Exiles and the Marketing of U.S. Policy toward Cuba and Iraq

This paper analyses the role of Cuban Americans and Iraqi Americans as allies of like-minded public officials in the marketing of contested foreign policies to the United States public. Each of these ethnic exile communities played a traditional lobbying role as would be expected of interest groups, but the argument here is that the interactive relationship between the ethnic interest groups and government officials in advocating policy is the more interesting development in these cases. While there are differences in the two cases, the similarities between marketing an embargo and an invasion suggest that foreign-policy analysts may want to pay closer attention to the interactive relationship between exile communities and government officials in policy advocacy. I suggest in conclusion that we need to be wary of according defectors and exiles privileged positions in future foreign-policy debates.     

Monetary policy and overinvestment in East Asia and Europe

The paper analyzes the role of monetary policy for cyclical movements of investment and asset markets in East Asia and Europe based on a Mises-Hayek overinvestment framework. It is shown how the gradual global decline of interest rates has triggered wandering overinvestment cycles in Japan, Southeast Asia, and China. Similarly, it is shown how a one-size monetary policy within the European Monetary Union has not preserved the European Monetary Union from idiosyncratic economic development and crisis because of uncoordinated fiscal policies. With monetary policy crisis management being argued to impede financial and economic restructuring, a timely exit from ultra-expansionary monetary policies is recommended for both East Asia and Europe to reconstitute economic stability and growth.     

Matching humanitarian norms with cold,hard interests: the making of refugee policies in Mexico and Honduras, 1980-89

Humanitarian norms and institutions should be considered when analyzing the development and state of national policy. Mexico and Honduras, for example, have provided physical security, health care, and education to most Guatemalans and Salvadorans seeking asylum. In neither case, however, are Mexico's and Honduras' economic and political interests being best served. National interest initially forced the deportation or massacre of these refugees, in the case of Honduras, in the early 1980s. In the absence of change in neither national interests nor attitude, these refugees owe their current treatment to the Office of United Nations High Commissioner for Refugees. These cases support this paper's argument that national policy is shaped over time by interaction with international norm-promoting institutions. In the interest of minimizing costs and risk, policymakers and governments tend to adapt institutionally developed and internationally accepted policies to suit their needs. National policy is not developed solely on the basis of calculations of national interest outside of internationally accepted norms. This paper demonstrates the ability to empirically test the nature of forces guiding the development of national policy.     

The effect of ECB communication on interest rates: An assessment

This paper reviews the literature on the communication policy of the European Central Bank (ECB) addressing two questions. First, to what extent has ECB communication affected interest rates? Second, to what extent has ECB communication affected the predictability of the ECB’s interest rate decisions? On the basis of a survey of empirical studies, it is concluded that various forms of ECB communication lead to more volatility. However, studies focusing on volatility cannot assess whether markets moved in the intended direction. To analyze whether this is the case, researchers have coded ECB communications. Studies using this approach yield evidence that communications generally move financial markets in the intended direction. There is also substantive evidence that ECB communications increase the predictability of interest decisions by the ECB Governing Council. Finally, the consequences of the fact that ECB officials often gave contrasting signals to market participants are analyzed. New evidence suggests that inconsistent communication causes agents to make less accurate predictions. The policy implication is that central bankers should take care that their statements are consistent.     

俄罗斯的战略性贸易政策倾向——以汽车工业保护为例

俄罗斯在汽车工业领域采取了长期和短期政策相结合的支持政策,其中带有显著的战略性贸易政策倾向。作为一种鼓励创新的贸易政策,却在一个相对传统的行业中发挥作用,这是俄罗斯产业结构、市场结构和政府偏好相互作用的结果。正确理解政策发挥作用的充要条件,正确认识保护和竞争的关系,才能够正确制定和实施战略性贸易政策。俄罗斯的政策实践有着独特的借鉴意义。     

