菲律宾与印尼军人政治参与的比较

印度尼西亚与菲律宾是有着相似历史和相同政体的东南亚国家,军人在政治生活中起着重要作用是两国政治的共同特点.但由于国家独立过程和两国文化等的差异,两国军人政治又呈现出不同的发展态势.本文主要分三个历史阶段对两国军人政治参与进行比较分析,并对军人干政的共性进行了总结.     

普力夺社会视角下的当代埃及军人干政

从1952年革命到近年来的埃及变局，军人一直在埃及政坛中发挥着关键性的作用。军人干政已成为埃及现代化进程中一个不容忽视的现象。究其根本，乃是埃及仍处于泛政治化的普力夺社会结构之中，从而为军人干政提供了合适的温床。本文旨在借助政治学中的“普力夺”（Prae—tofian）社会理论，对当代埃及不同时期中的军人干政现象做出原...     

缅甸政治体制:特点、根源及趋势

军人发动军事政变建立军人政权,这是第三世界国家政治发展进程中的一个普遍现象。据统计:目前世界有53个军人执政的国家。一般来说,军人执政国家政治体制的发展具有如下几个共同规律:1)政治纲领和主张变化无常;2)长期政局不稳和政治、社会动乱;3)政权更替的主要方式是军事政变。但是缅甸的奈温人政权却表现出自己的特殊性。首先,奈温政权长期奉行缅甸式社会主义,且一直旗帜不倒;其次,缅甸政局自1962年奈     

1976年泰国大规模流血军事政变的 前因后果与其一项见证

国家稳定和社会发展是大多数发展中国家的双重难题,泰国也不例外.泰国社会的基本问题主要包括思想领域的冲突、 各种政治势力的斗争、 根深蒂固和无处不在的腐败等等.在泰国政治中,战后初期(1945—1958年)是一个关键的转变阶段,从先前的威权宪政体制(1932—1947年)转变成此后的军事专制体制(1958—1973年).20世纪50年代,学生在泰国国家政治中开始发挥重要作用,继而在60年代后期和70年代初期成为一股强大的力量.与此同时,国民议会内所有政党之间的相互争斗被视为泰国政体的一个显著弊端,它很快便成为泰国政府被贴上"不稳定"标签的最明显原因.1932年往后,泰国有10余次政变和政变图谋,而1976年10月6日,军事政变是右翼势力合乎逻辑的一次最激烈反应,而此次政变针对的是三年前学生领导的、 作为宪政高潮的"十月革命".1976年的军事政变虽然结束了此前三年混乱的开放式政治实验,但其暴烈程度实属空前,政治意义异常重大.概而言之,20世纪60和70年代的学生、 政党和以军人集团为首的右翼势力都以它们各自不同的行为,肇始了当代泰国政治不幸的动荡传统.笔者在系统分析的基础上,通过详细访谈,展现当年一位参加过学生运动以及后来的反抗活动的人士的心路历程,了解他对泰国政治和泰国社会的一些看法,借以印证、 补充或加强对泰国政治和泰国社会的分析和看法.     

泰国政治发展的社会学分析--结构变化、精英选择与政治发展

1932年以来,泰国社会结构的变化为人们理解其政治发展提供了一个很好的线索.长时间的以小农主导地位、以保护人-被保护人关系为主要特征的社会结构为泰国军人统治提供了基础.而工商集团的逐渐崛起及其对权利和政治参与的要求,消解了军人专制统治的基础,加大了军人统治的成本,推动着军人统治逐渐放松对社会的控制,成为泰国民主政治发展的一个重要动力.而泰国精英对民主价值的选择和坚定追求则成为泰国社会结构变化推动民主政治发展的转换枢纽,直接推动了泰国民主政治的发展.     

泰国民主政治：现状与问题

泰国民主化进程至今虽已 70年 ,但长期的军人干政使民主政治的发展一度受阻。 2 0世纪末随着军人势力的退出 ,民主政治再次获得发展 ,并在 1 997年颁布了具有里程碑意义的新宪法。本文就泰国民主政治的发展现状与问题进行了分析     

转型时期泰国政治力量的结构分析

在发展中国家由传统社会向民主化转型过程中,国家政治力量结构呈现出新旧交替、传统与现代的博弈局面.作为国家政治结构的主要力量,官僚阶层、军队与政党之间存在着一种动态的三角关系.在泰国的政治结构中,官僚阶层是基本的和不变的常量,军队始终发挥着重要的干预变量角色,而政党是一种集合性变量.本文通过分析泰国三大政治力量的结构及相互关系,推演出泰国现当代政治格局发展的基本规律.     

