An experimental trial of adaptive programming in drug court: outcomes at 6, 12 and 18 months

Objectives

To test whether an adaptive program improves outcomes in drug court by adjusting the schedule of court hearings and clinical case-management sessions pursuant to a priori performance criteria.

Methods

Consenting participants in a misdemeanor drug court were randomly assigned to the adaptive program (n?=?62) or to a baseline-matching condition (n?=?63) in which they attended court hearings based on the results of a criminal risk assessment. Outcome measures were re-arrest rates at 18 months post-entry to the drug court, and urine drug test results and structured interview results at 6 and 12 months post-entry.

Results

Although previously published analyses revealed significantly fewer positive drug tests for participants in the adaptive condition during the first 18 weeks of drug court, current analyses indicate the effects converged during the ensuing year. Between-group differences in new arrest rates, urine drug test results and self-reported psychosocial problems were small and non-statistically significant at 6, 12, and 18 months post-entry. A non-significant trend (p?=?.10) suggests there may have been a small residual impact (Cramer’s v?=?.15) on new misdemeanor arrests after 18 months.

Conclusions

Adaptive programming shows promise for enhancing short-term outcomes in drug courts; however, additional efforts are needed to extend the effects beyond the first 4 to 6 months of enrollment.     

A quasi-experimental test of the effects of criminal justice involvement on later mental health

Objectives

While many criminological theories posit causal hypotheses, many studies fail to use methods that adequately address the three criteria of causality. This is particularly important when assessing the impact of criminal justice involvement on later outcomes. Due to practical and ethical concerns, it is challenging to randomize criminal sanctions, so quasi-experimental methods such as propensity score matching are often used to approximate a randomized design. Based on longitudinal data from the Cambridge Study in Delinquent Development, the current study used propensity score matching to investigate the extent to which convictions and/or incarcerations in the first two decades of life were related to adverse mental health during middle adulthood.

Methods

Propensity scores were utilized to match those with and without criminal justice involvement on a wide range of risk factors for offending.

Results

The results indicated that there were no significant differences in mental health between those involved in the criminal justice system and those without such involvement.

Conclusions

The results did not detect a relationship between justice system involvement and later mental health suggesting that the consequences of criminal justice involvement may only be limited to certain domains.

     

The impact of military service on criminal offending over the life course: evidence from a Dutch conviction cohort

Objectives  

Examination of the relationship between military service and criminal conviction, and evaluation of its sensitivity through the use of two distinct study designs.     

The effectiveness of prison for reducing drug offender recidivism: a regression discontinuity analysis

Objectives

An enduring legacy of the 1980s “war on drugs” is the increased use of imprisonment for drug offenders. Advocates anticipated, in part, that prison is more effective than community sanctions in reducing recidivism. Despite the contribution of drug offender incarceration to prison growth nationally, and debates about whether this approach should be curtailed, only limited rigorous research exists that evaluates the effect of imprisonment on drug offender recidivism. To address this gap, this paper uses sentencing and recidivism data from a cohort of individuals convicted of felony drug offenses in Florida to examine the effect of imprisonment—as compared to community sanctions—on recidivism.

Methods

Regression discontinuity analyses are used. These minimize potential selection bias by exogenously assigning cases to conditions based on a rating variable and a cut-off score.

Results

Results indicate that prison has no effect on drug offenders’ rates of reconviction. This finding holds across a range of offender subgroups (racial and ethnic, gender, age, and prior criminal justice system involvement).

Conclusions

Imprisoning individuals convicted of marginally serious drug offenses—that is, those close to a cut-off score for being sent to prison—did not reduce subsequent offending. This finding suggests that curtailing the use of imprisonment for such individuals will not appreciably affect future criminal activity and may have the benefit of reducing correctional system costs.

