Effect of tourism on economic growth of Sri Lanka: accounting for capital per worker,exchange rate and structural breaks

We explore the nexus between tourism, exchange rate and economic growth in Sri Lanka over the period 1980–2014. Using the augmented Solow (Q J Econ 70(1):65–94, 1956) framework and the ARDL bounds procedure whilst accounting for structural breaks using Bai and Perron (J Appl Econ 18(1):1–22, 2003) multiple break tests, the short-run and long-run association and impacts are examined. The results confirm the presence of a long-run association between tourism receipts (% of GDP), exchange rate, capital per worker and output per worker. The regression results show a 1% increase in tourism receipts results in a 0.03 and 0.06% increase in output per worker in the short-run and long-run, respectively. A unidirectional causality is noted from tourism to output per worker; from exchange rate to output per worker and capital per worker; and from output to capital, in per worker terms. Finally, we note that although structural breaks periods have negative association with economic growth, they are not statistically significant.     

An empirical testing of informational efficiency in Bangladesh capital market

We investigate how efficiently the stock market participants incorporate the information contained in money supply changes into stock prices in an emerging economy like Bangladesh. Of particular interest is to test how the changes in monetary aggregates directly affect the stock prices through asset changes and indirectly through their effects on real economic activity. We have considered the monthly series of the real stock returns (P) and examine the relationship between stock returns and monetary aggregates from 1980 to 2008. We also include the exchange rate of US dollar against Bangladeshi Taka and industrial production index. The presence of cointegration between stock prices and monetary aggregates indicate long-run predictability of the Bangladesh stock market. The short-run dynamics between monetary aggregates and real stock return, relied on theoretically motivated long-run restrictions, are analyzed using an empirical structural VAR model. The dynamic response of the real stock returns to changes in macroeconomic variables (such as broad money supply, exchange rates), particularly its lagged responses to real economic activity generates inefficiency in the Dhaka Stock Exchange. The findings of this article indicate that informational inefficiency exists in the stock market of Bangladesh due to the presence of unidirectional causality. To be efficient, the infrastructure of the SEC should be modernized, revaluation of the net asset value of the companies should be audited by the affiliated firms of the SEC, demutualization should be done as early as possible, private placement, issue of preference share and book building methods must be under rule based. Insider trading should be strictly prohibited.     

Testing Integration of Macroeconomic Time Series in Transitional Socialist Economies. A Modification of Perron Test

The presence of structural breaks reduces the power of integration tests. A number of methods were suggested to improve the statistical properties of integration tests in the presence of structural breaks. The most known are Perron tests, which allow to test for the level of integration of time series with one structural break. Perron tests allow for two types of structural breaks: additive outlier an innovative outlier. These tests are, however, not very useful in testing the level of integration of macroeconomic time series in countries in transition from centrally-planned to market economy. In such case one should expect two structural breaks to affect the time series: one at the beginning and one at the end of the transformation process. Test that allows for two additive outlier type structural breaks in time series is developed in this paper. This test has superior power as compared to standard Dickey-Fuller and Perron tests. This paper provides asymptotic distribution as well as finite sample properties of proposed test. Therefore practitioners receive a reliable tool for analyzing macroeconomic processes in transitional economies.     

Impacts of Monetary,Fiscal and Exchange Rate Policies on Output in China: A Var Approach

Applying the VAR model and using the interest rate as a monetary policy variable, we find that in the long run, output in China responds negatively to a shock to the interest rate, the real exchange rate, government debt, or the inflation rate, and it reacts positively to a shock to government deficits or lagged own output. When real M2 is chosen as a monetary policy variable, long-term output in China responds positively to a shock to real M2 or lagged own output, and it reacts negatively to a shock to the real exchange rate, government debt, or government deficits. Its response to a shock to the inflation rate is negative when government debt is used and is positive when government deficits are considered. In the short run, fiscal policy is more important than monetary policy in three out of four cases. In the long run, monetary policy is more influential than fiscal policy in three out of four cases. Therefore, the government may consider conducting monetary and fiscal policies differently in the short run and long run. The government needs to be cautious in pursuing deficit spending as its long-term impacts depend on the monetary variable employed. The policy of maintaining a relatively stable exchange rate is appropriate as the depreciation of the Yuan may hurt the economy in the short run.     

