Asian Security without the United States? Examining China’s Security Strategy in Maritime and Continental Asia

Chinese President Xi Jinping has touted an Asian security architecture in which “it is for the people of Asia to run the affairs of Asia.” But does China really want to exclude the United States from the regional order? This article argues that previous answers are often insufficient because they do not account for sub-regional variation in China’s strategy. In maritime Asia, China seeks a significantly reduced role for the US and its alliances though major constraints limit the prospects for success. In continental Asia, however, the situation is more nuanced, with Beijing alternately ignoring, supporting, or hedging against US presence. The policy implication is that Washington should not overstate Beijing’s role as either a regional adversary or a regional partner. Rather, the United States needs to approach China on its own terms across sub-regions.     

Changing Global Landscape and Enhanced US Engagement with Asia—Challenges and Emerging Trends

United States President Barack Obama's announcement of significant shifts in US polices towards the Middle East and East Asia in 2009 has affected the global strategic landscape. President Obama's announcement of enhanced US engagement with Asia has posed certain challenges to the prevailing regional architecture of ASEAN centric institutions and ASEAN centrality which has fostered peace and stability, and prosperity in the region. The rise of China and its growing political and economic influence in the region and its military modernisation have aroused US concern that a rising China could in the future challenge its primacy in the Asia region. President Obama's announcement of a web of military alliances of treaty allies and strategic partners with the stationing of US marines in Darwin in November 2011 was perceived by China as an attempt by the US to contain China or constrain its rise. ASEAN is uneasy about any emergence of big power rivalry in the region.     

东亚区域合作领导权模式构想:东盟机制下的中美日合作领导模式

在东亚区域合作进程中,不能不面对领导权的问题。由于东亚地区政治、经济、文化、制度等方面的多元化,决定了该地区合作进程中领导权问题的特殊性。目前东亚地区的领导权(主导权)现状是小国主导模式(东盟模式)。本文笔者对可能存在的美国领导模式、日本领导模式、中国领导模式、中日合作领导模式等进行了可行性分析,提出了东盟机制下的中美日合作领导模式。东盟机制下的中美日合作领导模式解决了中、美、日三大国都不具备单独领导该地区的绝对资质问题;承认了美国在东亚的利益存在,有利于实现美国与东亚国家间的共存共赢;尊重了目前东盟主导东亚区域合作的现实,弥补了东盟模式的不足;能够调动中等国家、非政府组织等利益相关者的积极性。     

Hedging Strategies of the Middle Powers in East Asian Security: the Cases of South Korea and Malaysia

Many middle powers in East Asia—particularly South Korea and Malaysia—are affected by the strategic relationship between the USA (hereafter the USA) and China. Therefore, I would like to examine the strategic behaviors of the middle powers in East Asia from a hedging strategy perspective. The hedging strategy extends the logic of the traditional balance of power theory while maintaining a strong emphasis on structural incentives, which critics have found lacking in the soft balance approach. Most East Asian states have calibrated their security measures and strategies in response to the changing US-China relationship. The purpose of this article is to compare the hedging strategies of South Korea and Malaysia, which are middle powers, that affect the East Asian security order. This article, thus, aims not simply to explain specific instances of the hedging strategies of middle powers but also, based on this theoretical foundation, to establish a new frame of analysis for the hedging strategies of middle powers through objective and critical assessment.     

The Return of Great-Power Competition to the Middle East: A Two-Level Game

Great-power competition has once again assumed primacy in the international arena. Facing a rising China and a resurgent Russia, the United States formally reoriented its National Security Strategy in 2017 to place more emphasis on the return of great-power politics and global multipolarity. With the resumption of such competition, the Middle East has rightfully been noted as a regional theater where Russia and China have sought to exploit US policy blunders and retrenchment (real or perceived) to push for increased regional multipolarity. Although the Middle East has been recognized as a prime theater for great-power competition, the approaches adopted by most existing studies are primarily one-sided: they examine great-power competition in the region from the outside, stressing how global powers are manipulating affairs in the Middle East in order to advance their own interests. Often missing from this conversation is how external engagement in the Middle East is being exploited and shaped by regional powers and endogenous developments. This study seeks to fill this gap by using the conceptual lens of omnialignment to examine how regional powers are manipulating the return of great-power competition to advance their own strategic imperatives, both at home and abroad.     