     

When Criminal Coping is Likely: An Examination of Conditioning Effects in General Strain Theory

Objectives

This paper addresses a central problem in general strain theory (GST): the mixed results regarding those factors said to condition the effect of strains on crime. We test Agnew’s (Deviant Behav 34(8):653–670, 2013) assertion that a criminal response to strain is likely only when individuals score high on several factors that increase the propensity for criminal coping or possess markers that indicate a strong propensity for criminal coping.

Methods

We use survey data from nearly 6000 juveniles from across the United States to examine whether the effect of criminogenic strains across several domains—perceptions of police, school environment, and victimization—on crime are conditioned by: (1) respondents’ criminal propensity and (2) gang membership. To the best of our knowledge, this is the first criminological study to employ an analytical framework that simultaneously considers nonlinear (i.e., curvilinear) dynamics, non-additive (i.e., interactive) effects, and non-normally distributed dependent variables. This approach has the advantage of properly differentiating nonlinear and non-additive dimensions and therefore significantly improving our understanding of conditioning effects.

Results

We find considerable support for Agnew’s (2013) postulation about conditioning effects and GST. Criminal behavior is more likely among those with a strong overall propensity for criminal coping and among gang members. Furthermore, we discover that the conditioning effects are, themselves, nonlinear. That is, the effect of criminal propensity on moderating the relationship between our three measures of strain and delinquency varies across the range of the criminal propensity index. Our models that simultaneously consider both the non-additive and nonlinear relationship between strains, criminal propensity, and criminal offending better fit the data than models that consider these dimensions separately. These results hold whether examining a composite measure of criminal activity or, alternatively, three separate subscales indexing violent, property, and drug offenses.

Conclusion

Our study advances GST and the crime literature by identifying the types of strained individuals most likely to engage in criminal coping. Additionally, the analytical framework we adopt serves as a model for the correct measurement and interpretation of conditioning effects for criminological data, which almost invariably violate the assumptions of the linear regression model. Parametric interactions are the most commonly investigated type of interactions, but other kinds of interactions are also plausible and may reveal conditional relationships that are either overlooked or understated when analysts adopt a fully parametric framework. We demonstrate the utility of expressly modeling both the nonlinear effects of component variables in an interaction and the nonlinear nature of the conditioning effect.

     

Psychosocial functioning among inmates in prison-based drug treatment: results from Project BRITE

Objective

To assess the impact of a positive behavioral reinforcement intervention on psychosocial functioning of inmates over the course of treatment and on post-treatment self-reported measures of treatment participation, progress, and satisfaction.

Method

Male (n?=?187) and female (n?=?143) inmates participating in 12-week prison-based intensive outpatient (IOP) drug treatment were randomly assigned to receive standard treatment (ST) or standard treatment plus positive behavioral reinforcement (BR) for engaging in targeted activities and behaviors. Participants were assessed for psychosocial functioning at baseline and at the conclusion of treatment (post-treatment). Self-reported measures of treatment participation, treatment progress, and treatment satisfaction were also captured at post-treatment.

Results

The intervention affected female and male subjects differently and not always in a way that favored BR subjects, as compared to the ST subjects, most notably on measures of depression and criminal thinking.

Conclusions

Possible explanations for the results include differences in the male and female custody environments combined with the procedures that study participants had to follow to earn and/or receive positive reinforcement at the two study sites, as well as baseline differences between the genders and a possible floor effect among females on measures of criminality. Limitations of the study included the inability to make study participants blind to the study conditions and the possible over-branding of the study, which may have influenced the results.     

A Quasi-Experimental Evaluation of the Impact of Public Assistance on Prisoner Recidivism

Introduction

The Welfare Act of 1996 banned welfare and food stamp eligibility for felony drug offenders and gave states the ability to modify their use of the law. Today, many states are revisiting their use of this ban, searching for ways to decrease the size of their prison populations; however, there are no empirical assessments of how this ban has affected prison populations and recidivism among drug offenders. Moreover, there are no causal investigations whatsoever to demonstrate whether welfare or food stamp benefits impact recidivism at all.

