A multivariate analysis of sex offender recidivism

Sex offender recidivism risk is a multifaceted phenomenon requiring consideration across multiple risk factor domains. The impact of treatment involvement and subsequent recidivism is given limited attention in comparison to other forensic mental health issues. The present analysis is a retrospective study of sex offenders treated at a secure facility utilizing a cognitive-behavioral program matched with an untreated correctional sample. Variables studied included demographic, criminal history, offense related, and treatment progress. Recidivism was assessed through arrest data. Multivariate analysis suggests that recidivism is significantly related to quality of treatment involvement, offender demographics, offense characteristics, and criminal history. Successfully treated offenders were significantly less likely to subsequently reoffend. Recidivists were also significantly younger, less likely married, had engaged in more victim grooming or less violent offending behavior, and had significantly more prior property charges. The authors discuss the clinical and policy implications of the interrelationship between treatment involvement and recidivism.     

The effectiveness of service work: An analysis of recidivism

The Israeli “service work” law of 1987 enables a court to commute prison sentences of up to 6 months to service work in the community. This paper examines the correctional effectiveness of this new sanction by comparing the rate of recidivism (over a period of 14 months) among 407 offenders sentenced to service work to that of 950 comparable offenders sentenced to imprisonment. As the research design is quasi-experimental, an adjustment for confounders is carried out using the propensity score (PS) methodology. The estimation of the odds ratio of recidivism with respect to sanction comprises two steps: (a) the PS, which is the conditional probability of assignment to a particular sanction given a set of confounders, is estimated by a logistic model; and (b) the conditional probability of recidivism, given the PS and other covariates, is estimated by a second model. The findings indicate that before an adjustment for the systematic differences between the two sanctions was carried out, the odds for recidivism among prisoners were 2.4 times higher than the odds for service workers. After the adjustment, the odds ratio was reduced to 1.7. This estimate indicates that the service work sanction has a considerable correctional effect. The need to address additional criteria for the effectiveness of service work (e.g., net-widening) is emphasized.     

The effectiveness of interactive journaling in reducing recidivism among substance-dependent jail inmates

The present study sought to evaluate the influence of interactive journaling on criminal recidivism and identify significant predictors of recidivism among a sample of 183 male inmates incarcerated in a local jail facility randomly assigned to either an interactive journaling condition or a control group. All participants met DSM-IV-TR criteria for substance dependence, had their current offense indicate substance involvement, and had a minimum of one previous arrest in the prior 12 months. The recidivism rate (51%), in terms of subsequent bookings within a 12-month period, for the journaling group was significantly lower than the recidivism rate (66%) for the control group, χ(2)(1, 183) = 4.13, p < .05. The three most significant independent predictors of subsequent bookings were severity of posttraumatic stress disorder, group assignment (journaling vs. placebo), and employment status. Interactive journaling appears to show promise as a brief treatment intervention strategy for substance dependence in local jail settings and may have the potential for reducing recidivism.     

The effectiveness of art therapy in reducing depression in prison populations

Major obstacles block the effectiveness of therapy in prison. Many inmates have an inherent mistrust for verbal disclosure. Rigid defenses exist for basic survival. Despite these defenses, there has been support for art therapy as a valuable tool. Unfortunately, there has been little research to measure the effectiveness of art therapy in prison. Two quantitative studies were initiated in a North Florida prison to measure the effectiveness of art therapy with inmates, specifically in decreasing depressive symptoms. This article will present a pilot and follow-up study. The methods, including the Formal Elements Art Therapy Scale (FEATS) and the Beck Depression Inventory-Short Form, will be delineated. What was revealed was that although the FEATS proved more effective as a measurement tool for the pilot than for the follow-up study, ultimately, the results reflected a significant decrease in depressive symptoms in those inmates who participated in the program.     

The effect of prison gang membership on recidivism

Purpose

How does prison gang membership affect recidivism? In this paper, we use a unique dataset of all releasees from prisons operated by the Illinois Department of Corrections during the month of November 2000, which includes demographic information and data on gang participation. We attempt to control for confounding factors that are traditionally associated with both prison gang membership and rearrest.

Methods

We develop a potential-outcomes framework and describe the conditions under which a counterfactual can be estimated when gang membership is not randomly assigned. We combine regression analysis with Coarsened Exact Matching, which has several advantages over the more popular propensity score matching, to estimate the effect of gang membership on recidivism.

Results

Prison gang membership results in a six percentage point increase in recidivism.

