普京道路与"梅普组合"

俄罗斯"梅普组合"成为当今国际上的一大热门话题.俄罗斯今后几年甚至更长时间的发展,在很大程度上取决于"梅普组合"的成效.凡事都有两重性,本文侧重从主流方面,谈谈对这个问题的看法.     

Reflections on Putin and the Media

A political scientist investigates the extent to which, under Vladimir Putin, the Kremlin consolidated control over the Russian media. Conceptually, a contrast is drawn between the Soviet and post-Soviet systems of media control. Data-bases are used to illuminate imbalances of television coverage of presidential candidates and public officials as well as the evolution of popular distrust of the media. Comparisons are drawn with President Alberto Fujimori's defunct regime in Peru and speculation is offered as to the fragility of the Kremlin's control over the media.     

Three dilemmas of hybrid regime governance: Russia from Putin to Putin

This article investigates how hybrid regimes supply governance by examining a series of dilemmas (involving elections, the mass media, and state institutions) that their rulers face. The authors demonstrate how regime responses to these dilemmas – typically efforts to maintain control while avoiding outright repression and societal backlash – have negative outcomes, including a weakening of formal institutions, proliferation of “substitutions” (e.g., substitutes for institutions), and increasing centralization and personalization of control. Efforts by Russian leaders to disengage society from the sphere of decision-making entail a significant risk of systemic breakdown in unexpected ways. More specifically, given significantly weakened institutions for interest representation and negotiated compromise, policy-making in the Russian system often amounts to the leadership's best guess (ad hoc manual policy adjustments) as to precisely what society will accept and what it will not, with a significant possibility of miscalculation. Three case studies of the policy-making process are presented: the 2005 cash-for-benefits reform, plans for the development of the Khimki Forest, and changes leading up to and following major public protests in 2011–2012.     

普京政权交接问题和俄罗斯外交

历史上俄国领导人的政治任期与俄的国际地位有一定的相关性。俄政权交接制度化程度较低,往往影响到国内和国际稳定。考虑到普京任内卓越的贡献和影响力,其政权交接问题对俄外交势将产生重要的影响。如果2008年普京离任,其外交方针将保持延续性,即普京的接班人将继续一方面把欧亚中部作为外交政策的优先着力点,另一方面努力保持与G7为代表的发达世界之间的和谐。受种种结构性因素制约,如果将来的权力交接出现失控,不排除普京时代的外交进程中断的可能。     

普京与地方势力的较量

普京针对叶利钦时期遗留的积弊,采取措施加强中央集权,同地方势力进行斗争。他把俄罗斯卸为七块,建立七个“联邦区”,任命七个总统“全权代表”,力求加强对地方的控制。同时要求改组联邦委员会(上院),使地方长官不得兼任上院议员,使中央有权解除地方长官的职务,并有权解散地方议会。普京的举措符合国家利益,得到社会广泛支持。     

The Putin Thesis and Russian Energy Policy

A specialist on Russian politics and society analyzes Russian President Vladimir Putin's academic work on mineral resources in the Russian economy. Mr. Putin defended a kandidat dissertation in economics and subsequently published an article outlining his view of the appropriate role of the Russian state, and of vertically integrated financial-industrial groups, in the mineral resource sector, and particularly in the oil and gas industry. Connections are drawn between the views expressed in Mr. Putin's publications and policy during his second presidential term.     

Vladimir Putin and the Reaffirmation of Central State Power

Using post-Soviet Kazakhstan as a conceptual point of departure, this article considers the role that proactive framing and persuasion play in ensuring regime survival in soft authoritarian contexts. Drawing on interviews, opinion polls, news media, and the scholarly literature, the authors use three examples—Kazakhstan's OSCE bid, the global financial crisis, and "Rakhatgate"—that highlight the regime's varying proportions of persuasive and coercive efforts. The ways a soft authoritarian leader responds to potentially threatening events are examined. Non-material sources of regime durability are analyzed as essentials for understanding authoritarian regime dynamics and, by implication, for developing a full theory of regime change.     

The Russian State in the Time of Putin

As Putin's second term ends, the tone of Western opinion toward the president has turned increasingly rancorous. Those who feel embittered by the emergence of semi-authoritarianism and crony capitalism out of the communist collapse might consider blaming the theory as well as the man. This article characterizes the post-communist Russian state and Putin's legacy as state builder. Drawing on the Russian studies literature, the article looks at the underlying mechanisms that have long shaped state—society relations in Russia. Using the concept of power resources as an analytical tool, the article attempts to illuminate these mechanisms and, in so doing, examines what is new and what is familiar in the post-communist Russian state.     

互动中的普京外交调整与国内改革

9·11事件之后,普京政府抓住国内经济改善、政治结构趋向稳定的时机,大幅度推进了与美国及其他西方国家的关系。大多数民众对普京调整美、俄关系持肯定态度,政治精英层面较民众而言表现出更为复杂的心态。 俄在与西方国家进行战略调整的同时与其他非西方国家接近,也表明俄作为一个欧亚大国毕竟有着不同于一般西方国家的广泛利益。普京政府正是在大国关系调整的背景下,稳步而又积极地推进国内政治、经济的改革。     

普京时代俄罗斯民主模式的内在逻辑及发展前景

俄罗斯国内外围绕普京时代的俄罗斯民主问题产生广泛争议。争论焦点在于俄的民主模式、进程和发展趋势。俄罗斯已经具备了民主的基本要素,但尚不是发达的民主。俄罗斯发展民主的历史尽管很短,但其成就值得充分肯定。俄罗斯不太可能回归到专制制度,而更可能在民主框架内发展。无论将俄罗斯民主冠以何种名称,都是普京正在引导俄罗斯探索的一条独特的、有本国特色的民主政治道路。     