Setting a Course: Congressional Foreign Policy Entrepreneurs In Post-World War II U.S. Foreign Policy

"Congressional foreign policy entrepreneurs" are those legislators who initiate their own foreign policy agendas. These individuals seek to frame policy discussions and mobilize public and interest group interest; to direct congressional agendas toward specific foreign policy issues; to structure and influence the formulation of foreign policies by the executive branch; to revise, refocus, or reformulate foreign policies; to generate alternative and replacement foreign policies; and to fill policy vacuums with their own preferred foreign policies. This paper examines the evolution and impact of such entrepreneurs across the periods of the Cold War Consensus (1946–1967), the Cold War Dissensus (1968–1989), and the Post-Cold War (1990–2000). The paper first provides an overview of the concept of foreign policy entrepreneurs. It then turns to case studies of entrepreneurial initiatives from three prolific entrepreneurs whose careers span the post-World War II era: Senators Jacob Javits, Edward Kennedy, and Christopher Dodd. Together, the overview and cases shed light on the different avenues and activities that entrepreneurs use to address their preferred issues and the impact entrepreneurs have on policy, as well as highlight changes in both over time.     

欧洲中央银行与美联储利率政策实践及效果评价与分析

自1999年以来,欧洲中央银行和美联储频繁运用利率政策杠杆调控经济,他们的利率政策实践大体上经历了两个阶段:一是1999-2000年的逐步加息阶段。二是2001年以来的减息阶段,欧洲中央银行和美联储的货币政策目标不同,决策所面临的经济环境背景也不同。因此,尽管他们的利率政策走向大体上一致,但利率政策操作中体现的特点却不同,政策效果也不同。     

东南亚五国宏观调控有效性及其经济增长动力分析——基于蒙代尔—弗莱明模型

在凯恩斯理论框架下,本文根据东南亚五国经济运行基本状况运用蒙代尔-弗莱明模型对其从1970年至今的经济运行做了数量实证.随后对宏观调控政策的有效性进行了理论分析,并引入VAR模型对分析进行了验证,实证认为:适度宽松的财政和货币政策、降低利率、增加政府支出、发展国际贸易以及扩大总供给是拉动经济增长的有效手段.     

安全化操作与美国全球供应链政策的战略性调适

2021年美国拜登政府施政伊始就推动了一系列关于供应链的新政策,特别是以“国家安全”为叙事手段强化国内产业政策,扶持先进制造业和新兴技术研发,并联合安全盟友构建关键产业国际供应链联盟。与特朗普政府相比,拜登政府的新供应链政策进一步强调了经济安全和国家安全并重的原则。对于这种政策转变的本质,相关研究出现了战略性转变和功能性转变等两种观点。从理论逻辑看,经济政策的安全化分析路径,可以剖析全球供应链的安全效应,明晰经济和安全策略组合的类型,从而进一步揭示美国新供应链政策“混合式安全化操作”的生成机制。从政策实践看,拜登政府针对供应链问题的安全化操作主要呈现两个新的特点,一是新冠肺炎疫情冲击之下的兼顾供应链安全与大国战略竞争,二是以国内投资重塑产业链,并配合国际运作以形成关键产业供应链联盟,从而对战略对手实施经济权术。这些新政策面临着战略利益和市场力量之间的张力,存在诸多制约,其带来的政策冲击也为后疫情时代全球经济的稳定和复苏增加了不确定性。     

奥巴马的“新政”及美国对华政策走向

奥巴马以倡导“新政”当选美国总统。美国长期奉行的经济自由主义政策将会终结；单边主义外交政策将会被多边主义取代。奥巴马政府的经济政策可能会在经贸、汇率、环境、知识产权以及人权等问题上给中国造成压力；多边主义外交将增加中美磋商与合作的机会。奥巴马“新政”下的中美建设性合作伙伴关系将会继续发展。     

The effects of circulatory capitalism on democratization: Observations from South Africa and Brazil

