Electoral Strategies in Iraq

After uprooting Saddam Hussein from power, establishing democracy in Iraq has been declared among the most important objectives of the U.S.-led Coalition. However, the Coalition has encountered complex ethnic and religious relations and resentment of foreign intervention in Iraq. These reactions reflect decades, even centuries, of divisive and antagonistic policies whose impacts continue to complicate and threaten coexistence and civil peace. The immediate challenge of achieving stability and peace in Iraq, therefore, rests in the ability to foster a genuinely indigenous institutional political structure that can accommodate the different ethnic and sectarian aspirations. This article highlights the major potential shortcomings of the federal model established by the "Law of Administration for the State of Iraq for The Transitional Period." It also examines the shortcomings of the List Proportional Representation system as presented by the United Nations for Iraq's transition, and alternatively proposes national electoral reform strategies, with the implementation of an Alternative Vote system with Minority Provision in the election to the National Assembly, as a means to strengthen Iraq's national unity.     

Deciding to Intervene: An Analysis of International and Domestic Influences on United States Interventions in Intrastate Disputes

Although the United States has been the most prolific intervener in the international system since the end of World War II, there has been little consensus among scholars regarding the motivations of U.S. interventions in domestic political disputes abroad. In addition, scholars do not agree on the relative effects of international factors and domestic factors on intervention decisions by the U.S. Previous research on the motivations of U.S. interventions has occurred within at least two distinctive “streams” of literature: (1) studies of state interventions; and (2) studies of the use of military force by the U.S. Hypotheses regarding U.S. interventions in intrastate disputes are derived from the previous literature, and the hypotheses are tested using recently-compiled data on intrastate disputes and U.S. interventions in intrastate disputes occurring between 1945 and 2002. The results suggest a combination of international factors, including geographic proximity and ideological linkage, significantly influence the decisions of the U.S. to intervene in intrastate disputes. The results also suggest international factors are generally more important than domestic factors, and the effects of both domestic factors and international factors on U.S. intervention decisions may differ depending on the specific type of intervention and the time period.     

The US Election in 2024 and the Trend of the Ukraine Crisis

The crisis in Ukraine,which has dragged on for more than two years,and whether military aid to Ukraine should continue are major issues debated and fought over by the two parties in the United States prior to the 2024 election.Regarding whether to continue to aid Ukraine,various political forces in the United States have chosen sides in the election campaign,which can be roughly divided into the\"aid camp\"and the\"stop-aid camp\"according to their positions.     

Deciding to Keep Peace: An Analysis of International Influences on the Establishment of Third-Party Peacekeeping Missions

Since the end of World War II, and particularly since the end of the Cold War, there has been an expansion in the number of third-party peacekeeping missions established throughout the world. Most of the expansion in peacekeeping missions in the past decade or so has occurred in states experiencing intrastate or civil conflicts. The questions addressed in this study are under what conditions do third-party actors either decide to establish or decide not to establish peacekeeping missions in intrastate disputes, and specifically, what effect do international-level factors have on the likelihood that third-party peacekeeping personnel will be deployed in an intrastate dispute? The previous literature on third-party peacekeeping and interventions is used to derive a set of theoretical arguments and hypotheses regarding the establishment of peacekeeping missions by third-party actors (the United Nations, regional organizations, and ad hoc groups of states) during the post-World War II period. Specifically, I argue that several factors originating at the level of the international system influence the occurrence of third-party peacekeeping missions. The results of statistical analyses of the hypotheses largely support the notion that a set of international-level factors significantly influences the decisions of third-party actors to establish or not establish third-party peacekeeping missions, that international-level factors are more important than state-level factors, that these factors often have different effects on the likelihood of different types of third-party peacekeeping.     

美国干涉与老挝1955年选举

根据1954年日内瓦会议协议,老挝于1955年将进行全民选举。美国将老挝视为在印度支那地区防范共产党势力发展的重要阵地。为使老挝新政府成为一个亲西方的反共政府,投入了大量的人力和物力。美国在将老挝纳入其冷战轨道的同时,也破坏了老挝的独立与发展。     

日本参与东亚国际分工战略目标、形式的调整与影响

日本作为东亚地区唯一完成工业化现代化的国家 ,在东亚的经济发展与既有东亚国际分工体系中 ,扮演着十分重要的角色。但是 ,日本所倡导的东亚“雁行模式”国际分工 ,是一把“双刃剑” ,对日本来说已在长期发展中显露了双重效果 ,90年代以后 ,其负效果日益突出起来 ,这不仅对日本经济发展不利 ,更重要的是影响了东亚国际分工的发展 ,因此 ,调整参与东亚国际分工的形式与目标 ,建立双向开放的国际化经济 ,就成为日本参与东亚国际分工的新课题。     

国际社会与国际体系概念的辨析及评价

国际社会这个概念现在用得非常普遍 ,但是 ,国际体系这个概念并没有消失。国际社会是英国学派创立的 ,其中又分成强调规则和规范与共享文化价值两派。他们认为 ,国际体系是条件 ,是源泉 ,是最先存在的一种概念 ;国际社会则是国际关系发展的一个高级阶段 ,一种结果。中国学者在划分国际社会和国际体系界限时具有模糊性 ,实际上两者的发展关键是内涵指标不一样。学者布赞提出的国际社会是由异质性和同质性社会互动后产生的理论突破了西方文化统一全球的囿见。但是 ,国际社会作为一种分析框架有其先天性的弱点 ,过分相信和依赖规范、理性的大国间均势和统一的价值观的力量 ,无法重点性地构建和反映现实的力量互动关系。     

Views on the Current International Situation and Future International Order

The contemporary world situation is undergoing complex and deep changes and at a conjuncture of major transformation and readjustment. Generally speaking, the international situation is stable and the common wish of the people of the world is to seek peace, development and cooperation. The international balance of power is developing in the direction favourable to world peace, leaving little possibility of major scourge of war that may disequilibrate world configuration. But the old problems affecting world tranquillity are still pending with cropping up of new problems and new conflicts. The relations among major world powers are undergoing delicate changes. There is uncertainty in regional conflicts and hot spot issues in the Middle East and Africa. Traditional security threats are intertwined with non-traditional ones.     

High-tech Interest Groups in the United States and Its Political Influence

Representing the appeals of its industry,the high-tech interest group has recently become an emerging political force in the United States.With abundant financial resources and proficiency in political communication,the group rapidly grows to be a significant force in the American political sphere.It has started to affect the internal and foreign affairs of the U.S.and played a proactive role in the latest presidential election.Since the high-tech interest group has already become and will continue to be a big player in Sino-U.S.relations,China should carefully deal with its appeals and conflict of interests,and try to develop this group into a stabilizer between the two countries.     

"国际政治"与"国际关系"概念辨析

“国际关系”与“国际政治”是两个在内涵与外延上既有交叉又不完全重合的概念或学科 ,所以有时交换使用、通用 ;有时并列使用。在实际使用中由于人们理解上的含混和不一致 ,给研究、交流和学科建设等带来诸多不便。本文旨在对其进行必要的梳理和剖析。