2004年台湾"总统"选举选情评估与展望

2004年台湾"总统"选举是决定台湾蓝绿政治版图变化和政党结构重组的"世纪大战".为了赢得选战胜利,蓝绿双方都押上了全部身家性命,全力投入这场生死拼杀.尽管这场选战到目前为止仍是势均力敌的"割喉战",选情呈拉锯和胶着状态,最后究竟鹿死谁手还难以预知,但这次选举结果无疑将不仅决定今后台湾各派政治势力的消长,更关系到未来台湾政局和台湾前途走向,并将对两岸关系的发展产生重大影响.     

布什对华政策中的"蓝军"阴影

布什上台前后崛起于美国政坛的"蓝军"运动是美国国会和媒体反华逆流的策源地,也是布什对华政策转向强硬的驱动力."蓝军"广泛的社会基础和巨大的政治能量使其对中美关系的消极影响不容低估.本文对"蓝军"的组成、主要活动及反华战略做了较深入的考察,在此基础上,对布什政府的对华政策进行了评估.     

观念与实力:美国"修正主义"对日观的兴衰

本文从考察20世纪80年代末90年代初美国"修正主义"对日观的兴衰的背景及其对美国对日政策特别是美国对日贸易政策的影响入手,对观念因素在国际政治中的作用,以及观念因素与实力因素之间的关系进行了初步探讨.本文肯定观念因素在国际政治中的重要作用,但认为这种作用只有结合实力因素才能得到更好的理解,力量对比的变化通常构成观念因素发生作用的条件.实力因素和观念因素相结合,可以使我们对这一时期美日关系的变化有一个更深入、更全面的理解.     

鸠山"友爱"思想的形成及其对日本新亚洲政策的影响

受家族、西方和同僚的影响,鸠山形成了以"友爱"思想为内核的政治哲学.出任首相后,鸠山基于"友爱"外交思想,推出了以积极的历史观和"东亚共同体"新构想为主要内容的新亚洲政策.这些政策无疑在营造与亚洲邻国的政治互信方面起着正面作用.但是,由于日本内部政治因素、日美关系的变化以及中日地区利益着眼点的不同,鸠山政府的"东亚共同体"新构想前景不容乐观.     

印度"东向"政策的发展及意义

印度"东向"政策始于冷战结束国际体系经历重大震荡的时期,经过十数年的实施,随着印度力量的发展,已然进入"第二阶段",即在与东南亚恢复和建立合作的平台上,跳出严重限制印度战略选择的次大陆政治局限,向亚太地区扩散,从而使"东向"政策具有更明显的地缘政治与战略选择的导向."东向"政策泛义化与印度追求的全球大国目标密切相关.这对包括中国在内的亚太地区大国显然有着重要的政策意义.     

"9·11"事件后的德国--反应与影响

本文简要介绍了美国"9·11"恐怖袭击事件后德国政府在内政、外交及军事等方面的反应,并对"9·11"事件在政治和经济方面对德国的近期影响作了分析与展望.     

"9·11"事件后的中国周边安全形势分析

"9·11"恐怖袭击的血腥和残暴改变了布什政府对安全威胁的认知,打击国际恐怖活动成为美国对外政策的重点."9·11"事件后,美国加强了其在亚太地区的军事、政治存在,影响力大大增强.本文认为,美国安全战略的变化与军事部署的调整一方面为中美关系的发展提供了机遇,另一方面对中国的周边安全带来了一些不利影响.     

"全球地域化"语境下东亚共同体如何"文学"?

在"全球化"、"地域化"大潮共同冲击下,东亚地域客观上必须思考共同的文化防卫及文化建设策略.东亚共同体不只是政治、外交、经济、军事层面的问题,还包括在文学领域我们应该如何开展平等对话,建立共同的话语空间以实行网络作业的迫切命题.只有在此基础之上,才能重新书写本地域文学史,建构地域的敞开的文学理论体系,丰富东亚文学形式与内涵,确立在世界文学中的主体地位.     

当代俄罗斯政党政治价值的区分(1999-2003)

政党政治价值是关于政党的组织原则和社会政治现实建设的基本概念,政党以其政治价值标准指导其政治活动的方向.本文拟从政党政治价值区分的角度以俄罗斯1999年和2003年国家杜马选举为例对当代俄罗斯政党的发展进行初步探讨.直到2003年,俄罗斯各政党政治价值区分仍不明显,俄罗斯政党制度仍在发展的过程中.     

