Somali pirates: villains or victims?

The proliferation of piracy activity off the coast of Somalia has received a fair share of international attention. Its consequences have included a destabilising effect on trade, security and humanitarian aid. This has served to give reason for the deployment of multi-national forces by some of the countries affected by the scourge. While naval patrols have reduced the success rate of piracy attacks in some areas, there has been little respite in piracy incidents with the overall number of attacks and their geographic scope increasing. Piracy off the coast of Somalia has, in fact, evolved into organised syndicates with transnational networks. The problem is that various international actors have largely viewed piracy off the coast of Somalia in terms of threats to their own national interests and security. They have, thus, dealt with the issue in isolation from its wider context, which has not succeeded in ending the attacks. This article argues that to deal with the piracy problem more meaningfully, there is need for a contextual framework beyond addressing the ‘illegal’ activities. Piracy is a complex problem, with political, legal, social, economic, security and even human rights dimensions, and calls for a truly holistic approach that, especially, seeks to address the root causes on land. The article calls for a change in strategies in order to facilitate a ‘local Somali solution’ rather than an international one that is acceptable to the sensibilities of international actors. The article emphasises the need to extend the strong international cooperation demonstrated on the high seas in the fight against piracy to the fight against root causes of piracy onshore.     

美国南海政策的军事化及其影响

当前,国际社会正处于"百年未有之大变局"中,中美两国竞争加剧。在这一背景下,美国南海政策的军事化倾向尤为突出。通过案例分析、运用比较分析的方法对美国南海政策军事化及其影响进行探究,可以看出美国南海政策军事化的主要目的是遏制中国的崛起。为达到这一目的,美国提升了"航行自由行动"的频率和烈度,增加了在南海内沿和外围的军事战略存在,还加强了与盟国的同盟关系。不过,美国国内有一部分人认为南海政策军事化目前并未达到其希望的效力,反而使美国在战争与和平之间愈加难以保持平衡。美国在南海地区的影响力受到挑战的同时,中美关系也因此有所倒退,南海局势变得更加复杂。鉴于此,中国一方面要保持克制态度,增强危机意识,做好预案,通过高质量外交对话等方式增进与美国的政治互信,另一方面也要加快推进与东盟国家《南海各方行为准则》的谈判与磋商,与东盟国家一道维护好南海地区的和平与稳定。     

南海问题分析与预测(2010—2011)

2010年南海问题的发展轨迹已经限定了2011年南海问题的发展趋势。2011年,美国与东盟轮值主席国印度尼西亚将有力地影响南海问题的走势。由于矛盾错综复杂,各方期待的《南海地区行为准则》相对于《南海各方行为宣言》行动指南更加难以落实。南海问题除了对相关各国的传统影响仍将继续存在之外,对区域国际关系和地缘政治的影响将有所增加。     

理解南海共同开发与航行自由问题的新思路——基于国际法视角看南海争端的解决路径

南海共同开发与航行自由问题的明确与解决,直接关系到中国的海洋权益以及南海的未来法律秩序。尽管泰国湾地区的共同开发经验能够为中国提供借鉴,但南海主海的情况与之有很大区别。共同开发方式在国际范围内接受程度不广泛,实际效果不理想,其对南海争端的可适用程度较低。因此,应对共同开发方式在南海争端解决中的作用予以重新定位。从长远的角度出发,共同开发不能成为解决南海争端的优先选择和主要方式,即便在短期内以共同开发方式为处理南海争端的权宜之计,也应当注重构建一个合理的共同开发机制。中国对南海的"历史性权利"并未被后来的有效国际法律规范所更改或取消,这一权利不能按照《联合国海洋法公约》的架构来解读,也并不存在妨碍南海航行自由的问题。相反,倒是其他南海周边国家滥用《联合国海洋法公约》规定所提出的意在分割、控制南海的种种主张更加妨碍南海的航行自由。比较之下,中国的主张更加符合南海水域本身的性质及其适用当代海洋法之后的应然状态。     

