新冠疫情背景下中日韩粮食安全合作的空间与战略

具有不同资源禀赋的中日韩三国,原本存在着不同程度的粮食安全问题.新冠疫情冲击了国际粮食产业链,干扰了世界粮食生产与贸易的正常运行,使得中日韩三国的粮食安全问题再度凸显.尽管中日韩已初步构建起政府间粮食合作机制,但存在机制议程化现象和农产品保护主义盛行等诸多问题.新冠疫情推动了经济全球化向本土化、区域化方向的转变,促使中日韩三国更加深刻地意识到彼此间高度相互依赖关系的同时,也提升了中日韩粮食安全合作的必要性与紧迫性.三国应共同努力,从供给、流通和市场三个层面扎实推进实质性的合作进程.     

《区域全面经济伙伴关系协定》背景下中日韩自由贸易区建设:影响与前景

《区域全面经济伙伴关系协定》的缔结为加速中日韩自由贸易协定谈判创造了条件.然而,日韩两国对区域经济合作走向的调整以及三国围绕"RCEP+"议题的博弈、中美战略竞争等因素对中日韩自由贸易协定的复杂影响依然存在,中方加速协定谈判面临挑战.在新冠肺炎疫情防控常态化背景下,中日韩自由贸易协定对三方管控供应链风险、加速经济复苏、打造地区最终消费市场、推动东亚区域经济一体化升级具有重要的战略意义.而协定的关键在于中国能否在全球主要经济体当中率先实现强劲复苏,促使日韩主要从经济收益视角审视协定的价值,管控相互竞争与制衡思维,搁置争议、加强合作.     

疫情背景下东亚区域经济合作及日本政府的政策取向

伴随WTO多边贸易机制陷入停顿,区域性经贸协定进展迅速,世界范围内CPTPP、日欧EPA、USMCA已经生效,疫情之前东亚区域经济合作也步入快车道,RCEP进入收官阶段,中日韩3国还承诺在RCEP之后加速中日韩FTA谈判。而新冠疫情的暴发催生了东亚国家或地区在疫情防治和公共卫生等领域的合作,却给既定的东亚区域经济合作进程蒙上了阴影,疫情后日本经济政策的转向将极大增加年内签署RCEP的不确定性。     

亚洲货币一体化模式浅析

一、引言 2000年5月6日,东盟与中日韩三国财政部长在泰国清迈就东亚地区财政金融合作,特别是就在东盟十国和中日韩三国（10 3）的机制下建立“双边货币互换机制”达成共识,并发表联合声明（也称“清迈协议”）。声明指出,为进一步保持区域经济稳     

中日韩“三角牌局”

从某种角度来说,正是美国主导的《跨太平洋战略经济伙伴协定》的粉墨登场,刺激了中日韩自贸区的加快进程。作为东亚经济整合的关键一步,不久前中日韩三国北京峰会达成协议,年内将启动自贸区(FTA)谈判。之所以讲其"关键",是因为未来的世界经济竞争,既是国与国的较量,更是经济集团的比拼,     

论东北亚经济共同体

"东北亚经济共同体"可以定义为"东北亚地区各国在经济上互相合作、互相融合,实现经济一体化的制度化组织".它与目前功能性的东北亚区域经济合作相区别,两者是并存而非包容的关系.建立东北亚所有国家参加的经济共同体的条件较难成熟,中日韩三国必须先行一步.因此,东北亚经济共同体从近期看,就是中日韩经济共同体.东北亚经济共同体与东亚共同体可以同时推进.另外,构建东北亚经济共同体时必须考虑到如何处理好与美国的关系.     

经济复苏背景下中韩FTA战略选择探讨

随着国际经济复苏迹象的日趋明显，如何构建中韩FTA适应世界经济格局的新变化，对中韩两国来说具有重要的经济和政治意义。本文在剖析中韩两国各自FTA战略的基础上，根据三国经济福利水平变化模型提出了中韩、中日韩和东盟“10＋3”FTA三个方案的战略构想，并得出中韩FTA战略的最大可能为中日韩FTA，继而提出了中国FTA谈判的针对性策略。     

中日韩三国的战略信赖度分析

本文以战略互信理论为主要依据,探讨了中日韩三国的战略定位,并在尝试建立中日韩三国战略互信度模型的基础上,对影响中日韩三国战略互信关系的主要因素进行了较为系统的分析,并指出构筑和进一步建立中日韩三国稳定的战略互信关系,是东北亚多边安全机制构建的核心和基础。     

中国申奥成功和加入WTO对东北亚经济态势的影响

中国申奥成功和加入WTO后,日本在东北亚经济中的中心位置将由中国取而代之,中日韩三国间原有的垂直分工结构将朝水平分工结构的方向转变,东亚经济的"雁阵型模式"和"阶梯式连带型的发展"将一去不复返.随着中国历史性地成为世界经济在东亚地区的聚焦点,只有积极地与中国谋求经济合作,才是未来日韩两国经济发展的根本出路.     