This article argues that the democratization processes taking place in South Africa and elsewhere in emerging market economies cannot be separated from the global economic context within which these processes are taking place. The article illustrates that the mainstream political economy literature has not paid sufficient attention to the issue of the limits and constraints placed upon these newly emerging democracies by the new financial architecture, particularly the derivatives market, which now determines the value and price of emerging market currencies. The article concludes that the workings of this market not only heavily favour the interests of developed countries but that they deeply question the accountability of politicians in those emerging markets and thereby endanger the legitimacy of the democratic project in large parts of the post-colonial world. The article is divided into three sections: first, a critique of some of the leading political economy analyses and their position on the relationship between open-economy policies and democracy; second, an account of the development of the derivatives market since 1973 and a theorization of its implications for currency movements, particularly monetary volatility, of emerging market currencies; third, an illustration by way of the South African and Brazilian cases of the policy implications of currency volatility for creating improved social and economic conditions.     

Blessing or Curse for Advocacy? How News Media Attention Helps Advocacy Groups to Achieve Their Policy Goals

This article asks whether and under what circumstances a presence in news media debates helps advocacy groups to achieve their policy goals in European Union (EU) legislative politics. Common wisdom holds that lobbyists eschew the public spotlight and prefer to influence policymaking from behind the scenes. This perception contrasts with the literature on media and interest groups, which typically conceives of media attention as a crucial commodity for interest groups to influence policy decisions. This article unites these seemingly contrasting stances by arguing that media attention can be both a blessing and a curse for advocacy. The central argument posited is that media attention may improve or reduce advocacy groups’ chances of preference attainment depending on how advocacy groups frame their message in the news. The analyses draw from interviews with more than 200 policy practitioners and content analysis of 3,557 media statements connected to a sample of 125 EU policy proposals. The findings demonstrate that an advocacy group’s media presence may improve preference attainment, but only when the advocacy group manages to frame its objectives in the news as aligned with the public interest.     

东南亚金融危机与美国次贷危机对中国经济影响的比较

本文以1997年7月～2001年12月和2008年4月～2009年7月的月度哦计数据②为基础，运用定量比较的方法，从对外贸易、股市、GDP、利率、货币供应量、财政支出等角度，对东南亚金融危机与美国次贷危机给中国经济造成的影响和危机期间的宏观经济政策作了详细的研究。结果表明，美国次贷危机对于我国经济的影响要大于东南亚金融危机，但是由于及时调整了宏观经济政策，采取了更加积极的财政政策和宽松的货币政策，当前我国GDP的季度增长没有太大的波动。     

Development in motion: what to think about migration?

Recent interest in migrant remittances as a development resource calls attention to a deeper issue: the relationship between migration and development. Remittances may be a significant source of economic inflows to poor countries and regions, but their actual development impact (positive or negative) is tied to the migration processes that generate them. Attention to migration in turn creates an opportunity to think about the broader context of development policy and practice, and to re-think the boundaries that we put around our work.     

US anti‐terrorism policies: Lessons to be learned to meet an enduring and changing threat

The evolution of United States anti‐terrorism policies has been marked by inconsistency and the lack of a unity of action. The declaratory no ransom policy enunciated by President Nixon has been constantly violated. In addition, the absence of a consensus on the nature of terrorism has been exacerbated by bureaucratic turf battles. This debate has created negative administrative and operational impacts on the organizations that are responsible for meeting the terrorist threat. Bureaucratically, despite the attempt to coordinate action through the lead agency concept, Washington's anti‐terrorism mechanism remain unnecessarily complex. Furthermore, different operational approaches to combating terrorism have impeded the development of an integrated counter‐terrorism capability. The need for streamlining has become critical in the rapidly transforming international arena. The use of terrorism by governments who seek regional hegemony and the development of the ‘Gray Area Phenomenon’ where non‐state actors employ terrorism as a means of realizing their objectives will challenge Washington's resolve. The political leadership faces the task of reconciling the present budgetary constraints with the requirements to identify and effectively respond to future threats.     

