东亚国际社会建构与中国外交战略选择——以英国学派国际社会理论为视角

以中国为中心的传统东亚国际社会解体以来,东亚地区并未完成具有主体性意义的现代东亚国际社会建构。地区性国际机制繁多却缺乏整合,虽在功能性机制建设方面取得了一定成就,但在共同意识建设方面却无明显进展。此外,各方对于建构过程中的主导权问题也存在争议。然而东亚国际社会的形成有助于维持地区稳定与促进区域内合作,推动东亚国际社会建构符合中国的国家利益,中国有必要基于地区共同利益从功能与意识层面开展外交活动。     

Realism, Rationalism, Race: On the Early International Relations Discipline in Australia

The received view of the development of the international relations discipline in Australia discounts its early history, maintaining that it only came into existence in the 1960s. It was then confined, according to this account, within a realist-rationalist discourse. This article shows that if realism-rationalism is the identifying feature of the discipline in Australia, then many exemplars can be found in the earlier period from the 1920s to the Pacific War. Problems regarding empire, obligations towards the League of Nations, and Australia's position in the Pacific region were major concerns. Arguments in support of the League, or for an emerging Pacific order, were often couched in rationalist terms; with the increasing international uncertainty of the 1930s, realist arguments became more prominent. There are also some examples of revolutionist theory. However, a major preoccupation across the spectrum of international thinkers was the issue of race and the exclusionary White Australia immigration policy. It is argued that this theme cannot be readily assimilated to realism-rationalism.     

Prospect Theory, Rational Choice, and International Relations

A half-decade after the first systematic applications of prospect theory to international relations, scholars continue to debate its potential utility as a theoretical framework. Key questions include the validity of the experimental findings themselves, their relevance for real-world international behavior that involves high-stakes decisions by collective actors in interactive settings, and the conceptual status of prospect theory with respect to rational choice. In this essay I assess theoretical and methodological debates over these issues. I review work in social psychology and experimental economics and conclude that challenges to the external validity of prospect theory-based hypotheses for international behavior are much more serious than challenges to their internal validity. I emphasize the similarities between prospect theory and expected-utility theory, argue that hypotheses regarding loss aversion and the reflection effect are easily subsumed within the latter, and that evidence of framing effects and nonlinear responses to probabilities are more problematic for the theory. I conclude that priorities for future research include the construction of hypotheses on the framing of foreign policy decisions and research designs for testing them; the incorporation of framing, loss aversion, and the reflection effect into theories of collective and interactive decision making; and experimental research that is sensitive to the political and strategic context of foreign policy decision making.     

以世界体系理论与全球化理论解读国际体系转型

参照沃勒斯坦三种优势的观点,霸权国家优势的全面转移和重新聚集可被视为国际体系转型的经济标志,也可能是今后国际体系和平转型的标尺之一.目前美国仍然是处于中心区的唯一超级大国,三种优势总体上继续存在,但均有不同程度的削弱.霸权国家当前在经济上已经是一个多国融合体,中心与半边缘国家在经济上的分工已经高度结构化.与过去经济与地域分割的时代不同,今后不太可能再让一个国家独享所有的优势,全球化理论对冷战后、特别是"9·11"后的国际体系转型具有较典型的解释意义,因为全球性形成的挑战、危机和危险一定程度上已经超越了传统的国家间的安全威胁与地缘竞争战略的重要性.     

International Relations Theory and the Second Korean War

Ever since the first Korean war in 1950, scholars and policymakers have been predicting a second one, started by an invasion from the North. Whether seen as arising from preventive, preemptive, desperation, or simple aggressive motivations, the predominant perspective in the west sees North Korea as likely to instigate conflict. Yet for fifty years North Korea has not come close to starting a war. Why were so many scholars so consistently wrong about North Korea's intentions? Social scientists can learn as much from events that did not happen as from those that did. The case of North Korea provides a window with which to examine these theories of conflict initiation, and reveals how the assumptions underlying these theories can become mis-specified. Either scholars misunderstood the initial conditions, or they misunderstood the theory, and I show that scholars have made mistakes in both areas. Social science moves forward from clear statement of a theory, its causal logic, and its predictions. However, just as important is the rigorous assessment of a theory, especially if the predictions fail to materialize. North Korea never had the material capabilities to be a serious contender to the U.S.–ROK alliance, and it quickly fell further behind. The real question has not been whether North Korea would preempt as South Korea caught up, but instead why North Korea might fight as it fell further and further behind. The explanation for a half-century of stability and peace on the Korean peninsula is actually quite simple: deterrence works.     

Foreign Policy Analysis: Actor-Specific Theory and the Ground of International Relations

Examining the history, conceptual breadth, and recent trends in the study of foreign policy analysis, it is clear that this subfield provides what may be the best conceptual connection to the empirical ground upon which all international relations (IR) theory is based. Foreign policy analysis is characterized by an actor-specific focus, based upon the argument that all that occurs between nations and across nations is grounded in human decision makers acting singly or in groups. FPA offers significant contributions to IR—theoretical, substantive, and methodological—and is situated at the intersection of all social science and policy fields as they relate to international affairs. A renewed emphasis on actor-specific theory will allow IR to more fully reclaim its ability to manifest human agency, with its attendant change, creativity, accountability, and meaning.     