建立中日韩FTA的有利条件、制约因素及路径选择

建立中日韩FTA有其不可否认的有利条件,同时也难免存在各种各样的制约因素.关于建立中日韩FTA的路径有好几种构想,笔者在列举和评价这些构想后,认为,中日韩的双边和多边合作机制可以在东盟的合作框架下,通过3个"10 1"的具体渠道而形成,从而促进了中日韩三国的紧密合作.     

Trilateral trade relations among China,Japan and South Korea: Challenges and prospects of regional economic integration

China’s emergence as a global and regional manufacturing center has significant implications for the Northeast Asian economies of Japan and South Korea. China's trade with Japan and South Korea has been rapidly growing in relative importance, largely facilitated by China's rise as a regional production base as well as changes in the trade structures between China and her neighbours. Indeed, in recent years, China has been the main driving force behind Northeast Asian trade interdependency. The strong economic linkages and complementarities among China, Japan and South Korea augur well for the further integration among the three Northeast Asian countries. Establishing a trilateral free trade arrangement (FTA) provide new opportunities to enhance the three countries’ overall growth potential through trade and investment. However, such Northeast Asian regional integration is destined to be a long, drawn out process. The forging of a trilateral trading arrangement between China and her two neighbours remain a long term vision in view of the many outstanding issues and obstacles.     

Trade between Bohai of China and Korea: An international perspective

This article investigates the current state and future prospects of trade between South Korea and China, with a focus on China's Bohai region. First, it compares basic economic profiles, including trade patterns of China, Bohai, and Korea. Then, it explores trade prospects between these economies using the aid of the indices, such as export similarity and trade complementarity. The article also examines the trade creation and diversion effects of trade between Korea, China, and Bohai during the last decade, and, finally, presents alternative future trade projections. Editor's Note: The three articles in this section were originally prepared for and presented at an international conference on Regional Development in the Yellow Sea Rim, in February 1991, in Seoul, Korea. The conference was part of a two-year collaborative study on regional development in the Yellow Sea Rim, involving researchers from China, South Korea, the United States, and Japan. The study was organized by the East-West Population Institute of Hawaii and supported by many research institutions and government agencies in China and the Republic of Korea. In particular, the State Science and Technology Commission of China and the Korea Research Institute for Human Settlements are acknowledged for their generous support.     

Northeast Asian Economic Integration: A Region in Flux

Over the last decade, essentially since the Asian crisis of 1997–98, the economic integration of Northeast Asia has been marked by three overarching trends. Economic relations have become: 1) more institutionalized; 2) more “Asian;” and 3) more China-centric. These macro-trends are demonstrated and analyzed in the paper. But by way of anticipation, numerous counter-cutting facts need also to be kept in mind. In essence, recent trends, notable as they are, have by no means reversed three counter-realities: 1) economic ties are still largely driven, less by governments and formal arrangements, than by corporations in search of profits and production efficiencies; 2) despite growing economic interdependence across Northeast Asia and between that sub-region and Southeast Asia, Japan, China and South Korea remain heavily linked to global, and particularly US, markets; and 3) though China is an ever important hub in Northeast Asian trade and investment, Japan remains by far the most powerful economic player in the region.     

The Potential of China-Japan-South Korea Free Trade Agreement

This article explores the economic calculations behind the recent initiatives for the Free Trade Agreement (FTA) between the Governments of China, Japan and South Korea (CJK) and clarifies the implications for future regional economic integration. First, the proposed trilateral FTA signifies an advancement of China-centered regional economic integration. Regional economic integration led by China may also increase its political clout at the global stage. Second, the Governments of South Korea and Japan seek greater involvement in China's huge domestic market, but the former is concerned that a trilateral FTA will worsen its trade deficit with Japan, and the latter is afraid of losing its market shares in China and America to its Korean rival. Japan, therefore, seeks membership of both the CJK FTA and the Trans-Pacific Partnership (TPP). Third, China and the US' active involvement in regional economic integration will push the three countries to go forward towards greater economic cooperation. However, it will take longer for China-led Regional Comprehensive Economic Partnership (RCEP) and America-led TPP to bear fruit because of the large number of countries involved. Therefore, the conclusion of CJK FTA will be an important boost for the further progress of both RCEP and TPP. It will also be an important stabiliser for the trilateral political relations in the future.     

