哈萨克斯坦如何应对“荷兰病”

根据Corden和Neary提出的"荷兰病"理论模型及国内外相关研究,文章分别从世界石油价格波动是否直接影响哈萨克斯坦货币的汇率、外商直接投资是否更倾向于能源部门、能源行业是否存在工资上涨效应三个方面,对制造业等非能源型行业是否存在"去工业化"现象进行研究,发现哈萨克斯坦已经存在"荷兰病"的征兆。为此,对目前哈国政府所采取的建立哈国国民基金、促进经济结构转型等应对"荷兰病"的政策措施进行了分析。     

俄罗斯经济的转折点与“俄罗斯病”

俄罗斯经济一度在油价的暴涨中实现了高增长,但在2008年油价暴跌之后,俄面临着经济增长的转折点。虽说俄罗斯的经济转型伴随着一系列的市场经济结构改革,但还是对于油价变动反应过度。俄受油价变动摆布的资源依赖型经济可统称为"俄罗斯病"。这其实是一种"石油诅咒"综合症,但它不同于"荷兰病"。虽然俄罗斯历经石油价格高涨→实际汇率升值→进口扩大的发展路径,却没有出现GDP增长递减和制造业增长低迷的现象。因为俄国内市场大于荷兰,而且制造业发展缓慢。我们不能期待出现治愈"俄罗斯病"的特效药和特需,而有效利用资源利益来推动其经济发展是俄罗斯的现实选择。俄罗斯以"推翻世界史"的速度实现了开放的市场经济,但是,在重构文化背景和制造业基础之后再来发展经济恐怕还需时日。     

俄罗斯区域经济增长敛散性实证研究

区域经济的收敛性问题一直是经济学家们关注的焦点.新古典增长理论认为若技术外生一致,资本边际报酬递减会使经济欠发达地区以更快的增长速度发展,进而赶超发达地区,实现经济增长的趋同.本文试图通过对俄罗斯区域经济增长收敛性的实证检验,研究俄罗斯当代经济发展中是否存在经济收敛的现象,并提出相应的对策依据.     

俄罗斯在“重新评价”斯大林吗?——兼谈《俄罗斯现代史(1945—2006)·教师参考书》对斯大林的评价

本文在严格界定"重评"这个概念的前提下,根据近年的最新情况,对有关俄罗斯是否存在"重评"斯大林问题进行综合考察。文章分析了近年牵动斯大林评价变化的三个层面,考察了近年俄罗斯主要政治派别对斯大林评价变化的幅度,特别具体分析了可代表当前俄罗斯主导政治派别(民族爱国派)观点的著作,得出结论认为,俄罗斯不存在"重新评价"斯大林的问题。所谓"重评"云云,只不过是部分政治派别和社会阶层从大国主义、强国主义情结出发,对斯大林感情色彩的某种变化,对斯大林臧否向度的局部调整,并不是基本评价的变化和评价实质的变动,因此称不上是"重评"斯大林。     

俄罗斯“长久之国”的构建——从“大书奖”看国家叙事

俄罗斯国家文学奖"大书奖"作为21世纪俄罗斯文坛的重要奖项,不仅是文学创作的风向标,还是反映国家意志的文化现象。政治话语在文学领域得到的回应,往往关系国家发展的内生性方面。苏尔科夫在《长久的普京之国》一文中提出了"长久之国"的概念,人民与领袖的相互信任、聚合统一是这一概念的重要支点。历史小说和传记等以历史为题材的作品是"大书奖"关注的重要方面。获奖作品与奖项批评活动中的国家叙事构建,意在表明三个问题:俄罗斯人民是超越时代局限的先进"深层人民";历史证明,俄罗斯的"领袖人物"是值得信任的;"长久之国"的构建可以通过"深层人民"对"领袖人物"的信任实现。从文化研究的视角来看,俄罗斯国家历史的深厚程度和民族性渊源,使得21世纪俄罗斯具有可预见的长久性。然而,俄罗斯国家叙事一定程度上遮盖了现实中存在的民众主体性不足的情况,从长远来看,仍是不可忽视的不利于"长久之国"构建的因素。     

