Voting for peace,mobilizing for war: post-conflict voter turnout and civil war recurrence

In democratic elections around the world, high levels of voter turnout are frequently praised as a sign of democratic legitimacy and consolidation. However, while popular participation should be lauded in many circumstances, under certain conditions it can also have nefarious side effects. In post-conflict countries, high levels of voter turnout may make it easier for militants to return to arms because everyday people are invested in the political process and the electoral outcome. Through the use of survival modelling, this study finds that voter turnout is positively correlated with civil war recidivism in post-conflict first elections. Even when elections are not particularly contentious or when structural factors (such as level of development) are auspicious, voter turnout continues to have a positive and statistically significant relationship with recidivism.     

印度选举制度初探

与中国一样 ,印度是一个举世闻名的文明古国、文化大国 ,在当代国际政治、经济环境中 ,两个伟大的国家正面临着越来越多的相似性。但与中国不同的是 ,印度是联邦制国家 ,独立后继承了英国殖民主义者遗留下来的议会民主制 ,这使印度的传统文明、传统文化打上了“深深的西方烙印”①。在议会民主制之下 ,政府拥有议会制度 ,其核心是承诺举行定期、自由和公正选举的选举制度。这个选举制度决定政府的组成、议会两院的席位、邦立法会和联邦议会 ,以及总统和副总统。因此 ,了解印度选举制度的基本内容和特点 ,对于理解印度的议会民主制度具有重要…     

Mobilizing Millennial Voters with Targeted Internet Advertisements: A Field Experiment

Internet advertisements have come under tremendous scrutiny recently for their potential to impact electoral outcomes. However, academic research has yet to determine if they have an effect on turnout. This article presents the results of a preregistered field experiment conducted in Dallas, Texas, in partnership with The Dallas Morning News in which individually targeted banner ads were able to generate a statistically significant increase in turnout among Millennial voters in a municipal election. The results show that a combination of information and voting reminder ads was effective, but only for voters in competitive districts. Estimated treatment effects were on par with a telephone mobilization campaign using live callers. These findings contribute to theoretical knowledge about the role of political knowledge and electoral competitiveness in voter mobilization, and offer a new method for testing online advertisements used by political campaigns.     

A New Typology of Electoral Violence: Insights from Indonesia

ABSTRACT

Existing literature on election violence has focused on how violence suppresses voter participation or shapes their preferences. Yet, there are other targets of election violence beyond voters who have so far received little attention: candidates and government agencies. By intimidating rival candidates into dropping out of the race, political hopefuls can literally reduce the number of competitors and increase their likelihood of winning. Likewise, aspiring candidates can target government agencies perceived to be responsible for holding elections to push for electorally beneficial decisions. In this paper, we introduce a new typology of electoral violence and utilize new data of election violence that occur around executive elections in Indonesia from 2005 through 2012. The types of violence we identified differ in these ways: a) Of all cases of electoral violence observed in this article, most incidents were targeted towards candidates and government bodies; b) candidates are generally targeted before elections, whereas voter-targeting incidents are spread out evenly before and after elections and government-targeted violence tends to occur afterwards; c) pre-election violence is concentrated in formerly separatist areas, but post-election violence is more common in districts with prior ethnocommunal violence. These distinctions stress the importance of examining when and why different strategies are adopted.     

Why do they vote out of habit? Habitual voting under diverse regimes in East Asia

While scholars have shed light on our understanding of elections in less and non-democratic countries, the incentives behind electoral participation in these countries remain unexplored. This paper sets out to investigate how regime structure is associated with voters' incentives of habitual voting. We assert that the formation of voting habits is associated with the relationships of citizens with the state and their expectations about it. Thus, habitual voting reflects voters' understandings about, perceptions of, and concerns with their political environment and system. In democracy, habituated voting behavior is strongly associated with respondents' support for the regime because their sense of civic duty encourages them to vote. In authoritarian regimes, knowing that their ballots are the adornments of the authoritarian government, habitual voting simply reveals citizens' short-term support for the government or their concerns with the vertical accountability of the government. We further test the hypotheses against Asian Barometer Survey data and the analysis evidences our assumptions.     

