Comparing sex offender risk assessment measures on a UK sample

The purpose of this study on 139 sex offenders was to consider the application of six measures of risk: Static-99, SACJ-Min (Structured Anchored Clinical Judgment Scale-Minimum), RRASOR (Rapid Risk Assessment for Sexual Offence Recidivism), Risk Matrix 2000-Sexual/Violent, and SVR-20 (Sexual Violence Risk-20) and to compare risk assessments conducted by a Regional Secure Unit (RSU) and the Probation Service. Levels of risk for the RSU sample ranged from 1% to 42% low risk to 1% to 66% high risk compared with the Probation sample of 8% to 43% low risk to 4% to 70% high risk. Offenders with adult victims obtained significantly higher scores using the RM2000/S and SACJ-Min than did those with child victims who obtained significantly higher scores on the RRASOR. Sex offenders referred to a RSU scored significantly higher on RRASOR and RM2000/S than did sex offenders supervised by the Probation Service. Forensic practitioners may be better served if risk measures assess specific subcategories of sexual offenders.     

Static risk factors predict sexual misconduct among incarcerated female sexual offenders

Abstract

Although there has been a great deal of research conducted on sexual offenders in recent years, the vast majority of studies have focused on male perpetrators. Little is known about female sexual perpetrators, due primarily to the small number of offenders/offences and sociocultural factors. This study evaluated if there was an association between static risk factors [as delineated by the Static-99 and Rapid Risk Assessment for Sex Offender Recidivism (RRASOR)] and institutional sexual misconduct for incarcerated female sexual offenders. In addition to demographic information, total Static scores were obtained from a file review along with institutional conduct reports. The STATIC-99 and RRASOR scores from intake information significantly predicted sexual conduct reports in prison.     

Can we keep it simple? Using the BARR-2002R with a community-based sex offender sample

The Brief Assessment of Recidivism Risk (BARR-2002R) comprises of six items from the Static-2002R and has been designed for predicting general and violent recidivism among sexual offenders. The present study investigates the ability of the BARR-2002R, Static-2002R, Static-99R, and SORAG to predict general, violent, and sexual recidivism in a sample of 342 male sex offenders at a community-based forensic clinic. All four of the risk schemes demonstrated large effect sizes for predicting general, violent, and sexual recidivism, although the BARR-2002R produced a moderate effect size in its prediction of sexual reoffending. Unlike past research, the BARR-2002R did not outperform the other measures; however, our findings showed that the BARR-2002R adds incremental value to the Static-99R in predicting general and violent recidivism. These findings provide support that the BARR-2002R is a valid, abbreviated risk scheme that could be used in routine assessments of individuals convicted of sexual offending.     

Incarceration and Recidivism among Sexual Offenders

The relationship between incarceration and recidivism was investigated in a sample of 627 adult male sexual offenders. Incarceration for the index offense was unrelated to sexual or violent recidivism. This was the case whether incarceration was examined as a dichotomous variable (incarceration vs. community sentence) or as a continuous variable (length of incarceration). Risk for sexual recidivism was assessed with a modified version of the Rapid Risk Assessment for Sexual Offense Recidivism. There was no evidence that the relationship between incarceration and recidivism was confounded or moderated by risk or that length of incarceration and recidivism were non-linearly associated. Sentencing sexual offenders to terms of incarceration appears to have little, if any, impact on sexual and violent recidivism following release.     

Actuarial risk assessment and recidivism in a sample of UK intellectually disabled sexual offenders

Abstract

This study examines the effectiveness of three risk assessment instruments: Static-99, Risk Matrix 2000 (RM2000) and the Rapid Risk of Sex Offender Recidivism (RRASOR), in predicting sexual recidivism among 27 intellectually disabled sex offenders. The overall sexual offence reconviction rate was 30%, while non-recidivists remained offence-free over 76 months of follow-up. Static-99 presented as performing as well as guided clinical judgements in mainstream population studies [area under the curve (AUC)=0.64] exceeding the performance of RM2000 (AUC=0.58) in predicting sexual recidivism. However, the results were not statistically significant. In contrast to previous findings, the RRASOR presented the worst level of prediction (AUC=0.42). These results highlight the need to investigate further with larger sample sizes and in conjunction with more dynamic measures of risk. Proposed relevant factors are discussed in detail.     

