Two Steps Forward,One Step Back: Merkel's CDU/CSU and the Politics of Welfare State Reform

Given its traditional support for conservative welfare state policies, the Christian Democratic Union's embrace of major reform measures in late 2003 seemingly marked a significant shift in the party's direction. The extent of its commitment to this new course became a key question in German politics during the election of 2005 and the early phase of Angela Merkel's Grand Coalition. This article examines the factors that contributed to her CDU's embrace of welfare state retrenchment in light of the literature on the politics of social policy reform. It argues that this shift in party policy was driven mainly by calculations of perceived partisan opportunity and organisational latitude. When the latter appeared to change, the consensus on major reform within the CDU crumbled, which in turn affected the party's 2005 campaign and its role in the Grand Coalition government.     

German Foreign Policy and the Libya Crisis

German foreign policy has come under scrutiny due to its decision to abstain in the vote on UN Security Council Resolution 1973 in March 2011 on the Libyan no fly zone. Germany's decision not to support France, the UK and the USA ensured that no common EU position emerged and NATO's response to the crisis proved difficult. German foreign policy was caught between enlarging its influence and role in crisis management and reserving the right to reject involvement in operations that do not fit with its national interest. Drawing on the work of Robert Gilpin, the article argues that Germany's decision to abstain on United Nations Security Council Resolution 1973 can be explained by understanding the cost/benefit calculations of the German government, pressured by the protracted Eurozone crisis.     

Regulating for media pluralism and the pitfalls of standortpolitik: the reregulation of German broadcasting ownership rules

Germany has witnessed a veritable television boom over the last ten years. However, the plethora of new private channels masks an underlying duopoly, a concentration of media power that has not been prevented by an elaborate system of regulation. This article maps these developments, particularly the Lander competition for investment, the structural power of the media industry, and the emergence of a media policy ‘Grand Coalition’ between SPD North Rhine‐Westphalia and CSU Bavaria. It assesses the Federal Constitutional Court's role and highlights the public broadcasters’ crucial function to act as a pluralistic counterbalance in the dual public/private broadcasting system.     

European Banking Union to the Rescue? How Supranational Institutions Influenced Crisis Management in Italy

ABSTRACT

This article examines the management of the recent banking crisis in Italy. In particular, we investigate the changing coalitional dynamics among Italian banks with a view to identifying the conditions under which banks are more likely to share the costs of crisis management. We argue that banks’ preferences are significantly shaped by the institutional context within which they operate. In particular, the establishment of Banking Union in the European Union (EU) significantly weakened the traditional coalitional dynamics among Italian banks by injecting uncertainty about the distributional effects of crisis management policy solutions.     

The CFA Franc Zone: a political re-evaluation twenty years after the advent of the Euro

ABSTRACT

Although the CFA monetary union is not an ‘optimal’ currency area as such, it has allowed member countries to benefit from the convertibility guaranteed by the French Treasury and from enhanced policy credibility in achieving low inflation rates.

Both benefits may be under threat. The convertibility is under threat due to the harder budgetary commitments imposed on France by its membership of the Eurozone and the dwindling political interest in the CFA Franc Zone shown in France.

The policy credibility is becoming costlier as evidenced by output-inflation trade-offs, which, although still more favourable than in comparable sub-Saharan African countries, have been declining since the 1994 devaluation period.     

Courting the Voters? Policy Implications of Party Competition for the Reform Output of the Second Merkel Government

Understanding party competition as a ‘political market’, we explore its characteristics during the second Merkel government, 2009–13. On the demand side, analysing opinion polls and the Länder election results, we find that the outcome of the next Bundestag election was uncertain. Thus, electoral competition was likely to be intense. On the supply side, opposition parties presented credible alternatives to government policies with regard to social as well as environmental policy. Regarding the Euro crisis, however, a consensus across the established parties existed. Studying three of the most salient policy issues, we identify party competition as a crucial determinant of decision-making. While the debate on minimum wages was substantially shaped by party competition, resulting in ‘anticipatory obedience’, nuclear energy only became affected by electoral considerations after the ‘Fukushima shock’ which resulted in a major policy shift. Regarding the response to the Euro crisis, however, party competition was essentially suspended.     