美欧"跨大西洋对话"及其对中国的影响

本文分析了以应对中国崛起为目的的美欧"跨大西洋对话",指出美欧在对华关系上的一致与分歧.文章认为,美欧"跨大西洋对话"是中美欧三边关系的晴雨表.在此三边关系中,美欧关系仍是最紧密的一组双边关系,中美欧之间尚存在较深的分歧与猜疑,而中美关系则一定意义上使中欧关系复杂化.美欧"跨大西洋对话"对中国及中美欧三边关系具有深刻影响.为了最大限度地发挥"跨大西洋对话"的积极影响,中国在处理对美、对欧关系问题时,就要着重加强中欧关系,并进而推动中美关系的发展.     

Seeking the Soul of Democracy: A Review of Recent Research into Citizens' Political Talk Culture

This article provides a review of extant empirical research on ordinary citizens' everyday political communication, its phenomenology, determinants, consequences, and relevance for democratic politics. It highlights the recent upsurge in interest in the study of political conversations against the background of both classic and more recent developments in democratic theory and empirical research that served as intellectual inspirations. The article discusses conceptual and methodological issues of research into interpersonal political communication and presents key findings with regard to the background and consequences of political talk, tapping into fundamental aspects of democratic citizenship such as political preferences, participation, cognitive involvement with politics as well as orientations towards fellow citizens and towards the democratic political system. It concludes with an assessment of the state of the art in this field of study, highlighting desirable avenues for future empirical research.     

The Politics of Professionalism in Russia

A political scientist examines the ways in which the word "professional" constructs group identities in the world of politics. Applying discourse analysis to 34 texts generated by interviews with prominent members of Russia's political class in the Gorbachev, first and second Yel'tsin, and Putin administrations as well as the democratic opposition, this article seeks to determine how the word "professional" has been used by past and present members of Russia's political class. Two opposing discourses that constitute its meanings are outlined. The study's results are framed in a dynamic model of change in Soviet and Russian political communication.     

Calidad democrática en América Latina: ¿proyecto o utopía?

While recognizing the heuristic limits of the concept “democratic quality” this article argues that measuring democracy over time is the most adequate way to identify, discuss and analyze its presence in every country. “Democratic quality” sheds new light on both concept elaboration and empirical studies because it synthetizes two political processes that have developed in the region in the last twenty five years: democratic transition and democratic consolidation. This category allows us to define the current state of Latin American countries in terms of their institutional and societal development of democratic life. We can thus, at least in theory, observe and propose an integrated improvement of existing political regimes in a context in which modern representative democracies are reorganized in terms of their new attributes and rights. Based on these premises, this article proposes two interrelated paths of analysis: a) considering the model of “democratic quality” to analyze Latin American democracies and characterize their present problems; and b) examining the relevance of this model’s heuristic power. The main thesis holds that not even the most visible long or short-term transformations undergone by our democratic political legal codes, since its inception, are sufficient in and of themselves to bring us closer to the democratic quality model, or in other words, to the basis of a democratic State of law.     

Asia’s Conservative Moment: Understanding the Rise of the Right

ABSTRACT

Recent scholarship has identified a new era of post-democracy or democratic crisis in the West, characterised by the increasing resort to authoritarian measures and the erosion of mechanisms such as representative parties and unions that link citizens and social forces with the political process. Conservative political movements, right-wing governments and populism have also emerged in the democratic states of the Asia-Pacific. The existing literature, with its focus on the crisis of social democratic institutions and forms of representative politics, provides inadequate frameworks for explaining these trends in the region. This article suggests that a better way of understanding the emergence of these new forms of political regime in Asia is to locate the origins of democratic crises in processes of global capitalist transformation and political incorporation and disincorporation. The articles in this special issue show that previously dominant modes of incorporation are fracturing under the conditions of neo-liberal capitalist transformation. In the wake of this fracturing, political elites have struggled to created new forms of political incorporation. This has inadvertently resulted in the sharpening of the conditions that give rise to political crisis. The political responses to crises have predominantly been conservative and have led to attempts to restructure the state to limit dissent and electoral competition.     

The Response to Terrorism as a Threat to Liberal Democracy

When dealing with terrorism as a threat to liberal democracy, it is a common assumption that it is the terrorists — who by definition refuse the rules of the liberal democratic "game"— who pose the greatest threat to the underlying principles and freedoms that are enshrined in this form of political life. However, in instances where the state fails to ensure that its response to terrorism is limited, well-defined and controlled, it is likely that institutionalised counter-terrorist policies will pose an even greater threat to the political and civil traditions that are central to the liberal democratic way of life. This paper demonstrates the potential danger by examining three cases when counter-terrorist policies initiated by (supposedly) liberal democratic entities came dangerously close to transplanting subversive terror from "below" with institutionalised, bureaucratised terror from "above": the "strategy of tension" initiated in Italy between 1969 and 1974; the Spanish "dirty war" against ETA between 1983 and 1987; and the abandonment of democratic rule in Peru between 1992 and 1996. The paper concludes that ultimately the effectiveness of the liberal democratic state's response to terrorism depends on its acceptability. It is therefore paramount that any solution which is initiated is made with due regard to the long term impact that it will have on the wider process of liberal democratic life.     