Is SADC an optimal currency area? Evidence from the generalized purchasing power parity test

In this paper we investigate the likelihood of a proposed monetary union in the Southern African Development Community (SADC) from the view point of the generalized purchasing power parity (GPPP) hypothesis and optimum currency area theory. We apply Johansen’s multivariate co-integration technique. The findings from this study confirm that GPPP holds among SADC member countries included in this study on account of cointegration and stationarity in real exchange rate series. South African rand normalized long run beta coefficients of all the real exchange rates are below one except in the case of the Mauritian rupee and all bear negative signs except in the case of the Angolan New Kwanza and Mauritian rupee. This is evidence that supports monetary union in the region except for Angola and Mauritius. Moreover, the panel cointegration tests also confirm the cointegration among real exchange rate series of SADC countries. However, the absolute magnitudes of the short run adjustment coefficients of SADC countries’ real exchange rates are low and bear positive signs in some cases. This finding implies that the observed slow speed of adjustment for (log) real exchange rate of SADC member states might constrain the effectiveness of stabilization policies in the wake of external shocks, rendering SADC countries vulnerable to macroeconomic instability in the region. This result has important policy implications for the proposed monetary union in SADC.     

Structural changes in Central and Eastern European economies: breaking news or breaking the ice?

This paper extends the sparse existing literature on structural breaks in emerging markets in Central and Eastern Europe by analyzing structural breaks in the intercept, trend and variance of monthly key macroeconomic variables, such as industrial production, inflation, monetary aggregates, nominal exchange rates and series related to the labor market. Using the Bayesian procedure developed by Wang and Zivot (2000, A Bayesian time series model of multiple structural changes in level, trend and variance. J Busi Econom 18:374–386), we provide strong evidence in favor of multiple structural breaks in the series under study. As most of the existing empirical literature on European emerging markets does not sufficiently deal with structural breaks, the instability found in this paper has important implications for macro-econometric modeling as well as the ensuing recommendations for economic policy.     

Has the SARB become more effective post inflation targeting?

This paper assesses the impact of a monetary policy shock on 15 key macroeconomic variables of South Africa, in the pre- and post-inflation targeting periods. For this purpose, we use a Factor-Augmented Vector Autoregressive (FAVAR) model comprising of 107 monthly time series over two equal sub-samples of 1989:01–1997:12 and 2000:01–2008:12. The results, based on impulse response functions, are in line with economic theory and indicate no puzzling effects often observed with small-scale monetary Vector Autoregressive (VAR) models. More importantly, we find that the ability of monetary policy in affecting key macroeconomic variables, including inflation, has increased in the post-targeting period. But, majority of the effects are insignificant, which could, however, also be due to the shorter-lengths of the sub-samples relative to the number of variables used in this study, rather than depicting the inability of monetary policy to significantly affect the South African economy.     

South Africa’s inflation persistence: a quantile regression framework

We study inflation persistence in South Africa using a quantile regression approach (We would like to thank two anonymous referees for many helpful comments. However, any remaining errors are solely ours). We control for structural breaks using a quantile structural break test on a long span of inflation data. Our study includes persistence estimates for headline and core inflation—thus controlling for possible biases emanating from extremely volatile periods. South Africa’s inflation persistence is lowest during the inflation targeting period regardless of the inflation measure. Inflation persistence is also constant over all quantiles during the inflation targeting regime for core inflation. There is a difference between the estimates from headline and core—headline persistence increases in relation to higher quantiles. Thus energy and food price shocks might de-stabilise inflation altogether.     

Impact of Currency Boards on Fiscal Policy in Central and Eastern European Countries

The paper focuses on the impact of currency boards on fiscal policy in transition economies. Starting with an overview of theoretical and empirical studies in the related area, it tests for the interaction between monetary policy regimes and fiscal policy in Central and Eastern European countries who aim for the membership in the European Union. The theoretical background of this study lies in the model of Tornell and Velasco (1998). They demonstrate that fiscal transfers do not ultimately depend on the chosen exchange rate and monetary policy, but only on the world's real rate of interest and the rate of time preference of the fiscal authority. A sample of 10 accession candidates constitutes a group of countries which go through similar macroeconomic stabilisation processes but have chosen different nominal anchors. The paper investigates whether there are any systematic differences between those countries with a currency board arrangement and those without. The empirical evidence suggests that currency boards enhance fiscal discipline in Central and Eastern European countries.     

