Cross-Classified Multilevel Models: An Application to the Criminal Case Processing of Indicted Terrorists

This study provides an application of cross-classified multilevel models to the study of early case processing outcomes for suspected terrorists in U.S. federal district courts. Because suspected terrorists are simultaneously nested within terrorist organizations and criminal court environments, they are characterized by overlapping data hierarchies that involve cross-nested ecological contexts. Cross-classified models provide a useful but underutilized approach for analyzing such data. Using the American Terrorism Study (ATS), this research examines case dismissals, trial adjudications and criminal convictions for a sample of 574 terrorist suspects. Findings indicate that diverse factors affect case processing outcomes, including legal factors such as the number of counts, number of co-defendants, and statute of indictment, extralegal factors such as the ethnicity of the offender, and incident characteristics such as the type of terrorism target. Case processing outcomes also vary significantly across both terrorist groups and criminal courts and are partially explained by select group and court characteristics including the type of terrorist organization and the terrorism trial rate of the court. Results are discussed vis-à-vis contemporary research on terrorism punishments and future directions are suggested for additional applications of cross-classified models in criminological research.     

Bombing Alone: Tracing the Motivations and Antecedent Behaviors of Lone‐Actor Terrorists,,

This article analyzes the sociodemographic network characteristics and antecedent behaviors of 119 lone‐actor terrorists. This marks a departure from existing analyses by largely focusing upon behavioral aspects of each offender. This article also examines whether lone‐actor terrorists differ based on their ideologies or network connectivity. The analysis leads to seven conclusions. There was no uniform profile identified. In the time leading up to most lone‐actor terrorist events, other people generally knew about the offender's grievance, extremist ideology, views, and/or intent to engage in violence. A wide range of activities and experiences preceded lone actors' plots or events. Many but not all lone‐actor terrorists were socially isolated. Lone‐actor terrorists regularly engaged in a detectable and observable range of activities with a wider pressure group, social movement, or terrorist organization. Lone‐actor terrorist events were rarely sudden and impulsive. There were distinguishable behavioral differences between subgroups. The implications for policy conclude this article.     

Patterns of precursor behaviors in the life span of a U.S. environmental terrorist group

Research Summary
This article discusses the paucity of data available for assessing the "life span" of a terrorist group. It introduces a new methodology that allows researchers to examine when terrorist groups perform their preincident activities. The findings suggest that differences exist in the temporal patterns of terrorist groups: environmental terrorist groups engage in a relatively short planning cycle compared with right-wing and international terrorists. The article concludes by examining a case study on "the Family," which is a unique environmental terrorist group that conducted activities over a relatively long period of time. This group provides an interesting contrast to other environmental terrorists. Despite significant organizational differences, their patterns of preparatory conduct were highly similar.
Policy Implications
The findings suggest that (1) temporal and spatial data about preincident terrorist activity can be collected from unclassified and open sources and (2) law-enforcement agencies that are investigating environmental groups have relatively little time to observe and infiltrate their individual cells (compared with right-wing and international terrorists). Finally, the data suggest that environmental terrorists—at least so far—have engaged in attacks that are less deadly than the comparison groups.     

反恐怖行动中法律战的有效运用

在反恐怖行动中,为最大限度发挥法律战的功效,达到"师出有名""不战而屈人之兵"的目的,需要灵活运用法律战战法。本文从先声夺人,主动出击,占领法理道义的制高点;瞄准要害,针锋相对,增强法律打击的影响力;因势利导,有效防范,提高法律防护的针对性等三个方面,对反恐怖行动中如何有效运用法律战进行了探讨。     

运用刑法武器打击恐怖主义犯罪

武警部队处置恐怖事件,必须注重运用法律武器,彰显法律的力量。由于恐怖主义活动是一种严重的刑事犯罪,所以在对恐怖分子进行法律战时,刑法是一部必用的法律。在反恐法律战中,如果能够运用好刑法,完全可以为我方赢得战机,以期达到"不战而屈人之兵"的目的。     