试析中日韩三国合作秘书处的功能性定位

中日韩合作进程中面临着诸多障碍和不确定性因素，刚成立不久的中日韩三国合作秘书处因此也就面临着诸多挑战，如何进行准确的功能性定位是秘书处工作能否取得实效的关键。作者认为秘书处现阶段的工作重点和立足点应该以低敏感性非传统安全合作议题为突破口，从经贸合作、减灾救灾协调、突发事件应对、警务合作、文化交流等低敏感性领域入手，并逐步完善秘书处内部的各项机构建设，设立各专门-＇k-员会，循序渐进地为推进中日韩合作全局服务。     

韩中文化交流现状与展望——以出版业为例

韩中两国自1992年建交以来的20余年间,双方在经贸、教育、互访、国际婚姻、文化以及人力资源等领域的合作交往日益深化。其中,出版业奠定了所有交流领域的文化基础,具有重要的意义。到目前为止,韩中双方的出版业交流主要以纸类书籍为主。如今,随着IT产业的发达,孕育了电子书产生的背景,引起了图书史上的一场革命。要想促进电子书更广泛的交流,必须要加强著作权的保护,提高读者交付阅读费用的认识,普及价格低廉的阅读器,统一电子书的标准发展平台等问题要率先得到考虑与完善。电子书便利的使用途径、互联网简单的传播方式、低廉的购买费用和管理费用、大量传播、多媒体资源的有效利用等优点,可以更加有效地促进韩中两国的文化理解,增进友好关系。因此,电子书是两国文化交流不可或缺的新型载体。     

日本实施FTA战略的进展和挑战

20世纪90年代末,日本对外贸易政策发生了重大转变。日本政府在1999年发表的《通商白皮书》中首次提出了要在坚持多边主义立场的同时,与其他国家或地区签定自由贸易协定(FTA)或与亚洲大多数国家签定经济伙伴协定(EPA)。日本实施FTA战略在经济上的主要原因是日本看到了美国欧盟都在积极开展区域合作,感到自己有被边缘化的危险,政治上的原因是要抵消中国的影响。目前日本正在实施与新加坡和墨西哥的FTA,同时又正在与马来西亚、菲律宾、泰国、印度尼西亚和韩国进行FTA谈判,并考虑与澳大利亚、越南、瑞士和海湾合作委员会六国进行FTA谈判。日本实施FTA战略对国内农业政策和人员流动政策提出了挑战,在国际上对美国尤其是中国提出了挑战。本文通过对日本实施 FTA战略进展作出较为全面的概述,使我们更加感到中国实施FTA战略的必要性和急迫性。     

Changing Security Relationship between Japan and South Korea: Frictions and Hopes

Japan has long played the role as the main operating base for Korean contingencies. It has also provided rear-area logistic support to the US forces fighting in Korea and helped South Korea build up its defense industrial base. However, the Japan-South Korea relationship has deteriorated in recent years due to short-term political and long-term economic and strategic reasons. At this point, South Korea is bandwagoning with China and deemphasizing its relationship with Japan. China-South Korea relations are not without problems, however, and Japan regards South Korea as one of the most important potential strategic partners in maintaining stability in Asia. In the future, the most decisive factor in determining the direction of the security relationship between Japan and South Korea will be China.     

欧盟参与全球价值链分工的现状及决定因素分析

本文采用Eora全球价值链数据库,测算了欧盟国家1990年至2018年的全球价值链参与度及其地位指数,从欧盟总体、成员国以及欧盟典型贸易国的行业部门三个角度入手,全面讨论了欧盟参与全球价值链的分工特征;在此基础上,考察了欧盟全球价值链参与度及其地位的决定因素。研究结果表明,1990年以来,欧盟总体参与全球价值链的规模和参与度得到提升,德国、法国、意大利等成员国对欧盟参与全球价值链的贡献值最大。此外,制造业是各个成员国参与全球价值链分工的主要方式,但是包括制造业在内的行业在全球价值链中的地位出现了不同程度的下降。从决定因素的实证分析来看,人均国内生产总值、研发投入、基础设施和自然资源禀赋是欧盟参与全球价值链的主要决定因素。     

后金融危机时代的中日贸易特点、前景与对策

分析后金融危机时代的中日贸易关系,发现全球金融危机对中日贸易的冲击破坏力远远大于亚洲金融危机的影响。虽然中日贸易总额受到剧烈冲击,但是日本对华出口价格指数未受到太大冲击,中国仍是日本最大贸易伙伴国,中日进出口商品贸易并非全线下降,中国对日进口生产用品及中国对日出口低端非耐用消费品均表现出逆境中的增长态势。文中最后预测了两国贸易发展将止跌企稳,并提出了后金融危机时代的对策与建议。