Terrorist attacks targeting the police: the connection to foreign military presence

Terrorist attacks – suicide attacks in particular – targeting police have increased worldwide over the past decade in both number and relative to other targets. One plausible explanation for this is the presence of a foreign military on a country’s soil, which is theorized to increase terrorism in that country. Terrorist attacks targeting the police may be more likely in these countries because police typically are tasked with assisting the foreign military. The primary research question asks whether there is a relationship between foreign military presence and terrorist attacks on police. This is assessed using a cross-sectional sample of 82 countries, with data drawn from several sources between 1999 and 2008. Because the dependent variables – terrorist attacks targeting the police – are proportions, Tobit and Cragg’s double-hurdle analyses were used. Analyses were confirmed using zero-inflated negative binomial regression models, with the outcomes measured as counts. Foreign military presence significantly increased the proportion of suicide terrorist attacks targeting the police, terrorist attacks using any tactic targeting the police and fatal terrorist attacks targeting the police. Greater economic inequality, involvement in civil war and greater regional terrorism were related to the proportion of attacks targeting police, but each was inconsistent across the outcome measures. To avoid being viewed as an occupying force and, thus, to decrease the proportion and count of terrorist attacks targeting police, administrators and officers alike may wish to reflect on public perception of their image. Future research should expand the dependent variable to include additional target types and a longer time period.     

Policing terrorism and police–community relations: views of the Arab minority in Israel

Police involvement in counterterrorism has special ramifications on minority groups that may be viewed as presenting high risk to homeland security. Our public survey shows that the Jewish respondents in our sample expressed positive attitudes toward police involvement in mission of counterterrorism, while Israeli Arabs expressed more concern with the ramifications of police involvement in counterterrorism on its relations with the Arabs in particular. The results show that both communities recognized the central role that the police may play in dealing with terrorism, and they both expressed high levels of willingness to cooperate with the police to fight against terrorism.     

Why Do Some Terrorist Attacks Receive More Media Attention Than Others?

Abstract

Terrorist attacks often dominate news coverage as reporters seek to provide the public with information. Yet, not all incidents receive equal attention. Why do some terrorist attacks receive more media coverage than others? We argue that perpetrator religion is the largest predictor of news coverage, while target type, being arrested, and fatalities will also impact coverage. We examined news coverage from LexisNexis Academic and CNN.com for all terrorist attacks in the United States between 2006 and 2015 (N?=?136). Controlling for target type, fatalities, and being arrested, attacks by Muslim perpetrators received, on average, 357% more coverage than other attacks. Our results are robust against a number of counterarguments. The disparities in news coverage of attacks based on the perpetrator’s religion may explain why members of the public tend to fear the “Muslim terrorist” while ignoring other threats. More representative coverage could help to bring public perception in line with reality.     

Europol and the Policing of International Terrorism: Counter‐Terrorism in a Global Perspective

The European Police Office (Europol) is an international police organization that was formed to promote cooperation among law enforcement agencies in the European Union. Framed within the context of the Treaty of the European Union, Europol’s mandate includes all serious forms of international crime, including international terrorism. This paper offers an analysis of the organization of Europol’s counter‐terrorism operations in the context of the history and dynamics of international police cooperation. More specifically, on the basis of the bureaucratization theory of policing, Europol is reviewed to exemplify the dual forces of political control over the organization via the regulative bodies of the European Union, on the one hand, and the institutional autonomy and professional expertise of participating police agencies, on the other. The outcome of these dual forces can be expected to determine the course and outcome of counter‐terrorist policing in the European Union in years to come.     

Situational prevention of terrorism. Remarks from the field of counterterrorism in the Netherlands on Newman and Clarke’s Policing Terrorism

In this paper I shall discuss how criminal investigation might contribute to a situational approach to terrorism. Therefore I discuss Policing Terrorism by Newman and Clarke, and confront it with experiences from work in the field of counterterrorism: criminal investigations at the Dutch National Police Agency (NPA). I demonstrate that Newman and Clarke have too narrow a scope on policing terrorism, in particular when it comes to the role of criminal investigation. They restrict their focus to local police work in the phases immediately before and after a terrorist attack. This is unfortunate because case files show that criminal investigators play a central role in the prevention of terrorism. They intervene in earlier phases of terrorist preparation, target a wider range of terrorist offences than terrorist attacks, and prosecute radicals for their non-terrorist offences. Furthermore, criminal investigations offer insights that might be of help in developing an SCP approach to terrorism.     