China’s New Foreign Policy under Xi Jinping

Since taking power, the new Chinese President Xi Jinping has talked of “striving for achievements,” signaling a new theme in Chinese diplomacy. This article first examines the changes in Beijing’s foreign policy structure before moving on to examine the three major schools of thought on China’s immediate relations with its neighbors, implying that the policy focus will lie with the “advance westward” school. Moreover, this article highlights how China is maximizing its influence through economic interaction, whilst noting that economics is also being used to punish hostile countries. Furthermore, it notes that China’s next step is to influence change using the multilateral frameworks of the international system, remolding global rules to China’s benefit. The article concludes by examining Beijing’s leadership role, particularly its commitment to non-alliance, and whether Beijing and Washington can rebuild a more suitable model to reflect both country’s ambitions on the world stage.     

A SURVEY OF INDIA’S STRATEGIC ENVIRONMENT

This paper examines India’s strategic environment in the round. ‘Strategic’ refers here to politico-military aspects of international relations, particularly those with implications for the use or potential use of force in the future. Thus economic factors are considered secondarily, and only insofar as they have diplomatic and military ramifications – as in the case of Chinese infrastructure projects in South Asia, or Indian port-development in Iran. This approach also sets aside what we might call ‘structural’ factors, such as large-scale multilateral trade deals, such as the US-led Trans-Pacific Partnership (TPP), and sociological-demographic trends, such as relative population growth rates, also such issues necessarily influence the real and perceived balance of power over the long-run. The paper begins by considering India’s most salient adversary, Pakistan, before looking at the connected issue of Afghanistan and Central Asia. It then turns east to examine another rival, China, followed by the United States, the smaller states of South Asia, and finally the Middle East.     

A Middle Power's Roles in Shaping East Asian Security Order: Analysis of Japan's Engagement from a Normative Perspective

East Asia is currently in a transitional period. Recognizing the challenges presented by China's rise to the current regional order, existing literature analyses the security situation in Asia by focusing on the material aspects of power distribution between the US and China. Few works substantively discuss the roles played by middle powers such as Japan in shaping the regional order and how they can deal with the challenges of great power competition and threats to the global rules‐based order. By employing Japan's involvement in the South China Sea issues as a case study, this article examines how a middle power attempts to shape or underpin the regional security order and if such attempts are effective. The investigation of Japan's engagement illustrates that a middle power's practical support can indirectly and gradually contribute to sustaining and defending the regional “rules‐based order”.     

Asia’s Security Triangles: Maritime Minilateralism in the Indo-Pacific

Since the early years of the twenty-first century, a number of key regional governments have consciously chosen to alter the way they talk about the region, and have now largely shifted from using the ‘Asia-Pacific’ to the ‘Indo-Pacific’ construct. But after three decades of utilising the ‘Asia-Pacific’ concept, why has this been the case and how might this shift in geographical conceptualisation alter the strategic framework of the region? This paper argues that the ‘Indo-Pacific’ is a regional reconceptualisation utilised by Japan, Australia, India and the USA to address deficiencies in Asia’s maritime security and institutional architecture, which are being simultaneously influenced by a more assertive Chinese posture and waning U.S. influence. Additionally, the Indo-Pacific concept has developed in tandem with a transformation in the regional security architecture. The utilisation of maritime minilateralism between Japan, India, Australia and the USA supplements Asia’s bilateral American alliances, with an array of trilateral security dialogues or ‘security triangles’. The Asia-Pacific to Indo-Pacific shift is really an instance of an emerging minilateral security regionalism, rather than the predominant forms of bilateral and multilateral security and economic regionalism that have dominated Asia in recent decades.     