Objective

This paper provides the first empirical examination of the causal relationship between recidivism and welfare and food stamp benefits

Methods

Using a survival-based estimation, we estimated the impact of benefits on the recidivism of drug-offending populations using data from the National Corrections Reporting Program. We modeled this impact using a difference-in-difference estimator within a regression discontinuity framework.

Results

Results of this analysis are conclusive; we find no evidence that drug offending populations as a group were adversely or positively impacted by the ban overall. Results apply to both male and female populations and are robust to several sensitivity tests. Results also suggest the possibility that impacts significantly vary over time-at-risk, despite a zero net effect.

Conclusion

Overall, we show that the initial passage of the drug felony ban had no measurable large-scale impacts on recidivism among male or female drug offenders. We conclude that the state initiatives to remove or modify the ban, regardless of whether they improve lives of individual offenders, will likely have no appreciable impact on prison systems.

     

The impact of neighborhood crime levels on police use of force: An examination at micro and meso levels

Purpose

Neighborhood contextual factors have gained a considerable amount of attention, relating neighborhood crime levels to police force. Prior research mainly examined the relationship either at the police district level or at the city level. The current study intends to investigate the relationship at lower levels of geographic aggregation.

Methods

Using Geographic Information System techniques, the current study utilized four radial buffer zones around each use of force incident location to measure the impact of neighborhood violent criminal activities at the micro level on the level of police force used. In addition, hierarchical linear modeling using neighborhood crime rates within police command areas allowed for a comparison study to measure the impact of neighborhood criminal activities at the meso level on police force.

Results

The current study found that neighborhood crime levels have a significant and positive effect of increasing the level of police force used at the micro level.

Conclusions

The current study supports the work of Black and Smith, concluding that more training and supervision are required for officers working in high crime areas.     

Individual Differences in the Deterrence Process: Which Individuals Learn (Most) from Their Offending Experiences?

Objectives

To test whether individuals differ in deterrability by studying whether the effect of criminal experiences on perceived detection risk varies by criminal propensity.

Methods

Data from the British “Offending, Crime and Justice Survey”, a four-wave panel study on criminal behavior and victimization, are analyzed. Two subsamples for analyses are constructed: one of non-offenders at first measurement, to analyze the effect of gaining first offending experiences during the time of study (n = 1,279) and one sample of individuals who have committed offenses within the past year (n = 567), to analyze the effect of police contact among active offenders. Fixed-effects regressions of perceived detection risk on criminal experiences and interactions between criminal experiences and measures of criminal propensity (risk-affinity, impulsivity) are estimated.

Results

Analyses support learning models for the formation and change of risk perceptions, but individual differences by criminal propensity are present in the deterrence process: After gaining first offending experiences, impulsive individuals as well as risk-averse individuals are more likely to lower their perceptions about the probability of detection than less impulsive or risk-affine individuals are. A positive effect of police contact on expected detection risk is restricted to risk-averse individuals.

Conclusions

Findings support claims that deterrence works differently for crime-prone individuals. The differential effects of impulsivity and risk-affinity underline the importance of not combining constituent characteristics of criminal propensity in composite indices, because they might have differential effects on deterrence.     

Rational Misbehavior? Evaluating an Integrated Dual-Process Model of Criminal Decision Making

Objectives

Test the hypothesis that dispositional self-control and morality relate to criminal decision making via different mental processing modes, a ‘hot’ affective mode and a ‘cool’ cognitive one.

Methods

Structural equation modeling in two studies under separate samples of undergraduate students using scenarios describing two different types of crime, illegal downloading and insurance fraud. Both self-control and morality are operationalized through the HEXACO model of personality (Lee and Ashton in Multivariate Behav Res 39(2):329–358, 2004).

