东亚货币合作中的美元因素

国际美元本位制使美国获得了主导东亚地区货币政策的软权力,国际美元本位制的"特里芬困境"对于东亚共同货币的构建也存在着难以避免的外部效应.东亚美元化削减了东亚货币合作的所得收益,而强势美元政策使东亚国家面对美元霸权时陷入进退两难境地,从而在一定程度上影响了东亚货币合作最终目标的实现.在东亚货币合作的过程中,一种理想化的共同货币区模式仍然需要不断的发展和完善,如何利用和应对美元的影响则是东亚国家亟待解决的一大问题.     

The poor in Singapore: issues and options

This article examines the changing patterns of poverty in Singapore. As Singapore's population ages, the poor increasingly includes the elderly. It appears that ascribed factors, such as gender and race, have significant influence on financial security at old age. As the population ages, the adequacy of existing anti-poverty policy is challenged.     

Latin America and the Dollar Bloc in the Twenty‐first Century: To Dollarize or Not?

The choice of exchange rate regime is a continuing challenge to Latin American policymakers, who currently face pressure to dollarize their economies. The constraints imposed by the "dollar bloc," the informal but powerful currency bloc that ties Latin America to the dominant currency, are central to that choice. Current weak economic performance has called the bloc's norms and principles into question and has made the exchange rate an open issue. Ecuador's full official dollarization is one possible strategy for countries with political stability but poor economic performance to gain access to needed dollar resources. Most of Latin America, however, will continue with variants of managed floating exchange rates, and the periodic foreign exchange crises will provide access to official dollar resources and facilitate renegotiation of the terms of outstanding debt.     

The poor in Singapore: Issues and options

This article examines the changing patterns of poverty in Singapore. As Singapore's population ages, the poor increasingly includes the elderly. It appears that ascribed factors, such as gender and race, have significant influence on financial security at old age. As the population ages, the adequacy of existing anti-poverty policy is challenged.     

When Investors Enjoy Less Policy Risk: Divided Government,Economic Policy Change,and Stock Market Volatility in Germany, 1970‐2005

How does divided government affect the probability of economic policy change, and thus policy risk on financial markets? In contrast to the standard balancing model we argue that divided government, i.e., partisan conflict between the executive and the legislative branches, negatively affects the possibility of economic policy change. Using a simple spatial model we demonstrate that one should expect divided government to increase the probability of policy gridlock. Since divided government reduces the probability of economic policy change, financial markets can operate under lower policy risk in times of divided than in periods of unified government. For the empirical evaluation we exploit the fact that stock return volatility provides us with a measure of risk. If the gridlock argument does hold, stock return fluctuations should be lower under divided than under unified government. Our results confirm that divided government has a volatility reducing effect on the German stock market. This supports the view that divided government lowers policy risk.     

金融危机后日本银行货币政策框架演变与启示

为了应对全球性金融危机对金融系统的冲击,日本银行采用了极为宽松的货币政策,在灵活调整货币政策框架的同时运用了大量传统和非传统的政策工具。文章主要从货币政策目标、货币政策工具以及货币政策传导机制三个方面考察了金融危机后日本银行从传统货币政策体系框架向量化货币政策体系框架的演变过程。日本银行的政策实践对我国进一步完善货币政策框架有一定的借鉴和启示。     

The New Left and Health Care Reform in El Salvador

After a decade of civil war and four consecutive conservative administrations, El Salvador's leftist FMLN won its first presidential election in 2009. How has public policy changed under this New Left government, and why? This article addresses the question in the area of public health care. An alliance of health sector leaders with both technocratic and diplomatic abilities capitalized on the policy window opened by the FMLN's electoral victory and worked within the parameters set by President Mauricio Funes, the FMLN, and civil society to universalize health care. The new minister of health, a professional highly esteemed inside and outside the country, was able to engage both a large social movement protesting neoliberal policy and an energetic health diplomat sent by the Pan American Health Organization. In designing its reform, this alliance benefited from international as well as “bottom‐up” policy diffusion.     

Multisectoral Movement Alliances and Media Access: Salvadoran Newspaper Coverage of the Health Care Struggle

Focusing on the social movement that resisted the privatization of health care in El Salvador in 2002–3, this article asks how the movement's multisectoral composition influenced news coverage of the health care policy debate. Specifically, it examines whether the diversity of perspectives in the alliance was reflected in the media's source selection and framing of the policy issues. A content analysis of Salvadoran newspapers' coverage shows that the media relied mainly on just two movement actors to represent the antiprivatization position: the striking doctors and the leftist opposition party. It also reveals that a period of elite dissensus on the policy issues opened a temporary opportunity to insert movement messages in the coverage. The study indicates that a multisectoral alliance does not enhance movement influence through the news media, though broad alliances confer strategic advantages for the movement's broader communication work.     

