投资苏丹利弊谈

政局趋于稳定，经济恢复增长 苏丹是非洲面积最大的国家，石油资源丰富。苏丹现政权1989年上台后，对内推行伊斯兰教法，导致苏丹南方信奉基督教各族的反对；又由于外交政策僵化，引起西方国家及其邻国的不满，西方国家对其实施不公开的经济制裁。苏丹还因在……     

苏丹南方公投前景及其影响

苏丹南部地区定于2011年1月举行公投，以决定该地区是否从苏丹分离。从目前形势看，苏丹南方公投的如期举行基本上不会有变。如果公投顺利，苏丹北南和平分离几成定局，南方将获得独立。苏丹政治上的这一重大变化将对苏丹北南双方、邻近地区、整个非洲乃至世界产生深远影响，但不致对中国与苏丹的传统友好关系造成严重冲击。     

苏丹大选亲历记

4月11—15日,非洲国土面积最大的国家苏丹举行了举世瞩目的大选。我有幸作为中国观察团成员前往苏丹,亲历了这次颇为复杂的大选．观察苏丹选后局势的发展,印象深刻。     

苏丹1999年投资鼓励法

苏丹共和国面积2505812平方公里，人口3150万，拥有铁、银、铜、铬、石油、天然气和木材等较为丰富的自然资源。经济以农牧业为主，阿拉伯树胶产量居世界第一，长绒棉产量居世界第二，花生产量居阿拉伯国家之首、世界第四，芝麻产量在阿拉伯国家和非洲均占第一位。但苏丹是世界最不发达国家之一，经济基础薄弱。为吸引投资以促进经济发展，苏丹政府于1999年7月颁布了新投资法——《1999年投资鼓励法》(以下简称新投资法)。本刊现摘要发表由苏丹驻华大使馆提供的这部新投资法的中译本，希望对有意到苏丹投资的中国企业有所帮助。     

中国的苏丹问题研究综述(1949～2006年)

yh苏丹地处非洲板块、亚欧板块和印度洋三大板块之交,汇集伊斯兰教、基督教和黑非洲三大文明于一身。作为非洲最大的国家,苏丹拥有250多万平方公里的领土,耕地广袤,物产丰富,繁衍生息着约600个“地方民族”①。早在公元前750多年,这里的人们就建立了伟大的库施王国,并统治埃及大半个世纪。苏丹于19世纪末沦为英埃共管地,1956年独立后又饱经40多年内战的苦楚。2003年爆发的达尔富尔人道主义危机吸引了全球的目光。目前,中国对苏丹问题研究还比较滞后。本文试图对建国以来中国对苏丹问题研究作一概述。认识苏丹(1956～1965年)建国伊始,中国的…     

卡宾达危机：下一个南苏丹？——浅析安哥拉的卡宾达问题

卡宾达“独立”运动是现代非洲政治中历史最为悠久的分离主义势力之一，自安哥拉独立建国以来长期威胁该国的主权与领土完整。在具有相似性质的南苏丹分离运动于2011年走向全面胜利的背景下，这个困扰刚果河口地区近40年的历史遗留问题将何去何从是值得关注的。本文将在结合南苏丹独立所依赖的一系列条件的基础上，分析影响卡宾达危机发展的各种既有因素，同时讨论南苏丹现象发酵后可能给卡宾达问题的解决带来的新的不确定性。卡宾达未来是否能够成为第二个南苏丹将依赖于各方力量的最终博弈。     

苏丹内战中的宗教因素

苏丹内战是当今世界历时最长、产生原因最复杂、冲突解决最棘手的内战之一。导致苏丹内战爆发和持续的因素主要有宗教问题、种族问题、认同问题、殖民遗留问题、国家权力分配问题、环境资源问题及外部影响问题等 ,但宗教问题是最关键的因素。北方伊斯兰教和南方基督教的冲突对内战的爆发、进程及未来走向都有根本性的影响。因此可以说 ,苏丹内战就是宗教冲突激化和延续的结果与表现。两种宗教固有的不同政治观是导致南北冲突的本质原因 ,也决定了冲突的解决必然是困难重重。尽管苏丹内战可望结束 ,但无宗教间的真正平等与友好就不会有苏丹的真正和平与统一。     