Results

In Study 1, negative state affect, i.e., feelings of fear and worry evoked by a criminal prospect, and perceived risk of sanction were found to mediate the relations between both dispositions and criminal choice. In Study 2, processing mode was manipulated by having participants rely on either their thinking or on their feelings prior to deciding on whether or not to make a criminal choice. Activating a cognitive mode strengthened the relation between perceived risk and criminal choice, whereas activating an affective mode strengthened the relation between negative affect and criminal choice.

Conclusion

In conjunction, these results extend research that links stable individual dispositions to proximal states that operate in the moment of decision making. The results also add to dispositional perspectives of crime by using a structure of personality that incorporates both self-control and morality. Contributions to the proximal, state, perspectives reside in the use of a new hot/cool perspective of criminal decision making that extends rational choice frameworks.     

Effectiveness of a prolonged incarceration and rehabilitation measure for high-frequency offenders

Objectives

To estimate the incapacitation effect and the impact on post-release recidivism of a measure combining prolonged incarceration and rehabilitation, the ISD measure for high frequency offenders (HFOs) was compared to the standard practice of short-term imprisonment.

Methods

We applied a quasi-experimental design with observational data to study the effects of ISD. The intervention group consisted of all HFOs released from ISD in the period 2004–2008. Two control groups were derived from the remaining population of HFOs who were released from a standard prison term. To form groups of controls, a combination of multiple imputation (MI) and propensity score matching (PSM) was used including a large number of covariates. In order to measure the incapacitation effect of ISD, the number of convictions and recorded offences in a criminal case of the controls were counted in the same period as their ISD counterfactuals were incarcerated. The impact on recidivism was measured by the prevalence and the frequency of reconvictions corrected for time at risk. Robustness of the results were checked by performing a combined PSM and difference-in-difference (DD) design.

Results

The estimate of the incapacitation effect was on average 5.7 criminal cases and 9.2 offences per ISD measure. On average 2.5 convictions and 4 recorded offences per year per HFO are prevented. The HFOs released from ISD showed 12 to 16 % lower recidivism rates than their control HFOs released from prison (Cohen’s h?=?0.3–0.4). The recidivists of the ISD group also showed a lower reconviction frequency than the control group recidivists (Cohen’s d?=?0.2).

Conclusions

The ISD measure seems to be effective in reducing recidivism and crime. The estimated incapacitation effect showed that a large portion of criminal cases and offences was prevented. DD analysis and sensitivity analyses confirmed the robustness of the PSM results. Due to the absence of actual treatment data, the effects found cannot be attributed separately to resocialization, imprisonment, or improvement of life circumstances.     

Offender-focused police intervention in residential burglary and theft from vehicle hot spots: a partially blocked randomized control trial

Objectives

To test an offender-focused police intervention in residential burglary and residential theft from vehicle hot spots and its effect on crime, arrests, and offender recidivism. The intervention was prevention-focused, in which detectives contacted offenders and their families at their homes to discourage criminal activity.

Methods

The study was a partially blocked, randomized controlled field experiment in 24 treatment and 24 control hot spots in one suburban city with average crime levels. Negative binomial and ordinary least squares (OLS) regression were used to test the effect of the presence of intervention and its dosage on crime and offender recidivism, and examination of average and standardized treatment effects were conducted.

Results

The analyses of the hot spot impact measures did not reveal significant results to indicate that the treatment had an effect on crime or arrest counts, or on repeat arrests of the targeted or non-targeted offenders living in the hot spots. However, the relationships, while not significant, were in a promising direction.

Conclusions

The collective findings from all four impact measures suggest that the intervention may have had some influence on the targeted offenders, as well as in the treatment hot spots. So, while the experimental results did not show an impact, they are promising. Limitations include large hot spots, the low case number, low base rates, and inadequate impact measures. Suggestions are provided for police agencies and researchers for implementing preventive offender-focused strategies and conducting studies in suburban cities.

     

Breaking the cycle demonstration project: using a quasi-experimental analysis to test the “worst of both worlds” hypothesis and risk principle

Objectives

The purpose of this study was to test the “worst of both worlds” hypothesis and the risk principle in a sample of drug-involved offenders enrolled in the Breaking the Cycle (BTC) demonstration project, an intensive drug intervention implemented in Birmingham, Alabama, Jacksonville, Florida, and Tacoma, Washington.

