特朗普政府“去气候化”行动背景下欧盟的气候政策分析

特朗普当政以来采取了一系列"去气候化"行动,宣布退出《巴黎协定》,废除《清洁电力计划》,给全球气候治理带来了很大的负面影响。特朗普政府的做法引起了国际社会的广泛批评和不满。作为长期积极推动全球气候治理并发挥"领导"作用的欧盟进行了坚决回应,强调《巴黎协定》不容重新谈判。欧盟委员会和欧盟理事会专门就此发表声明,表示欧盟会继续全面落实其承诺并发挥领导作用,继续实施其减排措施以及在金融、能源、交通与工业等领域采取的气候政策。欧盟在美国退约背景下高调积极推动全球气候治理,其主要的战略考量仍然是立足于全球低碳转型潮流,试图确保欧盟在低碳经济时代的战略优势,主导和塑造全球气候治理的巴黎进程,并积极回应欧洲民众对气候变化问题的高度关切,在欧洲复杂的内外安全形势下继续推动欧洲一体化向前发展。特朗普政府的行动无疑给全球气候治理带来了消极影响,但从欧盟的坚决回应及其行动来看,全球气候治理和低碳转型的趋势不会逆转。     

欧洲对外行动署的法律定位与机构设计

欧洲对外行动署(EEAS)是《里斯本条约》在对外关系领域中的重要机构创新之一。本文从欧盟法的角度对欧洲对外行动署进行认知和解读,讨论不同利益相关方在欧盟外交行动一体化中所处的立场和角色,体现这种新的一体化的复杂性和难度。文章首先探究欧洲对外行动署的诞生过程,从中反映欧盟机构与成员国对该机构设置的不同立场和观点;其次,分析欧洲对外行动署"功能自治"特征,比较它与欧盟其他机构的区别,探讨它在欧盟机构平衡中所处的位置;再次,文章讨论欧洲对外行动署的权力范围,分析它在哪些领域发挥作用。目前,EEAS的法律定位并不十分清楚,其架构具有过渡性,要达成欧盟对外关系领域中的一致性目标,还需要在成员国意愿的支持下做进一步的机构创新。     

全球气候治理中的中国与欧盟:理念、行动、分歧与合作

本文通过比较中国和欧盟在全球气候治理中的理念和行动,分析双方之间存在的分歧以及合作前景。笔者认为,自《京都议定书》生效以来,中欧的全球气候治理理念都处于变化中。中国从之前被动地接受"治理",到积极地参与国际机制,甚至主动提出治理方案,如南南合作。而中国近期提出的"自主国家贡献"目标更是对促成2015年的巴黎气候谈判释放出积极的信号。欧盟利用话语权和气候外交的优势,在引领气候治理向着自己意愿方向发展的同时,逐渐成为分化发展中国家阵菅的"推手"。中欧尽管在"共同但有区别的责任"原则上存在着严重分歧,但双方的合作空间却在不断扩大。这是因为中国不断提高自身参与气候治理的合作意愿和合作能力,而欧盟也愿意以更温和的态度与包括中国在内的新兴大国在全球气候治理上展开合作。     

冷战后欧盟的冲突干预:以亚洲为例

冷战后,欧盟在亚洲地区进行的冲突干预行动具有以下特征:注重多边合作、谋求干预行动合法性与效果的最大化;多采用以某个成员国为主的"主导国模式",小国主导比例较高;强调民事领域的干预与战后重建,发展出"任务主导国模式"和"格鲁吉亚模式";超越传统的军事干预模式,以"军事危机管理"定位军事干预;干预行动在共同安全与防务政策框架下实施,并制定相应的政策文件和实施细则。欧盟干预行动的主要不足包括:各国立场不同影响了干预行动的决策和实施;欧盟和成员国的民事干预相关机构彼此协调不足,影响了行动效率,参与民事干预行动的人员不足,影响了行动效果。上述特征也多存在于欧洲对非洲的干预行动中。     