和平解决南海问题的现实思考

亚太地区安全形势和南海问题相关各国在低层次国际市场竞争的现实制约了南海问题和平解决的进程。非传统安全合作与跨国际市场梯次的共同开发将不仅有利于改善解决南海问题的外部环境,而且有利于增进相关各方的互信,推动深层次的共同开发。南海问题相关各国关系的发展和共同利益的增加将为南海问题的解决奠定坚实的基础。     

China’s rising naval ambitions in the Indian Ocean: aligning ends,ways and means

ABSTRACT

China’s naval footprint in the Indian Ocean has expanded considerably over the last decade. This growing presence has led to significant debates about China’s goals and capabilities in the region. This article argues that China’s trajectory over the last ten years reflects an alignment of ends, ways and means in the Indian Ocean. The main driver behind China’s ambitions in the region is the need for Beijing to secure pivotal maritime lines of communications that carry a large share of Chinese oil imports and a sizable part of Chinese exports. Fulfilling this mission has required a significant adjustment of China’s naval strategy, and the addition of ‘open seas protection’ to the core missions of the PLA Navy. This strategy has, in turn, been supported by the development of a navy with increased sea control capabilities and overseas basing plans that have started to materialize in Djibouti.     

论当前中国和平维护南海权益的国际环境

2010年以来,在美国高调介入南海地区事务以及越南推动南海问题多边化与外部化政策的影响下,东盟对南海问题的影响日趋增强,主要南海权益争端国家对中国的态度趋向强硬。南海问题的发展趋势表明,南海争端矛盾的尖锐化、问题解决机制的多边化、区域外强国介入的常态化已经成为中国和平维护南海权益不得不面对的国际环境。而美国与东盟提出的多边谈判和尽早协商通过《南海地区行为准则》的建议短期内无益于问题的解决。从容易解决的争端下手,通过双边谈判首先解决某些具体争端,逐渐消解南海问题的复杂性是中国应对当前南海问题复杂国际因素、和平维护南海权益的必要之举。     

Great Power War: Historical Inevitability or Deterrable Choice?

Proponents of a wide range of power transition theories suggest that conflict between the United States and China is inevitable. History indicates that is not true and conflict can be deterred. A key element to that deterrence is an effective Alliance strategy. While the Obama Administration has outlined an effective deterrent national strategy, it has not provided any military strategy. Some have proposed Air Sea Battle can be that strategy. For a variety of reasons, ASB will not work. This article proposes the Alliance adopt Offshore Control as a military strategy to deter China and assure allies and friends in the region. It is based on the concept of defending the first island chain, denying China use of the seas inside the first island chain and dominating the seas outside it. Its deterrent power is enhanced because Offshore Control is affordable, politically feasible, and can be executed today.     

从越南第12次南海国际学术研讨会看南海问题与国际传播话语权的炒作

作为海洋战略实施的具体措施之一,十多年来越南外交研究机构持续主持召开关于南海(越南称"东海")的国际学术研讨会,已形成一种较为稳定的机制。第12次南海国际学术研讨会是在越南因应新冠肺炎疫情冲击、世界和南海地区形势发生重大变化的背景下召开的,呈现出了一些不同于以往各届会议的新特点。越南主流媒体对此次会议给予了较多关注和宣传报道,力图表现出研讨会的所谓"公正性""学术性""法理性"特点,反映出的意愿则是服务于攫取和扩展自身海洋权益的目的,并与美国关于南海问题的声明立场相呼应。举办方试图通过国际学术研讨会平台的形式,渲染南海复杂和严峻的形势,推卸在南海制造麻烦和分歧的责任,宣扬其南海政策主张,寻求影响和主导在南海问题上的国际传播话语权。维护南海的和平、合作与发展是南海区域国家和东盟的共同愿景,推动这一愿景的落实是各方的责任,越南需要拿出切实的诚意和实际行动,不能仅仅停留在口头上,其媒体也应该发挥出更多的建设性作用。     

The Philippines Discovers its Maritime Domain: The Aquino Administration’s Shift in Strategic Focus from Internal to Maritime Security