SYRIZA's Electoral Victory in Greek Thrace: Impact of Muslim Minority Vote in the Changing Political System

This article, based on the link between institutional changes and voter behavior, focusing mainly on the 2015 parliamentary elections in Greece and the SYRIZA party's success in Greek Thrace, aims to understand why the Muslim minority voted significantly for SYRIZA and how they managed to send four Muslim representatives to the Greek Parliament, three of them from the same party. The article argues that, although there is massive support for radical-left SYRIZA due to its electoral promises to improve social services in addition to the party's rational candidate nomination, this support reflects a mixture of sociological and issue-voting behavior of the Muslim minority related to their motivation for political representation rather than an ideological shift. The changing political system in Greece since 2012, from a two-party to a multiparty system with decreasing voter turnout, increased the impact of the Muslim vote on electoral results in the September and January 2015 elections; however, it also increased social tension between the majority and the minority.     

When government fails us: trust in post-socialist civil organizations

The research for this article was motivated by a noticeable discrepancy between levels of participation and trust in post-socialist civil organizations. While civic participation in Central and Eastern Europe is almost nonexistent, levels of trust in post-socialist civil organizations compare favourably to those in Western Europe. The first aim of this article is to understand why citizens place relatively high trust in post-socialist civil organizations. The political context, within which civil organizations operate, reveals one explanation for the high levels of trust in civil organizations: government corruption dissuades citizens from relying on state institutions and creates a void that is filled by informal networks of association and civil organizations. Empirical evidence demonstrates that trust in civil organizations focused on socioeconomic and political development is higher among citizens who express concern about corruption in their country. The second aim of this article is to understand the discrepancy between levels of trust and civic participation. A novel interpretation of past findings suggests that civil organizations' effectiveness, professionalization, transactional capacity and orientation toward service provision may garner citizens' trust while parallel neglect of grassroots mobilization leaves civil organizations short of capitalizing on that trust. Civil organizations' limited focus on interest aggregation, mobilization and representation raises doubts as to whether observers of civil society in the region should look to these organizations as its core component.     

Elections and democratization in Honduras since 1980

Although Central America returned to electoral rule during the 1980s, lack of participation, political violence and militarization meant that democracy remained decidedly limited. This articles outlines the particularities of the transition to constitutional government for the case of Honduras, and examines the role of successive electoral processes on prospects for democratic consolidation, focusing on the relationship between electoral processes and the nature of the party system. It is maintained here that whilst the longevity of the bipartisan system has been an important element of stability, the nature of the two dominant parties (Liberal and National) has hindered the consolidation of a more democratic politics. However, the article also argues that successive elections have been the catalyst for limited modernization of the party system and have increased citizenship confidence in the electoral process, and that this ‐together with a gradual reduction in the influence of the military ‐ has strengthened future prospects for deepening democracy. None the less, the article concludes that unless a new relationship is established between political parties and civil society to ensure a more representative and participatory form of politics, democracy will remain limited in Honduras.     

Local factions and the Kuomintang in Taiwan's electoral politics

Local factions in Taiwan exert considerable influence over elections,facilitating their role as intermediaries in both the candidateselection process and grassroots voter mobilization. This studyexamines the tangled relationship between the Kuomintang (KMT)and local factions in the electoral process. For decades, theKMT used patronage to ally itself with local factions to maintainits dominance in elections and to legitimize its governing base.Its monopoly over economic privilege permitted the authoritarianKMT regime to construct electoral alliances with local factionsby sharing political power and material benefits with them inexchange for their KMT allegiance. Although factional allegiancesserve the interests of the KMT, its alliance bonds are far frompermanent. Change in electoral politics, then, is one of thebest vantage points from which to observe the transformed relationshipbetween the KMT and local factions. Furthermore, due to itsflourishing economic relationship with mainland China sincethe late 1980s, the Taiwan government has come under pressurefrom local factions to adopt more liberal trade policies towardChina. This research concludes that factionalism should remainan important component in Taiwan's political and economic arenasfor the foreseeable future.     

Electoral violence during party primaries in Kenya

ABSTRACT

Since the restoration of multi-party democracy in Kenya in 1991, elections have witnessed intra-party violence during the primaries for selecting parliamentary and civic seats candidates. This article addresses the question of why electoral violence occurs during party primaries in Kenya and argues that violence is an outcome of the organization of political parties, which has revolved around personalities identified with ethno-regional interests rather than institutionalism. The upshot has been the absence of party institutionalization to establish structures for recruitment of members and organization of primaries. Such organizational weaknesses have denied parties the capacity to match the intense competition for tickets of ethno-regional dominant parties that guarantees nominees to win seats in their strongholds. Intra-party violence has followed. The article submits that intra-party electoral violence in Kenya is a function of the politics of clientelism and ethnicity, both of which have severely hampered the institutionalization of political parties and their capacity to cope with the stiff competition for the tickets of ethno-regional dominant parties.     

