巴基斯坦的政治发展(续一)

相对稳定的十年——阿尤布·汗统治时期的巴基斯坦政治 1958年10月7日,巴基斯坦实行军法管制,阿尤布·汗被任命为首席军法管制执行官。从10月27日接替伊斯坎德尔·米尔扎担任巴总统兼国防部长、武装部队最高统帅,到1969年3月25日被迫下台,阿尤布·汗对巴进行了十年零五个月的统治。穆罕默德·阿尤布·汗1907年5月14日出生在英属印度西北边省的哈扎拉县。与他的前任们不同,他不是出生于大城市的名门大户,而是出生在边远落后山区农村中一个不大的地主家庭。他家为帕坦族人,土地不多,家庭成员多以从军为业或以自由职业为生。阿尤     

在僵局中出现转机的美巴关系

冷战结柬后 ,美国与巴基斯坦的关系陷入僵局 ,而“9·11”事件的发生彻底改变了这种局面。出于对各自战略利益的考虑 ,美巴两国又重新恢复了盟国关系。这种盟国关系会随着两国战略利益的发展而发展。     

脆弱的联盟——“9·11”后的美巴关系

"9·11"事件后,美国决定铲除恐怖主义,其第一步是对制造"9·11"事件的"基地"组织和庇护该组织的阿富汗塔利班政权发动战争.为了取得战争的胜利,美国采取措施拉拢在这一战争中有着重要战略地位的巴基斯坦,使冷战后被抛弃的美巴联盟得以恢复.在战争中,美巴关系得到前所未有的发展.但由于两国联盟的基础仅仅是反恐战争,所以在阿富汗战争结束后,美巴联盟出现裂痕.     

巴基斯坦“十月革命”

1947年巴基斯坦独立不久,国父真纳先生和首任总理利亚格特先后去世。面临百业待举、百废待兴的新国家陷入了严重的政客们争权夺利的政治危机,中央政府更迭频繁,制宪议会被取消,制宪搁浅。1958年10月7日,总统伊斯坎德尔·米尔扎宣布取消宪法、解散议会、实行军法统治,并任命军队总司令穆罕默德·阿尤布·汗为政府总理和军法管制首席执行官。3周后的1958年10月27日,阿尤布·汗发动宫廷政变,逼令米尔扎辞去总统职务,自任总统兼国防部长、武装部队最高统帅。阿尤布自诩的“十月革命”(史称“十月政变”)结束了     

冷战时期美巴关系中的巴基斯坦军队因素

本文分析了冷战时期巴基斯坦军队与美国相互的认知和政策取向,并以卡特执政时期对待齐亚·哈克政府的态度转变为例,分析其对美巴关系带来的影响,最后对于冷战时期美巴关系中的巴基斯坦军队因素做出一个较为准确的评估。     

美巴关系中的巴基斯坦代议制政府因素

在影响美巴关系的诸多因素中,巴基斯坦代议制政府是较为重要的一个因素。本文将简要梳理巴基斯坦代议制政府的发展历程,并分析其与美国相互的认知和政策取向,然后再分析冷战与后冷战时期巴基斯坦代议制政府因素对美巴关系的影响,最后对于美巴关系中的巴基斯坦代议制政府因素做出一个较为准确的评估。     

浅析美、印、巴三角关系的变化

近年来,美国、印度、巴基斯坦三角关系由冷战结束初期所呈现出的相对均衡的锐角三角型,变成了美"近印疏巴"的钝角三角型."9·11事件"后,美国回调对南亚的政策,美巴关系转圜,美、印、巴间的三角关系发生了新的嬗变.如何看待这些变化,如何把握美、印、巴三角关系未来的走向,是本文所要探讨的重点.     

冷战时期美巴关系中的美国两党制因素

在影响冷战时期美巴关系的诸多因素中,美国两党制是较为重要的一个因素。本文将分析巴基斯坦与美国两个主要政党相互的认知和政策取向,然后再以卡特执政时期和里根执政时期的美巴关系发展为例,分析其对美巴关系带来的影响,最后对于冷战时期美巴关系中的美国两党制因素做出一个较为准确的评估。     

布托时期巴基斯坦政治的发展——布托的重大改革及其后果

东巴的独立、巴基斯坦军队在第三次印巴战争中的败北,激起了巴各阶层的强烈不满,反对叶海亚·汗的示威游行此起彼伏,遍及巴基斯坦东西南北,叶海亚·汗已不能控制局势。在全巴上下一片愤怒声中,叶海亚·汗于1971年12月30日辞去总统职务,人民党主席佐勒菲卡尔·阿里·布托接任巴基斯坦总统和军法管制首席执行官,开始了他对巴基斯坦五年又七个月的统治。一、布托的崛起佐勒菲卡尔·阿里·布托1928年1月5日出身于信德省的拉卡纳一个贵族穆斯林家庭,     