With China’s naval expansion in the South China Sea, the Philippine government has eased up its counter-insurgency/counter-terrorism campaign and has vigorously pursued instead the modernization of the Armed Forces of the Philippines (AFP) particularly in developing the deterrence capability of the Philippine Navy (PN). However, slow-paced and hampered by scant resources, the naval build-up will hardly deter China’s encroachment on the Philippine maritime territory. Faced with this predicament, the Philippines has resorted to forging new security partnerships with the United States and Japan, two major naval powers in East Asia. The paper concludes that maritime security will remain the Philippines’ priority concern way into the third decade of the 21st century.     

调整与延续:杜特尔特政府的对华政策

2016年杜特尔特总统执政以来,菲律宾政府调整了对华政策,在南海问题上采取主动降温的方式,加强了与中国的政治沟通和经济合作,放弃了"联美制华"政策,转而奉行"大国平衡"政策。这种调整使得中菲关系得以平稳有序的发展。不过,杜特尔特总统仍然继承和延续了菲律宾的一些传统政策,主要表现在南海问题上坚持领土要求,坚持南海仲裁案的结果,以及对美国的防务依赖性。     

FANTASY OR FICTION: MARCHING OF THE DRAGON IN THE SOUTH CHINA SEA

This article looks at the South China Sea dispute and its impact in international relations. It analyses why the Southeast Asian states are highly sovereignty sensitive, and how such sensitivity has made non-intervention the bedrock of managing their foreign policies. China has long viewed the near seas as regions of geostrategic interest, and thus the SCS is not an exception. On the one hand it brings hope and prosperity, and on the other uncertainty and threat. At the end, the article argues whether China’s assertive position regarding other countries’ sovereignty claims in the Arctic might undermine its own position in contested areas like the SCS, and suggests that China will at least have to learn how to share and bear (term coined by the author) as a member of the international community.     

ASEAN AND CHINA IN THE SOUTH CHINA SEA DISPUTES

The South China Sea disputes involve both island and maritime claims among sovereign states and the issue has long been a point of debate in international politics. It involves not only the countries in dispute but also other major world powers, including the United States. Its important strategic location and the abundant resources make the South China Sea a target of contention among the claimant countries. The arbitral ruling in July 2016 gives a new momentum to the dispute. The article examines the strategic relations of China and the Association of Southeast Asian Nations (ASEAN) by analyzing the positions and steps taken by ASEAN and China, as well as ASEAN-China joint initiatives. It also discusses the challenges and viable solutions to the dispute.     

国际海盗问题与中国海上通道安全

作为世界贸易大国和能源进口大国,中国的发展越来越依赖于海外,海上通道安全对保障中国国家安全的重要性日益凸显。海盗作为一种国际犯罪行为,严重影响国际海上航运安全,也对中国海上战略通道安全构成现实威胁。海盗治理成为关系到中国海上通道安全的重大问题,必须采取积极有效措施加以解决。为此,我们必须进一步完善国内反海盗立法和反海盗机制;充分发挥联合国的作用,建立打击海盗、维护海上通道安全的长效机制;积极推动反海盗的国际和地区合作;增强防御海盗的力量和意识,重视远洋海军建设;坚持标本兼治,积极推进海盗所属国或地区的和平、发展和稳定。     

冷战初期日本南海政策及东南亚战略取向

冷战使日本在美国的全球战略中作用提升,成为反共"防波堤",其具有政治目的性的东南亚"经济外交"呈现出明显的海洋战略取向,且影响至今。因地缘利益、东南亚战略,日本南海政策的基本出发点自冷战开始后始终没变,即追随美国遏制中国政策,对南海诸岛归属问题上采取模糊态度和立场,这为后来南海周边某些国家侵占南海岛礁留下所谓借口。此时日本还曾插足于南海诸岛,由于海峡两岸对南海权益的维护使其非法行为无法为继,但随着经济的发展,日本越来越依赖南海航道和加大南海石油资源的开发,这决定其"关心"南海问题就是势所必然了。     