Political Indigestion: Germany Confronts Genetically Modified Foods

Why has German policy toward agricultural biotechnology been notably unsupportive, compared to other countries with large biotechnology industries, despite its economic significance and the senior governing party's initial support across both the SPD–Green and Grand Coalition governments? I argue that German policy is the result of the interlocking dynamics in the economic and political arenas. In both realms, the GMO issue led to ‘business conflict’ by dividing economic sectors into pro-GMO and anti-GMO blocs. This enhanced the anti-GMO movement's ‘opportunity structures’ in both the economic and the political arena. It also affected the relative strength of contending political coalitions on both sides of the GMO issue, which in turn affected policy outcomes. Finally, I argue that the partisan composition of Germany's coalition governments also contributed to the outcome.     

Migration Crisis,Organised Crime and Domestic Politics in Italy: Unfolding the Interplay

ABSTRACT

Focusing on Italy in the years of the ‘migration crisis’ between 2013 and 2017, this article explores how migration, crime groups and the domestic politics of migration control became entangled in times of crisis. Departing from previous theoretical discussions, it builds a framework that combines crime groups’ actions with domestic political processes in host countries and explores how the crime-migration nexus shaped – and was shaped by – Italian migration policymaking. The article contends that in the context of crisis the nexus took on new forms and that Italian migration politics and policies served to foster rather than counter the phenomenon, in a continuous interplay between criminal practices and policy choices.     

Contending paradigms of Japan’s international role: Elite views of the Persian Gluf crisis

Japan’s dramatic ascent to the status of economic superpower raises significant questions about how it will wield the broader global influence ordinarily conferred by wealth. Its emergence as an economic leader coincides with the demise of the cold war. Taken together, these trends alter the basis of the long-standing U.S.-Japan relationship. While the security partnership is likely to continue as a force for regional stability in the post-cold war environment, it is simply natural that a prosperous, self-confident Japan will begin to assert an independent voice in international affairs. In this study the author examines Japan’s recent debate over its policy in the Persian Gulf crisis. Particular attention is given to five competing schools of thought that shaped the national debate among Japanese opinion leaders. Although Japan’s response to the Gulf crisis was marked by a series of false starts and confusion, it is likely that a new foreign policy paradigm will eventually emerge from the ongoing debate among the contending schools of thought identified by the author.     

欧债危机:治理困境和应对举措

欧洲主权债务危机揭示了欧元区重债国家公共财政的不可持续,同时也将欧元区治理结构的弊端暴露无遗。欧盟受其利益多元和政治体制复杂性以及法律框架的制约,难以独立做出迅速和有效的危机应对举措。因此,债务危机的解决方式不可能立竿见影,这一软肋充分暴露在市场面前,使危机短期内可能不断反复。欧盟国家要走出债务危机,短期内需建立防火墙,控制危机大蔓延,同时大力削减公共财政赤字,尽快恢复市场信心;中期则需改进欧元区的治理结构,加强财政协调和监督;若要最终走出危机,则需提高经济竞争力,促进经济增长,促使公共财政走入良性循环。     

Cooperating Estonians and “exiting” Lithuanians: trust in times of crisis

This article argues that substantial differences in political legitimacy can help explain why Estonia dealt with the recent economic crisis more successfully than Lithuania. In 2009, when the crisis hit hardest, Lithuania saw its budget deficit expand substantially, while Estonia managed to keep the deficit under 3% of GDP and consequently was invited to join the Eurozone, to which it acceded in 2011. The experience of these countries presents an interesting puzzle, as the divergent fiscal performance cannot be attributed to purely economic factors. Both countries have a similar economic structure, and both were similarly affected by the crisis. Furthermore, both pursued similar expenditure and tax policies during the crisis. Based on quantitative and qualitative evidence, it is argued that higher tax compliance and subsequently higher tax revenues can explain the difference. In turn, this compliance gap can be attributed to different levels of trust in political institutions in Estonia and Lithuania.     