中欧环境合作的民意基础——欧盟环境形象在中国的传播与公众认知分析

一直以来,欧盟在保护环境上起着全球领先者的作用,考虑到中欧双方在环境问题上的合作对全球抑制环境恶化和改善气候变化的重要性,了解欧盟环境和能源方面的政策和行动在中国的传播,以及中国人眼中欧盟作为环境行动者的形象,对中欧双方学界和政界进一步探讨双边合作的潜力和挑战具有重要意义。本文从讨论欧盟的各种对外身份和形象入手,论述欧盟在环境、气候和能源问题上作为全球领先者的贡献以及中欧在保护环境和气候变化上的合作,然后考察欧盟环境行动者形象在中国的传播,分析中国市民、政府官员、商界精英、学者以及媒体和非政府组织工作者对欧盟这一形象的认同和感知,并探讨其对中欧未来环境保护、气候变化等相关问题合作的启示。     

欧盟对外行动署的制度建设及运行评估

欧盟对外行动署是《里斯本条约》生效后欧盟建立的一个全新专职外交机构。里约对高级代表的职责与地位所做出的相关规定,明示或默示地确立了对外行动署组建的一些基本原则。对外行动署由中央总部和驻外使团组成的架构,在一定程度上与主权国家的专职外交部门类似。本文分析了对外行动署与欧盟各有关机构和成员国的相互关系。结合对外行动署组建近两年来的外交实践,本文认为,对外行动署的建立一定程度上加强了欧盟外交的延续性、一致性和有效性,但由于这一制度变革并不是革命性的,其成效的发挥有待观察。对外行动署的组建对中欧关系的发展起到了一定的积极作用,但也需关注多方面的制约因素。     

欧盟气候外交的战略困境及政策转型

自上世纪90年代起,欧盟通过雄心勃勃的气候外交战略获得了国际气候谈判领导者的地位。以2009年哥本哈根大会为起点,以国际航空碳税政策的失败为标志,欧盟的气候外交战略陷入了结构性与工具性的双重困境。欧盟外交角色定位不明且行动效率低下、气候外交模式偏重技术官僚主导、经济基础存在结构性制约、气候外交与总体外交战略存在逻辑对冲是导致这一困境的主要因素。为巩固既有利益及重获气候谈判领导权,欧盟于2010年开始制定并实施了若干转型政策。总体来看,转型政策呈现出重视中期战略、注重能源安全、维护伙伴关系以及强调规制主义等特征。这些转型政策将在一定程度上弱化气候外交困境的影响,使欧盟更加接近其气候外交的战略目标。     

欧盟经济外交的特点及中国的应对策略

多层治理结构下的欧盟对外决策主体具有多层性和多元性特点。为了规范联盟治理体系和增强联盟对外行动能力,欧盟通过不间断的制度变革来实现联盟的"善治",这种"制度依赖"进而外溢为欧盟经济外交的规制性特征。在制度规范下,欧盟独特的集体决策模式使欧盟成为"易守难攻"的"欧洲堡垒"。受欧盟制度结构和决策机制影响的欧盟经济外交特点,逐渐成为影响中欧经济外交的内生变量。本文选取中欧纺织品争端、市场经济地位问题和中欧光伏争端作为案例,分析了欧盟独特的制度结构和决策机制如何影响欧盟经济外交行为;在此基础上,对中国的应对策略提出了相关建议。     

欧盟气候新政及其对欧洲一体化的推动

在应对气候变化挑战方面,欧盟的政策进程一直领先世界。欧盟也是全球气候政策的动议者和领导者。欧盟最新的气候政策不仅出于解决经济增长、就业及能源供应等社会经济问题的需要,而且旨在建构"欧洲认同",推动欧洲一体化深入发展,提高欧盟的国际竞争力和国际政治影响力。本文具体阐述和分析了欧盟气候新政措施的特点,提出欧盟气候新政将有助于推动欧洲一体化的发展,最后指出了欧盟气候政策在实践中存在的不确定因素和问题。     