Protecting Global Cities: New York,London and the Internationalization of Municipal Policing for Counter Terrorism

Policing counter terrorism is increasingly seen as key task for police forces spanning the entire spectrum of size and capability. However, in the case of many police forces, resource limitations, low threat levels and coordination with national level law enforcement have combined to limit the expansion of their counter terrorism efforts to things like minor increases in training and heightened awareness. There are however, at the other end of the spectrum, some city police forces that have drastically reorganized and reoriented their day-to-day operations in response to heightened threats. Relying on their unique access to resources, political autonomy and unique threat levels, New York City and London have internationalized their policing efforts in an unprecedented way. This article explores the similarities, differences and dynamics of this phenomenon.     

The Lethality of Female Suicide Bombers

Over the past 50 years, suicide bombings have become an increasingly common tactic of politically motivated violence, and a rising number of these attacks feature women perpetrators. Prior literature suggested that female-perpetrated suicide bombings occurring between 1985 through 2008 inflicted greater casualties, which may account in part for their increased use by terror groups. The current research project ascertains whether sex continues to predict the lethality of suicide bombing attacks perpetrated by terror groups over the decade leading up to 2016. The study utilizes secondary data sampled from the Global Terrorism Database (N?=?881) and the Chicago Project on Security and Threats (N?=?1,722). A negative binomial model regressing lethality against perpetrator and conflict covariates did not observe a statistically significant relationship between sex and lethality. Male and female suicide bombers demonstrated similar lethality in suicide bombing events between 2005 and 2016, although scatterplots suggest some aberration during the years 2009, 2010, and 2016. Pairwise comparisons of perpetrator sex by conflict observed some variation in the lethality of attacks, with female suicide bombers from Al Qaeda, the Islamic State of Iraq, and Iraqi rebel groups found more lethal than male suicide bombers from Boko Haram and the Nigerian rebels. The current research project contributes to the literature by demonstrating the evolving nature of terrorism and tactics relevant to the lethality of politically motivated violent attacks.     

A comparative analysis of conviction outcomes of American domestic terrorists

This research uses quantitative analyses to determine whether or not conviction outcomes differ across three major American domestic terrorism groups: ecoterrorists, left-wing extremists, and right-wing extremists. Findings suggest that ecoterrorists receive lighter treatment within the criminal justice system while controlling for important variables, such as gender, age, and count severity. Findings highlight differences between “home-grown” terrorist groups, departing from a large segment of terrorism research focused on domestic versus international comparisons or terrorist versus civilian comparisons. Results elicit new research questions to understand why domestic terrorists receive differential treatment within the criminal justice system, despite controlling for key variables.     

Government protection against terrorism and crime

A game theoretic model is developed where a government protects against a terrorist seeking terrorism and criminal objectives. A terrorist can recruit a benefactor providing funds by remaining ideologically pure, or may resort to crime. The model accounts for the players’ resources, unit costs of effort, unit benefit and valuations and contest intensities for terrorist and crime objectives. We determine and quantify how these factors and the government impact a terrorist’s terrorism and crime efforts and relative ideological orientation on a continuum from being highly ideological to being highly criminal. We also consider how the terrorist group is impacted by support of benefactor(s), the central authority’s ability to impose greater sanctions for terrorist activities compared to criminal actions and the ideological orientation of the group’s leadership. We discuss insights from the model and consider a few historical perspectives.     

How has the Israel National Police perceived its role in counterterrorism and the potential outcomes? A qualitative analysis of annual police reports

Policing terrorism has increased in recent years. Correspondingly, policing scholars and practitioners have begun to consider the potential effects of this responsibility on the performance of the police and their relationship with the public. In this article, we use a qualitative analysis of annual police reports to examine how the Israel National Police perceived its role in counterterrorism and the potential implications. We find different perceptions in different periods and partial acknowledgment of potential outcomes. We consider the views of the police in relation to those of the public, and speculate on the differences between the three examined time periods.     