德国近五十年刑事立法述评

自1969年德国刑法大改革至今的五十年间,德国的刑事立法活动非常频繁。在此期间,德国立法机关不但对《刑法典》总则犯罪论部分的规定进行了彻底的修订,而且针对犯罪的法律后果以及刑法分则乃至附属刑法中的诸多罪名进行了持续的改革,在恐怖主义犯罪、妨害公务犯罪、毒品犯罪以及保安监禁等领域尤其如此。整体而言,德国立法者在过往半个世纪中日趋侧重功能主义的积极刑事立法观,导致德国刑法逐步从传统法治国背景下的法益保护法和市民防御法转向以社会控制为主导的国家干预法和社会防卫法,造成了诸多难以与现有法律体系和学说理论相协调的象征性立法。我国应当从德国近五十年的刑事立法中吸收其先进经验,对其中的弊端也要引以为戒。     

占有的重新定性及其实践应用

在类型化占有产生形态的基础上，借用霍菲尔德的权利理论对占有的性质进行探讨具有一定价值。在法律不考虑其产生原因皆予以保护的意义上，占有具有事实属性；在考量其正当性保护基础的意义上，占有在具体的法律关系中又具有多样的权利属性。占有性质的重新理解能够使占有制度发挥更为丰富、有效的实践功能。     

恐怖组织认定模式之研究

当前,我国对恐怖组织事实上采取了司法认定和行政认定并存的模式,这种模式缺乏明确的法律依据与分工。在世界范围内,各国对恐怖组织的认定主要存在司法认定和行政认定两种模式,而我国刑法中除恐怖组织以外其他组织也存在司法认定和行政认定两种模式。从实际情况、人员配备,以及认定后果来看,我国应对恐怖组织采取行政认定模式,以达成刑法与反恐怖法的衔接。     

The terrorist mind: I. A psychological and political analysis

Part I of this two-part article describes the major forms of domestic and foreign terrorism, the motivations of the perpetrators, and the psychological, social, and political forces that contribute to this most particular expression of violence. The article addresses the question of whether all terrorists are sick or evil and considers the possibility that some forms of terrorism, however odious their result, can be a rational response to a situation of perceived intolerable injustice. The article examines what motivates people to join terrorist groups and what may later move them to leave the terrorist lifestyle. Special consideration is given to the psychological and religious dynamics of suicide terrorism and what might motivate some people to give their lives for their cause. Finally, the article offers recommendations for a multipronged approach to dealing with this modern yet ageless scourge.     

论认定恐怖主义组织之机构模式

从法律依据和认定主体的角度来分类,认定恐怖主义组织的机构模式主要有两种：一是司法认定模式;二是行政认定模式。前者是最基本的认定模式,后者是对前者的有益补充。中国显然采取行政认定模式作为有益的补充。参照外国的先进经验,中国关于恐怖主义组织的行政认定模式需在两个方面加以改进：一是构建严格的认定程序,要体现出认定程序的高法律层次性、详细性、全面性和正当性;二是增加司法审查程序,以保证认定行为的合法性与准确性。     

所有权返还请求权制度——以德国法为视角对《物权法》之反思

2007年《物权法》遗留了相当多的制度缺失和制度缺陷问题,例如所有权概念、所有权返还请求权制度建设问题。从所有权的概念入手,论述所有权中最重要的一项权能,即占有及以该项权能为对象的所有权返还请求权,指出我国的物权法应对所有权返还请求权进行明确规范。同时对于与所有权密切联系的另一个制度,即占有应进行进一步的规范。通过对所有权返还请求权的论述,得出结论,占有制度中的间接占有制度的引入对于保障所有权返还请求权必不可少。     

The Advent of Preventive Criminal Law: An Erosion of the Traditional Criminal Law?