当代西方学术界对欧盟国际气候谈判立场的研究综述

鉴于欧盟在国际气候谈判及全球气候治理中的重要影响和"领导"作用,对欧盟气候变化政策及其国际气候谈判立场的研究受到西方学术界的广泛关注。本文主要从两个方面对当代西方学术界关于欧盟国际气候谈判立场及相关研究进行综合概括和评述:首先,从总体上介绍当代西方学术界对影响一个国家(或国家集团)国际气候谈判立场的理论研究;其次,关于欧盟与成员国及其他欧洲国家国际气候谈判立场的研究。通过上述分析,本文总结了六类分析欧盟国际气候谈判立场的理论视角:一是环境外交政策分析法;二是经济利益决定论;三是国内政治分析法;四是双层博弈分析法;五是制度主义分析法;六是观念建构视角。     

German expellee organisations in the enlarged EU

This article examines German expellees (Vertriebene) as an interest group in domestic and enlarged European Union contexts. While their background and motivations may be unique, they have similarities to other non-party actors aiming to influence political and/or legal processes. German governments have made rhetorical and financial expressions of support but privileged foreign policy considerations over core expellee demands and sought to contain them as an internal issue. EU enlargement and accession by CEE states to its legal bases has been interpreted as opening new possibilities. A ‘Europeanising’ of ‘justice’ may have unintended implications for relations among European states and peoples.     

Why the EU Still Matters in Turkish Domestic Politics: Insights from Recent Reforms in Migration Policy

Abstract

In view of Turkey’s increasing distance from the European Union (EU), the continued partial alignment with EU standards is often attributed either to domestic factors, or to diffusion processes induced by external actors other than the EU. However, based on interviews with officials from Turkey and the European Commission on recent reforms in migration policy, this article argues that two factors are responsible for continued EU influence on policy processes. First, the EU is still able to set incentives for compliance. Second, the instrument for pre-accession assistance has an impact that goes beyond that of a mere facilitator of domestically defined interests.     

‘Responsibility for Europe’: the EU policy of the German Social Democrats since unification

The following article analyses the European Union (EU) policy of the German Social Democrats (SPD) since German unity. Starting from the cross-party European consensus in the early 1990s SPD policy has altered significantly in response to major changes in the ‘policy context’ such as the party's rise from opposition to government, German unification and increasing European integration. Policy change in the SPD has been defined by two dynamics: greater ‘pragmatism’ among a new generation of party leaders that has allowed a ‘freer’ interpretation of German interests; and a gradual prioritisation of EU policy in the party elite that has seen it integrated into a multi-level programme for political governance. The article examines how these changes manifested themselves in SPD policy, focusing on European Economic and Monetary Union and the debate on ‘the future of Europe’.     

Between indifference and hesitation: France and EU enlargement towards the Balkans

Abstract

France’s hesitant stance on EU enlargement towards the Balkans is illustrative of a broader ambivalence among both French elites and citizens towards the European project. Despite principled support for the Balkans’ EU membership, achieving this step is no strategic priority for France. The official approach emphasizes strict conditionality and a rigorous monitoring of reform progress in aspirant countries. A hostile public opinion and superficial media coverage further strengthen the country’s reluctance to admit new, possibly unprepared candidates into the Union. Analysing the historical evolution of the French position on EU enlargement as well as its current political, institutional and societal expressions, this article construes France’s disinvestment from the Balkans’ EU perspective as the result of failed expectations and a growing disillusionment with the EU’s international role and its political future more broadly.     

Modernisation or Disorientation? Policy Change in Merkel's CDU

After decades of relative continuity, the Christian Democratic Union began making major modifications in its basic policy orientations after 1998. These waves of modernisation largely vindicate traditional explanations of party change, as they resulted from a combination of external shocks (electoral decline); leadership transition (Angela Merkel's consolidation of power); and internal factional change (weakening of the CDU's traditional conservative and social wings, along with the growing influence of its pro-market and culturally liberal elements). Yet the nature of Merkel's leadership and absence of a dominant internal coalition in the CDU often gave this policy change an ad hoc, inconsistent character.     