二战后东亚学生运动的生成与意义

东亚国家的学生运动主要有"民主学生运"、"爱国学生运动"和"维护自身权益的学生运动"三种类型.大学生群体人数增多、社会不平等现象加剧、合法参与渠道的缺乏和中产阶级政治作为的不足,是导致发展中国家民主学生运动发生的主要原因.在东亚国家的政治现代化进程中,学生团体成为先进政治力量,学生运动在社会政治变革中起到重要引领和推动作用.     

缅甸军人与政治关系的现状与趋势

在从1948年1月4日独立至今的68年间,缅甸军人直接掌权或由其扶持的政党执政的时间共约56年。2015年11月8日,昂山素季领导的全国民主联盟在大选中获得压倒性胜利,军方扶持的联邦巩固与发展党惨败。2016年3月30日,民盟资深成员吴廷觉总统领导的新政府宣誓就职,取代退役将领吴登盛领导的巩发党政府。缅甸军人长期直接或间接执政的历史暂告结束,这是缅甸民主转型的里程碑。但依照缅甸宪法,军人仍保留诸多权力,是与民盟政府并立的另一权力中心,军人与民盟政府关系好坏将是影响缅甸政治发展的关键因素。缅甸军人完全退出政治尚需时日,不排除其再度干政的可能。     

二战后东亚学生运动的生成与意义

东亚国家的学生运动主要有民主学生运动、爱国学生运动和维护自身权益的学生运动三种类型。大学生群体人数增多、社会不平等现象加剧、合法参与渠道的缺乏和中产阶级政治作为的不足,是导致发展中国家民主学生运动发生的主要原因。在东亚国家的政治现代化进程中,学生团体成为先进政治力量,学生运动在社会政治变革中起到重要引领和推动作用。     

他信政府的危机及其启示

今年年初以来,泰国政坛发生了一场政治危机。本文首先回顾了此次泰国他信政府政治危机的由来与发展过程,然后分析为什么颇有作为和成就的他信政府会面临一场自1992年以来大规模的反政府示威活动,最后作者试图从这场危机中找出一些令人深思的教益。     

The coup d'état in Spain: from the anti-liberal movements to the democratic revolution, 1814–1874

SUMMARY

In this article Mikel Urquijo seeks to explain the evolution of the coup d'état as a feature of the political history of Spain in the nineteenth century. The repeated interventions based on the armed forces, with a greater or lesser contribution from the civilian politicians, are seen as the method by which some alternation in government between the political factions was made possible. The article traces the development from the purely military coup, or pronunciamiento of the early years, intended to exclude civilian politicians, to the mixed coups of the mid-century. In the absence of a truly democratic political system, or a developed national and civic consciousness, in a system where the ruling party could decide the outcome of elections by executive action, the coup was the accepted method of changing the regime. But the increasing participation of civilian politicians in the process culminated in the coup of 1868, which had some of the characteristics of a democratic revolution, and overthrew for a time the Bourbon monarchy. This represents a true civic-military coup d'état.     

澳大利亚孟席斯政府卷入越南战争的原因分析

澳大利亚政府是在越南战争期间积极支持美国的军事行动的西方国家之一,对于其出兵越南的原因一直存在争论.本文认为,国内特殊的政治环境、基于前进防御战略的国家安全需要、相关信息的匮乏以及澳大利亚当时所处的特殊国际环境等一系列因素促使澳大利亚政府向越南派遣军事顾问以及最后部署大量军队协助美国在印支地区的作战.越南战争的失败促使澳大利亚重新反思其亚洲政策,并逐渐加强了其与亚洲在经济、政治和文化领域的交流.     

‘Unarmed’ We Intervene,Unnoticed We Remain: The Deviant Case of ‘February 28th Coup’ in Turkey

When a military staged an intervention during the Cold War, students of civil-military relations could quite easily tell if it was a coup d’état. This no longer seems to be the case. The reason may be the regnant understanding of coup d’état as a violent (bloody), swift, and extralegal/extra-constitutional seizure of power by first and foremost military officers or members of state apparatus after a long time of secret planning. This article takes stock of political complexities surrounding coups in our times by studying the nationally and internationally neglected case of February 28^th (1997) coup process in Turkey as a ‘deviant case’, based on newly-revealed military documents as primary sources and several previously unstudied memoirs by army officers of the period. It argues that the February 28^th coup was deliberately stretched over a long process, it was violent but not bloody, was staged almost openly through ‘theoretically constitutional political operations’ and psychological warfare against the elected government. Several select ‘civilian’ groups from the media, judiciary, trade unions, and non-governmental organisations were happily enlisted by the military as active participants in the coup caravan and without them as unique and pioneering a coup as the February 28^th could not be executed.     