国际秩序与中美战略竞争

当今国际格局的最显著变化,就是新兴市场国家和发展中国家的群体性崛起以及中国与世界主要国家间力量对比的变化。就中美当前的实力地位和国际影响力而言,中美战略竞争中短期内还难以决定性地改变当前的国际秩序。中国即便对美国的贸易霸凌主义和在亚太地区的霸权主义军事及安全行动采取斗争的回应方式,也并不意味着两国无法合作、或中美关系已进入国际秩序变革的主导权之争。中美战略竞争的同时,经贸往来和必要的合作仍会发展。中美战略竞争会影响权力、观念和行为方式的调整变化,其走势将在相当程度上影响国际秩序的稳定和变革。但未来国际秩序的变革并非只取决于中美,世界主要国家间的互动关系和战略选择,将决定性地影响中美战略竞争的走势和未来国际秩序的演变进程。     

Domestic politics of Chinese foreign policy: where will Xi Jinping bring China?

ABSTRACT

Xi Jinping has concentrated his power since he acceded to the Chinese presidency. Where will Xi bring China? In this review essay I discuss four single-authored books – one in English and three in Japanese – to explore security implications of Xi’s reform and foreign policies. In her recent book, Elizabeth Economy is critical of Xi, arguing that he is turning away from Deng Xiaoping’s reform and internationalist policies. The three Japanese China specialists concur, and further highlight the interconnectedness of domestic politics and international relations. In sum, the four books show that Xi has struggled to commit to the state-owned enterprise reform and to cooperative foreign policy due to Chinese domestic politics, and as a result, has threatened regional security in the Asia-Pacific.     

The Pivot between Containment,Engagement, and Restraint: President Obama’s Conflicted Grand Strategy in Asia

This article examines the formulation and implementation of American grand strategy under the Obama administration, and how the “pivot to Asia” functions within this strategic context. It argues that President Obama attempts to secure continued American hegemony through a combination of cooperative engagement and restraint. This exposes a fundamental dilemma at the heart of America’s rebalancing: increased engagement with US allies and partners in the Asia-Pacific is fueling political, economic, and military competition with China. Sequestration and questions over American strategic coherence and consistency are simultaneously undermining the credibility of the pivot, both at home and abroad. The article concludes that this dilemma makes it unlikely for the pivot to succeed in its stated aims, unless the United States re-emphasizes cooperative engagement with China.     

The rise of china and the future of east asian integration

China is rising as the fastest growing largest economy and thereby leading a market-driven economic integration in East Asia. At the same time, nationalism is also rising and constraining East Asian countries from forming a state-driven regional community. This paper examines the political economy of interdependence and nationalism that is taking place in East Asia. Simply put, its central theme is that the degree of interdependence, especially between China and other countries, is deepening, and as a result, is pulling East Asia toward regional integration, but due to the rising tide of nationalism, it is far short of forming an actual community. In order to build a community, therefore, such economic trend must be propelled by political leadership and will. In elaborating on this thesis, the paper analyzes the trade and production networks centered on China, the efforts to promote regional integration in ASEAN?+?3, the nationalist rivalry between Japan and China in negotiating FTAs, and the difficulties in achieving Sino–Japanese reconciliation. Finally, the paper proposes a Northeast Asian Forum among Japan, South Korea and China while the US remains as a stabilizing force in East Asia.     

Issues in regional integration of east asia: conflicting priorities and perceptions

Since the end of the 1990s, the ASEAN countries and China, Korea and Japan have been pursuing regionalist efforts, namely the ASEAN?+?3 process. With Japan's participation, it is the first major endeavour for East Asia to establish a regionwide economic integration. The success of the integration process, however, depends on how the countries solve multiple issues, such as diverse expectations of economic integration among the members, the drifting course of US policies towards East Asia and an emerging contest for regional leadership between Japan and China. This article intends to illustrate these issues and suggests that there are a number of uncertainties in the integration process and that the region may have not necessarily found effective means to overcome the problems.     

危机幕后的东亚地区秩序分析

本文认为,东亚当前出现"大战不犯,小乱不断"状况的根源在于新旧嬗变中的地区秩序远未就域内各国的政治安排形成制度化设计,在于东亚地区秩序的"有气无力"。历史上,东亚地区秩序曾经历了天朝礼治秩序、条约秩序和冷战下"自主"秩序三种形态。依据历史脉络的梳理,本文认为有美国、中国、日本等七个要素影响着东亚地区秩序。为明确这些要素的特征及相互作用,本文提出了反映国家和国家关系总体形态的"锥体"模型。美国是影响东亚地区秩序的决定性变量,利用"锥体"模型,本文认为,美国现实主义的热情与贪婪,地缘战略的坚持与冷静,相互依赖的推动与困惑等特征共同勾画着东亚战略。中国的复兴是影响东亚地区秩序的突出变量,其显著特征在于整体性的成长。日本"正常化"是影响东亚地区秩序的另一主要变量,其特征在于日本自身的"二重性"。朝鲜半岛、台湾、东南亚由于其关键性和不稳定性而成为东亚地区秩序的缝合口。此外,俄罗斯要素也不可或缺。在美国要素与中国、日本等要素的复杂互动中,中美关系是东亚地区秩序的主轴,作为其中一方的中国,如何把握自身不断增长的力量至关重要。     