Political decentralization and the strengthening of consensual,participatory local democracy in the Republic of Macedonia

This article examines whether decentralization in the Republic of Macedonia has contributed to widening effective political participation and strengthening democracy at the local level between 2005 and 2012. It begins by demonstrating the debate regarding political decentralization and its ability to mitigate ethnic conflict by facilitating the effective participation of national minorities in local institutions. An assessment of the largely consociational power-sharing mechanisms envisaged locally then determines whether decentralization has contributed to: improving the political representation of diverse groups in local decision-making processes; deepening local democracy by providing opportunities for residents to participate in local governance; and enhancing the transparency, accountability, and responsiveness of municipal governments. The opportunities Macedonian citizens have for participating directly in local decision-making processes are also evaluated. This article argues that whilst political decentralization has expanded the potential space available for citizens to participate in local governance, it has not guaranteed the participation of local communities, or that their participation is both equitable and effective. Advocates of decentralization have failed to sufficiently appreciate the extent to which the over-dominance of some political parties, which lack internal democracy, along with the pervasiveness of patronage-based politics, may undermine the reform's potential benefits.     

Democracy and the Recasting of Caste in India

The three books under review offer a fascinating account of how the processes of democracy and the practices of the modern Indian state have refashioned caste as an important feature of social stratification and self-definition. But the implication of the recasting of caste varies in the three accounts. According to Zoya Hasan, caste is an important marker of socio-economic backwardness and the policies of affirmative action that are based on this disadvantage should be extended to minorities. For Lucia Michelutti, electoral politics has refashioned caste into ethnic groups. The ethnicization of caste is premised on the horizontal solidarities of fictive kin groups. For Anupama Rao, the politics of dalit emacipation from caste atrocities has paradoxically exposed dalits to further acts of violence. Together, these books offer a compelling account of the formation of political subjects in modern India.     

The election of women under proportional representation: The case of Malta

It has often been noted that women's opportunities for a legislative career are enhanced in countries using proportional representation. But in Malta, which uses a variant of proportional representation, there are fewer women in parliament than in any other Western democracy. A detailed analysis of voting data shows that what accounts for the paucity of women legislators in Malta is not a shortage of ballot positions; nor a lack of qualified women candidates; nor significant voter prejudice against female candidates. Rather, Malta's exceptional performance results from the unwillingness or inability of party elites to recruit a substantial number of women candidates, even though voting patterns create an incentive for political parties to maximize the number of candidates. Since the cause of this failure to mobilize more women candidates can be ascribed neither to the workings of the electoral system nor to voter behaviour, it will have to be sought in contextual factors that still work to stifle women's political careers. Malta's experience serves as a caution against optimistic expectations that the adoption of proportional representation will lead to greater legislative opportunities for women.     

Political entrepreneurs,clientelism, and civil society: supply-side politics in Turkey

How do citizens in developing democracies launch political careers? Despite the large literature on electoral politics in developing countries, we know surprisingly little about how individuals become political candidates. This article examines an important mechanism of political recruitment in developing democracies: party-civil society organization (CSO) linkages. Existing theories treat CSOs as arenas of civic participation rather than as political agents in their own right, which leads scholars to overlook their impact on electoral competition. This article argues that the distinct resource portfolios of CSOs influence their relative impact on candidate selection, and consequently, local politics. CSOs that represent the material interests of their constituents, such as resource-rich business groups and vote-rich identity groups, have significant influence over candidate selection. Issue-oriented CSOs tend to have less impact. Party-CSO relations often facilitate clientelist linkages between parties and voters, weakening democratic governance. Evidence is provided with an in-depth case study of CSO-political party relations in the industrial periphery of Istanbul, Turkey.     

Electoral Violence in Conflict-Ridden Societies: Concepts,Causes, and Consequences

What are the causes of electoral violence? And how does electoral violence influence conflict resolution and democracy? This article argues for a conceptualization of electoral violence as a specific sub-category of political violence, determined mainly by its timing and target. The enabling conditions and triggering factors can be identified in three main areas: 1) the nature of politics in conflict societies, 2) the nature of competitive elections, and 3) the incentives created by the electoral institutions. These clusters of factors are important for understanding electoral violence both between different societies and across elections in a specific country.     

South African election posters: Reflecting the maturing of a democracy?