China's Advances in the South China Sea: Strategies and Objectives

The sea lanes of the South China Sea are vital not only as a trade route but also for strategic security. It is self-evident that this should be so for the East Asian countries who lay claim to the area, but it is also true for those nations further afield who are affected by the activities there, such as Japan, Korea and the US. Based on his observations of the Chinese navy'sactivities in the South China Sea over the last ten years, Shigeo Hiramatsu, Professor of Social Sciences at Kyorin University, examines the history of the Chinese Navy within the context of East Asian security in the following article. He argues that in light of Chinese plans to increase the capability of its navy, a strong US-Japan relationship as well as a more active Japanese role in the region is essential to prevent a possible flare up of skirmishes around the South China Sea.     

India and Australia: Security Dynamics in the Asia Pacific

India and Australia are rediscovering the vast potentials of maximizing mutual benefits that are inherent in their complementary economies. There is also a great deal of convergence of interests in the strategic domain. As an emerging power, India's profile has attracted attention by countries in the Asia Pacific region, which tended to neglect it in the past. The rise of China and its assertive stances have created an element of uneasiness in the region. Its military modernization and beefing up of naval capability are suspected to be behind enhancing its power projection capability.

The strategic significance of the Indian Ocean for the region is huge. The region's growth is inextricably linked to the Indian Ocean. The littoral states in the region are home to 2.6 billion people, almost 40% of the world's population. The Indian Ocean is the world's third largest body of water, and the world's leading energy and trade seaway. The volume of global trade brings with it the re-emerging problems of terrorism and piracy, a shared policing challenge for all littoral states. The security of the Indian Ocean goes to the heart of both India's and Australia's national interests.     

“21世纪海上丝绸之路”背景下的南海周边国家应对气候变化合作探讨

气候变化及其一系列影响使得南海周边部分国家的海岸线倒退,岛礁面临被淹没的威胁,这将会使沿海国的领海、毗连区、专属经济区等海域的范围改变。南海海域已存在海洋权益矛盾和海权争端,加之气候变化这一变量因素,局势将会更为复杂与严峻。“21世纪海上丝绸之路”建设是我国与南海周边国家建立共同发展战略的新举措,在这一新形势下,我国应加强与南海周边国家合作应对气候变化,逐步实现共赢。本文将阐述气候变化对南海海域及周边国家的影响,梳理该区域国家应对气候变化的合作进程,分析目前存在的问题并提出相关建议。     

Power Politics Behind the Transforming Geopolitics in East Asia

Current geopolitical dynamics in East Asia is generated by the US rebalancing and China’s counterbalancing. The US rebalancing has so far ended in an encircling of China, whereas China counteracts to extend into the seas and the lands as typified by the Belt and Road Initiative and assertive activities in the South China Sea. China under Xi Jinping’s leadership has set up a new guideline of ‘great power foreign policy’ (大国外交) to realize Xi Jinping’s ambitious vision of ‘China dream’. As delivered in the ‘New Model of Great Power Relations’, China under Xi Jinping’s leadership seeks clearly for ‘regional dominance’, while for ‘global balance’ with the USA. With rebalancing, however, the USA seeks to restore power balance in East Asia by adding up to military and economic resources already deployed there. By doing so, the USA aims to achieve its strategic goal of ‘regional balance’, while maintaining ‘global dominance’. These two distinct strategic goals, regional dominance and global balance for China and regional balance and global dominance for the USA, interact to result in currently transforming geopolitics in East Asia.     

从《东南亚集体防务条约》看美国的南中国海政策

1954年以美国为首签署的<东南亚集体防务条约>正式把南中国海纳入美国的防御圈内;此前,南中国海位于美国在西太平洋的防线之外.之后,该条约多次被试图援引,用以对付所谓的"共产主义",实指中国在南中国海的活动.纵观20世纪50、60年代,在遏制共产主义的战略下,美国不仅试图否认中国对南中国海岛礁的主权,还坚决反对中国在南中国海采取任何行动,但放任台湾当局、菲律宾和南越等冷战盟友在南中国海的活动.