试论东盟对建立亚太安全体制的影响

冷战结束至今,亚太地区尚未形成自己的安全体制.目前亚太地区安全体制面临集体安全和合作安全两种模式的选择,而合作安全体制模式更符合亚太地区的现实.东盟地区论坛是亚太地区多边合作安全体制的雏形.东盟将对未来亚太安全体制的行为准则、决策程序、运作方式和目标产生独特的影响,并打下深深的烙印.     

美国和东盟地区论坛——多边主义的视角

本文从多边主义视角对美国对待亚太多边安全合作的态度、动机与行为进行了分析.冷战后亚太地区多边安全合作最重要的成果是东盟地区论坛,它是该地区成员安全利益需求的结果.亚太地区的安全多边主义主要依靠规范的力量发挥作用,缺乏有效的物质能力和制度保障来解决美国所关切的地区安全问题.况且,美国只是将多边主义作为服务于安全利益的工具性手段,而不是秩序目标之一,这决定了美国不大可能对亚太多边安全合作寄予较高的期望.     

冷战后美日关系的变化及其影响

冷战结束后 ,国际关系格局发生了巨大变化 ,美日关系也随之加以调整 ,由初期注重经济关系到中后期注重安全合作关系 ,美日同盟关系的加强 ,对亚太地区的和平与安全产生消极影响。     

21世纪初东亚合作问题

在经济方面 ,东亚必须加强区域内合作 ,尤其是东北亚与东南亚以及中日之间的合作 ,同时还要妥善处理与美、欧以及其他地区的关系。在安全方面 ,东亚已通过东盟地区论坛等途径建立了对话与合作的基础 ,而非传统安全的威胁则导致东亚合作安全新理念的逐步形成。此外 ,在东亚已经出现的集体认同趋势也将对东亚合作产生深刻的影响。     

从《日本的安全政策与东盟地区论坛》看多边主义的困境

2007年4月,鲁特兰奇(Routledge)公司出版了汤泽武(Takeshi Yuzawa)的专著--<日本的安全政策与东盟地区论坛:寻求亚太地区多边安全>(Japan's Security Policy and the ASEAN Regional Forum: The Search for Multilateral Security in the Asia-Pacific),作者以日本对东盟地区论坛(ARF)政策的缘起、演变为案例,分析了日本的地区安全政策以及对多边主义的态度.     

地区安全机制比较:东南亚和东北亚

冷战结束后 ,东亚地区成为特别引人注目的地区。在东南亚 ,东盟不断发展壮大 ,影响日盛 ,东盟地区论坛以多边安全对话的形式成为地区很有影响的安全对话模式。在东北亚 ,大国特别集中 ,形成一种大国博弈结构 ,以双边安全对话为主 ,难以形成有效的多边安全合作机制。本文结合冷战后东亚中的东南亚和东北亚两个地区的安全形势的新特点 ,分析比较了这两个地区安全机制的不同 ,并对前景加以推测。     

参与、接受与建构——以1997—2005年中国参与东盟地区论坛的规范建构为例

在1997年到2005年的8年中,中国全面积极参与东盟地区论坛,在第一轨道和第二轨道的外交活动中,不断提出积极有效的建设性提案,推动了地区规范和秩序的建构,为论坛的发展和地区安全合作机制建设做出了重要贡献.中国全面参与东盟地区论坛建构进程,是对东盟方式接受的基础上自身负责任大国身份确立的结果.     

美日同盟的新一轮强化:内容、动因及前景

2015年4月底,美国和日本签署新版《美日防卫合作指针》,这是冷战后美日同盟强化的一个标志性节点。美日不仅更新了同盟的主要目标,更显著拓展了两国安全合作的范围和层次。美日战略目标和政策方针高度契合是美日同盟强化的主要原因。奥巴马政府推行的"亚太再平衡"战略与安倍政权鼓吹的"积极和平主义"需要两国相互配合与支持,这使新形势下强化美日同盟具有必然性和稳定性。然而,美日两国的国家利益和政策导向也在一些关键领域存在分歧。     

冷战后东盟地区主义的发展与日本的应对

冷战后,东盟地区主义迅速发展。这不仅表现在东盟实现了大东盟的愿望,加强了东盟地区内部的各种合作,而且突出表现在东盟积极推动东亚合作和东亚一体化进程。在推动东亚合作和东亚一体化进程中,东盟对东亚地区唯一的发达国家日本寄予了厚望,但日本的表现与东盟的期待存在很大的反差。东盟和日本在东亚地区主义理念上的分歧是这一反差产生的根本原因。     