普京执政以来俄共的新探索及其困境

普京执政以来,俄共在内外政策和工作重心方面作了新调整,即:对普京从期望到失望;斗争目标从幻想到现实;工作重心从上层转向下层,俄共不断探索在新形势下实现重掌政权、复兴社会主义的目标和手段。     

普京对苏联解体和叶利钦时代的评价

多年来俄罗斯各界对苏联和叶利钦政权的评价争论不休。对此普京提出自己的看法:“谁要是不为苏联的解体感到遗憾,他就是没有良心,而谁要是希望恢复苏联,他就是没有头脑。”普京对苏联所作的某种肯定并不意味着要走回头路,而对叶利钦时代的某种批评也不意味着对叶利钦8年改革的否定。肯定苏联是出于争取和团结大多数俄罗斯人的需要,以利局面的稳定,而批评叶利钦则是为了纠正过去的不足,继续叶利钦开创的事业。     

梅普组合下俄罗斯经济增长与政策趋势分析

俄罗斯1999年以来经济增长的最重要的原因和基础,是经济转轨之后建立的市场制度以及经济活动的政治风险逐渐降低,世界能源市场行情带来的资金供给也是重要原因之一.2003年之后,经济的自我良性循环又成为俄罗斯经济增长的主要动力.未来俄罗斯经济增长具有如下基础性因素:制度基础继续完善,经济自由度进一步扩展,促进竞争和提高经济活力的市场结构基础得到改善,普京时期推动的建立创新经济的主张进一步得到贯彻实施,国内市场的扩大对国内需求的拉动.梅普在政治自由和经济竞争性政策问题上不存在根本分歧,梅普组合下经济政策将呈现继承性与调整并存的特点,强国战略仍然是他们的基本政策目标,强国战略的基础仍然是经济发展,但下一步将更依赖市场机制推动发展,俄罗斯结构调整的完成将更依靠企业力量,而不是国家力量.俄罗斯经济将继续保持较快持续增长,俄罗斯经济新的增长点将来自制造业和能源原材料加工工业,但俄罗斯经济中的一些深层次矛盾短期内还难以解决,俄罗斯经济增长仍然面临不确定性.     

Fabricating votes for Putin: new tests of fraud and electoral manipulations from Russia

We extend the “fraud forensics” research to systematically explain precinct-level and regional variations in electoral manipulations in Russia’s March 2012 presidential election. Parametric last-digit frequency tests (a multivariate extension of last-digit tests) are employed to analyze fraud heterogeneity during the vote count stage. We also utilize author-assembled data harvested from the election monitoring non-governmental organization Golos’s regional reports of misconduct to explore the co-variance of last-digit fraud with other irregularities extending beyond the falsification of electoral records. We find that while higher regional education levels positively correlate with exposure of electoral malpractice, an educated populace may also incentivize regional officials to channel misconduct toward election-day fraud – perhaps because pre-electoral manipulations would be more visible to the public than tampering with ballots, and thus, more vulnerable to exposure. Furthermore, last-digit fraud is associated with (a) fake turnout counts; (b) fake votes disproportionally benefitting Putin; and (c) vote “re-distribution” whereby votes cast for some candidates are systematically miscounted. We also find that citizen reports of election-day misconduct are positively correlated with our region-specific last-digit fraud measures. The results indicate that reports by independent observers of sub-national electoral irregularities could be employed as reasonably reliable indicators of fraud, and could be utilized alongside other data to ascertain the incidence of misconduct in Russia and other settings.     

Putin,Popular Protests,and Political Trajectories in Russia: A Comparative Perspective

During December 2011, large-scale, anti-regime protests erupted across Russia. What do the Russian uprisings reveal about popular challenges to authoritarian rule and the political trajectory of contemporary Russian authoritarianism? This study identifies two models of citizen mobilization against authoritarian leaders, one focusing on street-based protests and the other using elections as the key arena for launching popular challenges. Three factors encouraging both models are analyzed: declining public support for the regime; growing evidence that leaders are no longer invincible; and changing political opportunities for the opposition. The extent to which these conditions are present in Russia and what this ledger suggests about plausible political trajectories there are evaluated.     

俄罗斯的府会关系及对政治稳定之影响——叶利钦与普京时期之探讨

府会关系、政党政治对政治稳定的影响,是民主政治的判别标准之一。苏联瓦解,俄罗斯联邦取而代之,并随之采取激进的政策进行民主化与市场化改革,以期向民主政治与市场经济制度全面转型。转型期间,府会关系产生严重的冲突与对立,冲击到政府的威信与国家的存续,以叶利钦时期为最。继之,普京执政,扭转了情势与府会关系,将国家社会带向新高峰。如此的转变,关键因素在于普京调整了国内政策,特别是颁布了政党法来整合政治势力,使国内出现了政党政治的雏型,对政治稳定产生了极大的作用。可见,府会关系对政治稳定有绝对的影响,其中以对国家政策方向和政党政治的影响为最,这从叶利钦与普京两个时期的府会关系及其对政治稳定的影响可具体看出。简言之,俄罗斯的府会关系明显影响政治稳定,议会中的政党政治又扮演着决定性的角色。     

亲鸾语录《叹异抄》及其民众观

亲鸾语录《叹异抄》凭借其亲于民众的思想内容,成为日本史上备受青睐的百姓读物。其强调的“善恶平等”恶人往生”“同朋”等观念,体现了较强的民众色彩,在展示思想家亲鸾的民众立场及庶民情怀的同时,也映射出镰仓新佛教的时代前瞻性=和历史觉悟。而《叹异抄》给予民众的思想解放,更凸显了亲鸾在日本思想史、哲学史上的重要地位。