货币政策传导机制有效性的理论与实证研究

本文通过数学模型的构建,综合分析了公众信心、商业银行的逐利行为以及货币政策时滞影响下的市场博弈行为对货币政策传导机制有效性的影响,并进一步通过实证分析论证了影响我国当前货币政策传导机制有效性的主要原因,为如何提高货币政策传导机制的有效性提供了政策思路。     

中国货币政策传导机制实证研究

对货币政策传导机制效应的研究有助于更好解决货币政策实施过程中存在的问题。本文拟采用建立在非平稳时间序列基础上的经济时序分析方法,从动态角度检验中国货币政策的各分渠道传导机制效应,并对从金融机构资产负债角度界定的货币机制与信贷机制进行了效应及时滞比较研究,借以为未来货币政策走向提供相应政策建议。     

影子银行业务对中国货币政策传导机制的影响

影子银行业务的大规模发展会弱化一国货币政策的调控效果。有必要准确界定影子银行业务范围,测算其规模,分析影子银行业务如何从信贷、利率、资产价格等方面影响中国货币政策的传导机制。运用结构向量自回归(SVAR)模型对影子银行业务影响我国货币政策传导的实证研究结果表明:目前,影子银行信贷传导机制是影响我国货币政策效果的主要渠道,影子银行利率传导机制不畅通,影子银行资产价格传导机制作用不明朗。     

黄金市场的货币政策传导机制研究

黄金市场的货币政策传导机制包括：建设黄金存储托管系统,发行黄金存托凭证;央行对黄金存托凭证进行公开市场操作,商业银行成为央行的交易对手;商业银行作为黄金做市商通过调整黄金信用来调整货币的流动性。黄金市场的货币政策传导机制构建完成后,将会对我国的货币政策工具、货币政策体系和货币政策传导效率带来改善。     

完善人民银行流动性管理的建议

进入21世纪以来,我国银行体系流动性呈现持续宽松状态,特别是近年来,出现了流动性过剩的局面。流动性泛滥问题给人民银行货币政策操作带来了巨大压力。如何有效管理银行体系流动性,疏通货币政策传导机制,进而提高货币政策有效性,就成为一个越来越重要的现实问题。一、流动性管理的相关概念     

货币政策效率与资本市场的相关性研究

通过研究货币政策效率与资本市场的相关性,进而分析货币政策如何促进资本市场的发展,以及资本市场对货币政策的传导机制如何发生作用,可以为进一步促使货币政策的效率与资本市场发展之间的良性互动,产生良好作用。     

浅议我国货币政策的金融传导

近年来,货币政策作为宏观调控的重要组成部分,对我国经济发展作出了一定的贡献,但是,其效果并不理想。本文从我国货币政策的传导效率出发,阐述我国货币政策效应不显著的原因在于传导机制存在阻滞,其实质是货币政策不能有效地从金融领域传递至实质经济领域。因此,要求央行的货币政策有效地调控经济运行,促进经济增长,适度放松金融监管、疏通货币政策的传导机制、保持银行体系的正常运行应是基本的选择。     

国有商业银行存在的问题及其原因分析

我国四大国有商业银行在经营中已经出现了不良资产率高、资本充足率低、经营业务利润率低、传导货币政策的机制不通畅等一系列问题,在加入WTO后逐步放开对外资银行的限制的形势下,还会遇到更大的挑战。影响我国国有商业银行竞争力的两个因素,一个是内部的国有商业银行产权因素,另一个就是外部的利率管制因素。     

中国建筑业经济波动的拓展性分析

经济周期理论中的＂冲击—传导＂学说,有助于诠释宏观经济周期波动及其形成机制,但对于探索中国建筑业经济波动的运行机制而言,该学说存在一定的局限性。本文基于＂冲击—传导＂学说的拓展性阐述结论,确立了中国建筑业经济波动运行机制的组织构架,即由外部冲击机制、内在形成机制和传导机制等三个方面有机构成。     

论有效治理通货紧缩的货币政策

本文通过全面分析货币政策与通货紧缩的关系以及货币政策工具的选择 ,对通货紧缩这一经济效果的传导机制和可能在实施中遇到的不利因素的论证 ,提出了运用货币政策来治理通货紧缩的有效途径。     