日越海洋安全合作的演进:战略考量与挑战

2007年日越首脑联合声明发布后,两国海洋安全合作步入正轨。除了在东盟地区论坛等多边框架下开展一系列合作外,日越在双边框架内不断完善首脑与高官互访、对话机制,在实务部门的交流与海洋安全能力建设等方面的合作也取得了重要进展。日越海洋安全合作既是日本与越南推进彼此海洋安全战略、固化本国既得非法海洋权益的需要,也是在亚太"轮辐体系"变革背景下,日本呼应美国战略、协助美国维持亚太安全秩序的客观要求。然而,由于越南在经济上对中日的"双重依赖"、日越意识形态与社会制度的差异、两国合作外部动因减弱等因素,未来两国海洋安全合作的势头将受到一定的影响。     

Locating Kaliningrad And KÖNigsberg In Russian And German Collective Identity Discourses And Political Symbolism In The 750Th Anniversary Celebrations Of 2005

This article begins by briefly exploring issues of conflict and control in relation to the 750th anniversary of the city of Kaliningrad/Königsberg. An analysis of the tensions between Russian regional (Kaliningrad) and national (federal) identity discourses on the political symbolism of the 750th anniversary commemoration is offered, using Russian media reports and interviews conducted in Kaliningrad. German narratives on the political symbolism of the anniversary events and their implications for German national identity discourses are investigated via interviews conducted in Kaliningrad and Germany, German media reports, books, films and a theater production about Königsberg. Particular attention is given to the impact of the German expellee organizations on framing the discourse about Königsberg in contemporary Germany. The article will conclude by comparing and contrasting the various discourses and interpretations of the anniversary in the Kaliningrad region, Russia and Germany.     

'Adorned with the Mix of Faith and Profanity that Intoxicates the People': The Festival of the Senhor do Bonfim in Salvador, Bahia, Brazil, 1930–19541

This essay looks at a formative period in the history of the festival of the Senhor do Bonfim, one of Salvador's most important religious festivals. The essay focuses on the public ritual washing of the Church of Bonfim and the tensions between the Catholic Church, who periodically banned the washing from the larger festival, and a variety of historical actors including politicians, journalists, authors and working-class Salvadorans whose efforts eventually contributed to the lifting of the prohibition once and for all in 1953. The author suggests that the defence of the washing both reflected and contributed to a larger hegemonic process taking place in Salvador after 1930, as actors within Salvador's dominant class accepted and even praised Afro-Bahian cultural practices, including them as integral parts of a larger Bahian identity.     

The FBI's Role in Expelling Germans from Ecuador During the 1940s

The expulsion from Latin America of immigrants from axis countries and their descendants is an important but little‐studied episode of the Second World War. The role of the US, and in particular that of the Federal Bureau of Investigation (FBI), in their removal has largely disappeared from historical memory. This article examines how the FBI advanced US commercial interests, and in the process harmed vulnerable people who were subject to these expulsions.     

INDIA’S DEMONETISATION: MODI’S ‘NUDGE’ TO CHANGE ECONOMIC AND SOCIAL BEHAVIOUR

This article offers an account of the impact of Indian PM Narendra Modi’s decision in November 2016 to withdraw suddenly all Rs 500 and Rs 1000 notes from circulation in India with the avowed intent of combatting fraud, tax avoidance and other economic problems. The article assesses the impact from the demonetisation in November to the March 2017 Indian regional elections, where wide-scale victories for Modi’s political party, the BJP, appear to have vindicated his reforms. The article provides an analysis of the political background of the period, as well as looking at the economic and societal impact of the changes, including the way in which the behaviour of Indian citizens has been ‘nudged’ with particular regard to use of banking, transactions, social effects, and payment of tax.     

The Health of the Rurality: The Encuesta de Folklore and Popular Healing Practices in Tucumán, 1921

This article examines healing practices among the rural inhabitants of Tucumán in the opening quarter of the twentieth century through a reading of the 1921 National Folklore Survey. It argues that popular medical practices, referred to as curanderismos (popular healing), continued into the twentieth century not only as cultural practice of the popular classes but as necessity due to limited investments in public health in the rural regions on the part of the national and provincial government.     

DROUGHT: THE ACHILLES HEEL OF THE ISLAMIC REPUBLIC OF IRAN

Approximately 97% of the country is experiencing drought conditions. Due to gross water mismanagement and its damaging impact on the country, Iran faces the worst situation in water resources of any industrialized nation. Tens of thousands of villages have been deserted and most of the major urban centers have passed their limits to absorb new rural migrants. Some officials predict that in less than 25 years, 50 million Iranians would be displaced from their current homes because of the pressing ecological conditions. This is happening at the time that the gap between the grassroots and the state has widened and there is increasing dissatisfaction with governance plagued by corruption, nepotism, economic mismanagement, unaccountability and a foreign policy which has produced various regional and trans-regional adversaries. This paper evaluates the pressing ecological challenges in Iran and by conceptualizing political resilience it critically evaluates whether the Islamic Republic is prepared to face the devastating ecological crisis and its socio-economic consequences.