Discounting Women: Context Matters in Risk and Need Assessment

Widely used risk/need assessment instruments assume that female offender risks for recidivism are essentially equivalent to those of male offenders. A look at the lives of female and male offenders reveals that there are important differences in the context of both offending and re-offending. This research draws on both quantitative and qualitative data to explore the effectiveness of a well known risk instrument to both predict recidivism and potentially direct intervention efforts. The results, particularly the in-depth interviews with offenders (both male and female) serving time on parole or felony probation reveal differences not detected by most contemporary risk and need assessment instruments. Ultimately, the gendered links among physical and sexual abuse, drugs, and crime are missed in risk and need assessments, thereby placing female offenders at risk for neglect and criminalization in an otherwise seemingly objective method of assessment.     

Recidivism among drug offenders: A survival analysis of the effects of offender characteristics,type of offense,and two types of intervention

The determinants of recidivism are increasingly becoming the focus of public concern. This study explores the relative effect of type of intervention, offender characteristics, and type of incident offense on time to a petition to revoke probation and time to a probation revocation. Our analysis of intervention effects includes both parametric and nonparametric estimation procedures. Estimating five distributional forms of survival and a proportional hazard model for each measure of recidivism, the analysis indicates no difference in the effect of a program of drug monitoring and treatment, compared to drug monitoring only, for either of the two measures of recidivism. In addition, findings indicate that younger offenders and African American offenders have a shorter time to a petition to revoke probation. We also found a reduced time to failure for a probation revocation for African American offenders and offenders with a prior arrest record. Our findings offer empirical support for a reconsideration of the type of intervention effective in deterring offenders while on probation.     

The parole performance of offenders released from shock incarceration (boot camp prisons): A survival time analysis

The parole performance of offenders who were released after successfully completing a shock incarceration program was examined and compared to the performance of offenders who were serving time on probation or parole after a period of incarceration. Separate survival analyses were performed for recidivism as measured by (1) arrests and (2) failures (jailed, absconded, or revoked). Prior incarceration, age, age at first arrest, and risk assessment score were related to recidivism but type of sentence was not. Intensity of supervision was significantly related to recidivism but this relationship was eliminated when risk level was controlled. There was no evidence that shock incarceration reduces recidivism. Future research should focus on methods of reducing failures during community supervision for these young, nonviolent offenders within the framework of either a shock incarceration program or some other sentence.An earlier version of this paper was presented at the American Probation and Parole Association 14th Annual Training Institute, Milwaukee, Wisconsin, August 1989.     

Experiences of probation supervision in Hong Kong: Listening to the young adult probationers

The aim of this article is to report some of the qualitative findings generated from a recent research on probation in Hong Kong. It explores subjective views and experiences of probation supervision from the young adult offender's point of view. Recently there was an increasing emphasis on probation research and improvement, thereby identifying what works or otherwise in rehabilitating offenders and reducing their re-offending. Nonetheless, the role of offenders was largely neglected as service recipients or ‘customers’ in commenting on the usefulness of a penal measure. Offenders are excluded from being asked for their opinions as citizens. Conversely, this study allowed probationers to talk about their experiences of probation supervision in Hong Kong in semi-structured interviews. Their first-hand accounts indicated that probationers had much to contribute to the evaluation process and their voices should be heard by practitioners and policymakers in order to improve probation practice.     

A recidivism analysis of Maryland's community probation program

This study employed a type of quasi-experimental research design that compared a sample of offenders who underwent community supervision (HotSpot) with a matched sample of offenders who underwent “normal” probation supervision (presample) in Maryland. In addition to examining the recidivism pattern of both offender groups, specific attention was also devoted to the potential inhibiting effects of social bonds. Twelve months of recidivism information was collected to include both rearrest and technical violations. Results suggested that the survival distribution (for both rearrest and technical violation) of HotSpot probationers was not significantly different from the survival distribution for pre-HotSpot probationers. In addition, probationer's level of “stakes in conformity” served to inhibit both measures of recidivism, suggesting that offenders with more social bonds were less likely to incur a rearrest or citation for a technical violation. Theoretical and policy implications are highlighted, as are directions for future research.     

THE EFFECT OF IMPRISONMENT ON RECIDIVISM RATES OF FELONY OFFENDERS: A FOCUS ON DRUG OFFENDERS*

The purpose of this study is to evaluate the deterrent effect of imprisonment. Using data on offenders convicted of felonies in 1993 in Jackson County (Kansas City), Missouri, we compare recidivism rates for offenders sentenced to prison with those for offenders placed on probation. We find no evidence that imprisonment reduces the likelihood of recidivism. Instead, we find compelling evidence that offenders who are sentenced to prison have higher rates of recidivism and recidivate more quickly than do offenders placed on probation. We also find persuasive evidence that imprisonment has a more pronounced criminogenic effect on drug offenders than on other types of offenders.     