基于VECM模型的中国货币政策调控房地产价格的有效性分析

该文从货币政策传导理论出发,选取货币供应量、利率、商品房销售价格指数建立向量误差修正模型（VECM）,运用Johansen协整分析、Granger因果检验等方法,对货币政策调控房地产价格的有效性进行分析。结果表明,长期来看,货币政策对房地产价格具有一定的调控效果;短期内,货币供应量变化对房价的影响相对较大,而利率调整不是调控房价的有效手段;利率政策有较长时滞,但对房价波动的贡献度大于货币供应量。     

Monetary Policy Proving Effective

Hu Xiaolian,Vice Governor of the People's Bank of China,the country's central bank,published an article concerning China's managed floating exchange rate regime and the effectiveness of the monetary policy on the bank's website on July 26.She pointed out monetary policy,as an important instrument of China's macroeconomic control,has faced many challenges in recent years.A more flexible exchange rate regime will help improve the effectiveness of the policy.     

Changing Money Market and Monetary Policy Operations in China: an institutional perspective

This paper uses an institutional perspective to examine the changing monetary policy operations in China since the 1978 reform. It shows that the establishment of money markets has enabled the central bank to shift its policy approach of direct control over credits to a set of indirect monetary tools. Under the constraint of exchange rate stability and other institutional factors, the effectiveness of these indirect tools is limited. Establishing an interbank money market policy rate through SHIBOR will provide a means of signaling the cost of funds to banks and the public. Its success in China is conditional on improved corporate governance and the competitive structure of banks, increased flexibility in its exchange rate determination, and a more cost-conscious state sector.     

稳健的货币政策与人民币汇率走向

1998年以来我国实施的与积极财政政策相适应的稳健货币政策,在保持人民币币值稳定,促进经济增长方面取得了明显成效但也遇到了新的问题。当前人民币汇率继1998年之后再次成为世人关注的焦点,就此本文认为人民币远期升值是一种必然趋势,人民币近期是否升值需视市场状况而定。     

中国金融发展如何才能做到为实体经济服务

该文指出，应对未来严峻挑战最关键的步骤就是要尽快发展和健全中国的金融体系，而不能像过去那样过度仰仗货币政策被动的对冲手段来缓解。该文提出了“企业家金融”、“关系型金融”、“供应链金融”、“财富金融”、“消费金融”、“政府金融”、“国家金融”和“全球化金融”等不同的改革与发展模式来适应中国经济转型各个环节对金融服务的紧迫要求。     

传承与发展：关于我国经侦运行机制的思考

改革开放30年来经济犯罪形势发生剧变的同时,我国经侦运行机制也随之不断完善。进入21世纪,现行经侦运行机制的不足之处日益显现,主要表现为警令不畅致使国家打击经济犯罪的决策难以彻底落实、执法活动中的地方保护主义异常严重、对经济犯罪的打防难以形成常态化的高压态势。为此,必须通过规范地方各级经侦机构建设、在全国范围内设置垂直领导的中央经侦机构等创新性举措完善现有经侦运行机制,从而以制度创新化解当前经侦部门面对的空前挑战。     

An Exploratory Analysis of Impediments to China's Credit Control on the Real Estate Industry: an institutional perspective

To curb price speculations and overheated investment in the real estate market, the mainland Chinese government has determined to tighten bank lending to the market in recent years, by resorting to administrative tools through specific real estate control policy. With hindsight, the market response seems to have invalidated the policy initiatives. This research is aimed at investigating the impediments to achieving the laudable policy objectives of using administrative credit controls. A series of research interviews with property practitioners unraveled prevalent evasive practices and illicit tactics adopted by developers to thwart policy effects. This study leads to a better understanding of the institutional backdrop behind the less-than-expected results of the real estate macro-control measures. To better steer the real estate market, effective monetary control requires both the government and industry to make concerted efforts and consistent headway towards a complete, transparent and responsive ensemble of institutional arrangements.     

No-Win Credit Situation

The People's Bank of China,the central bank,published a report on the execution of monetary policy in the second quarter,saying there aremany difficulties and challenges confronting the Chinese economy.Lu Zhengwei,a senior economist at Industrial Bank Co.Ltd.,examined the report and pointed out the excessive bank lending in the first half of this year may give rise to serious loan problems.He shared his view in the China Securities Journal.Edited excerpts follow     

MARKET WATCH

While the stock markets regain their momentum this year,China's securities regulators have issued new rules for public list-ings of start-up enterprises.Chinese fund management firms had their most difficult year on record in 2008,losing a total of 1.5 trillion yuan($219 billion) because of the meltdowns in the domestic stock markets.The country's central bank is sticking to its appropriately accommoda-tive monetary policy by refraining from withdrawing cash from the open market and issuing fewer central ba...