巴美关系回顾——兼述美援的一个特点

贝·布托和乔治·布什分别就任巴、美总理和总统前,巴基斯坦和美国的关系大致可以划分为三个阶段:1954年至1965年的“最密切的盟友”阶段,1965至1979年的“冷漠”时期,1979年底苏军入侵阿富汗后,巴美关系开辟了重新友好的“新篇章”。和巴中关系相比,巴美关系是不稳定的。本文在回顾巴美关系的起伏变化时将着重分析引起这种变化的原因。美国对巴基斯坦的军事和经济援助量随两国关系的冷热不同而增减,人们从本文的叙述中自然会看出美援的某一个特点。本文涉及到美国全球战略的变化以及美中、中印、美苏、美印、     

Identification of Risk Factors Generating Terrorism in Pakistan

Terrorism is a complex issue and various researchers have identified numerous causes and conditions that generate or are capable of generating terrorism. In the last decade, terrorist attacks claimed 36,495 lives and injured 27,985 people in Pakistan as a result of 3,482 bomb blasts and 281 suicide attacks. The aim of this research was to establish the major risk factors generating terrorism, based on the opinions of security officials who dealt directly with the Pakistan security situation. Sixty-five causes identified from the literature and interviews with security officials were modeled and transformed into a questionnaire. A nationwide response from security officials who were directly involved in dealing with apprehended terrorists was obtained. The population was selected proportionately from high, medium, and low security zones of Pakistan. Out of 500 questionnaires sent, 103 valid responses were received. The results helped establish the 13 major risk factors associated with generating terrorism. It was observed that addressing these 13 major risk factors would mostly resolve the other minor risk factors as well. Findings of this research might be beneficial for countries affected by terrorism, and countries with prioritized and rationalized allocation of funds in their budgets for substantially overcoming terrorism.     

简析20世纪巴基斯坦与伊朗的关系

巴基斯坦和伊朗分别是南亚和西亚地区有着重要影响的国家。从巴基斯坦独立至20世纪结束,巴伊两国保持一种较为紧密的战略合作关系。尽管两国关系发展并非一帆风顺,也存在不少有争议的问题,但是,大部分时段内,共同的战略利益使得巴基斯坦与伊朗都致力于弥合他们之间的分歧,并努力加固联系彼此之间关系的纽带。考察巴基斯坦与伊朗两国关系的历史发展可以看出,保持一种密切的战略合作关系符合这两国的国家利益。     

Diplomacy of Estrangement: The Dealings of the United States with Pakistan before 9/11

Diplomatic correspondence between Washington and the American Embassy in Islamabad published by the National Security Archive shows that during the last 35 years of the twentieth century American diplomacy toward Pakistan faced a mutually de-escalating relationship. Pakistan wanted American economic and military assistance as well as support in its conflicts with India. The United States was ready to aid Pakistan, but only so far as Islamabad respected American demands. These focused on containing Soviet influence in the region and, more recently, fighting al-Qaeda and the Taliban. The United States also asked Pakistan to refrain from manufacturing nuclear weapons. To enforce this policy, successive American administrations showered Pakistan with sanctions. These sanctions were lifted again and again, because they undercut American diplomatic influence with the Pakistani government. Washington did not intend to support Pakistan in its conflicts with India. Pakistan let down the United States by not using its leverage over the Taliban to capture Osama Bin Laden. Mistrust resulting from this roller coaster relationship should have warned American diplomats not to take Pakistan's support in the war in Afghanistan against al-Qaeda and the Taliban for granted.     

无人攻击机面临的国际法挑战——以美国在巴基斯坦的无人机攻击为例

过去十年间,无人机数量和战场使用快速增加。自2004年以来,美国利用无人攻击机在巴基斯坦境内定点清除基地组织和塔利班人员,在取得一定打击效果的同时,也造成了严重的平民伤亡。许多批评者认为,在巴基斯坦的无人机攻击不仅存在法律方面的问题,而且对南亚反恐局势产生了负面作用。本文试从国际法,着重是战争法的角度分析在巴无人机攻击的非法性及其影响。     

Afghan Refugees in Pakistan: Not All Refugees, Not Always in Pakistan, Not Necessarily Afghan?