Methods

A group of 1081 drug-involved offenders enrolled in BTC were compared to 934 drug-involved offenders (pre-BTC) who processed through the regular court system of each city 1 year prior to implementation of BTC. Participants from both groups were divided into risk levels based on scores from the Addiction Severity Index (ASI) Drug (D) and Legal (L) scales. Individuals who scored at or above the mean on both the ASI-D and ASI-L were identified as high risk, individuals who scored at or above the mean on either the ASI-D or ASI-L but not both were identified as moderate risk, and individuals who scored below the mean on both the ASI-D and ASI-L were identified as low risk.

Results

Consistent with the risk principle, high-risk BTC participants displayed significant improvements in subsequent drug problem days, criminal offending, and days spent in jail relative to high-risk pre-BTC participants. There was no apparent benefit of BTC enrollment for moderate- and low-risk participants.

Conclusions

These results indicate that drug–crime comorbidity can be used to assess risk and that individuals identified as high risk are more likely to benefit from higher-intensity forms of intervention than moderate- or low-risk individuals.

     

In and out of prison: Do importation factors predict all forms of misconduct or just the more serious ones?

Purpose

This study was designed to investigate whether importation factors predict all forms of prison misconduct and recidivism or just the more serious forms.

Methods

Six importation factors were examined: age, marital status, street gang affiliation, criminal thinking, prior drug abuse, and criminal history. Count data for two high severity infractions (assault, escape), two high-moderate severity infractions (fighting, possession of intoxicants), two moderate severity infractions (refusing programs, stealing), two high severity crimes (assault, robbery), and two moderate severity crimes (DUI, failure to appear) were regressed onto these six importation variables in samples of 2488 (prison infractions) and 1101 (recidivism) male inmates.

Results

The importation variables successfully predicted the four infractions that were rated high and high-moderate in severity and the two crimes that were rated high severity but not the two infractions or two crimes that were rated as moderate in severity.

Conclusions

These findings suggest that importation factors are differentially predictive of more serious forms of infraction and recidivism and that the importation model may have as much to offer the study of community adjustment and recidivism as it does the study of institutional adjustment and disciplinary infractions as part of the more general theoretical construct of criminal propensity.     

Scaling Criminal Offending

Objective:

This paper reviews a century of research on creating theoretically meaningful and empirically useful scales of criminal offending and illustrates their strengths and weaknesses.

Methods:

The history of scaling criminal offending is traced in a detailed literature review focusing on the issues of seriousness, unidimensionality, frequency, and additivity of offending. Modern practice in scaling criminal offending is measured using a survey of 130 articles published in five leading criminology journals over a two-year period that included a scale of individual offending as either an independent or dependent variable. Six scaling methods commonly used in contemporary criminological research are demonstrated and assessed using the National Longitudinal Survey of Youth 1979: dichotomous, frequency, weighted frequency, variety, summed category, and item response theory ??theta??.

Results:

The discipline of criminology has seen numerous scaling techniques introduced and forgotten. While no clearly superior method dominates the field today, the most commonly used scaling techniques are dichotomous and frequency scales, both of which are fraught with methodological pitfalls including sensitivity to the least serious offenses.

Conclusions:

Variety scales are the preferred criminal offending scale because they are relatively easy to construct, possess high reliability and validity, and are not compromised by high frequency non-serious crime types.     

The influence of forensic evidence on the case outcomes of homicide incidents

Objective

In spite of the growth of forensic science services little published research exists related to the impact of forensic evidence on criminal case outcomes. The present study focused on the influence of forensic evidence on the case processing of homicide incidents.

Materials and Methods

The study utilized a prospective analysis of official record data that followed homicide cases in five jurisdictions from the time of police incident report to final criminal disposition.