美国战略调整背景下朝鲜半岛地缘战略困境的演变与突破

作为美国全球战略的重要一环,美国亚太再平衡战略引发东北亚地缘战略形势的陡然紧张,也使朝鲜半岛局势在一波三折中日趋扑朔迷离。围绕朝鲜第三次核试验出现的中美日俄韩朝的双边和多边博弈不断升温,朝鲜半岛无核化的传统安全与非传统安全风险相互交织。要突破朝鲜半岛地缘紧张加剧和战略困境加深的窘况,必须坚持多边框架解决原则、努力落实安全承诺和不断深化经贸合作。     

South Korea and China's Security Objectives in East Asia

This article explores how South Korea relates to China's national security objectives in East Asia. Specifically, it argues that for China, the strategic value of South Korea lies in coping with the strong position of the US in East Asia. Moreover, South Korea's stance on the North Korean nuclear issue is closer to China's, compared with that of the US.     

习近平主席访韩成果、意义、局限及韩中关系中的战略课题——为促进韩中外交可持续发展的几点建议

中国国家主席习近平主席2014年7月3日对韩国进行国事访问,并与韩国总统朴槿惠举行了会谈,确认了韩中两国为"成熟的战略合作伙伴"关系。通过习主席访问韩国,韩中双方在政治、军事、经济、社会、文化领域的交流与合作等方面都取得了很大成果,尤其双方为共同应对日本歪曲历史问题而进行合作达成了协议,具有重要的意义。但是,为了韩中关系更长远的发展,也得考虑朝鲜、美国、日本等国家的因素。为了韩中两国关系的持久发展,重要的是为朝鲜半岛构建和平与统一的新的蓝图。两国共同领导才是推动南北关系改善、朝鲜半岛统一和东亚地区和平与稳定的核心轴。为了实现这个目标,应该尽快推进两国政府、两国学者之间的战略合作渠道和有创意性的战略性项目;还必须进行关于韩中历史问题的交流和对话,对一些历史问题进行共同研究。     

美国“印太”战略对南海问题的影响——以“印太”战略支点国家为重点

随着印度洋战略价值的上升,美国在"重返亚太"战略基础上推出了"印太"战略,其战略实质是美国在印太地区缔造战略支点,并将其塑造成美国霸权下的多极格局。印度、澳大利亚、日本作为美国在印太地区的战略支点国家,它们自身在南海地区具有重要的战略利益。在美国"印太"战略的引导下,战略支点国家将对南海问题产生深刻的影响,尤其是将加剧中国周边安全环境的复杂化。在中美战略博弈的背景下,考察美国"印太"战略特别是其支点国家对南海问题的影响,有助于我们把握美国"印太"战略的实质,也有益于我们全面地分析南海地区的安全形势,提出应对策略。     

Asymmetrical Regionalism: China,Southeast Asia and Uneven Development

Does the rise of China present a threat or an opportunity for Southeast Asia? One of the most revealing arenas in which this will be determined will be within the context of regional institution-building. For a region that is perennially associated with under-institutionalisation it is remarkable just how many initiatives have been proposed recently. Such institutions, may be important venues within which ‘asymmetric regionalism’ may be manifest and perhaps managed. The paper provides an assessment of this process through an analysis of China’s relationship with Southeast Asia. The paper initially provides a brief theoretical introduction which explains the relationship between regional development and its possible impact on inter-state relations. Following this I provide an analysis of the political economic and strategic dynamics that are shaping and being shaped by regional initiatives. Finally, I assess how successful ASEAN’s efforts have been to engage China via regional mechanisms has actually been.