Myths of Commonwealth Betrayal: UK–Africa Trade Before and After Brexit

Abstract

This article critically interrogates claims that a British exit from the European Union (EU) (Brexit) will create opportunities for the UK to escape the EU’s apparent protectionism and cumbersome internal politics in order to pursue a more liberal and globalist trade agenda based on the Commonwealth. Taking a historical view of UK and EU trade relations with the Commonwealth in Africa, the author highlights the way in which the incorporation of the majority of Commonwealth states into the EU’s preferential trading relationships has reconfigured ties between the UK and its former colonies over time. Further, the author suggests that the EU’s recent attempts to realise a vision for an ambitious set of free trade agreements in Africa—the Economic Partnership Agreements—was disrupted not by EU protectionism or internal politics but rather by African resistance to the EU’s liberal agenda for reciprocal tariff liberalisation and regulatory harmonisation. The UK therefore faces a complex challenge if it is to disentangle its trade relations with Africa from those of the EU and to forge its own set of ambitious free trade agreements with African Commonwealth partners.     

Structural weaknesses and the role of the dominant political party: democratic backsliding in Croatia since EU accession

ABSTRACT

Croatia is regarded as a success story of the EU’s enlargement policy. However, this narrative conflicts with the situation on the ground and with expert surveys, which depict incremental, yet persistent democratic backsliding in recent years. A shift towards illiberal practices, primarily focused on the liberal part of the liberal-democratic nexus, is taking place. This research aims to explore the prevalence and causes for the re-emergence of illiberal practices in Croatia by employing an interpretive method to evidence gathered from media articles and research reports published 2013–2019. The use of illiberal policies by the governing Croatian Democratic Union (HDZ) in three areas of the political system – the capture of independent agencies, control of the judiciary, and the weakening of independent media – is found to be the driver of democratic backsliding. Causes are found in structural reasons linked to the dominant party. Without either internal power-sharing constraints or external EU conditionality pressure, the HDZ has been able to take advantage of structural weaknesses of the system it built and shaped during the 1990s.     

Some Talk,No Action (Yet): Interdependence,Domestic Interests and Hierarchical EU Governance in Climate Policy

This article analyses why Switzerland has so far remained outside the European Union's emissions trading system (EU ETS), the centerpiece of the EU's efforts to combat climate change. In doing so, it contributes three insights to the literature on the EU's external governance. First, it shows that interdependence is of limited explanatory power in predicting EU–Swiss interactions. Secondly, it identifies domestic interests in the non‐member state, Switzerland, as the key factor in explaining the EU's external governance structures concerning emissions trading. Thirdly, it highlights the EU's limited flexibility in dealing with third countries in areas where its internal governance mode is hierarchical. The article presents a hypothesis about the future development of emissions trading in Switzerland and discusses implications for both the external governance literature and the development of global carbon markets.     

The Limits of Normative Power Europe in Asia: The Case of Human Rights in China

In recent years an increasing number of works on EU international actorness have begun to focus on notions of “normative, value-driven external policy”. However, the majority of these works tend to uncritically analyse EU foreign policy without considering its internal complexity and the existing national, supranational and intergovernmental dynamics. This paper first sheds light on these issues by proposing an original theoretical and analytical framework to study European, rather than merely EU, normative foreign policy. Secondly, this paper attempts to empirically apply such a framework in the specific case of European human rights promotion in China. What emerges is that in the case of China, and Asia more broadly, Europe appears more as a normative trap, where the interaction of EU institutions and member states originate policies not in line with the EU human rights normative basis.     

全球环境治理“领导者”的蜕变:加拿大的案例

加拿大长期以来曾是西方发达国家中积极领导全球环境治理的典范,一度也是全球气候治理的积极参与者,但是近年来却俨然蜕变为气候谈判中的"拖后腿者"。发生这种转变的原因究竟是什么?本文通过国际和国内、政治与经济多个层面的分析发现,除了美国因素以外,加拿大国内的经济形势变化和政治体制是导致其战略变化的主要原因。20世纪90年代以来,油砂大规模开发和原油出口(特别是对美国的市场依赖),导致加拿大在气候变化问题上处于比较劣势;而相关利益集团的游说,正好与加拿大松散的联邦制等制度因素相结合,导致了加拿大气候政策的转向。从这个层面上看,经济利益的变化和政治决策制度特征共同成为决定国家气候或环境战略的主要因素。在某种程度上,这一案例也反驳了发达民主国家因其制度因素必然成为全球环境保护积极支持者的命题。