Microcycles of Violence: Evidence from Terrorist Attacks by ETA and the FMLN

Recent research has demonstrated that individual crimes elevate the risk for subsequent crimes nearby, a phenomenon termed “near-repeats.” Yet these assessments only reveal global patterns of event interdependence, ignoring the possibility that individual events may be part of localized bursts of activity, or microcycles. In this study, we propose a method for identifying and analyzing criminal microcycles; groups of events that are proximate to each other in both space and time. We use the Global Terrorism Database (GTD) to analyze over 4,000 terrorist attacks attributed to the FMLN in El Salvador and the ETA in Spain; two terrorist organizations that were both extremely active and violent but differed greatly in terms of history, grievances and motives. Based on the definition developed, we find strong support for the conclusion that many of the terrorist attacks attributed to these two distinctive groups were part of violent microcycles and that the spatio-temporal attack patterns of these two groups exhibit substantial similarities. Our logistic regression analysis shows that for both ETA and the FMLN, compared to other tactics used by terrorists, bombings and non-lethal attacks are more likely to be part of microcycles and that compared to attacks which occur elsewhere, attacks aimed at national or provincial capitals or areas of specific strategic interest to the terrorist organization are more likely to be part of microcycles. Finally, for the FMLN only, compared to other attacks, those on military and government targets were more likely part of microcycles. We argue that these methods could be useful more generally for understanding the situational and temporal distribution of crime.     

Program analysis of the NYPD container inspection program

In response to the 9/11 terrorist attacks and the bus and train bombings in England and Spain that followed, the New York City Police Department (NYPD) developed the ‘Container Inspection Program’ which ‘focuses on backpacks and containers large enough to hold explosives, [and to] ideally discourage subway riders from carrying backpacks and large bags in the subway system’. This paper analyzes the NYPD Container Inspection Program.     

Fear of terrorism: media exposure and subjective fear of attack

In many Western countries, citizen knowledge of terrorist events is intrinsically shaped by the style of broadcasted messages published by the media. Media discourses regarding terrorist acts raise questions about how such rhetoric elicits fear in people who typically experience such events through news reports. However, we do not fully understand the impact of the media on perceptions of terrorism as clearly as we understand the relationship between the media and fear of crime. This study examines how media sources accessed actively (e.g. through newspapers; Internet) or passively (e.g. through television; radio) influence knowledge and fear of terrorism. We find receiving information about terrorism from multiple media sources increases fear of terrorism, but media sources accessed passively are not as influential as media sources accessed more actively. These results highlight how media consumption from various sources may affect one’s fear of terrorism, and further illustrates how the role of perceived knowledge may exacerbate or mitigate fear. Implications for policy and practice are discussed.     

The future of terrorism research: a review essay

This essay sets forth a research agenda to begin filling some key gaps in terrorism studies. Since the September 2001 Al Qaeda attacks against the World Trade Center towers and the Pentagon that claimed over 3000 lives, interest in terrorism research has increased. After these attacks, the United States and other governments prioritized the scientific study of the causes of and responses to terrorism. Importantly though, our review of the terrorism literature demonstrates that despite this progress, intriguing questions remain underexplored or altogether unexplored. This essay identifies four gaps in terrorism studies: (1) employing non-terrorist comparison groups, (2) broadening the dependent variable (focus of study), (3) exploring exceptions/anomalies to “established” findings, and (4) engaging measurement issues. We discuss these issues and outline a research agenda that could begin to fill these gaps.     

我国刑法中“恐怖活动犯罪”的认定

“制造社会恐怖”是恐怖活动犯罪特有的犯罪目的 ,正确理解恐怖活动犯罪的这一犯罪目的的内容 ,以及由这一目的决定的恐怖活动犯罪的罪过结构和客观特征 ,是司法实践中认定恐怖活动犯罪 ,正确适用刑法相关规定的基本前提。     

Patterns of Onset and Decline Among Terrorist Organizations

Despite considerable speculation among terrorism researchers regarding the conditions leading to organizational desistance from terrorism, quantitative analysis of terrorism frequently focuses on terrorist attacks as the unit of analysis, resulting in a near complete absence of analyses of terrorist organizations themselves. Moreover, research on organizations that engage in terrorism has generally been limited to case studies of individual organizations. Toward a more general understanding of what conditions predict organizational desistance from terrorism, this study uses newly available data from the Global Terrorism Database to analyze the terrorist activity of 557 organizations that were active for at least 365 days between 1970 and 2008. Much like research on conventional crime, prior research on terrorism has focused almost exclusively on the onset of criminal behavior and has neglected determinants of declining activity. Here I use group-based trajectory models to investigate patterns of decline in organization-level terrorist activity. In particular I examine how patterns of onset relate to patterns of decline among these organizations. I first estimate the trajectory models for the organizations’ frequency of attacks, and then calculate the annual ratio of attacks to attacks-at-peak for each organization in order to isolate patterns of decline, independent of the magnitude of activity. I then repeat the trajectory analysis to determine if the relative shape of the organizational trajectory has significance beyond the overall frequency of attacks. I find that the speed and magnitude of an organization’s emergence are correlated with its longevity such that those organizations characterized by rapid onset are two to three times more likely than those characterized by moderate onset to reach moderate or high levels of attacks per year. Likewise, as the rate and overall volume of attacks at onset increase, so does the likelihood that the group will follow a persistent pattern of decline. I conclude with a discussion of the implications of patterns of decline among terrorist organizations for research and policy.     