China's exchange rate and the balance of trade

This paper examines the responsiveness of the balance of trade of the People's Republic of China to the real exchange rate. We find that, in both the short-run and the long-run, devaluation serves to improve the balance of trade. Using quarterly data for 1980:I to 1989:IV we show that the bulk of the response to devaluation occurs over a one year period, with noJ-curve effect. These results suggest that the two-tier price system and other measures to liberalize the Chinese economy have made the exchange rate an effective indirect tool for regulating trade.     

Managed Floating as a Monetary Policy Strategy

Although there seems to be a broad consensus among economists that purely floating or completely fixed exchange rates (the so-called corner solutions) are the only viable alternatives of exchange rate management, many countries do not behave according to this paradigm and adopt a strategy within the broad spectrum of exchange rate regimes that is limited by the two corner solutions. Many of these intermediate regimes are characterized by significant foreign exchange market interventions and a certain degree of exchange rate flexibility with non-preannounced exchange rate targets. While academic research in this area usually concentrates on some specific aspects of intermediate regimes (such as the effectiveness of interventions or institutional aspects), managed floating has rarely been analyzed as a comprehensive monetary policy strategy. In this paper, we present a monetary policy framework in which central banks simultaneously use the exchange rate and the interest rate as operating targets of monetary policy. We explain the mechanics of foreign exchange market interventions and sterilization and we explain why a central bank has an interest of controlling simultaneously the two operating targets. We derive the monetary policy rules for the two operating targets from a simple open economy macro model in which the uncovered interest parity condition and the monetary conditions index play a central role.     

Joining the ranks: South Africa on track to adopting DNA legislation

South Africa has recently been at the epicentre of a spate of horrific violence, with reports of rape and murder making headlines almost daily. Disturbingly regarded as the ‘rape capital of the world’, South Africa has never before required a more urgent need for the effective use of DNA profiling in aiding investigations as now. Although South Africa has conducted DNA profiling since 1998, there has been no supporting legislative framework for its use thus far. The ‘DNA Bill’ has recently been passed by Parliament and we reflect on the key events that have brought us to this milestone.The DNA Project, a non-profit organisation, has long been lobbying to pass such legislation, as well as providing free DNA awareness workshops to a variety of first-on-the-crime-scene personnel. As with all new DNA legislation, there arises an essential need to intensify training and awareness around the DNA process, from the crime scene to the court room, in order for the value of DNA evidence be realised. Enacting legislation is only a step on a journey to effectively utilise DNA profiling resources in a more intelligent manner and it is necessary that significant investment be continually made towards the improvement and advancement of this exceptional technology and tool.     

Historical Injuries,Temporality and the Law: Articulations of a Violent Past in Two Transitional Scenarios

This paper deals with the connections between historical injury and temporality in two transitional scenarios, and explores how the National Unity and Reconciliation Act of 1995 (South Africa) and the Justice and Peace Law of 2005 (Colombia) ‘articulate’ particular conceptions of ‘violence’ as well as conceive the prospect of an imagined new future. I argue that in trying to grasp the multiple dimensions of violence through different mechanisms, collective languages instituted by State-sponsored laws that seek ‘national reconciliation’ fail (in countries defined by historical, chronic dispossession) to render intelligible—at the very moment of their enunciation into a legal language—the structural dimensions of violence that are at the root of conflict itself. In this regard, the text concentrates on the ways in which difference and inequality—despite the promise of the newness reiterated by Transitional Justice paradigms—are woven together into a longue durée that lies beyond the theoretical contours and the technical mandates defined by and inherent to these laws.     

The Dutch Disease: evidences from Russia

The present study examines whether the Russian economy exhibits the symptoms of the Dutch Disease over the transition period begun in the early 1990s. Five warning signs have been detected, namely, a real exchange rate appreciation (1); a flourishing economic situation pushed by higher oil prices (2); a relative de-industrialisation (3); an export reduction in the non-booming-sector (4) and a real wage growth (5). The first three symptoms are estimated simultaneously in a VECM dimension. The results suggest the existence of three long-run cointegrating vectors, thus confirming the presence of the first three symptoms. Specifically, a 10% oil price shock leads to a real appreciation by 4%, a rise in GDP by 3% and a decline in domestic manufacturing production vis-à-vis service production by another 3%. Finally, a number of manufacturing exports have been crowded out and real wages have recorded important increases. To a certain extent, this corroborates the presence of symptom 4 and 5. The paper concludes that the risk of the Dutch Disease exists, and two preventive thrusts of action could be undertaken to reduce its threat: namely to diversify the economy and to hold back the appreciation of the exchange rate through targeted fiscal and monetary policies. These instruments would render Russia less vulnerable to exogenous shocks.     