In 2001, there were estimated to be two million Afghan refugeesin Pakistan. In the past six years, however, over 3.5 millionrefugees have returned, and recent census data show that nearly2.5 million still remain in Pakistan. Three straightforwardexplanations for this monumental discrepancy have been posited:Afghans’ high birthrates, their history of cross-bordermigration, and increasing levels of urbanization in Pakistan.Yet the fact that none of these processes comes as a surpriseto researchers familiar with the history of Afghan refugeesbegs a still deeper question: how and why were these processesso utterly overlooked in 2001? The answer, it is argued, isa fundamental confusion not only in how we count refugees butin how we conceptualize them. The dichotomous distinction betweenrefugees and non-refugees, while possessing a certain legalclarity, does a poor job of describing the reality of individualswhose movements are influenced by numerous social, political,and economic factors.     

Indo-Pakistan Relationship is Moving from Confrontation to Détente

At the beginning of this year, Mr. A.B.Vajpayee,Prime Minister of India and General Pervez Musharraf, President of Pakistan held their first meeting in the past two years on the sideline of the 12^th South Asian Association Regional Cooperation(SAARC) Summit Meeting.     

Imperatives of Peace in South Asia

For the past 54 years, South Asia has been mired in tension and conflicts. The root cause of these problems is the unresolved Kashmir dispute between India and Pakistan. The United Nations, despite its Charter obligation to maintain international peace and security, has been unable to resolve this dispute. Kashmir, itself, has been turned into a nuclear flashpoint and poses a threat to international peace and security. The challenge before the international community, and especially the United States, therefore, is to become involved in resolving the dispute in accordance with the relevant Security Council resolutions and in conformity with the wishes of the Kashmiri people. India must show its good faith by eschewing hegemonic designs, abandoning bellicosity and brinkmanship, and sincerely joining Pakistan in overcoming all bilateral problems. It is time to restore peace and stability in South Asia. To achieve that, the international community, especially the United States, must play their due role.     

Afghanistan's India–Pakistan dilemma: advocacy coalitions in weak states

This article seeks to examine the foreign policy behaviour of weak states in regions marked by politically turbulent geostrategic environments. An analysis of Afghanistan's foreign policy behaviour vis-à-vis Pakistan and India lends focus to this aim. India–Pakistan rivalry has gained traction as a key factor in determining Afghanistan's stability in the wake of the drawdown of Coalition forces. Missing from this debate, however, is consideration of Afghanistan's agency as a weak state with an independent set of policy preferences. Based on primary interviews with a diverse set of Afghan political actors the article outlines two competing policy advocacies: Pakistan friendly and Pakistan averse. The article argues that these advocacies are key to understanding Afghanistan's India–Pakistan dilemma. Departing from the ethnic lens used to explain Afghan politics and its regional linkages, this article shows that Kabul's relations with Islamabad determine its approach towards New Delhi regardless of ethnic rivalries. Understanding domestic Afghan narratives in this regional context is therefore imperative to adequately assess South Asia's prospective security calculus.     

Islam,Militancy, and Politics in Pakistan: Insights From a National Sample

We use data from an innovative nationally representative survey of 6,000 Pakistanis in April 2009 to study beliefs about political Islam, Sharia, the legitimacy and efficacy of jihad, and attitudes towards specific militant organizations. These issues are at the forefront of U.S. policy towards Pakistan. Four results shed new light on the politics of militancy and Islamic identity in Pakistan. First, there is no relationship between measures of personal religiosity and the likelihood a respondent expresses highly sectarian sentiments. Second, militarized jihad is widely seen as legitimate in Pakistan but there are substantial regional differences in the acceptance of militarized jihad. Third, attitudes towards militant groups vary dramatically across groups, particularly when it comes to the efficacy of their actions. Fourth, while Pakistanis express massive levels of support for Sharia law, this is driven by its perceived connection with good governance, not by sympathy with the goals of militant groups claiming to implement it.     

美国的南亚战略与中印关系

2011年是奥巴马政府推行新的南亚战略的关键一年。从美国的观点来看,南亚之所以重要是因为反恐是美国的头号战略目标,但奥巴马政府上台后谋求一系列改变,美国选民也希望看到与小布什政府时期不同的战略,其中显然包括了反恐这一领域。对奥巴马来说,要实现其在上次大选所许的承诺,恐怕阿富汗是绕不过的一关,也是外界可能赖以评判其新战略的关键。在这个重要的时刻,美国军方果然不负当局的希望,于5月1日给华盛顿带来了击毙本·拉登的好消息。该消息的地缘政治效应扩散之际,奥巴马宣布了美军从阿富汗开始撤军,初步勾勒出美国的阿富巴战略。本文拟从此点切入,进而讨论中国和印度这两个本地区大国在维护地区稳定方面开展合作的前景。