Criminal law in contemporary societies is undergoing a transformation or according to some, even a paradigm shift. The reach of criminal law is now extended to terrains that were hitherto immune to criminalization. These new forms of criminalization. in post-heroic risk societies are targeting conduct well before it causes a harm. The prime examples of this preventive criminalization. are pre-inchoate offences, crimes of possession of “innocent” objects and crimes of abstract endangerment. The common trait of these offences is that they enable the so-called preponing criminal liability (Vorverlagerung), through which the earliest of preparatory acts, neutral, everyday activities such as merely standing around or merely possessing may well fall within the reach of criminal law. This phenomenon is now taking place virtually everywhere considered by many as an erosion of the traditional post-enlightenment criminal law model. Yet, proponents of the preventive criminal law are suggesting that such laws are needed in order to avert risks (terrorist attacks, for instance) while they are at preparation phase. There is, therefore, a tension between the traditional criminal law and new security interests that pose new questions which need to be addressed by a meticulous analysis. In this article I shall try to deal with following questions: Whether these preventive offences are inherently incompatible with the rule of law? How far a law-abiding nation can go in criminalizing preparatory acts? Are there any promising constraining constitutional principles or instances that delimit preventive criminalization?     

TERRORISM,POLITICS, AND PUNISHMENT: A TEST OF STRUCTURAL-CONTEXTUAL THEORY AND THE “LIBERATION HYPOTHESIS”*

The sentencing literature generally has been characterized by an inability to explain Significant amounts of the variance in sentencing outcomes. Two major theoretical explanations have addressed this issue: structural-contextual theory and the “liberation hypothesis.” Structural-contextual theory suggests that the components of the justice system traditionally work somewhat independently of one another. This theory suggests that variance explained in sentence outcomes will increase appreciably when components function with greater interdependence—a so-called “tightening” or “coupling” effect. Such tightening supposedly takes place when particular cases are given high priority for investigation and prosecution. An example of this situation might be domestic terrorism. The liberation hypothesis suggests that the greater the severity of an offense, the less likely judges or juries will feel free to follow their own sentiments regarding guilt and punishment. As a consequence, the ability of legal variables to predict variation in sentence length will be greater as crime severity increases. This study compares a sample of officially designated terrorists matched with nonterrorists convicted of the same federal offenses. OLS regression and structural equation modeling procedures are used to compare the levels of explained variance for the two groups. The results indicate strong support for the basic premises of both theories. Explained variance for the terrorist sample is more than four times greater than the explained variance for the nonterrorist sample. Further analysis shows that explained variance is highest for terrorists who have committed a high-severity offense and lowest for nonterrorists who have committed a low-severity offense. The subsequent addition of other predictor variables available only for the terrorist sample further increases the explained variance and provides additional support for the liberation hypothesis.     

The communicative impact of terrorist attacks on the financial marketplace: a perspective from the efficient market hypothesis

This study measures patterns following a terrorist attack, from the perspective of market efficiency, to determine the communicative impact of terrorist attacks on the financial marketplace. The Efficient Market Hypothesis postulates that asset prices fully reflect all available information. An important implication is that, because market price changes are determined by new information (or variations in discount rates), it would be highly difficult to “beat the market” with expert stock selection or market timing. Overall, we found that, based on mixed results, terrorist attacks do not lead to a distinguishable pattern in the financial marketplace. Nevertheless, drawing on the Yale Model of Persuasion, these results suggest that terrorists are effective in their communicative goals, and they do lead to a compelling pattern in the proportion of negative returns on the day of the attack. More precisely, terrorists are able to communicate their message on a global scale, thereby resulting in investors adjusting their estimates of value downward. While a possible price correction pattern was found, the lack of statistical analysis performed on the variables, to a certain degree of significance, is a limitation of this study that ultimately renders the results of the study inconclusive.

     

Eastern Turkistan Islamic Movement: a case study of a new terrorist organization in China

The Eastern Turkistan Islamic Movement (ETIM) was designated a terrorist organization by Afghanistan, Kyrgyzstan, China, the United States, and the United Nations in 2002. However, no systematic studies have been published on the new terrorist organization in Xinjiang, China. Using a case-study approach and interviews, this article attempts to provide information in terms of its historical evaluation, related religious and ethnic issues, organizational agenda, activities, and role in the current international terrorist network. This article argues that better international cooperation and the improvement of social and religious policies will help curtail activities of the ETIM.     