Risk of sexual recidivism as a function of age and actuarial risk

Abstract

The study of risk for sexual recidivism has undergone substantial development in recent years. The foundation for advances in this area has been the use of actuarial measures to identify subgroups of offenders with different observed rates of sexual re-offending over time. An unresolved issue within this research area has been the moderating function of age in the assessment of risk. The current study examined sexual re-offending as a function of age and actuarial risk in a large sample of sexual offenders released from prison between 1990 and 2004. There was an overall decrease in the rate of sexual re-offending over the age of 50. However, a small group of offenders from the higher actuarial risk categories of the older age groups continued to re-offend at higher rates than their lower-risk peers.     

USING RANDOM JUDGE ASSIGNMENTS TO ESTIMATE THE EFFECTS OF INCARCERATION AND PROBATION ON RECIDIVISM AMONG DRUG OFFENDERS*

Most prior studies of recidivism have used observational data to estimate the causal effect of imprisonment or probation on the probability that a convicted individual is rearrested after release. Few studies have taken advantage of the fact that, in some jurisdictions, defendants are assigned randomly to judges who vary in sentencing tendencies. This study investigates whether defendants who are assigned randomly to more punitive judges have different recidivism probabilities than defendants who are assigned to relatively lenient judges. We track 1,003 defendants charged with drug-related offenses who were assigned randomly to nine judicial calendars between June 1, 2002 and May 9, 2003. Judges on these calendars meted out sentences that varied substantially in terms of prison and probation time. We tracked defendants using court records across a 4-year period after the disposition of their cases to determine whether they subsequently were rearrested. Our results indicate that randomly assigned variations in prison and probation time have no detectable effect on rates of rearrest. The findings suggest that, at least among those facing drug-related charges, incarceration and supervision seem not to deter subsequent criminal behavior.     

Identifying Three Types of Violent Offenders and Predicting Violent Recidivism While on Probation: A Classification Tree Analysis

This study employs classification tree analysis (CTA) to address whether 3 groups of violent offenders have similar or different risk factors for violent recidivism while on probation. A sample of 1344 violent offenders on probation was classified as generalized aggressors (N = 302), family only aggressors (N = 321), or nonfamily only aggressors (N = 717). The strongest predictor of violent recidivism while on probation was whether the offender was a generalized aggressor or not, with generalized aggressors more likely to be arrested for new violent crimes. Prior arrests for violent crimes predicted violent recidivism of generalized aggressors, but did not significantly predict violent recidivism of family only and nonfamily only aggressors. For generalized aggressors and family only batterers, treatment noncompliance was an important risk predictor of violent recidivism. CTA compared to logistic regression classified a higher percentage of cases into low-risk and high-risk groups, provided higher improvement in classification accuracy of violent recidivists beyond chance performance, and provided a better balance of false positives and false negatives. The implications for the risk assessment and domestic violence literature are discussed.     

The effectiveness of felony probation: Results from an eastern state

Data from New Jersey were used to examine the effectiveness of felony probation. Examination of more than 2,000 burglars, robbers, and controlled substance offenders placed on probation in 1976–1977 showed that their recidivism at three, four, and approximately 10 years after sentencing ranged from approximately one-third to more than half arrested and about 10 percent imprisoned. Prior convictions, type of offense, age, race, the Greenwood prediction device, use of heroin, and employment were statistically significant correlates of recidivism. The major conclusion is that probation is an acceptable sentencing alternative for some felony offenders in some states but that recidivism rates can be alarmingly high for particular categories of offenders. In addition, probation officials should devote some attention to the needs of probationers in such problem areas as employment and drug abuse.     

Psychopathy, treatment behavior, and recidivism: an extended follow-up of Seto and Barbaree

Seto and Barbaree reported the unexpected finding that adult male sex offenders who scored higher on psychopathy and exhibited better behavior in treatment were almost four times more likely to commit a new serious offence than other offenders once released. The present study reexamined this sample after a longer follow-up time using more complete recidivism data from a national police database. Although psychopathy continued to be a significant predictor of general and serious recidivism, treatment behavior was no longer related to either general or serious recidivism, and there was no statistically significant interaction between psychopathy and treatment behavior. Additional analyses ruled out the possibility that the differences between studies could be accounted for by the different average length of follow-up. A direct comparison of the two sources of recidivism data showed that differences in recidivism between subgroups were reduced by using the more complete recidivism data.     