Teachers’ and bank workers’ responses to Zimbabwe's crisis: uneven effects,different strategies

While other studies have examined worker experiences in the informal sector during the crisis, this study is the first to focus on the formal sector, comparing the experiences of teachers and banking sector workers. The study shows that the Zimbabwean crisis (2000–2008) had uneven effects which elicited differential responses from workers. During the peak of the crisis in 2008, the teaching sector almost collapsed as most of the primary and secondary school teachers responded to hyper-inflation that had eroded their incomes by joining the diaspora or Zimbabwe's burgeoning speculative informal economy. The establishment of the Government of National Unity (GNU) saw the dollarisation of the Zimbabwean economy and the shelving of the Zimbabwean dollar in April 2009. These changes saw the teaching sector showing signs of revival, as some of the teachers who had left the profession re-joined the sector. This was largely because the dollarisation of the Zimbabwean economy ‘killed off’ the speculative activities that were sustaining a large proportion of the teachers in the informal economy during the crisis. In stark contrast, the banking sector thrived during the peak of the crisis, as most banks became key players in highly speculative activities such as Zimbabwe's bullish stock exchange and real estate. The profits realised in the banking sector trickled down to its workers who became the best remunerated amongst all the sectors in Zimbabwe. In a twist of irony, the banking sector was adversely affected by the dollarisation of the economy, as the speculative activities that were reaping huge rewards for the banks were wiped out overnight by the adoption of currencies more stable than the precarious Zimbabwean dollar. This spelt disaster for the banking fraternity. Most banks in the first few months of dollarisation struggled to pay their workers in hard currency; many were forced to downsize their operations and lay-off some employees.     

The wall in the ballot box: The Berlin election of 1995

The Berlin election of October 1995 produced very different results in the eastern and western halves of the city, and although the end result was a continuation of the Grand Coalition, it was the PDS and Bündnis 90/Die Grünen who stole the limelight once the votes were counted. This article attempts to account for the performance of the parties in each half of the city and considers the political consequences for them. It concludes by considering what the election can tell us about the public mood in Berlin and about political trends in the Federal Republic in general. What emerges is a ‘wall in the ballot box’, a practical manifestation of die Mauer im Kopf which clearly continues to exist five years after the first all‐German election.     

‘Responsibility for Europe’: the EU policy of the German Social Democrats since unification

The following article analyses the European Union (EU) policy of the German Social Democrats (SPD) since German unity. Starting from the cross-party European consensus in the early 1990s SPD policy has altered significantly in response to major changes in the ‘policy context’ such as the party's rise from opposition to government, German unification and increasing European integration. Policy change in the SPD has been defined by two dynamics: greater ‘pragmatism’ among a new generation of party leaders that has allowed a ‘freer’ interpretation of German interests; and a gradual prioritisation of EU policy in the party elite that has seen it integrated into a multi-level programme for political governance. The article examines how these changes manifested themselves in SPD policy, focusing on European Economic and Monetary Union and the debate on ‘the future of Europe’.     

National Role Conceptions,Domestic Constraints and the New ‘Normalcy’ in German Foreign Policy: the Eurozone Crisis,Libya and Beyond

German foreign policy can fruitfully be analysed through the lens of a modified two-level framework which identifies three interdependent drivers behind government decision making: the expectations of Germany's international partners, domestic constraints and the national role conceptions of decision-makers. In recent years, the configuration of these three drivers has witnessed a two-fold change. First, there has been a nascent shift towards the role conception of Germany as a ‘normal ally’. Second, the domestic context of German foreign policy has become more politicised and contentious. In consequence, Germany's current foreign policy tends to attach relatively less weight to the expectations of its allies, to be more driven by domestic politics – and to be altogether less predictable. The widely criticised approaches of the Merkel government to the Eurozone crisis and to the NATO mission in Libya, in turn, accord to this pattern and stand for the new ‘normalcy’ in German foreign policy.     