俄罗斯卢布汇率安排的经济效应分析

俄罗斯转型时期的宏观经济波动与汇率制度安排之间存在着密切的关系.本文在评述新兴市场经济国家汇率制度选择困境和概述俄罗斯汇率制度演变的基础上,从汇率与通货膨胀、汇率与对外贸易、汇率与资本流入、汇率与外债规模结构变动等方面分析了汇率制度安排及汇率变动的宏观经济效应,并简要总结了俄罗斯的实践对中国的启示.     

原苏联地区俄罗斯人问题研究综述

俄罗斯人问题是原苏联国家最重要的民族问题,因其矛盾的尖锐性、在原苏联国家存在的广泛性以及对地区政治影响的严重性而倍受学界关注.本文明确俄罗斯人问题的涵义,基本概念和国内外研究现状三个方面综述俄罗斯人问题研究,并分别对俄罗斯学者、西方学者和中国学者的研究给予扼要评价.     

俄罗斯油气资源依附型经济论析

尽管1999年后俄罗斯的经济增长是内需而非投资主导的,但俄仍然是出口矿产资源、进口机器等工业制成品和食品的单一经济模式的发展中国家,其经济增长受出口大宗商品的国际市场价格和汇率变化的影响较大。无论从名义GDP还是从实际GDP来看,油气产业对俄罗斯经济增长的贡献率都很大。俄罗斯制造业的竞争力依然很低。因此,俄罗斯经济是一种油气资源依附型经济。俄罗斯政府对国内市场的天然气价格实施管制,在一定程度上减轻了"荷兰病"的进一步发展。来自油气产业的税收大幅增加使俄财政收入由赤字转为盈余。俄政府为此设立了稳定基金,在抑制通货膨胀的同时偿还了外债。从2008年起,俄在引入油气收支或油气外收支等概念基础上开始实施新的预算编制和执行制度。稳定基金因此转化为储备基金和下一代基金。俄经济的长远发展取决于如何减轻"荷兰病"的影响以及通货膨胀的压力。     

俄罗斯食物安全问题探析

俄罗斯是否存在食物安全问题有诸多观点。本文从俄罗斯国内的农业生产、俄罗斯居民的食品消费与俄罗斯农产食品的进出口结构三个视角对此作出评估。如果单纯从数据上,俄罗斯无论是从农产食品的产量上,还是从消费的水平上,都不存在食物安全问题。俄各界夸大俄的食物安全问题目的是为了寻求国家的关注和支持。西方不中立的评价也有其意图。     

资源禀赋、产业结构与俄罗斯经济增长

立足于自然资源禀赋优势和比较优势战略,俄罗斯实现了长达7年的经济增长,但产业结构“原料化”问题却始终困扰着俄罗斯。不过伴随着经济的快速增长,俄罗斯产业结构还是出现了积极变化,更高科技含量的机器制造业以及基础设施部门增长速度加快,甚至超越了原材料工业的发展速度。“原料化”特征固化主要是缘于最近几年世界市场原材料价格飞涨,而非其他行业发展阻滞造成。关于“荷兰病”的论断并没有得到实际数据的有力支持。     

Swedish Diplomacy in the Asia-Pacific Region

The year 2018 marks the 150th anniversary of the establishment of diplomatic relations between Japan and Sweden. It is believed that the first contact between Sweden and Japan came during the Edo Period and was mediated by the Netherlands. The Treaty of Friendship, Commerce and Navigation between Japan and Sweden, signed in 1868, also came into being thanks to the good offices of the Dutch. This treaty, like many others into which Japan entered at that time, was an “unequal treaty.” As Japan increased its presence in East Asia, this unequal treaty with Sweden was revised in 1911. The world was changing. Sweden and Japan shared a common interest in opposing Russia’s ambitions. Russia in particular was a common threat to the diplomatic posture and security of both Japan and Sweden. These two nations, positioned like bookends on either side of Russia, could be important strategic partners for one another and allies in their relationships with Russia. Considering the current issue of North Korea, Sweden also has the potential to act as a mediator because it maintains diplomatic relations with North Korea. There is reason to believe that the diplomatic relationship between Japan and Sweden will develop further.     

