The 9/11 Terrorist Attacks: A Failure of Policy Not Strategic Intelligence Analysis

Abstract

The 9/11 terrorist attacks have been intensively examined as both tactical and strategic intelligence failures but less attention has been paid to the policy failures which preceded them. Perhaps this is due to the presumption that intelligence analysis influences decision-making as a precursor to and foundation for policy. This assumption about the influence of analysis on decision deserves a much closer examination. The 9/11 terrorist attacks provide a good case to study for greater understanding of the influence, or lack of influence, that intelligence analysis has on decision-making. Specifically, the 9/11 Commission Report identifies as a significant failure the lack of a National Intelligence Estimate on the terrorist threat between 1998 and 2001, and implies that if one had been produced it might have helped enable decision-makers to prevent the 9/11 attacks. In other words, a failure of strategic intelligence analysis lay at the foundation of the failure to prevent 9/11. But was this really the case? This article takes a closer look at the case of the missing National Intelligence Estimate by first evaluating what decision-makers knew about the threat prior to the 9/11 attacks, the policies they were implementing at the time, and the extent to which the hypothetical National Intelligence Estimate described by the 9/11 Commission would have mattered in terms of influencing their judgement and policy for the better. It concludes that the 9/11 terrorist attacks were more a failure of policy than strategic intelligence analysis.     

Managing the Welfare State: Lessons from Gustav Möller*

The administrative problems of the present Welfare State have come into focus in recent research. The basic question being raised is whether an elected government can control the bureaucracies that handle the social programmes, i.e., whether the intentions of the parliamentary majority really can be translated into action when they reach the point of administrative implementation. The central subject of this study is the legendary architect of the Swedish Welfare State, Gustav Möller, who was Minister of Social Affairs 1924-26 and 1932-51. It is argued that many of the problems highlighted in present theories of public administration were already apparent to Möller. As the minister responsible for the administrative construction of the Swedish Welfare State, he developed several strategies to cope with the problems of bureaucracy. Having lost the battle over the Social Democratic party leadership in 1946, Gustav Möller left the government in 1951. Subsequently many of his original anti-bureaucratic administrative strategies were reversed.     

Testing the Policy Capacities of Budgetary Agencies: Lessons from Finance

The Commonwealth Department of Finance, together with the Treasury from which it was hived off in 1976, constitutes the central budgetary agency at the Australian federal level. For the purposes of this article, I identify Finance as a convenient working model of central budgetary agencies, at least in their traditional Australian incarnation. I accept that Finance is unlikely to be fully representative of all such Australian agencies, and I acknowledge that the federal government's annual budget is officially introduced into parliament by the Treasurer, and that the Treasury is deservedly regarded as the core budgetary agency. But my focus here is on Finance's special responsibility for the public management framework, and Finance's role in providing policy advice to government organisations on how to make the best use of budget funding. This article then presents the findings of a recent evaluation of selected policy-advising activities with the department.     

State Government Influence in the National Policy Process: Lessons from the 104th Congress

During the last several decades, state officials increasinglyconcluded that their interests are not adequately representedin national policymaking and sought to increase their influencethrough the constitutional amendment process, the federal judiciary,and the political process. This article evaluates the extentto which these institutional mechanisms were effective in advancingstate interests during the 104th Congress. United States Constitutionalamendments were improbable and ineffective devices. Litigationwas slightly more successful, though it provided an uncertainsource of long-term security for state interests. Efforts towork through the political process, either through securingthe passage of legislation that increases congressional responsivenessor by engaging in direct lobbying, were moderately effectiveunder certain conditions.     

The Active Child Citizen: Lessons from Canadian Policy and the Children's Movement

The United Nations Convention on the Rights of the Child has advanced a model of active citizenry for children, which is difficult to reconcile with the still dominant Western notions of childhood that fetishize innocence and attribute passivity and incompetence to children. This article explores the manner in which state policy, Canadian courts, and children's politics in Canada have responded to the imaginary of the active child citizen. The Canadian government has provided limited political space to young people and has narrowly construed children's participation rights as limited to family law and juvenile justice. The reluctance of adult decision-makers to open up policy-making to the contributions of children has been further hindered by the current anti-democratic cast of neo-liberal governance. This article examines how quasi-judicial tribunals and the Canadian courts have invoked the Convention in their dealings with child asylum seekers, only to construct childhood participation and childhood protection as mutually exclusive. The article concludes with a brief exploration of the alternative model of children's citizenship revealed by the children's movement organization, Free the Children. In contrast to the relative failure of adult decision-makers to implement the participation rights of children, the contemporary children's movement advances a view of children as empowered, knowledgeable, compassionate and global citizens, who are nonetheless, like other marginalized groups, in need of special, group-differentiated protections.     