中国与南苏丹石油合作的机遇与挑战

南苏丹是世界上最依赖石油收入和出口的国家,还面临着石油勘探前景黯淡,缺乏配套石油工业和石油基础设施、对从苏丹继承的石油合同的修改空间有限,以及与苏丹的跨界油田的管理问题尚未理顺等诸多困境。目前,在南苏丹的石油产业管理体系还尚未形成的背景下,中国石油企业应当在充分理解南苏丹的环境与社会公平等问题的基础上,积极与南苏丹商议石油合同的继承与修改问题,抓住美国继续维持对南苏丹石油投资限制的机遇,巩固在南苏丹的石油投资。中国政府应当协调与南苏丹及苏丹关系中的石油利益,依托多边声誉机制和具有正式制度的第三方机制,改善中国与南苏丹能源合作机制的单一性,维护中国在南苏丹合法的石油利益。     

联合国为何解除对苏丹的制裁

9·11事件后不久，联合国解除了对苏丹持续5年的制裁。虽然制裁解除与否对苏丹无任何实际意义，因为制裁本身实际上形同虚设，但制裁的解除反映了一些深层次的问题，这其中包括苏丹政府在对待恐怖主义问题上的态度变化，苏丹政府外交政策的调整，美国对苏丹政策的改变，以及苏丹所蕴藏的丰富石油资源等。     

南苏丹独立对苏丹经济发展的影响

2011年7月9日,南苏丹独立是一个影响苏丹经济发展进程的重大转折点。苏丹由于丧失75%的石油权益导致经济陷入困境,倚重石油行业支撑的发展模式被迫转型。目前,苏丹经济面临增速放缓与高通胀并行、出口创汇能力下降与财政投入捉襟见肘、外债攀升等诸多挑战。中国与苏丹经贸关系密切,不可避免地受到了南苏丹独立带来的负面影响,中苏石油贸易和投资合作也受殃及。     

Emergency relief programmes for pastoral communities

This article makes the case that emergency relief programmes in pastoral areas of Africa do little to relieve the fundamental effect of famine, which is destitution. It argues that traditional mechanisms of coping with drought are often disrupted by food-aid programmes, especially Food-For-Work. Three case studies from Sudan and Kenya are used to support the argument. The article concludes by making policy recommendations for emergency programmes to be more effective in meeting the primary need of pastoralists following severe drought, which is to rebuild herds and therefore their livelihoods.     

Soft Power and the Currency of Sports: (Re)imagining South Africa’s Rising Hegemony in Africa

Commenting on the utility of sports as a development facilitating instrument, Nelson Mandela, in 2000, remarked that it “has the power to change the world. It has the power to inspire. It has the power to unite people in a way that little else can. Sport can awaken hope where there was previously only despair”. Madiba’s iconic statement captures the changing reality of the international system wherein states appreciate the soft power potential of sports as a subtle alternative for gaining political advantage in the international arena. This also lends credence to the argument that politics permeates all elements of social existence, including sports. In view of the preceding, this paper interrogates the rising attractiveness of South Africa in Africa and perhaps globally through the lens of its sporting engagements. From the last decade of the 20th century, South Africa’s status in the sporting world has attracted much international and scholarly attention. The article examines how South Africa negotiates the overlapping arena of politics, sports and foreign policy to normatively secure a regional hegemonic posture through a blend of strategies. These include successful bidding and hosting of sporting mega-events; involvement in the development of sporting codes and local sports content across Africa and a positive cumulative ranking in international competitions vis-à-vis other contenders for regional powerhood. The analysis takes the position that South Africa’s strategy of sports diplomacy masks its aspiration for regional hegemony and this pattern is uniquely relevant for shaping empirical understanding of power politics in Africa as well as appreciating the ideational potency of soft power as a constitutive element of what makes a regional hegemon.     

中东2019：内外危机加剧与地区格局失衡

2019年中东局势呈现内外危机加剧、地区格局失衡两大特征。从大国看,美国针对伊朗的"极限施压"空前严厉,伊朗设法反制,双方游走冲突边缘。美伊对峙的松与紧影响着波斯湾与西亚的安与危。从地区看,苏丹、阿尔及利亚、伊拉克、黎巴嫩四个阿拉伯国家爆发持续性民众抗议,冲击旧政治体制,上演新版"阿拉伯之春"。四国动荡加剧阿拉伯阵营弱化,引发土耳其、以色列、伊朗三强竞夺,地区格局进一步失衡。美伊关系紧张、阿拉伯世界弱化、地区格局失衡既是老问题,又有新表现,持续搅乱中东局势。     