Humanitarian impacts of economic sanctions on Iran and Syria

International sanctions against Iran and Syria have been tightened to unprecedented levels since 2012, particularly in the case of the European Union's (EU's) restrictions on the countries' energy and finance sectors. Marking a departure from the EU's carefully targeted sanctions policies of recent decades, they represent de facto comprehensive measures widely associated with negative humanitarian impacts. This paper analyses semi-structured interviews, official discourse and case studies to explore early reports of negative impacts on the health of ordinary citizens in Iran and Syria and examines associated policy responses, particularly in the EU context. The author outlines why a shift towards broader-based sanctions could be problematic for the EU and outlines constraints currently preventing more efficient risk mitigation. This paper suggests ways that sanctions, representing an increasingly vital, albeit contested, tool of EU foreign and security policy, could be used in a more prudent manner if a worsening humanitarian situation is to be avoided.     

Basic education clusters in Cambodia: looking at the future while learning from the past

School clusters have been adopted as an education policy by most Asian countries since the 1960s. In Cambodia, primary schools have been organised in clusters since 1993. Clusters were considered a mechanism for quality improvements of education and a way to facilitate sharing and interaction between schools. Primary school clusters have been partially successful. Today there is a growing interest among Cambodian policymakers for integrating primary schools (Grades 1–6) and lower secondary schools (Grades 7–9). This article provides a policy suggestion by arguing for extending the cluster mechanism to these integrated basic education schools with all grades from 1 to 9.     

US mainland,EU archipelago? Convergence and divergence on transnational organized crime

The fight against organized crime has become a top security priority for the European Union (EU). While a new policy area is emerging, it is difficult to understand who is in lead and how the process develops. This article delves into the post-Lisbon EU security model, exploring how Washington and Brussels collaborate in combating organized crime in a context of changing definitions, actors and policies. It argues that US definitions, operational models and policies influence EU institutional thinking and policies, shifting the emphasis from prevention and rule of law to execution and intelligence. The dynamics of policy convergence and divergence on criminal matters in the transatlantic community reflect tectonic shifts in the deepest levels of thinking security in the West, affecting the moulding of a European security identity.     

Competing interests and technology policies: A rational choice approach

This paper explores the competition over technology policies by various domestic and foreign interest groups or stakeholders. An expected utility model is used to simulate the competition over the nature and direction of the American supersonic transport (SST) program in the 60s and 70s. The simulation shows that this rational choice approach offers a powerful analytical tool for examing technology and other foreign economic policy processes. The expected utility simulation allows for a more rigorous inspection of the explanations presented in the political economy literature which should allow scholars to’ further explore expectations and conclusions about strategic trade and other foreign economic policies.     

The policy-making dimension of post-conflict governance: the experience of Aceh,Indonesia

Rebuilding and strengthening the essential functions of government is a critical aspect of peace-building and recovery after conflict. There is now a wide literature on the challenges of post-conflict state-building based on the international community's experiences in such places as Kosovo, East Timor, Iraq and Afghanistan. Much of this literature is concerned with the challenges of strengthening administration and service provision—what might be loosely called the policy implementation functions of government. Much less attention has been given to the policy formulation capacities of post-conflict governments. This is surprising given the importance of conflict-sensitive policies for peace-building and for laying the foundations for economic growth and employment. Many post-conflict governments lack capacity for policy development—a gap that is often filled by international technical assistance. In cases where the international community is providing support to a reasonably functioning government after a conflict, this study argues that more attention needs to be given to the government's policy-making capacity. Using the experience of post-conflict Aceh as a prism, the study argues that technical advice can be too easily wasted unless there is concomitant support for developing the institutional infrastructure needed to manage advice and to prepare options for political deliberation and choice.