我国面临的国际恐怖犯罪现状与应对策略

国际恐怖主义犯罪是威胁当今国际社会安全的非传统安全因素,近年来,国际恐怖组织、个人,以及境内外“东突”恐怖势力、“藏独”恐怖势力、邪教恐怖势力,尤其是境内外“东突”及“藏独”势力的恐怖主义犯罪已经对我国构成了现实威胁。针对威胁,公安机关应积极推动我国反恐立法,完善反恐工作机制,参与国际反恐合作,重视情报、舆论引导和群众工作,加强安全防范和预案演练,以有效遏制和消除国际恐怖主义犯罪。     

Children at Risk: Legal and Societal Perceptions of the Potential Threat that the Possession of Child Pornography Poses to Society

This article examines legal and social discourses surrounding the phenomenon of child pornography, considering the legal responses to child pornography (particularly when an individual is found to be in possession of such material), and the way in which such material, the child, and the possessor of child pornography are socially constructed.
The article raises the question of whether there has been a moral panic regarding child pornography and the possession of such material, but also considers whether there are real reasons to consider that the possession of child pornography should remain illegal. Research studies which aim to establish the existence of a causal link between possessing child pornography and the act of committing child sexual abuse are examined, as is the argument that criminalizing the possession of child pornography reduces the market for such material. Finally, there is an analysis of the possible impact of social constructions of the child as innocent.     

The Impact of Technology and Communications upon International and Transnational Terrorism

The purpose of this inquiry is to examine the nature of terrorism, primarily in European and Western industrial nations. Specifically the article (1) examines the impact that has resulted from technological advances in communication and weapons and (2) discusses the necessity of international cooperation in the effort to defeat terrorism. The article documents that terrorism is a serious threat to Western democracies including the United States as well as an international threat. The conclusion of the article is that it has become more difficult to counter terrorism due to technological advances which have delivered greater destructive power into the hands of a few fanatics. The primary technological effects discussed are (1) those relating to communication which has enabled terrorists to establish a “world-wide network” and (2) the addition of toxins and nuclear weapons to the arsenal of the terrorist. As an international problem, however, the difficulty of countering terrorism is not rooted in the technological sophistication of the terrorist but in international disputes about the question, “what is terrorism”. Nations appear to be unable to mount an international assault against terrorism due to the great difficulty of arriving at a commonly accepted definition of terrorism. This article discusses the obstacles to defining terrorism encountered by the international community and the role that bilateral and multinational agreements have played in countering terrorism.     

Across the Sloping Meadow Floor: An Empirical Analysis of Preremoval Detention of Noncitizens

In many countries, the law permits state authorities to detain noncitizens before deportation. Typically judicial decisions about preremoval detention must be made within a short period of time during which deportable noncitizens are held in police premises, and depending on the country detention may last just one month (e.g., France) or up to 18 months (the Netherlands). While previous research has explored various dimensions of noncitizen detention including the legal procedure, health consequences, the condition of detention centers, and the lives of deportable noncitizens, the empirical assessment of the determinants of decisions on preremoval detention are largely unexplored. Using data from court proceedings of police petitions of detention in Spain and a quantitative strategy, in this article we undertake an empirical analysis of noncitizen detention combining personal background of deportable noncitizens, legal factors of the case, and the behavior of different actors involved in the procedure. To do it, we fit models that take into account variation occurred at judicial district levels. Results indicate, on the one hand, that relevant actors involved in the procedure use different informational cues to decide on cases. On the other hand, the role of prosecutors and attorneys during hearings proves also relevant to predict detention.     

Lone Actor Terrorist Attack Planning and Preparation: A Data‐Driven Analysis,

This article provides an in‐depth assessment of lone actor terrorists’ attack planning and preparation. A codebook of 198 variables related to different aspects of pre‐attack behavior is applied to a sample of 55 lone actor terrorists. Data were drawn from open‐source materials and complemented where possible with primary sources. Most lone actors are not highly lethal or surreptitious attackers. They are generally poor at maintaining operational security, leak their motivations and capabilities in numerous ways, and generally do so months and even years before an attack. Moreover, the “loneness” thought to define this type of terrorism is generally absent; most lone actors uphold social ties that are crucial to their adoption and maintenance of the motivation and capability to commit terrorist violence. The results offer concrete input for those working to detect and prevent this form of terrorism and argue for a re‐evaluation of the “lone actor” concept.