Terrorism Risk, Resilience and Volatility: A Comparison of Terrorism Patterns in Three Southeast Asian Countries

Objective

This article explores patterns of terrorist activity over the period from 2000 through 2010 across three target countries: Indonesia, the Philippines and Thailand.

Methods

We use self-exciting point process models to create interpretable and replicable metrics for three key terrorism concepts: risk, resilience and volatility, as defined in the context of terrorist activity.

Results

Analysis of the data shows significant and important differences in the risk, volatility and resilience metrics over time across the three countries. For the three countries analysed, we show that risk varied on a scale from 0.005 to 1.61 “expected terrorist attacks per day”, volatility ranged from 0.820 to 0.994 “additional attacks caused by each attack”, and resilience, as measured by the number of days until risk subsides to a pre-attack level, ranged from 19 to 39 days. We find that of the three countries, Indonesia had the lowest average risk and volatility, and the highest level of resilience, indicative of the relatively sporadic nature of terrorist activity in Indonesia. The high terrorism risk and low resilience in the Philippines was a function of the more intense, less clustered pattern of terrorism than what was evident in Indonesia.

Conclusions

Mathematical models hold great promise for creating replicable, reliable and interpretable “metrics” to key terrorism concepts such as risk, resilience and volatility.     

Gender Differences in Worry About a Terrorist Attack: A Cross-National Examination of Individual- and National-Level Factors

Prior research has found gender to be associated with worry about crime and terrorism. We used World Values Survey data to assess gender differences in worry about terrorism across 54 nations. Analyses also examined the influence of individual- and national-level factors. Women were significantly more worried about terrorism in 22 of the 54 nations. Men in Iraq, Libya, Yemen, and New Zealand were significantly more worried about terrorism than women. Individuals were more likely to worry about terrorism as the nation’s average mortality count in terrorist incidents increased. Policy implications and directions for future research are discussed.     

Lessons from empirical research on policing in Israel: policing terrorism and police–community relationships

This article reviews recent empirical research on policing terrorism and police–community relationships in Israel, for the purpose of drawing lessons for policing in Israel and other democratic societies. The studies in the first section reveal the implications of policing terrorism for crime control and police–community relationships. In the second section, studies show a long-term drop in public support for the police. They also address the implementation of community policing, the relationship between the Israel National Police and the Arab sector, and the importance of procedural justice to Israeli citizens. In our discussion, we take a broad perspective and suggest overall conclusions and implications.     

Pathway to terrorist behaviors: The role of childhood experiences,personality traits,and ideological motivations in a sample of Iraqi prisoners

Radicalization to terrorism is a multifaceted process with no single theory or approach to explain it. Although research has focused on understanding the process, there is still a dearth of studies that examine an empirically driven pathway to terrorism behavior. This study examines a cross-sectional sample of incarcerated men convicted of terrorism in Iraq (N = 160). A questionnaire-guided interview included adverse childhood experiences (ACEs), conduct disorder (CD), antisocial personality disorder (ASPD), religious and political ideology, views about causes of terrorism, and the severity of terrorist acts. Path analysis was employed to examine the relationships between these factors and to identify the model with the best fit. After adjusting for age, employment, and location, results indicated that ACEs positively impacted CD, ASPD, religious guidance, and terrorism attitudes. ASPD positively affected political commitment and terrorism attitudes, but inversely affected current religious commitment. Political commitment inversely influenced terrorism attitudes. Religious commitment positively influenced the prioritization of religion in life, which subsequently impacted terrorism attitudes and behavior severity. Additionally, attitudes toward terrorism directly affected the severity of terrorism behavior. All paths in the final model were statistically significant at p < 0.05. Although these findings may be limited in generalizability due to the unique sample, results support the complex and interdependent nature of childhood and adult experiences on the development of both terrorism attitudes and the severity of terrorism behavior.