Results

The results showed that most homicides went unsolved (34.5% conviction rate). Only 55.5% of the 400 homicide incidents resulted in arrest of which 77% were referred to the district attorney. On the other hand, 94% of cases referred to the district attorney were charged. Cases were more likely to have arrests, referrals, and charges when witnesses provided information to the police. Suspects who knew their victims were more likely to be arrested and referred to the district attorney. Homicides committed with firearms were less likely to be cleared. The most noteworthy finding was that none of the forensic evidence variables significantly influenced criminal justice outcomes.

Conclusions

The study results suggest that forensic evidence is auxiliary and non-determinative for homicide cases.     

Defending and managing the pipeline: lessons for running a randomized experiment in a correctional institution

Objectives

To discuss the challenges faced in an experimental prisoner reentry evaluation with regard to managing the pipeline of eligible cases.

Methods

This paper uses a case study approach, coupled with a review of the relevant literature on issues of case flow in experimental studies in criminal justice settings. Included are recommendations for researchers on the management of case flow, reflections on the major research design issues encountered, and a listing of dilemmas that are likely to plague experimental evaluations of prisoner reentry programs.

Results

Particularly in a jail setting, anticipating the timing of release of a prisoner to the community is probably impossible given the large number of issues that impact release, many of which will be unanticipated. A detailed pipeline study is critical to the success of an experimental study targeting returning prisoners. Pipeline studies should be conducted under what will be the true conditions and context for enrollment, given all eligibility criteria.

Conclusions

With continued and systematic documentation of enrollment challenges in future experimental evaluations of reentry programs, as well as other experimental evaluations that involve individuals, academics can build a deep literature that would help facilitate future successful randomized experiments in the criminal justice field.     

Marked for Death: An Empirical Criminal Careers Analysis of Death Sentences in a Sample of Convicted Male Homicide Offenders

Background

Although prior criminal record and concurrent criminal charges constitute the main eligibility and aggravating circumstances used in capital sentencing, relatively little research has examined the criminal careers of offenders who are ultimately sentenced to death.

Materials and Methods

Using official criminal history data for 618 incarcerated male homicide offenders selected from 8 states—191 of whom were sentenced to death—the current study explored the criminal careers of offenders that received the most severe legal punishment.

Results

Poisson regression incidence rate ratio models indicated that multiple measures of prior criminal activity including contemporaneous and prior history of violence, prior incarceration, early onset of arrest, juvenile homicide offending, and juvenile child molestation were associated with subsequently being sentenced to death. Separate models for white, African American, and Hispanic males showed contrasting effects in their criminal careers and varying relationships between prior criminal career and current capital offending.

Conclusion

The current study adds to the literature on lifespan criminality by applying Poisson regression analyses and a criminal careers approach to study the most extreme offenders including those sentenced to death.     

Parenthood and crime: The role of wantedness, relationships with partners, and ses

Purpose

Parenthood may play a pivotal role in the criminal desistance process, but few studies have examined the conditions under which becoming a mother or father is most likely to lead to reductions in criminal behavior.

Methods

The current longitudinal study draws on four waves of adolescent and young adult interview data (N = 1,066) and HLM regression models to examine the impact of parenthood on criminal trajectories, as well as the degree to which the prosocial potential of parenthood is modified by socioeconomic factors, the nature of the relationship between the biological parents, and pregnancy wantedness. The analysis also draws on narrative life history accounts elicited from a subset of these respondents (N = 22).

Results

SES and the wantedness of the pregnancy condition the relationship between parenthood and criminal involvement, however some gender differences emerged. Status of the relationship (married or cohabiting and single) was in general not a strong predictor.

Conclusions

Highly disadvantaged young men and women are not as likely as more advantaged young adults to evidence lower levels of criminal behavior after becoming parents, however wanted pregnancies may reduce female involvement in crime regardless of socioeconomic status. In-depth qualitative data further elucidate the conditional nature of the parenthood-crime relationship.