Conclusions

Despite the strengths of the data, unobserved heterogeneity among inmates could still bias estimates. However, there are probably important subtleties to the gang participation decision such that experimental or quasi-experimental data are unlikely to increase our understanding of the relationship between gang-membership and post-release outcomes. We recommend incorporating ethnography with survey data collection, because ethnographers are able to document otherwise unobservable contextual information concerning the selection process which could be used to identify causal relationships.     

The impact of recidivism and capacity on prison populations

Prison crowding currently poses a serious problem for society. This problem is attributable to a failure to anticipate and plan for the increased numbers of individuals sentenced to prison over the last decade. Crowded prisons have forced many jurisdictions to release prisoners earlier than would have been the case with unlimited prison capacity and to initiate expensive prison construction programs. In this paper, we develop a prison population projection model that extends previous work by considering the impact of limited prison capacity on time served, releases, and future admissions. The model was demonstrated for the State of North Carolina. Results suggest the tradeoffs that exist between prison capacity and punitiveness as measured by time served in prison.Points of view are those of the authors and do not necessarily represent the official position of the U.S. Department of Justice.     

The black male sex offender in prison: Images and issues

Abstract

In this paper it is suggested that White constructions of Black male sexuality may prevent Black male sex offenders in prison from being offered the opportunity to attend offence-focused programmes. Additionally, it is also suggested that the full participation of Black male sex offenders in such programmes may be inhibited by the groupwork environment and the content of these programmes. It is argued that an additional strategy is needed to enable Black male sex offenders to participate in these groupwork programmes.     

Establishing a compulsory drug treatment prison: Therapeutic policy, principles, and practices in addressing offender rights and rehabilitation

A Compulsory Drug Treatment Correctional Center (CDTCC) was established in Australia in 2006 for repeat drug-related male offenders. Compulsory treatment law is inconsistent with a therapeutic jurisprudence approach. Despite the compulsory law, a normative offender rehabilitation framework has been established based on offender moral rights. Within moral rights, the offender rehabilitation framework addresses the core values of freedom (supporting autonomous decision-making) and well-being (supporting support physical, social, and psychological needs). Moral rights are underpinned by a theory or principle which, in this instance, is a humane approach to offender rehabilitation. While a law that permits offenders to choose drug treatment and rehabilitation is preferable, the article discusses the establishment of a prison based on therapeutic policy, principles, and practices that respond to participants as both rights-violators and rights-holders. The opportunity for accelerated community access and a therapeutic alliance with staff has resulted in offenders actively seeking to be ordered into compulsory drug treatment and rehabilitation.     

Assessing the effectiveness of drug courts on recidivism: A meta-analytic review of traditional and non-traditional drug courts

Purpose

The objective of this research was to systematically review quasi-experimental and experimental evaluations of the effectiveness of drug courts in reducing offending.

Methods

Our search identified 154 independent evaluations: 92 evaluations of adult drug courts, 34 of juvenile drug courts, and 28 of DWI drug courts. The findings of these studies were synthesized using meta-analysis.

Results

The vast majority of adult drug court evaluations, even the most rigorous evaluations, find that participants have lower recidivism than non-participants. The average effect of participation is analogous to a drop in recidivism from 50% to 38%; and, these effects last up to three years. Evaluations of DWI drug courts find effects similar in magnitude to those of adult drug courts, but the most rigorous evaluations do not uniformly find reductions in recidivism. Juvenile drug courts have substantially smaller effects on recidivism. Larger reductions in recidivism were found in adult drug courts that had high graduation rates, and those that accepted only non-violent offenders.

Conclusions

These findings support the effectiveness of adult drug courts in reducing recidivism. The evidence assessing DWI courts' effectiveness is very promising but more experimental evaluations are needed. Juvenile drug courts typically produce small reductions in recidivism.     

The impact of pre-treatment responsivity and treatment participation on violent recidivism in a violent offender sample

This study assessed whether pre-treatment responsivity (psychopathy, motivation to attend treatment, denial and minimisation of offending behaviour, and feelings of guilt or shame) predicted violent recidivism and/or moderated the effectiveness of a violence intervention programme. Participants were 114 male violent offenders who were referred to a structured violent offender group treatment programme; 84 offenders commenced the programme. Results showed that treatment completion did not have a significant main effect on recidivism but that psychopathy scores moderated the effects of treatment. Offenders with high scores on the Psychopathy Checklist: Screening Version (PCL:SV) who were rated as having good engagement with treatment, or who completed treatment, had similar violent recidivism rates compared to offenders with low PCL:SV scores. In contrast, offenders with high PCL:SV scores who dropped out of treatment or were poorly engaged had significantly higher rates of violent recidivism. These findings indicate that treatment effectiveness could be enhanced, and greater reductions in recidivism achieved, if programmes find ways to engage and maintain psychopathic offenders in treatment.     

