Predicting Technology Success: Identifying Key Predictors and Assessing Expert Evaluation for Advanced Technologies

This study investigates a set of precursor factors that appear related to future technology success, and whether or not expert evaluators can a priori provide useful information during the technology review process. Sixty-nine highly advanced post 9–11 technologies are tracked over time. Based upon the results of this study, we conclude that a reasonably good predictive model can be constructed from organizational and technology factors, such as firm size, stage of development, and strategic partnerships. The results also indicate that the incremental value of expert reviewers and technology evaluators to predict future technology success is relatively small. Reviewers that provided the greatest predicative power, however, had current scientific responsibilities. These results raise important issues regarding the capability of developing predictive models of technology success.      

Maximizing R&D investments in the Department of Energy's Environmental cleanup program

The investment made in research and development (R&D) by the Department of Energy's (DOE) Environmental Management (EM) program must result in products that will significantly benefit the Department's cleanup efforts. A customer-oriented decision-making process for managing technology development is needed to appropriately link technology development activities with cleanup operations. This paper presents a process for R&D management, which we have named the Technology Investment Decision Model.The model identifies six R&D stages leading to technology implementation. The model incorporates decision points (or “gates”) within the R&D process where projects are selected for funding. The purpose of this “stage-gate” process is to ensure early evaluation of projects against technical and nontechnical criteria in order to ensure that end products will not only provide superior performance, but also meet the acceptance requirements of the intended customers. The model addresses the technology transfer and commercialization factors that must be considered to get technological innovations into the marketplace. The model is now being implemented within the EM technology development program and is providing a common framework to align the Department's environmental R&D activities with its cleanup goals.     

Technology transfer at land-grant universities

Improvement in the ability of universities in the United States to transfer technology to the private sector is seen as a factor in strengthening American competitiveness. To better understand the university's role in this process, a survey of formal university programs in technology transfer was performed through personal interviews at four midwestern land-grant universities. There are six basic types of programs in place: technical assistance, affiliate, licensing, business development, incubators and research parks, and information networks. For purposes of classifying these programs, we used the model developed by Janis et al. (1) It was found that, of the six modes of technology transfer, two could be considered active, three semi-active and one passive.     

Law versus technology: Blockchain,GDPR, and tough tradeoffs

Inconsistency between the way in which the law is structured, and the way in which technologies actually operate is always an interesting and useful topic to explore. When a law conflicts with a business model, the solution will often be changing the business model. However, when the law comes into conflict with the architecture of hardware and software, it is less clear how the problem will be managed.In this paper, we analyze the contradiction of blockchain technology and the requirements of GDPR. The three contradictions we examine are (i) right to be forgotten versus irreversibility/immutability of records, (ii) data protection by design versus tamper-proofness and transparency of blockchain, and (iii) data controller versus decentralized nodes. We highlight that the conflicts can be handled through focusing on commonalities of GDPR and the blockchain, developing new approaches and interpretations, and tailoring the blockchain technology according to the needs of data protection law.     

The development of care technology under liability law

It is well known that strict liability and negligence induce pareto optimal care in a most restrictive model of unilateral accidents. The paper at hand extends this traditional theorem from its static context to an intertemporal setting where tort law induces progress in care technology. This model provides a methodological framework for a general analysis of the dynamic incentives generated by alternative liability rules. One of the many possible extensions of the basic model is to allow for incomplete information. Particularly, we drop the assumption that the authority setting the due care standard under negligence is able to assess technical progress ex ante. It is shown that the dynamic incentives of the negligence rule are distorted compared to strict liability in this modified framework.     

Effectiveness of university technology transfer: an organizational population ecology view of a maturing supplier industry

In this article, we propose that universities engaged in technology transfer activities can be viewed as the University Technology Commercialization (UTC) industry. We use an organizational population ecology perspective to outline an economic model for the analysis of the UTC industry. We introduce cohort analysis and time-lagged comparisons of multiple stages in the commercialization process to examine the efficiency and productivity of the industry. Our main source of data is the Association of University Technology Managers licensing surveys from 1991 through 2004. Results indicate that industry growth is slowing, and that the technology transfer process is becoming less efficient; opportunities for individual and/or collective action are noted.     

Universities and Technology Transfer in Japan: Recent Reforms in Historical Perspective

The Japanese government has embarked on a series of reforms aimed at stimulating technology transfer from universities to industry. As a result, technology licensing offices are springing up at many national universities. Advocates hope that these reforms will increase the level of university patenting and licensing, which historically has not been a common mode of technology transfer in Japan. Their model is the technology licensing process in the United States, which acquired its present form after passage of the Bayh-Dole Technology Transfer Act of 1980. Such changes face serious historical and institutional barriers. Academic researchers, especially in engineering and physical science, have a long record of collaborative research with industry. Decisions about patenting, however, were usually left to the corporate partner; universities rarely filed for patents under their own name, nor have they, until recently, encouraged or assisted faculty researchers in doing so. Consequently, we believe that current reforms, by going against the grain of past practices, will take time to achieve the hoped for results.     

