The influence of interest: Real US interest rates and bilateral investment treaties

Bilateral Investment Treaties (BITs) present developing countries with a trade-off. BITs plausibly increase access to international capital in the form of foreign direct investment (FDI), but at the cost of substantially curtailing a government’s policy autonomy. Nearly 3000 BITs have been entered into, suggesting that many countries have found this trade-off acceptable. But governments’ enthusiasm for signing and ratifying BITs has varied considerably across countries and across time. Why are BITs more popular in some places and times than others? We argue that capital scarcity is an important driver of BIT signings: The trade-off inherent in BITs becomes more attractive to governments as the need to secure access to international capital increases. More specifically, we argue that the coincidence of high US interest rates and net external financial liabilities heightens governments’ incentives to secure access to foreign capital, and therefore results in BIT signings. Empirical evidence is consistent with our theory.     

2000年中东欧形势回顾与展望

2000年中东欧地区政治形势总体趋稳,经济普遍增长,加入欧洲一体化的进程也取得了进展。预计今后几年该地区将继续保持稳定发展的势头,加盟入约的步伐也将加快。一、政治形势趋稳2000年中东欧国家虽选举活动频繁,但各国政局普遍较为稳定,政权更迭顺利。(一)“大选年”局势平稳新一届领导产生。(1)总统大选。除波兰的克瓦希涅夫斯基在10月8日的总统选举中获得连任,克罗地亚、匈牙利、南联盟、罗马尼亚在2000年都产生了新总统。1月克人民党主席梅西奇当选总统。6月匈牙利无党派人士马德·费伦茨在匈总统选举中以2/3多数获胜。9月24日南大选,反…     

中东欧转型经济的现状与前景

中东欧国家①从计划经济向市场经济转型已经 1 0年 ,已渡过混乱、衰退的最艰难时期 ,大多数国家初步确立了市场经济框架 ,转型开始进入攻坚阶段 ,制度基础和金融体系的完善及大中型企业的改造将成为今后的主要挑战。随着地区局势逐步稳定、入盟进程加快 ,中东欧经济增长前景较为乐观。一、转型经济现状(一 )经济转型程度与成效。1、政府职能发生根本转变。目前 ,政府摆脱了“全能政府”的困境 ,走出了完全从经济中抽身的歧途 ,主要通过资源配置、财政政策等手段发挥宏观调控作用 ,利用税收、利率、信贷等手段对国有企业实行间接管理 ,并通过…     

金融危机下的中东欧:冲击及其应对

金融危机虽然在中东欧登陆较晚,冲击却很大,已造成这些国家金融体系陷入困境、经济增长放缓甚至负增长、工业生产下滑、对外贸易缩减、通货膨胀严重、失业率上升,并引发了各种政治社会问题,如政府威信下降甚至垮台、民粹主义势力抬头等。金融危机在中东欧国家的蔓延,既与国际金融危机的传导机制有关,也与中东欧国家本身经济发展模式的缺陷和政府能力的脆弱相连。中东欧各国虽先后采取了一系列危机应对举措,但实际效果并不明显。国际援助也不足以使中东欧国家摆脱危机。     

Mortgage lending,banking crises,and financial stability in Asia and Europe

Our paper investigates the relationship between financial stability and mortgage lending. We estimated the effect of the share of mortgage lending by individual banks (together with some control variables) on two measures of financial stability—the bank Z-score and the non-performing loan ratio—for a sample of 1889 banks in 65 advanced and emerging economies for the period 1987–2014 from the Bankscope database. We specifically compared the behavior of banks in Europe and Asia. We find evidence that an increased share of mortgage lending is positive for financial stability, specifically by lowering the probability of default by financial institutions and reducing the non-performing loan ratio, at least in non-crisis periods, for levels of mortgage shares up to 49–68%. For higher levels of mortgage lending shares, the impact on financial stability turns negative. Also, the occurrence of a banking crisis reduces the diversification benefits associated with mortgage lending. Compared with the base sample, Asian banks show greater financial stability during non-crisis periods, but are more negatively affected by a higher mortgage ratio during crisis periods, while European banks show greater financial stability during non-crisis periods, but are less negatively affected during crisis periods. Finally, a higher level of regulatory quality improves both financial stability measures, but the effects of macroprudential measures are found to be mixed.     

The effect of ECB communication on interest rates: An assessment

This paper reviews the literature on the communication policy of the European Central Bank (ECB) addressing two questions. First, to what extent has ECB communication affected interest rates? Second, to what extent has ECB communication affected the predictability of the ECB’s interest rate decisions? On the basis of a survey of empirical studies, it is concluded that various forms of ECB communication lead to more volatility. However, studies focusing on volatility cannot assess whether markets moved in the intended direction. To analyze whether this is the case, researchers have coded ECB communications. Studies using this approach yield evidence that communications generally move financial markets in the intended direction. There is also substantive evidence that ECB communications increase the predictability of interest decisions by the ECB Governing Council. Finally, the consequences of the fact that ECB officials often gave contrasting signals to market participants are analyzed. New evidence suggests that inconsistent communication causes agents to make less accurate predictions. The policy implication is that central bankers should take care that their statements are consistent.     