Every session counts: The differential impact of previous programmes and current programme dosage on offender recidivism

Purpose. The present study examined the impact of current treatment dosage on recidivism among offenders. Methods. Using a sample of dropouts from a community treatment programme, current treatment dosage and past completed programmes were used to predict criminal recidivism. Results. After statistically controlling for risk levels, only current dosage was predictive of recidivism. Conclusions. Offenders’ current direction, indicated by current dosage, is central to reducing recidivism. Strategies for offenders completing treatment sessions are discussed.     

Beyond static and dynamic risk factors: the incremental validity of release planning for predicting sex offender recidivism

Both desistance research and strengths-based approaches to offender rehabilitation suggest that attempts to reduce sex offender recidivism should attend to an offender's release environment. Recent research has demonstrated that better quality release planning is associated with reduced recidivism; however, whether release planning contributes significant incremental validity in predicting recidivism over and above static and dynamic risk factors is unclear. In the present study, release planning was retrospectively assessed for a sample of child molesters (n = 196) who had been released into the community following completion of a prison-based treatment program and its relative contribution to recidivism risk prediction was investigated. The average follow-up period was 11.08 years, during which 13.3% of the sample were convicted of a new sexual offence. Hierarchical Cox regression analyses showed that release planning contributed additional predictive validity for sexual recidivism after controlling for static and dynamic risk factors. Findings suggest that assessment of release planning might improve accuracy of sex offender risk assessments and that improved release planning should contribute to reductions in recidivism.     

Unintended consequences: experimental evidence for the criminogenic effect of prison security level placement on post-release recidivism

Most prison systems use quantitative instruments to classify and assign inmates to prison security levels commensurate to their level of risk. Bench and Allen (The Prison Journal 83(4):367-382, 2003) offer evidence that the assignment to higher security prisons produces elevated levels of misconduct independent of the individual’s propensity to commit misconduct. Chen and Shapiro (American Law and Economics Review, 2007) demonstrate that assignment to higher security level among inmates with the same classification scores increases post-release recidivism. Underlying both of these claims is the idea that the prison social environment is criminogenic. In this paper we examine the theoretical premises for this claim and present data from the only experiment that has been conducted that randomly assigns inmates to prison security levels and evaluates both prison misconduct and post-release recidivism. The experiment’s results show that inmates with a level III security classification who were randomly assigned to a security level III prison in the California prison system had a hazard rate of returning to prison that was 31% higher than that of their randomly selected counterparts who were assigned to a level I prison. Thus, the offenders’ classification assignments at admission determined their likelihood of returning to prison. There were no differences in the institutional serious misconduct rates of these same prisoners. These results are contradictory to a specific deterrence prediction and more consistent with peer influence and environmental strain theories. These results also raise important policy implications that challenge the way correctional administrators will have to think about the costs and benefits of separating inmates into homogeneous pools based on classification scores.

Gender differences in life-course theory of recidivism: a survival analysis

This study of 300 women and 300 men graduates of a boot camp finds that there are noteworthy gender differences in predictors of tenure in the community without criminal recidivism in a 5-year follow-up. The Cox proportional hazards models show that urban residence, childhood and recent abuses, living with a criminal partner, selling drugs, stress, depression, fearfulness, and suicidal thoughts are stronger positive predictors of recidivism for women than for men. Men are more likely to return to prison because of criminal peer associations, carrying weapons, alcohol abuse, and aggressive feelings. Job satisfaction and education lengthen time in the community more for men than women, whereas the number of children and relationships are more important to tenure in the community for women. The implications for the findings for theory are discussed.     

When second best is good enough: a comparison between a true experiment and a regression discontinuity quasi-experiment

In this paper, we compare the results from a randomized clinical trial to the results from a regression discontinuity quasi-experiment when both designs are implemented in the same setting. We find that the results from the two approaches are effectively identical. We attribute the comparability in part to recent statistical developments that make the model required for the analysis of data from a regression discontinuity design easier to determine. These developments make an already strong quasi-experimental design even stronger.