2011年中东局势的六大看点

2011年，中东地区发生的政治大地震波及地区各国，但程度各不相同。阿拉伯共和制政权持续动荡，而君主制政权相对稳定。土耳其、伊朗地区影响力上升；巴以和谈搁浅，前景堪忧；美国等西方国家插手地区事务，扮演了不光彩的角色；南苏丹赢得独立，但将面，临重重困难。     

Speaking the language of security: the Commonwealth,the Francophonie and the CPLP in conflict management in Africa

The last decade has seen an unprecedented increase in conflict management activities in Africa by international organisations. This has been accompanied by a flurry of academic publications and of policy reports that stress the comparative advantages at the legal and operational levels of regional and other intergovernmental organisations. The article assesses this dominant favourable view by examining the role of the Commonwealth, the Francophonie and the CPLP in Africa. Traditionally regarded as cultural organisations, they have gradually extended their profile to include a security mandate. Drawing from fieldwork and an extensive review of the literature, the article presents the first comparative study of the conflict management activities of these organisations in Africa.     

非洲海洋污染控制法律机制初探

非洲的海洋污染形势非常严峻。为此,非洲各国采纳了一系列全球性和区域性法律机制。其中后者虑及了非洲近岸海域独特的自然、地理及人文等方面的独特性,较好地推动了非洲区域沿海国家之间的区域合作。但基于政治、经济及社会等诸多因素,非洲各国政府未能有效实施海洋污染控制法律机制,导致了海洋污染形势的恶化。因此,非洲的海洋污染与可持续发展问题需要国际社会的关注,更需要非洲各国自主地予以应对。     

The South African Broadcasting Corporation's expansion into Africa: South African media imperialism?

Abstract

This article examines the commercial advancements of the South African Broadcasting Corporation (SABC) into the African regional media markets. In this examination, the focus is mostly on the SABC's Africa-orientated channels, SABC Africa and Africa2Africa, as a case study. The article posits that the SABC's regional commercial expansion is paradoxical in the sense that it is both advantageous and disadvantageous at the same time. At the theoretical level, the article identifies some limitations to applying theoretical and analytical frameworks such as the dependency paradigm, media and cultural imperialism in explaining regional expansionism driven by Southern-based national media organisations.     

Development cooperation,the international–domestic nexus and the graduation dilemma: comparing South Africa and Brazil

Development cooperation is a foreign policy tool marked by deep-seated conflicts of interest and dilemmas of particular relevance to second-tier and non-nuclear countries that aim to change their international status and role. Building on the concept of ‘graduation dilemma’, this article compares specific dilemmas that Brazil and South Africa face in their foreign policies concerning the development cooperation agenda at three levels: the domestic, the regional and the global level. The research question guiding this analysis is: how does the graduation dilemma manifest in relation to Brazil and South Africa’s role in development cooperation?     

苏丹民族国家建构失败的原因解析

苏丹民族国家建构失败的主要标志就是2011年的南北分立。究其原因,首先是苏丹长期封闭落后,缺乏统一的历史实践和民意基础。埃及人以掠夺为主要诉求的征服式治理给苏丹的南北交往留下了深刻仇恨和痛苦记忆。阿拉伯穆斯林精英们以埃及为观察世界的窗口,在独立后未能有效运转英国人留下的国家框架。苏丹政府在独立后未能借助福利或社会保障体系减缓政治和阶级冲突;由于全球化带来的时代特征转变,苏丹政府也无法借助对武装暴力的合法性垄断减缓社会冲突,苏丹最终在内外因素的共同作用下走向分裂。分立后的苏丹和南苏丹依然面临着民族国家建构的任务。     

Radicalisation and violent extremism in West Africa: implications for African and international security

This article interrogates emerging trends and patterns in the process of radicalisation and violent extremism in West Africa and the implications for regional and international security regimes, practices and thinking. It argues that there are real and imagined challenges of radicalisation and violent extremism. The overarching view is that the emergence of intra- and extra-African preoccupation with violent extremism alone, rather than alongside seriously addressing its structural undercurrents related to preventing and interrupting the process of radicalisation, distorts the security realities and further exacerbates the security situation in Africa. Radicalisation and violent extremism further integrates West Africa into global security assemblages, yet the absence or non-incorporation of an indigenous African (civil society) perspective or counter-narrative about radicalisation and violent extremism uncritically fuses and conflates the strategic interests of major powers with the local realities in Africa. Moreover, there is a huge potential that national governments could exploit local, regional and international interests in counteracting terrorism for domestic political advantages, such as mis-characterisation of subsisting conflicts, regular political opposition and other local grievances as cases of terrorism, thereby risking a deterioration in security conditions.