Judicial Decisionmaking and the Use of Panels in the Canadian Supreme Court and the South African Appellate Division

Research on the U.S. Supreme Court suggests that judges' decisions are influenced by their policy preferences. Moreover, judges behave strategically to facilitate outcomes that conform as close as possible to those preferences. We seek to generalize this assertion to judicial actors in two very diverse social systems: Canada in the post-Charter years and apartheid-era South Africa. Specifically, we analyze the use of panel assignments by the chief justices in both countries. We find that chief justices do behave strategically. Chief justices in both countries do not assign judges to panels randomly but rather are influenced by the tenure and ideology of the sitting judges and the issues presented in the case.     

Polish Stabilization: What can we learn from the I(2) Cointegration Analysis?

This paper investigates an array of nominal systems for the Polish economy, of domestic price level, import prices, exchange rates, money stock, nominal wages, and real output, and conducts I(1) and I(2) cointegration analyses. Post-stabilization monthly data are used, 1991:5-1999:12. A test for the presence of a price-wage spiral is performed, and the stabilization package is compared to its realization. The long-run homogeneity hypothesis, the impact of monetary and incomes policies, and of external sector variables on long and medium run price development are studied. It is found that in Poland, contrary to some earlier studies, the external sector is not important for the long run price development. On the contrary, very strong evidence is found of the cost-push inflation.     

Some recent developments in the legal relationship between parent and child

This article is based on a paper read at the Oxford Round Table Sir William Blackstone Colloquium on Public School Law in Oxford in 2000. Living and working in the 18th century, Sir William Blackstone was one of the most prominent English lawyers of all time, his influence still enduring in England and in many other countries with historical links with England. Because Blackstone regarded the relationship between parent and child as very important, the author therefore traced it through three broad periods: Blackstone's own times, South Africa before 1994 and South Africa after 1994. In preparing the paper, the author realised that many changes had taken place in the legal relationship between parent and child in South Africa since 1994 and that their implications for education management need to be explored. Education law literature in South Africa is certainly still largely dominated by the law as it was before 1994; so are the management implications drawn from it. The article has four sections: first, aspects of the parent-child relationship in South African law before the new Constitutional dispensation; second, relevant developments in South African under the new Constitution(s) and finally, a conclusion.     

Explaining economic growth in the Soviet Union, 1950–86

Production function estimates are provided for Soviet industrial production and gross national product for the period 1950–86. A variety of alternative specifications is tested, including Cobb-Douglas, constant elasticity of substitution and variable elasticity of substitution production functions, and an error correction mechanism is used to investigate the long-run properties of the estimated equation. The structural stability of the estimates is also examined. Constant-returns-to-scale Cobb-Douglas production functions suggest that the rate of total factor productivity growth in the Soviet economy has declined steadily over time, becoming negative sometime in the period between 1970 and 1980. However the extensive statistical tests can doubt on the validity of any production function estimated on Soviet data.     

准备金付息制度的货币政策工具性质研究

本文基于相关文献的综述,分析了准备金付息制度的货币政策操作工具属性,并主要从准备金付息制度的扭曲效应、对商业银行经营绩效的影响及对货币政策的有效性等三个方面,具体分析我国准备金制度对经济运行的影响.研究发现:对准备金付息及付息利率的确定和调整是存款准备金制度的主要内容之一,它赋予存款准备金制度以新的内涵和工具功能.存款准备金制度是我国转型期有效的货币政策操作工具,而且可以将准备金付息制度打造成更为有效的货币政策操作工具.     

An agenda for post-troubles policing in Northern Ireland — The South African precedent

Conclusion These proposals represent part of a much larger agenda for policing reform. Critically, it is now time in Northern Ireland, as it was in South Africa, for all sides to start “thinking the unthinkable” if the peace process is to gain momentum. In that process of creating an agenda, opinions will be sought from many quarters. South Africa, in certain limited ways, provides a model of how irreconcilable views about the nature of policing a divided society, can be given serious considerations, of a more peaceful society is to be created. But there is one other crucial lesson from South Africa. Police reform cannot be imposed from above, or according to the dictates of outside experts. It must be based on serious, continuing consultation between all parties — local communities, political parties, the central state, and the police service itself. The South African example demonstrates that existing hostile interests do not have to learn to love one another in making progress in police reform. There is a common interest which surmounts political opposition — local people need the security which an effective, non-partisan police service can provide. minuscule levels.