商业理念还是地缘政治?——欧美在欧洲对俄天然气进口依赖上的分歧根源及其影响

俄欧天然气关系是跨大西洋伙伴关系中极具争议的议题。欧洲对俄天然气的商业理念之核心,是通过制度设计约束俄罗斯行为的不确定性,同时通过器物层面的天然气基础设施建设和进口多元化,降低俄罗斯中断天然气供给的潜在威胁,最终使俄罗斯成为安全可靠的天然气供给来源。在有关俄欧天然气关系的地缘政治思维上,美国已不仅仅着眼于俄天然气是否会对欧洲能源安全构成威胁,而是更多地将俄天然气视为助长其对外行为能力的重要工具加以限制。随着欧洲对俄天然气进口依赖增强与美国经济制裁力度加大,美欧俄面临经济制裁与国家治理的困境。这一困境可能导致跨大西洋伙伴关系的裂痕加深。欧盟能否通过地缘政治转向应对不断加剧的天然气地缘竞争,取决于其将经济力量变为政治意图的现实可能与效果。     

Chinese Immigration to Russia and Its Non-traditional Security Impact

Russia and China rapidly restore communication after the Cold War, but the Chinese immigration issue is also widely exaggerated and even described as “Yellow Peril again” in Russia. The so-called Yellow Peril is not only a Russian object perception but also a cross-generational conflict between Russia and China. Furthermore, it will be related to the subsequent development of the Russian Far East and Siberia. The Chinese immigration constitutes psychological and survival non-traditional security impacts on Russia and also forms some kind of social competition with Russians. It is vital for Russia to cooperate with its eastern neighbor to accelerate the development of the Russian Far East and Siberia, but national security and social stability are the prerequisites for cooperation. Nevertheless, it is more significant to rebuild self-confidence of the Russians in the Russian Far East and acknowledge that the East will not be a threat to Russia. As long as Russia realizes that it can enjoy unlimited possibilities in the East, the non-traditional security impacts caused by the Chinese immigration will automatically alleviate and even disappear. Today, most Russians are trapped in the dilemma of welcoming or refusing the Chinese immigrants; however, cultural exchange still has some effects and at least causes Russians to begin to positively treat the Chinese immigration and consider whether to accept China and cooperate with China.     

Correspondence

Sir Tony Brenton, formerly British Ambassador to Moscow (2004-2008), considers in this article the Asian dimension of Russia. He considers the historical connections and importance of Asia (as opposed to Europe) in the development of Russia and the historical balance between Asian and European influence. This section pays particular attention to the development of Siberia and early encounters between Russia and China. He then examines shifting Russian attitudes towards Asia at significant moments in Russian history including the 19^th century (the Slavophile Movement), the Communist period, the post-Soviet 1990s and the current era under President Putin. The implications of the Ukraine crisis and the current relationship with China is studied. He concludes with a discussion of whether Russia is likely to see its future orientation as more towards China and Asia, and what implications Russia's deliberation about its future direction has for the western powers.     