From Operational Strategy to Serving the Customer: Technology and Ethics in Welfare Law

We previously wrote critically on the UK's welfare computerization programme of the 1980s and in this article we investigate the latest programme. Our argument is that welfare is being seen and is being understood in a technological context rather than a truly welfare one— that is, that the technology behind the computerization projects model views of how welfare recipients should be processed. In the 1980s, the computer model that was being applied was one of data processing (i.e. the 'business model'). In the 2000s, it is the model of computer-based communication (i.e. the 'Internet model'). But further, the new technological communication model is being effused with an ethical aspect— that those who do not communicate are lacking in socio-ethical responsibility to society, and are deemed not to be truly living up to their role as citizens.     

Analysing High Technology Diffusion and Public Transference Programs: The Case of the European Game Program

This paper will try to contribute to the understanding of public programs supporting high technology diffusion and transference. The framework utilised will combine the theory of technology and innovation diffusion and the use of value mapping methodology. The article provides empirical evidence on the variables, which contribute to filling some research gaps on the assessment of high tech diffusion programs. For this we have utilised the evaluation of the GAME initiative, part of the European Commission IV Research Framework Programme. The objective of this program was to diffuse microelectronics technology among Spanish firms. Using one hundred set cases and employing multivariable analysis methods it was found that a model could be built with two multivariable constructs to explain and understand technology diffusion, absorption and transference flows. In addition, the model is useful for evaluating technology dissemination using the diffusion model to measure its social impact. The statistical methodology applied, as a complement to value mapping, provides a robustness in the results which is not normally furnished by classical evaluation methods. It also reinforces value mapping as an adequate tool for high tech cases with certain modifications to the original approach. The␣latter is due to the uncertainty of technology disruption curves and change, as well as to the changing conditions in the economies of scale.      

我国合同能源管理法律关系探究

我国从国外引进的合同能源管理是一种推广节省能源新技术的模式,在实际运行中需要协调与整合技术、资金、设施建设与项目管理等多方面的关系,因而,我国对合同能源管理、能源管理合同属性的认识比较模糊,并存在多种看法。为此,必须厘清合同能源管理所涉及的法律关系,充分解析能源管理合同的法律属性,分析把握合同能源管理运营中资产等所有权归属问题,在我国现有法律体系框架范围内,正确、有效地调整合同能源管理关系,积极促进节能新技术在全社会的推广、普及。     

The technology transfer process: Concepts,framework and methodology

The concepts, framework and methodology of the technology transfer process are discussed. On the basis of research a model of the transfer mechanism is developed. This model is carried through several iterations to arrive at a predictive model of technology transfer. The model is useful in terms of exposing difficiencies in the acceptance of new and/or innovative technology. In addition the model has a future usefulness in terms of providing a basis for a quantitative measure of the effectiveness of an organization to capitalize on the technology transfer process.     

Licensing versus selling in transactions for exploiting patented technological knowledge assets in the markets for technology

This paper examines the determinants of the types of technology transactions in the markets for technology. On the basis of the relationship between the characteristics of a firm’s patents and the firm’s decision on whether to license out or sell these patented technologies, we empirically analyze the determinants of the decision. We employ interlocked patent data from the representative Korean market for technology, the National Technology Bank, using a bivariate probit regression model in a theoretical framework that includes the option and transaction cost perspectives. Overall, the results show that the relationship between licensing and selling, the major alternatives in technology transactions, is strongly substitutive. The major finding of this study is that firms in markets for technology tend to prefer licensing their patents when uncertainty is low or transaction cost is high, whereas they tend to prefer selling their patents under opposite conditions.     

A new perspective to explore the technology transfer efficiencies in US universities

Universities play a critical role in the complex technology transfer process that facilitates technology transformation from pure research activities to commercialization. The literature has recently focused on whether universities are efficient in this process. With a two-stage perspective, this study explores the required capabilities for universities to be efficient in technology transfer process. To explore the efficiencies in different stages of technology transfer, we apply a 2-stage process DEA method. The model considers 2 inputs, 2 intermediate variables, and 3 output variables from the Association of University Technology Management database. These variables represent funding resource, patenting activities, and licensing and entrepreneurships. Technology transfer in the 2-stage perspective includes the research innovation stage and the value creation stage. The results show that achieving efficiency in the 2 technology-transfer stages requires many different innovation capabilities; thus, most efficient universities only perform efficiently in one of the two stages. When mapping the relative site of universities in the reference network, we found that efficient universities in the research innovation stage are in a more centralized location than those in the value creation stage. By contrast, in the value creation stage, efficient universities can be identified as different reference groups for specific inefficient universities. The network visualization also helps to explain that universities must consider their relative advantages and capabilities to reach efficiency goals in different stages. The comparison between the large-scale group and the small-scale group also showed that a resource scale is critical for universities to accumulate different required capabilities for efficiencies in both stages.     

Is the risk of North–South technology transfer failure an obstacle to a cooperative climate change agreement?