The Origins of Atlanticism in Central and Eastern Europe

This article argues that the Atlanticism of Central and Eastern Europe originates in a specific set of historical experiences these countries have had with the United States over the past century. These include the Central and East European encounter with both Nazi and communist totalitarian regimes; a recognition of the leading role the US played in toppling communism and in facilitating the integration of these countries into Euro-Atlantic institutions; and the strategic calculation of many countries in the region that their national interests in Europe are better preserved via active American engagement that balances the influence of other major European powers.     

Mapping perception of China in Central and Eastern Europe

Asia Europe Journal - Since the 2008 Beijing Olympic and Global Financial Crisis, the rise of China has been a key topic in the international arena. Capitals in the USA and Western Europe, as...     

The New Geopolitics of Central and Eastern Europe

Central and Eastern Europe is located between the East and the West.Big powers have traditionally competed for influence in the region and it has only enjoyed limited independence.After the Cold War,most of Central and Eastern Europe joined the EU and NATO and focused on political and economic transformations.Mostly these processes went smoothly and the region lost the world's attention.     

Different cases,different faces: Chinese investment in Central and Eastern Europe

Chinese investment in Central and Eastern Europe (CEE) is booming. As China’s investment pattern has emerged so far, it appears to have little to do with Chinese firms’ preferences for liberal policy regimes, tolerance for corruption, or reliance on communist-era networks. This article documents the current size and shape of Chinese firms’ efforts to internationalize in this economic space, demonstrating an important difference between Chinese investment behavior in CEE and in the EU-15, namely the region’s much more active use of greenfield activity (and lighter use of M&A and strategic alliances). Case studies of each mode (greenfield, M&A, and strategic alliances) reveal little evidence of a “China, Inc.” approach and much evidence that Chinese firms are more motivated by market access than by technology or management assistance.     

“一带一路”倡议在中东欧地区的机遇和挑战

既有传统友谊、区位优势、市场需求等因素所奠定的坚实基础,又有中国—中东欧国家合作等现有机制产生的先期经验和成果,共建"一带一路"倡议的落实在中东欧地区具有较为显著的优势,是其展现早期收获、产生辐射效应的重要地区。但同时,现有合作机制在运作中遭遇的问题及中东欧各国对新时期中国外交理念与实践的关注和疑虑等也构成了"一带一路"倡议在中东欧地区面临的挑战,亟待中国有效地应对。     

Managing the mixed economy in Central and Eastern Europe: Democratic politics and the role of the public sector

The central argument of this article is that the introduction of democracy and the transition to a market economy in Central and Eastern European countries is producing contradictory and even perverse effects on these societies. These effects are enlarging the micro‐macro paradox of politics and inducing political instability. Instead of focusing on the economic problems or institutionalizing democracy only, it is argued, one should elaborate more fully the relationship between democratic decision‐making, societal needs and wants in civil society and the public organization of policy‐making. In this article an attempt is made to conceptualize these relations by using the principal/agent approach. In addition various models of welfare capitalism and public sector management are discussed and their implications for East European countries. The main conclusion is that the model of the ‘mixed economy’ is not only appropriate, but also that it contributes to a better understanding of the present problems of democratization in this part of the world. In particular the role of the democratic principal and the position of public agents appear to be crucial.     

Parity and stability: Some conclusions from geometrical models of military operations in Central Europe

This paper presents a model analysis in support of the assertion that parity at lower forces levels does not by itself improve military stability in central Europe. Most of all, a stable military regime requires that force concentrations can be constrained in a verifiable manner the more, the lower the mutual force levels become. However, this is not to be obtained with a doctrine of linear defense by means of homogeneous forces consisting of the traditional highly mobile multi‐purpose forces designed to be employed in all combat modes. Theoretically, a stable situation would result if the antagonists adopted a two‐component defense consisting of ‘reactive’ defense elements deployed in some depth and incapable of being employed in large scale offensive operations and of a smaller fraction (about 20%) of the traditional armor forces serving as operational reserves.

The basic dilemma of nearly all reactive defense elements proposed in the West‐German military reform debate rests with the generally shared assumption that mobility is incompatible with defensiveness. However, the ratios at which the traditional elements would have to be substituted by stationary reactive elements are quite high. Thus, a new type of mobility is required for reactive defense elements that permits to counter‐concentrate quickly without being useable for large scale offensive maneuver.     

美日欧环境外交政策比较

随着经济全球化的加速发展 ,国际政治经济化和国际经济政治化并行发展的趋势更加明显。一度被西方许多国际关系学者视为“低政治”的环境问题 ,在国际关系中的地位日益突出 ,甚至有上升到与传统意义的“高政治”(如外交和安全 )地位相当的趋势。当前 ,围绕环境问题的国际合作与斗争变得更加错综复杂 ,各国为追求自身更广泛的利益而开展的环境外交活动日益活跃。西方发达国家在其对外关系中已形成了各具特点的环境外交政策。一、环境问题国际化与环境外交的兴起　　环境问题国际化是环境问题进入国际关系领域的重要前提 ,也与环境问题自身的…     

The Role of Central and Eastern Europe in the Building of Silk Road Economic Belt

On September 7, 2013, Chinese President Xi Jinping delivered a speech in Kazakhstan titled, ＂Promote Friendship Between Our People and Work Together to Build a Bright Future＂, in which he proposed jointly creating a ＂Silk Road Economic Belt＂. The Silk Road Economic Belt, which encompasses political, economic,