Taiwan: National Identity and Democratization,by Alan M. Wachman

Abstract

How does the national identity problem affect the process of democratization? Is consensus on national identity a prerequisite for democratization? Alan Wachman writes about the most intractable problem in Taiwan and its implications for understanding democratization in general. He contends that previous studies suggesting the importance of a consensus on national identity for building a democratic system are inapplicable to Taiwan. From 1991 to 1993 Wachman interviewed prominent political figures and scholars of various backgrounds in Taiwan regarding five general questions: (I) Is it possible to distinguish between Chinese culture and Taiwanese culture? What are the sources of cultural identity for Taiwanese and Mainlanders? (2) How should we regard China in the present era? Is it a culture, a people, or a place? (3) To what degree is democracy compatible with Chinese culture? (4) How should the matter of Taiwan's political status be resolved? Is democracy a means or an end? (5) To what degree does the inability to resolve the matter of national identity impede the development of democracy in Taiwan?     

台湾政党政治的腐败与政治转型

近二十年来,金钱政治以一种看似矛盾和不自觉的方式,破坏着台湾执政党和政府及官员的政治形象、权力结构和统治基础,以一种潜在的力量推动着它们的政党政治和政治体制由一元的模式向多元的模式变化,从而加快了多元政治的发展;同时,在巩固民主的过程中,它以一种瓦解体制的形式阻碍着民主制度的形成和稳定.进一步来说,这种腐败在政党政治和政治发展的不同阶段可以产生不同的作用,它或是在巩固政治转型阶段推动政治转型和民主化,或是在巩固民主的阶段推动或阻碍民主的发展,但其总的表现形式都是瓦解体制.     

The Russian Dance with Democracy

An American political scientist investigates whether, and how, the political and economic values of ordinary Russians have changed. The study is based on a three-wave panel survey of a representative national sample of Russians, conducted between 1996 and 2000. The article considers the degree to which democratic commitments have solidified over the last half of the decade. The article also tests the conventional wisdom that democratic values are dependent upon perceptions of a successful economy.     

The struggle for Korea's national rights

This article assesses the role played by Indonesian capitalists in the country's new democratic political system. It takes as its starting point the analysis presented by Richard Robison in his influential 1986 book, Indonesia: The Rise of Capital . Robison saw the authoritarian state as central to capitalist class formation, viewing it as midwife and protector of an emergent business class. Though democratisation was not his primary concern, this analysis made him pessimistic about the prospects of democratic change. Over the intervening years, Indonesia has not only undergone democratisation; its capitalist class has also changed significantly. The article notes elements of continuity in the nature of Indonesian capital (including the continuing weight of politically vulnerable ethnic Chinese business interests) as well as change (including the taking of political office by businesspeople and the strengthening of provincial business). Overall, there is now much greater independence of private capital vis-à-vis the state, even if business-state relations are still characterised by patterns that developed during authoritarian rule, including the clientelist and predatory behaviours that have been the subject of much analysis in post-Suharto Indonesia. A focus on the capitalist class and its enmeshment in state power, in the style pioneered by Robison, thus helps explain continuity between Indonesia's authoritarian past and its new democratic order, especially the continuing ubiquity of corruption and patronage. However, such a focus is less useful in accounting for political change, especially democratisation itself. To explain democratisation we need to broaden our class analytical optic to bring into focus the actions and interests of lower and middle class forces.     

越南的人际信任价值观与国家政制

人际信任价值观被越来越多学者认为与国家政制有着密切的关系,特别是社会资本等理论,甚至认为人际信任与现代民主社会政制是正相关关系,是影响现代民主社会政制的重要变量之一。然而,现实的数据表明,虽然越南的国家政制民主指数并不高,但是,越南的人际信任价值观却非常高。为此,本文试图以越南为例,对人际信任价值观做出具体的分析,指出人际信任价值观不应该一概而论,其中的熟人信任和陌生人信任会对国家政制产生不同的影响,因而要对人际信任价值观与国家政制之间的关系做出更为细致的界定,才能提高理论的适用性。