Repealing Federal Oversight of State Health Policy: Lessons from the Boren Amendment

The Boren Amendment is frequently cited as an example where judicial involvement markedly shaped the implementation of federal legislation. Unlike other controversial health policies, Boren was eventually rescinded by Congress. Results indicate that the Amendment was repealed because changing socioeconomic, political, and programmatic conditions combined with policy‐oriented learning to facilitate a shift in policy venue away from the judiciary toward the President and Congress. This is because during the devolutionary climate of the mid‐to‐late 1990s, both the executive and legislature proved more conducive to the policy image promulgated by state officials that the Amendment unnecessarily restricted state discretion, than the policy image promulgated by providers that without the Amendment, low reimbursement levels would compromise access and quality. Data for this analysis derive from archival documents, secondary sources, and 101 interviews with state and federal experts.     

Comments on John Uhr, 'Testing the Policy Capacities of Budgetary Agencies: Lessons from Finance'

These comments derive from a seminar specifically on evaluation policy review organised by the Public Policy Program, Research School of Social Sciences, ANU, in May 1996. Both John Uhr and Hal Colebatch presented their views on the evaluation process and it was felt appropriate to include Hal Colebatch's comments here. John Uhr declined the offer to reply, indicating he would allow the original article to stand on its merits.     

The Rising Tide Economy: Lessons from the Squeezed Middle for Progressive Economic Policy

For all its rhetorical potency, the policy implications of the ‘squeezed middle’ are yet to be fully explored. This article looks at what the phenomenon means for the design and prosecution of progressive economic policy. It argues that any progressive government today needs to adopt a new first order goal of economic policy: ensuring that the material wellbeing of ordinary working people rises when the economy grows, a project referred to as ‘building a rising tide economy’. This objective would sit in addition to the traditional goals of sustained GDP growth, high employment, low inflation and poverty reduction. It would have real implications across a range of important policy areas.     

Lessons for the Study of Policy Implementation: Project Renewal in Israel

This article attempts to clarify some of the issues in the debate over the study of policy implementation, in particular the disagreements between proponents of the top-down versus bottom-up approaches. It proposes use of a modified top-down perspective which bridges the assumed dichotomy between policy formulation, enactment, and an implementation process and addresses many of the concerns of the bottom-up research strategy. This new perspective portrays implementation as part of a single ongoing process in which policy is formulated, enacted and continually readjusted and adapted before and after implementation at the local level. The article is based on an analysis of the findings of a case study of the implementation of Israel's Project Renewal, a comprehensive community renewal and development program – a hybrid resembling the American Urban Renewal, Model Cities and the War on Poverty programs. Rather than evaluate the success of this Israeli program, the intent here is to ask what the research findings teach about the study of policy implementation.     

Iraq the Vote: Retrospective and Prospective Foreign Policy Judgments on Candidate Choice and Casualty Tolerance

In this article, we model the effect of foreign policy attitudes on both vote choice and casualty tolerance, using survey data collected during the 2004 election. We show that prospective judgments of the likelihood of success in Iraq and retrospective judgments of whether the war in Iraq was right are significant determinants of both vote choice and casualty tolerance. The prospective judgment of success is key in predicting casualty tolerance, while retrospective judgment of whether the war was right takes precedence in determining vote choice. In addition, there is an important interaction between the two variables, so the effect of one is conditional on the value of the other. We believe this is compelling evidence that foreign policy matters, and that it matters in reasonable ways.

State‐Building and the European Union's Fight against Corruption in the Southern Caucasus: Why Legitimacy Matters

This article asks under which conditions the state‐building efforts of external actors in areas of limited statehood are likely to be effective. We argue that the legitimacy of the specific norms promoted by external actors among local actors is crucial for their success in strengthening state capacities. International efforts need to resonate with prevalent social norms. To substantiate this argument, we focus on the European Union's (EU) anticorruption programs and their implementation in one of the most corrupt regions in the world, the Southern Caucasus. We show that legitimacy can explain why the EU's fight against corruption helped reduce corruption in Georgia but not in Armenia. In both countries, political elites could selectively use anticorruption programs as an instrument against political opponents, using enhanced state capacities to stabilize the incumbent regime. Only in Georgia, however, was the fight against corruption facilitated by sustained domestic mobilization for anticorruption policies that added pressure on political elites “from below.”     

Silence and Catastrophe: New Reasons Why Politics Matters in the Early Years of the Twenty‐first Century

Megaprojects are systems of highly concentrated power whose footprints, or radius of effects, are without precedent in human history. Once upon a time, even under imperial conditions, most people on our planet lived and loved, worked and played within geographically limited communities. They never had to reckon with all of humanity as a factor in their daily lives. Whenever they acted recklessly within their environment, for instance, they had the option of moving on, safe in the knowledge that there was plenty of Earth and not many others. Whenever bad things happened, they happened within limits. Their effects were local. The politics of megaprojects radically alters this equation; it poses new questions about the governance of risk and the nature and limits of democratic politics. The politics of megaprojects—put simply—raises fundamental questions about the ‘life and death of democracy’.     

Coca Eradication in the Andes: Lessons from Bolivia

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Richard Hofrichter, ed.: Toxics Struggles: The Theory and Practice of Environmental Justice . Philadelphia: New Society Publishers, 1993.

Raymond Bonner: At the Hand of Man: Peril and Hope for Africa's Wildlife. New York: Knopf, 1993.

Theodore Steinberg: Nature Incorporated: Industrialization and the Waters of New England. Cambridge: Cambridge University Press, 1991.