Between Continuity and Change: Ostpolitik and the Constructivist Approach Revisited

To social constructivists, West German Ostpolitik, as implemented under the social-liberal government of Chancellor Willy Brandt in the early 1970s, is an excellent example of norms and identities influencing foreign policy. According to constructivists, Ostpolitik involves a continuous social process in which decision-makers are increasingly guided by norms such as ‘peace’, ‘reconciliation’ and ‘Europeanness’. However, constructivist analyses of Ostpolitik remain too abstract to answer the question why West German reunification policy was first put on an international sidetrack, before it subsequently took the initiative in international détente and caused national and international political commotion. Only when the constructivist emphasis on the influence of norms is linked to more traditional decision-making models of bureaucratic and government politics, and their focus on political interests, does it become clear that the answer lies in the dynamics of the continuous political struggle between Christian Democrats (CDU/CSU) and Social Democrats (SPD).     

The Economics and Politics of the Euro Crisis

This article addresses puzzles raised by the Euro crisis: why was EMU established with limited institutional capacities, where do the roots of the crisis lie, how can the response to the crisis be explained, and what are its implications for European integration? It explores how prevailing economic doctrines conditioned the institutional shape of the single currency and locates the roots of the crisis in an institutional asymmetry grounded in national varieties of capitalism, which saw political economies organised to operate export-led growth models joined to others accustomed to demand-led growth. The response to the crisis is reviewed and explained in terms of limitations in European institutions, divergent economic doctrines and the boundaries of European solidarity. Proposed solutions to the crisis based on deflation or reflation are assessed from a varieties of capitalism perspective and the implications for European integration reviewed.     

From the ruble zone to the euro zone: the political economy of Estonian macroeconomic policy

This article analyzes Estonian macroeconomic policy since the country regained independence in 1991. Estonia was the first post-communist country to introduce a currency board in 1992, and consecutive governments have systematically prioritized macroeconomic stability and fiscal prudence. Estonia implemented an internal devaluation in 2008–2009, which enabled it to become the first post-Soviet republic to adopt the euro in 2011. This article explores the origins of the currency board and shows how institutions, interests, and ideas have contributed to Estonian exceptionalism in macroeconomic policy and to euro adoption. It demonstrates that the Estonian experience can shed light on the political prerequisites of internal devaluations, which may be of great relevance both to current and future Central and Eastern European euro area members.     

Policy Failure in the Triangle of Growth: Labour Market,Human Capital,and Innovation in Spain and Italy

This article focuses on the Italian and Spanish models of growth and analyses labour market, human capital and innovation policy reforms since the mid 1990s. The comparison with France and Germany shows the constraints that have hindered the rise of institutional complementarities and the competitiveness of the two Mediterranean countries already before the introd uction of the euro and the outbreak of the 2008 crisis. The analysis highlights both similarities and structural differences between Italy and Spain and demonstrates the long-term institutional conditions that explain why the economic breakdown has had such a deep impact on the two countries.     

NATO: The United States, Transformation and the War in Afghanistan

During the Bush years, NATO exhibited in stark form two trends which have long characterised its development: periodic exposure to crisis and division, and a subordination to American leadership. Despite signs of American indifference towards the alliance, talk of the Bush administration levering a break with NATO was always overstated, particularly so during its second term of office. Views of NATO after 2004 were shaped by Afghanistan giving rise, in fact, to a return to the alliance on America's part. NATO remains important to Bush's successor but on terms which are as demanding as those of his predecessors. NATO, in other words, is valued in so far as it accords with current US foreign policy priorities. The safest assumption in this regard is that Obama will continue to favour the trend towards a global NATO pursued by the Bush administration. However, retreat (or defeat) in Afghanistan could hasten a contrary trend towards a consolidating NATO with a renewed concentration on the wider Europe.