Doing Politics in a Depoliticised Society: Social Change and Political Deactivation in Chile

This article explores the process of political deactivation in Chile which has taken place since the military coup of 1973. Its stresses a series of political, social and cultural factors which have produced an increasing depoliticisation of the Chilean population under both the Pinochet regime and the current Concertaciòn governments. The forced depoliticisation generated by repression and fears under the military government marked the genesis of political deactivation. Since the late 1970s the marketisation of Chilean society and its increased consumerist orientation have weakened even further the readiness and interest among Chilean citizens to participate actively in party politics. In addition, in recent years politicians and politics in general have experienced in Chile a growing decrease of prestige and credibility. The media, and particularly the television, have become the main arenas in which new style politicians sell their electoral products to a depoliticised mass who expect quick and concrete solutions to their particular problems and demands.     

The Military: A Threat to Democracy?

The military is by its very nature a potential threat to democracy, but in well-established democracies civilian supremacy has generally been maintained, though there are dangers of excessive military influence. S. E. Finer's seminal 1962 study of civil-military relations distinguished between the modes and effectiveness of civilian control in mature, developed and low or minimal political cultures. These categories are distinguished in particular by varying degrees of political legitimacy. Finer's conclusion about the prospects for political stability and democracy in most developing countries was pessimistic. But Finer's conclusions can now be challenged, primarily because the nature of civil-military relations has changed. In mature political cultures like the USA, the threat from the military-industrial complex has receded. Japan, Germany or France — key examples in Finer's second category — have now become mature political cultures; and Russia (newly in this category) is not, despite its many problems, threatened by direct military intervention. Many countries previously classified within low political culture have moved into the second category, and despite some notable exceptions the military have become more cautious about taking responsibility for government.     

Populism and Peasant Iconography: Turkish painting in the 1930s

The Six Day War is renowned for its impact on the shaping of the Middle East. In the last few decades, much research examining the reasons for the outbreak of the Six Day War, its development and its ramifications has been published. Most of the research has focused on an examination of Israeli government policy before and after the war, on the Egyptian regime's hatred of the ‘Zionist entity’ and on the involvement of the superpowers during and after the war. Some research has also touched on Syria's role in the outbreak of the war. Researchers such as Eyal Zisser and Moshe Maoz have shown Syria's decisive role in initiating the war and suggest that various factors, such as a lack of government stability in Syria, precipitated the conflict. This research continues, to a great extent, in the line of those researchers: indeed, it points to Syria as being the main factor behind the outbreak of war through an examination of the changes that occurred in the character of its government from 1966. However, unlike other research so far, this attempts to show that the unique character of the neo-Ba'ath regime is what brought war to the region and that, had the Ba'ath coup not occurred in 1966, it is doubtful whether Syria would have entered the conflict. This article seeks to emphasize that the Syrian regime went blindly into the war despite military unpreparedness and a lack of political and military cooperation with other Arab countries and with the Soviets. It also exposes, for the first time, the state of the Syrian troops on the front and in the cities, as well as the feelings of the senior officers on the eve of the war, and reveals documents about the military and political cooperation between Syria and Egypt that would eventually force President Nasser to enter a war he did not want to get involved in. Moreover, the research exposes the deep rift – which many believe pushed Syria to take rash independent measures –between the Soviet leadership and the Ba'ath regime before the war. And, finally, the research exposes the atmosphere in Syria following the war, and the administrative and military steps the Syrian regime took immediately after the defeat in order to consolidate its power.     

台湾海归与台湾政治

对20世纪80年代以来台湾历任最高领导人及各部委第一负责人最高学历的分析统计显示,在美国、欧洲地区各国及日本名校获得高学历之海归人士,已经构成台湾政坛的精英主体。本文梳理台湾政坛海归的基本构成、比例及影响,剖析台湾海归在台湾政治中具有的特殊软实力,同时也指出他们的政治软肋,评介台湾当局成文与不成文的相关政策法规,深化对海归参政之现实意义的认识。     

The 15 July abortive coup and post-truth politics in Turkey

Contemporary developments throughout the world have been marked by post-truth politics. Epitomized by a disregard for truth coupled with a reliance on emotive arguments, the term ‘post-truth politics’ has not yet been adequately reflected upon by political or social theory. This article uses Turkey’s 15 July (2016) abortive coup as an entry point to address this gap and argues that the post-truth has altered both the grammar and vocabulary of politics. The term denotes the contemporary shift from a ‘regime of truth’ to a ‘regime of common sense’, which also operates as the discursive ground of new populisms. While treating three contending narratives of 15 July – ‘kamikaze coup’, ‘staged coup’ and ‘controlled coup’ – this article focuses on the post-truth elements in the government’s narrative performance that obstructed the pursuit of truth and set the conditions for a particular interpretation of the events of 15 July.