We setup a stylized model with endogenous North–South technology transfer for climate change mitigation. We theoretically identify the driving factors that enhance or hinder cooperation with socially optimal binding targets on emissions and on investment in technology transfer. We find that the risk of technology transfer failure creates an obstacle to the achievement of the cooperative agreement: under cooperation, the South will have to fulfill the emissions target at high costs if technology transfer fails. Under non-cooperation without any binding targets, the North still has an intrinsic motivation to reduce emissions in the South at low costs via technology transfer; and the South does not have the pressure to fulfill an emissions target. As a result, non-cooperation shifts part of the costs of a technology transfer failure from the poor South to the rich North and can thus be preferable for the South. Two policy implications for achieving the cooperative solution are derived: first, the South should be insured against or compensated for a technology transfer failure. Second, an agreement on technology transfer should be formulated in terms of emissions reductions or low-carbon technology capacities that are to be achieved rather than in terms of monetary payments with uncertain effects on emissions. We discuss the model results in the context of empirical facts and current developments.     

On-line Citizenship: Consultation and Participation in New Labour's Britain and Beyond

This article looks critically at how the Labour Government in the United Kingdom is using technology to connect with citizens. Although the UK Online and Citizen's Portal initiative may improve the level of service in transactions between government and citizens it is argued that such an approach misses out on the possibilities of using technology to re-invigorate democracy by creating a new public space where participatory decision making can enhance a wider project of democratic renewal. After reviewing briefly the background of government using technology, the article examines ideas of participatory democracy and endorses a normative ideal of democracy as political communication within a model of democratic process where citizens must engage with one another and with government in a genuinely neutral public space. The potential of technology to enhance democratic decision making is reviewed and a model of participatory decision making for computer support is outlined. This is followed by an overview of the range of computer support tools that are available to develop such a model.     

Selling your organization on technology transfer: The metaphor of movement

Corporate technology transfer strategies often focus on the movement of tangible assets—products, processes, “off-the-shelf” technologies, and so on. We argue that the transfer of information- and knowledge-based assets are a critical element of successful competition in global markets, particularly for service industries. In this article we develop a model for (1) identifying a company's “information asset portfolio” and (2) managing the flow of these assets for commercial gain. The Technology Transfer Professional is at the center of this process of information movement and management.     

Empirical evaluation of a technology acceptance model for mobile policing

Technology acceptance in policing is under-researched, yet mobile devices are widely implemented across UK police forces. The paper validates a mobile technology acceptance model (M-TAM) developed in a single police force. It shows that the M-TAM is transferrable to other UK police forces, and potentially worldwide. The influence of local supervision and fit of technology to roles and tasks are shown to be the most influential factors. Factors beyond the technology itself, such as the influence of peers and involvement of operational officers in technology investment decisions, must be considered to accommodate the strong cultural barriers in policing.     

节约型社会科技法律促进机制研究

科技法律是节约型社会的重要促进因素。节约型社会科技法律促进机制可以分为政府主导型、市场诱导型、综合协调型三种类型。在中国现阶段,可以采取综合协调型节约型社会科技法律促进机制,但又重点依赖政府主导型节约型社会科技法律促进机制来推动节约科技进步与节约型社会建设。根据节约型社会科技法律促进机制类型选择,我们发现中国节约型社会科技法律促进机制目前在科技立法、科技执法、科技司法、科技法律实施监督等方面存在诸多现实困境,必须采取以下措施进一步完善:第一,与时俱进地推进与完善科技立法;第二,循序渐进地改革与强化科技执法;第三,因势利导地改革与完善科技司法;第四,因地制宜地实施与推进法律监督;第五,竭尽所能地强化科技法制宣教。     

Evaluating academic technology transfer performance by how well access to knowledge is facilitated––defining an access metric

Why should research institutions engage in technology transfer? Some say it is about the money. Others say it is about public service and benefit. In the end, we measure what we value. If we only measure money, we confound the non-profit mission of the research institution. If we measure economic impact, the non-profit technology transfer office is often expected to become the economic developer, confusing real estate and business development with technology transfer, often without additional funding. These mission strains lead to overwhelm, fatigue, service shortcomings, and unhappy customers across all classes of stakeholders. This article suggests a return to center for academic technology transfer offices (TTOs) by focusing on a most important question for drivers of our present global knowledge economy––how well does a TTO facilitate access to knowledge protected by intellectual property of its faculty and institution? This article proposes that academic technology transfer performance should be evaluated by how well a TTO avails access to knowledge. Given that performance measures are also referred to as “metrics,” we call this preferred outcomes orientation an access metric.     

浅析农业支持与保护之农业科技推广——以黑龙江省农科院为例谈“院县农业科技合作共建模式”

建立健全农业科技推广服务体系,加强对农民的技术培训,是我国加入世界贸易组织之后实现农业支持与保护目标的必然要求。尽管目前我国在农业科技推广过程中还存在一些问题,但也积累了许多有益的经验。黑龙江省农科院开展的＂院县农业科技合作共建＂方式探索出了一条科技兴农,建设社会主义新农村的有效模式,为科技服务、科技推广、科技帮扶开辟了新思路。