超越两分法:女性主义国际关系理论的前途

女性主义国际关系理论为国际关系学的发展做出了重大贡献。遗憾的是,近二十年的发展依然没有使其摆脱国际关系学边缘的地位。本文从两分法的批判出发,探讨女性主义兴起的根源,由此阐述女性主义国际关系理论的议程、困境和重构之路。本文认为,女性主义者与传统理论学者之间不正常的争论及女性主义理论在经验论、立场论和方法论上的悖论是女性主义国际关系理论长期处于边缘的两大原因。女性主义者未能超越两分法逻辑,不得不寻求理论的重构之路。     

General Deterrence and International Conflict: Testing Perfect Deterrence Theory

Since general deterrence necessarily precedes immediate deterrence, the analysis of general deterrence is more fundamental to an understanding of international conflict than is an analysis of immediate deterrence. Nonetheless, despite a few exceptions, the quantitative literature has ignored the subject of general deterrence, focusing almost exclusively on situations of immediate deterrence. My purpose in this essay is to fill this evidentiary gap by subjecting a recently developed theory of general deterrence—Perfect Deterrence Theory—to a systematic test by examining general deterrence from 1816–2000. The results indicate that the predictions of perfect deterrence theory are strongly supported by the empirical record.     

International Relations Theory and Minimum Deterrence

ABSTRACT

India’s government under Narendra Modi represents a return to single party rule. This paper investigates whether and why single party governments in India differ in their extremity of foreign policies from coalition governments. It particularly focuses on how different forms of government influence the saliency, contestation, and enactment of national conceptions about India’s global role. First, I situate India within the academic debate regarding coalitional governments and foreign policy. I suggest that one reason why India challenges scholars‘ assumption is the missing link between partisan conceptions of India’s global role and their institutional representation. Second, I propose a role theoretical approach and argue that the process of self-identification, consisting of ego and anticipated alter expectations, conditions a state’s role set and extreme foreign policy. It is hypothesized that the nature of contestation of national role conceptions varies between factions and fractions because of the nature of India’s party system, as well as the relative significance of external others for India’s identity. Third, I examine instances of role-taking in the field of nuclearization and Sino-Indian relations. Findings suggest that contested role conceptions during single-party rule caused more extreme variances in international role-taking, while coalition governments proved to induce more complementary role-taking processes.     

英国学派多元主义与社会连带主义论争——一种比较视角

在国际关系理论的英国学派中,存在着两种主要的概念和研究方法取向,即多元主义与社会连带主义.本文主要探讨两者的异同及其本质.它们的共同点在于,以马丁·怀特的三大思想传统作为自己的理论立场,坚持理性主义的国际社会观、关怀人权等道德价值.然而,它们之间也有很大分歧,主要是两者对国际社会赖以存在的基础--国际法有不同认知,即国际社会是以自然法还是实在法为基础;在人权以及与其有着密切关联的人道主义干涉和西方对第三世界的责任问题上,看法也大相径庭.多元--连带之争实质上探讨的是国际社会的本质、潜能和规模,以及国际社会成员对于规则、规范、价值、制度的分享程度.双方的论争不仅是国际关系理论一个新的理论增长点,而且加深了人们对于国际社会与世界社会的理解.     

Contingent Borders, Ambiguous Ethics: Migrants in (International) Political Theory

The article engages a critical analysis of liberal theory in the context of transnational migration. Normative arguments provided by liberal-cosmopolitan and liberal-communitarian authors are contrasted. While sympathetic to such approaches, we argue that traditional liberal theory has attempted to downplay the contingency and resultant ambiguity of many of its moral precepts. Historically contingent borders underpin neat universal categories like "citizen" and "refugee," which fail to reflect the diverse and contested experiences of migration. But such ambiguities need not undermine liberal approaches. Indeed, a proper engagement with the problematic and uncertain realities of migration can provide a spur to a more thoroughgoing ethical praxis. We draw on the philosophical pragmatism of Richard Rorty to outline an approach to migration that remains open to the contingent construction of terms like "migrant,""refugee," and "asylum-seeker." By extending Rorty's concept of sentimental education, we provide an imaginative and politically challenging set of agendas for the ethics of migration.     

"国际关系理论"辩识

对什么是"国际关系理论",人们存在着诸多争议,这些争议有些来源于对"国际关系"这一学科本身的定义,有些则来源于对什么是"理论"的分歧,本文拟从这两个方面着手,阐述对"国际关系理论"这一概念本身的看法.     

冷战后中国—东盟关系的英国学派分析

本文首先对英国学派的国际社会理论进行了梳理,详细分析了国际体系、国际社会和世界社会的关系,并用此分析冷战后的中国—东盟关系。本文认为中国—东盟之间还没有形成成熟的国际社会,主要依据有:两者缺乏共同的核心价值观,两者关系的机制化程度不高。所以,要改善中国与东盟的关系,至少做到:加强中国与东盟的跨文化交流,真正发挥双边国际制度的作用。     

地缘政治理论之借鉴：广西地缘优势与国际区域合作

要在竞争中取胜，需讲求天时、地利、人和。天时、地利、人和思想已得到世界各国的认同，其中“地利”思想更是被进一步发展，形成一套非常系统的理论，即地缘政治（geopolitics）理论。当今世界，任何国家和地区在制定发展战略时，都要将地缘政治因素纳入考虑范围。事实上，地缘政治理论包含非常丰富的思想，它不仅对国家宏观战略的制定具有重要意义，同时对地区局部发展也具有重要的参考价值。     

国际机制理论与上海合作组织

上海合作组织已经开始正常运转,但是它的理论基础并不为人所认同。国际机制理论只是为它提供了一个主要的理论框架。在实践过程中,上海合作组织在理论上仍然面临着许多新问题。弄清楚上海合作组织的理论内涵,正确对待上海合作组织发展过程中出现的新问题,是中国外交理论需要研究的新课题。