俄罗斯与美欧关系变化及对中国的影响

2014年初乌克兰危机爆发后,俄罗斯与美欧关系降到冷战结束后的最低点。但是,具有战略忍耐力的俄罗斯调整对外政策,先是在叙利亚战场打开局面,接着在2019年与美欧的关系也出现缓和。俄美领导人举行会晤,两国外长互访,两国开始就是否延长《新削减战略武器条约》进行谈判。同时,俄美在军备竞赛、地区冲突、人文限制等领域的争斗依旧激烈。随着2020年美国总统大选临近,"通俄门"阴影是否可能再度影响俄美关系,存在较大的不确定性。俄与欧盟关系相对来说比较稳定,双方都有改善关系、加强合作的愿望。乌克兰问题是影响俄欧关系的重要因素之一,2019年乌克兰总统选举后乌俄关系出现某些松动与对话端倪,这将使俄欧关系在2020年继续朝着缓和与合作的方向发展。美国对俄政策调整对俄中关系也许会产生某种影响,但是对整个俄中关系不会发生大的作用。俄乌关系打破僵局、俄欧加强合作则符合中国的立场和利益,中国乐观其成。     

Understanding Russia’s energy turn to China: domestic narratives and national identity priorities

This study investigates whether, as part of a broader “Asian Energy Pivot,” Russia’s energy giant Gazprom refashioned its export strategy away from Europe, and what impact such a reorientation might have on the EU–Russia gas relationship. It uses four empirical cases to emphasize the domestic movers underlying Russia’s eastward shift in energy trade, developing a constructivist theory rooted in the dynamics of Russia’s dominant public narrative and the contours of domestic politics. It argues that Russia’s national interests changed as a result of how Russian policy-makers interpreted and reacted to the stand-off with Europe, in response to what they perceived as Europe’s attempt to isolate it economically and geopolitically. Russia’s Eurasianists, who had advocated the notion of a necessary turn to the East for a long time, positioned themselves as norm entrepreneurs and their new interpretation of the preexisting material incentives shaped the future course of action.     

The use of ‘privileges’ in political discourse in the early modern Low Countries

This article examines why the privileges occupied such a prominent place in Dutch rebel propaganda from the 1560s. It then considers whether these continued to be so highly regarded after the United Provinces gave up the search for a princely overlord to succeed Philip II in the late 1580s. It concludes by suggesting that with the emergence of provincial sovereignty, the privileges gradually lost their significance as one of the bastions of Dutch freedom.     

Testing for sources of electoral competition under authoritarianism: an analysis of Russia’s gubernatorial elections

What drives electoral competition in competitive authoritarian regimes? Most scholarship has assumed that the outcome of these elections is decided by regime manipulation alone. Using three rounds of newly reinstated gubernatorial elections in Russia’s regions, I test this assumption. I identify three distinct measures of competition calibrated to authoritarian elections and assess whether voter preferences or regime manipulation best explain the degree of electoral competition. Relying on new data on protests across Russia’s regions, I find that regions with high protest activity have more contested elections with narrower margins of victory. The results also confirm recent scholarship highlighting the importance of voter turnout for delivering pro-regime victories.     

从除魅到建构——苏尔科夫政治思想的历程与嬗变

作为俄罗斯最重要的政治思想家之一,苏尔科夫的思想理论深刻地影响着俄罗斯的制度建设与国家发展。纵观其思想历程,可以总结为三个比较明晰的发展阶段:第一阶段,2005年,随着普京在第二任期前后夯实了执政地位,苏尔科夫开始打造主权民主的治理理论,并促之成为了官方的政治意识形态;第二阶段开始于俄罗斯与西方爆发对立冲突的乌克兰危机,苏尔科夫展开了对俄罗斯之独特性与二元文明的探讨;第三阶段则是普京开启最后任期之际,苏尔科夫对普京道路进行了总结并极尽鼓吹,认为根植于俄罗斯特有的历史文化与民族特性中的普京道路,才是最适合也是必须遵循的俄罗斯未来发展之路。始于消除西式民主的“魅”,到最终完成对俄罗斯方案的话语建构,通过这三个阶段,苏尔科夫打造出了一套当今俄罗斯的意识形态体系,以此提供了“俄罗斯是谁”、“俄罗斯向何处去”的苏氏答案。