Community Solutions for the Community's Problem: An Evaluation of Three New Zealand Community-Based Treatment Programs for Child Sexual Offenders

The recidivism rate of 203 people mandated by the courts to attend three community-based child sexual offender treatment programs (175 treatment cases and 28 assessment-only cases) was assessed and compared with a probation comparison group. The recidivism rate was 8.1% for all participants treated in the community-based programs and 5.2% for participants who completed treatment. The recidivism rate for program attendees was approximately half that of those in the probation comparison group. The drop-out rate for treatment appears to be relatively high (45%) and noncompletion was associated with higher recidivism. These results indicate significantly better outcomes for offenders receiving specialized treatment and are consistent with, and toward the lower end of, recidivism rates reported in local and international evaluation studies.     

Coordinated Community Intervention for Domestic Abusers: Intervention System Involvement and Criminal Recidivism

This study examined prosecution and post-prosecution elements of a coordinated community intervention approach to male perpetrators of adult domestic violence. In a sample of 235 cases, recidivism was assessed from official criminal justice data during a 12- to 18-month period after cases were initially handled by the Baltimore, Maryland State's Attorney's Domestic Violence Unit. Court orders for domestic violence counseling were associated with significantly lower criminal recidivism for battery or violation of a civil order of protection. Lower criminal recidivism was also associated with the cumulative effects of successful prosecution, probation monitoring, receiving a court order to counseling, attending counseling intake, and completion of counseling. Individuals with greater involvement in this intervention system had lower recidivism rates, even though offenders with more extensive abuse histories experienced more intervention. Results provide qualified support for coordinated community intervention for domestic violence perpetrators.     

“Clean up and go straight”: Effects of drug treatment on recidivism among felony probationers

The central question we address in this article is whether participation in court-ordered drug treatment programs reduces future criminal involvement among convicted property offenders who have a history of drug abuse. Using a national sample of male property offenders sentenced to felony probation, we analyze drug treatment experience on probationers’ recidivism rates by employing proportional hazards techniques. Results indicate that how successful white men are in completing courtordered drug treatment programs has no significant effect on their recidivism rates. However, AfricanAmerican and Hispanic men who satisfy the expectations of their drug treatment programs are significantly less likely to be rearrested. Overall, our findings support the contention that drug treatment reduces further criminal behavior among men on probation for felony property offenses. Thus, we recommend that court service personnel strive to provide drug treatment programs for property offenders with a history of drug abuse and that supervisors closely monitor probationers’ activities while in treatment to assure lower rates of recidivism. An earlier version of this paper was presented at the annual meeting of the Midwest Sociological Society in Chicago in April 1996.     

Reducing juvenile recidivism with cognitive training and a cell phone follow-up: an evaluation of the realvictory program

The purpose of this research was to evaluate the effects of a cognitive training and cell phone intervention on the recidivism of 70 juvenile offenders. Median days to rearrest were 106 for the control group, 191 for the class-only group, and 278 for the class plus cell phone group. Using rearrest as the survival criterion, the survival ratios of the class-only and class plus cell phone groups were 2.64 and 2.94 times longer than the control group, respectively. After controlling for gender, prior arrests, and risk score, the Poisson regression indicated that the class-only and class plus cell phone groups were 51% lower in total arrests than the control group. These results suggest that cognitive training supplemented with a cell phone coach is an effective and cost-efficient intervention for reducing recidivism.     

A follow-up study of sex offenders treated by Thames Valley Sex Offender Groupwork Programme, 1995–1999

The following paper is a reconviction study of 183 sex offenders treated by the Thames Valley Project between 1995 and 1999. Some demographic details are provided about the sample. Subjects were monitored for a mean of 3.9 years. A total of 10 subjects (5.4% of total) were reconvicted for a further sexual offence. A further 19 men (10.3%) either had allegations made against them or committed a behaviour that may have involved or been the preparation for further sexual offending, defined here as “recidivism”. Details about post-treatment behaviour were drawn from three sources: two national police databases which indicated any formal sexual reconviction and the files kept on each sex offender registered with Thames Valley Project (TVSOGP), a multi-funded community-based sex offender treatment programme. The pre-treatment re-conviction risk status of each man was calculated using part one of the Risk Matrix 2000 algorithm (static factors). Risk levels were compared for those where reconviction, re-offending or recidivism was identified and those where it was not and a correlation was found in the predicted direction although this was not statistically significant. The advantages and limitations of this kind of follow-up study are discussed, together with some recommendations for future research.     