Abstract

The South African democracy has survived three national and provincial elections and three local elections, since 1994. In comparison to other young democracies in Africa, South Africa has experienced a relatively stable transition to democracy. However, the ruling ANC has not been under pressure from opposition parties. Although this has helped pave the way, a dominant governing party does not necessarily encourage the growth of a mature, democratic political culture. The assumption of this article is that political parties in developing societies have a normative obligation to do more than canvas votes during election campaigns. Political parties should also be instrumental in fostering a democratic political culture by communicating democratic values, encouraging participation in the democracy and enabling voters to make an informed electoral choice. Although political posters contribute mainly to image building, the reinforcement of party support, and the visibility of the party, posters are the agenda setters or headlines of a party's campaign – it is therefore argued that political parties in developing societies also need to design political posters responsively, in order to sustain the democracy. In general it seems that the poster campaigns of parties have matured since 1999, in the sense that there was less emphasis on democratisation issues in the past, and the campaigns conformed more to the norm of Western political campaigning.     

A. Lentin,The Last Political Law Lord: Lord Sumner (1859–1934)

ABSTRACT

Non-governmental organisations [NGOs] sought to expand American conceptions of human rights and contributed to shaping the American debate over Nicaragua policy in the 1980s. Progressive NGOs interpreted human rights to include political and civil liberties along with social and economic ones, an interpretation similar to that of the Nicaraguan government and embodied in Nicaraguan democracy. The Ronald Reagan Administration interpreted human rights narrowly to include only political and civil ones whilst recognising electoral politics as the essential ingredient of democracy. The Administration also considered the defeat of communism as its highest priority. Calling the Sandinistas, which controlled the Nicaraguan government after July 1979, both communist and allies of the Soviets and Cubans, Reagan’s anti-communism led him to support a counterrevolutionary force in Nicaragua—the Contras. NGOs and members of Congress regularly accused the Contras of human rights abuse; and NGOs used a lexicon of human rights to oppose Reagan’s Nicaragua policy and challenge the Cold War construct.     

Electoral reform and public policy outcomes in Thailand: the politics of the 30-Baht health scheme

How do changes in electoral rules affect the nature of public policy outcomes? The current evidence supporting institutional theories that answer this question stems almost entirely from quantitative cross-country studies, the data of which contain very little within-unit variation. Indeed, while there are many country-level accounts of how changes in electoral rules affect such phenomena as the number of parties or voter turnout, there are few studies of how electoral reform affects public policy outcomes. This article contributes to this latter endeavor by providing a detailed analysis of electoral reform and the public policy process in Thailand through an examination of the 1997 electoral reforms. Specifically, the author examines four aspects of policy-making: policy formulation, policy platforms, policy content, and policy outcomes. The article finds that candidates in the pre-1997 era campaigned on broad, generic platforms; parties had no independent means of technical policy expertise; the government targeted health resources to narrow geographic areas; and health was underprovided in Thai society. Conversely, candidates in the post-1997 era relied more on a strong, detailed national health policy; parties created mechanisms to formulate health policy independently; the government allocated health resources broadly to the entire nation through the introduction of a universal health care system, and health outcomes improved. The author attributes these changes in the policy process to the 1997 electoral reform, which increased both constituency breadth (the proportion of the population to which politicians were accountable) and majoritarianism.     

Popular understanding of democracy in contemporary China

By taking the official state ideology into consideration, this article seeks to contribute to the study of public opinion of democracy under non-democratic regimes by analysing both qualitative and quantitative evidence collected in China. An examination of the ruling Chinese Communist Party (CCP)’s discourse on democracy reveals that the CCP endorses popular sovereignty and political participation while denying political contestation. Meanwhile, the concept of democracy can have three distinctive meanings among ordinary Chinese: democracy as freedom, democracy as political participation to ensure government accountability, and democracy as good socio-economic performance. Survey data show that the majority of informed Chinese respondents treat democracy as political participation to ensure government accountability, which indicates that Chinese understanding of democracy has reached to a certain degree of consensus that is closer to universally-shared idea of democracy rather than being culturally distinctive.     

Election law violations as campaign effort: turnout in Japan's House of Councillors elections

Electoral fraud is a form of corrupt behaviour but it is also a form of electoral behaviour. Once the grosser forms of stuffing the ballot box have been eliminated, illegal campaigning often involves precisely the same activities as does legal campaigning. What makes it electoral fraud is ‘stepping over the line’, spending X?+?Y when the legal limit is X for example. In this study we analyse the determinants of legal and illegal campaign efforts as well as the impact of such efforts on voter turnout. We use the aggregate number of election law violations per district as a measure of Y, which is normally unobserved because it is illegal and thus unreported. We further distinguish between various types of election fraud such as vote-buying and canvassing and determine their effects on turnout. We find that electoral fraud is more common in close races and when there is intraparty competition. Similarly, illegal campaign effort in general mirrors legal efforts in increasing turnout although its effects depend on the type of violation in question.