Coercive Policy Diffusion in a Developing Country: The Case of Public-Private Partnerships in Sri Lanka

Over the last two decades, public-private partnership policy has been adopted in developing countries to a lesser degree than in industrialised countries. This paper argues that this policy has been diffused to developing countries like Sri Lanka with coercion from international aid-granting organisations through conditionalities attached to financial assistance. It details the country-specific challenges faced by Sri Lanka in responding to conditionalities as it has sought to implement this policy. Drawing on policy diffusion theory the paper develops a framework to be used in analysing the issues under investigation.     

The Impact of the USSR on Lithuania's Domestic Policy and Its International Orientation in the Third Decade of the Twentieth Century

This article investigates links between domestic and foreign policy, topics which are usually discussed rather than analyzed in any detail. The case of the USSR and Lithuania is taken as an historical example of the impact of the external factor on domestic policy, and an attempt is made to elucidate how the Soviets tried to influence and correct Lithuania's policy in the inter-war period by providing financial assistance to parties and their press. In this way they sought to set Lithuania against Poland and fuel the conflict between them, so that they would not become reconciled, would not create the so-called Baltic Union with Latvia, Estonia and Finland and would not orient themselves to the West. Using financial and other levers of secret policy, the Soviets contributed significantly to pushing the pro-Western Christian Democratic Party away from power in Lithuania so that the Nationalists, who sought to establish closer relations with the USSR, came to be established. The overseas financing of parties which remained unknown to the public distorted the political process of Lithuania and hindered the maturing of social awareness.     

Equality and Regional Finance in the Americas

This article explores competing definitions of equality embedded in contending visions for regional finance in the Americas. The U.S. free market–oriented project envisions extension of a NAFTA‐like regulatory framework hemispherewide, promising Latin Americans better financial services, credit, and investment in exchange for strong financial property protections and (implicitly) dramatically reduced financial policy autonomy for their governments. Venezuela's vision of “Bolivarian” finance, exported to the Caribbean and the upper Andes, promotes assertive state management of both foreign and domestic investors, populist redistribution, and increasing reliance on nonmarket financial transactions. Brazil's regional financial project would unite South America through continentwide physical infrastructure and capitalist financial markets while retaining a role for public sector banks responsive to central government priorities. Brazil's approach shares with Venezuela's an emphasis on governments' need for financial policy authority and with the U.S. approach a concern for regulatory predictability and financial deepening.     

The resurgence of banking institutions in post-crisis Korea

This article studies financial structure transition in Korea by focusing on the flow of funds as endogenous responses to government reform policies. In the pre-crisis period, asymmetric and unbalanced financial liberalization policies had resulted in the dominance of non-bank financial institutions and the deterioration of corporate debt structure. After the crisis, notwithstanding the IMF reform package designed to make Korea's financial system more arm's-length and market-based, the financial structure has become more bank-based as a result of the sequential approach to bank and non-bank financial restructuring as well as delayed resolution of insolvent non-financial firms. We identify risk factors embedded in this financial transition gridlock and draw policy lessons.]     

Finanzplatz deutschland: National or European response to internationalisation?

Germany's has long been held up as a competitive, bank‐based financial system, providing long‐term and secure finance for industrial and service companies. The emphasis here is on the international market and regulatory conditions which have helped to transform the the financial system. In the 1980s, the government remained averse to any ‘Big Bang’ experiment, adapting national securities markets to policy initiatives in the US, and in London and Paris. This aversion was rooted in Bundesbank opposition to the development of money markets, and to the practice of corporate‐bank‐insurance cross‐shareholding among Germany's big publicly listed corporations. The politics of ‘Finanzplatz Deutschland’ achieved a balance between maintaining national institutions and adapting them carefully to international markets and regulation. Implementing monetary union and the European financial area in the 1990s and beyond amounts in effect to a ‘Big Bang ‘ policy which is already under way. The prospect of a liquid ‘Euro'‐market for securities, and increasingly competitive banking and insurance markets, spells a shift in German corporate policies towards Anglo‐American practices. National cross‐shareholding corporate structures will not long survive a single currency.     

Civil Society Engagement in Trade Negotiations: CAFTA Opposition Movements in El Salvador

This article analyzes civil society participation in the free trade debate by focusing on networks that opposed the Central American Free Trade Agreement (CAFTA) in El Salvador. Drawing on documents, direct observation, and semistructured interviews with civil society leaders, two kinds of opposition coalitions are identified. "Critic negotiators," emphasizing active engagement and policy research, used the limited participation space opened by authorities to push for reform. "Transgressive resisters," repudiating the formal consultation process, deployed confrontational tactics and posed more fundamental challenges. This work uses social movement theory to explore coalition resource mobilization, the role of movement entrepreneurs, strategic decisionmaking, mechanisms linking local and transnational activists, and the dynamics of intramovement competition.     