The effects of specialized probation and recovery management checkups (RMCs) on treatment participation,substance use,HIV risk behaviors,and recidivism among female offenders: main findings of a 3-year experiment using subject by intervention interaction analysis

Objectives

To examine the effects of specialized probation and recovery management checkups (RMCs) on participation in substance use treatment, substance use, HIV risk behaviors, and recidivism.

Methods

Women (n?=?480) released from the Cook County Jail’s Department of Women’s Justice Services were randomly assigned to either an RMC or control condition and interviewed quarterly for 3 years (greater than 90% completion per wave). At the beginning of each quarter, women were classified as currently on probation (n?=?1984) or not (n?=?2516). Current probation (subject) and experimental condition (intervention nested within probation status) at the beginning of the quarter were used to predict outcomes in the next quarter. Data included self-reports, urinalysis findings, and county and state arrest records.

Results

In the quarter after being on probation (or not), women offenders reported higher rates of participation in substance use treatment and recovery support services, as well as lower rates of substance use and HIV risk behaviors. Nevertheless, they were more likely to commit crimes and be rearrested or reincarcerated. During quarters when the women were not on probation, RMCs were associated with significant increases in participation in substance use treatment and significant reductions in substance use and HIV risk behaviors. However, RMCs had no additional quarterly benefits when women were on probation. Higher levels of substance use treatment, self-help engagement, and reduced substance use predicted reduced recidivism.

Conclusions

This study demonstrates the effects of specialized probation and RMCs (when not on probation) on favorable outcomes for criminally involved women with substance use disorders.

     

Recidivism in Stalking and Obsessional Harassment

Despite the rapidly growth of mental health attention focused on the phenomenon of stalking, no empirical research to date has attempted to assess the frequency of repeat offending or attempted to identify predictors of recidivism. A total of 148 stalking and harassment offenders who were court-ordered to undergo a mental health evaluation were followed for a period of 2.5–13 years in order to assess the frequency of repeat offenses and the variables that differentiated high versus low risk offenders. Recidivism data were obtained from a variety of sources, including criminal justice records, mental health records, and reports from probation officers and victims. A number of potential predictor variables were selected on the basis of the existing recidivism literature in other criminal justice populations. Frequency analysis were used to identify variables that significantly differentiated offenders who did and did not reoffend while survival analysis was used to analyze the impact of these covariates on time to reoffense. A total of 49% of the offenders reoffended during the follow-up period, 80% of whom reoffended during the first year. The strongest predictors of recidivism included the presence of a personality disorder, and in particular, a Cluster B personality disorder (i.e., antisocial, borderline, and/or narcissistic). In addition, those offenders with both a personality disorder and a history of substance abuse were significantly more likely to reoffend compared to either of these risk factors alone. Surprisingly, the presence of a delusional disorder (e.g., erotomania) was associated with a lower risk of reoffender. The findings are discussed in terms of the legal system and treatment implications.     

What has worked and what has not with Minnesota sex offenders: a review of the evidence

Abstract

Since the early 1990s, many states in the USA have attempted to control sexual offending and, more narrowly, sexual recidivism by implementing longer prison sentences for sex crimes, sex offender registration and notification, residency restrictions, involuntary civil commitment and lifetime probation and parole. The early 1990s also marked the beginning of a decline in official rates of sexual offending, including sexual recidivism. This study reviews recent research conducted on Minnesota sex offenders in an effort to identify which policies, programmes and practices might have contributed to the drop in sexual recidivism rates that have been observed over the last few decades. By assessing what has, and has not, worked with Minnesota sex offenders, this study discusses how lessons learned from the Minnesota experience may apply to broader efforts within the USA and abroad to control sexual offending.     

Criminal recidivism in sexual homicide perpetrators

Forensic psychiatric reports on 166 sexual homicide perpetrators in Germany were retrospectively analyzed for criminal risk factors. Follow-up information about release and reconvictions from federal criminal records was available for 139 offenders; 90 (64.7%) had been released. The estimated recidivism rate (Kaplan-Meier analyses) for 20 years at risk was 23.1% for sexual and 18.3% for nonsexual violent reoffences. Three men (3.3%) were reconvicted for attempted or completed homicide. Only young age at the time of sexual homicide resulted in higher sexual recidivism, whereas increased nonsexual violent recidivism was related to previous sexual and nonsexual delinquency, psychopathic symptoms, and higher scores in risk assessment instruments. Increased recidivism with any violent reoffence was associated with age-related factors: young age at first sexual offence, at homicide, and at release and duration of detention. The impacts of the results for risk assessment, relapse prevention, and supervision are discussed.