Indonesia: The politics of inclusion

Much commentary on Indonesian politics since the fall of President Suharto in May 1998 has suggested that Indonesia's political system has remained just as exclusionary as it was prior to his fall, despite becoming much more democratic and decentralised. In contrast to this view, we argue that Indonesia's political system has become more inclusive, if only somewhat more so. The fall of Suharto and the subsequent process of democratisation have removed key obstacles to organisation by poor and disadvantaged groups and their NGO allies, making it easier for them to engage in collective action aimed at achieving pro-poor policy change. By making attainment of political office dependent on the support of the voting public, many of whom are poor and disadvantaged, these developments have also created an incentive for politicians to pursue policy changes that favour these groups or at least that appeal to them. At the same time, however, we argue that poor and disadvantaged groups have not become major players in the policy-making process. Despite the fall of Suharto and democratisation, these groups continue to lack the resources possessed by other participants in the policy-making process. Whereas the politico-bureaucrats and well-connected business groups have been able to exercise influence over policy by buying support within representative bodies such as parliament and mobile capital controllers, the IFIs and Western governments have been able to exercise influence by virtue of their structural power, poor and disadvantaged groups have had to rely on less potent ways of exercising influence such as holding demonstrations, engaging in lobbying activity and participating in public debates. We illustrate these points with reference to two policy issues: land reform and mining in protected forests. The article concludes by considering the future prospects for inclusive policy-making in Indonesia.     

Political or Financial Benefits? Ideology,Tenure, and Parliamentarians’ Choice of Interest Group Ties

This article develops and tests a parliamentarian‐centred decision model of the collaboration between interest groups (IGs) and parliamentarians. We posit that parliamentarians face a trade‐off when deciding on IG ties that offer them either political (policy support and votes) or financial benefits (additional income). We theorise the balance in this trade‐off to be moderated by ideology and tenure because both introduce variations in IG ties’ utility across politicians. Using Swiss longitudinal data from 1985 to 2015 on 743 parliamentarians and their 5,431 IG board positions, we show that parliamentarians become more financial benefit‐seeking over time. This holds in particular if they belong to right‐leaning parties. We also find self‐imposed restrictions for new and left‐leaning parliamentarians on seeking financial benefits. This highlights that parliamentarians are responsive to their partisan constituents when building their IG tie portfolio.     

Bringing the PDS into the coalition equation

This article is intended to be a contribution to the study of the politics of the Anglo‐German relationship, and to the politics of NATO enlargement, seen purely within this context. It is not concerned with the validity of any strategic arguments concerning enlargement, the organisational or the financial problems stemming from this policy, or the wider strategic issues raised by this policy. From 1992 until 1 May 1997 the bilateral Anglo‐German relationship exhibited ever deeper fissures in policy on European integration, and on monetary union in particular. Yet, Anglo‐German policy in respect of NATO's eastern expansion and its relations with the new Russia, which reflected an integrating Europe from a different perspective, was characterised by fundamental agreement. This paradox, it is suggested, indicates that policy on Europe suffered more from ideological conflict on European integration within the governing Conservative Party during the period under review than from an inherent or necessary conflict of national interest between Britain and Germany.     

Challenges and Prospects for Economic Development in Africa

Africa's history of economic development and growth has been characterised by failed experiments, poor planning and impractical orthodoxies. This left the continent at the mercy of states and ruling elites who were unable to meet the challenges of both rising expectations from their citizens and the imperatives of sound policy design and implementation. Difficult existential conditions, including rising levels of poverty and bad governance, have been compounded by the vagaries of the international environment and Africa's peripheral position in its political economy and division of labour. Auspicious growth indicators over the last decade, fuelled mainly by global commodity demand and improved macro-economic management, have recently been undermined by the global financial crisis. The crisis has again exposed the continent to the spectre of depressed growth, with serious implications for state capacity and social welfare. This article examines the main ideological fault-lines, development challenges, and external factors that have characterised Africa's economic development and concludes that the future of the continent will remain one of this century's great challenges.     

Policy learning from crisis in financial regulation and supervision: comparative analysis of Estonia,Latvia, and Sweden

ABSTRACT

The goal of the article is to explore comparatively whether the crisis of 2008–10 has led to policy learning in financial regulation and supervision by civil servants in Estonia, Latvia, and Sweden. The article discusses how various factors can influence policy learning, including the acknowledgment of failure, blame shifting, analytical tractability of the policy problems, and the influence of external actors. We show that although the experience of the crisis varied significantly between the three countries, the policy lessons learnt are broadly similar in all three countries, due to the external influence of the European Union.     

More with Less? Fiscal Decentralisation,Public Health Spending and Health Sector Performance

Decentralisation is considered a panacea for deficient public sector performance by many. However, recent trends of health sector recentralisation in several OECD countries suggest the opposite. Taking on a cross‐country perspective, I examine two hypotheses, namely that decentralisation leads to an increase in public health spending (H1) and to poor health sector outcomes (H2). The evidence I present suggests that decentralising spending tends to lead to larger public health sectors and to poorer health sector outcomes. However, decentralising tax authority has no effect on the size of the health sector and may actually have a positive effect on health sector performance. The broader lesson is that while general fiscal decentralisation research tends to imply that its conclusions are valid for all policy areas in a similar way, sector‐specific insights can reveal a more nuanced view on the consequences of fiscal decentralisation.