Accuracy of the static-99 in predicting recidivism in Switzerland

The Static-99 is a widely used actuarial risk assessment instrument. Various international validation studies have found satisfactory to good predictive validity for the Static-99, with the area under the curve (AUC) between 59% and 95%. This study is the first evaluation of the predictive accuracy of the Static-99 among sex offenders in Switzerland. The Static-99 scores of 69 violent/sex offenders in Switzerland were assessed using data from their psychiatric assessments. Recidivism was operationalized as reconviction assessed from penal records. The Static-99 risk levels were predictive for recidivism (AUC = .758) among our population. The results are discussed on the basis of the literature.     

Predictive Validity of the SVR-20 and Static-99 in a Dutch Sample of Treated Sex Offenders

In this retrospective study, the interrater reliability and predictive validity of 2 risk assessment instruments for sexual violence are presented. The SVR-20, an instrument for structured professional judgment, and the Static-99, an actuarial risk assessment instrument, were coded from file information of 122 sex offenders who were admitted to a Dutch forensic psychiatric hospital between 1974 and 1996 (average follow-up period 140 months). Recidivism data (reconvictions) from the Ministry of Justice were related to the risk assessments. The base rate for sexual recidivism was 39%, for nonsexual violent offenses 46%, and for general offenses 74%. Predictive validity of the SVR-20 was good (total score: r = .50, AUC = .80; final risk judgment: r = .60, AUC = .83), of the Static-99 moderate (total score: r = .38, AUC =.71; risk category: r = .30, AUC = .66). The SVR-20 final risk judgment was a significantly better predictor of sexual recidivism than the Static-99 risk category.     

Cross-validation of the risk matrix 2000 sexual and violent scales

The predictive accuracy of the newly developed actuarial risk measures Risk Matrix 2000 Sexual/Violence (RMS, RMV) were cross validated and compared with two risk assessment measures (SVR-20 and Static-99) in a sample of sexual (n= 85) and nonsex violent (n= 46) offenders. The sexual offense reconviction rate for the sex offender group was 18% at 10 years follow-up, compared with 2% for the violent offenders. Survival analyses revealed the violent offenders were reconvicted at twice the rate compared to sexual offenders. The RMV significantly predicted violent recidivism in the sex and combined sex/violent offender groups. Although the RMS obtained marginal accuracy in predicting sexual reconviction in the sex offender group, none of the scales significantly predicted sexual reconviction. An item analysis revealed four factors not included in the risk scales that were significantly correlated with sexual and violent reconviction. Combining these factors with Static-99, RMV, and RMS increased the accuracy in predicting sexual reconviction.     

The Static-99R predicts sexual and violent recidivism for individuals with low intellectual functioning*

A current debate is whether actuarial risk assessment tools predict sexual recidivism in sexual offenders with intellectual disabilities (SOIDs). Since intellectual functioning exists on a spectrum, the present study examined the predictive validity of the Static-99R across the range of intellectual functioning. The sample was comprised of 454 adult sexual offenders assessed at an outpatient clinic and followed for an average of 10 years. Offenders in the extremely low/borderline group had higher scores on the Static-99R than other offenders, largely due to their score on the detachment subscale of the Static-99R, but did not have significantly higher recidivism rates. Calibration analyses suggested that the expected and observed recidivism rates did not differ significantly. Intellectual functioning did not add incremental validity to the Static-99R. Further, there was no interaction between intellectual functioning and actuarial risk score. The results suggested that the Static-99R can be used across the range of intellectual functioning, albeit somewhat more cautiously for those at the lowest and highest end of the intellectual functioning distribution.     

Predicting Recidivism Amongst Sexual Offenders: A Multi-site Study of Static-2002

The predictive accuracy of Static-2002 (Hanson & Thornton, Notes on the development of Static-2002 (Corrections Research User Report No. 2003-01), 2003) was examined in eight samples of sexual offenders (five Canadian, one U.S., one U.K., one Danish; total sample of 3,034). Static-2002 showed moderate ability to rank order the risk for sexual, violent and general (any) recidivism (AUCs of .68, .71, and .70, respectively), and was more accurate than Static-99. These findings support the use of Static-2002 in applied assessments. There were substantial differences across samples, however, in the observed sexual recidivism rates. These differences present new challenges to evaluators wishing to use actuarial risk scores to estimate absolute recidivism rates.     

Actuarial Assessment of Sex Offender Recidivism Risk: A Cross-Validation of the RRASOR and the Static-99 in Sweden

We cross-validated two actuarial risk assessment tools, the RRASOR (R. K. Hanson, 1997) and the Static-99 (R. K. Hanson & D. Thornton, 1999), in a retrospective follow-up (mean follow-up time = 3.69 years) of all sex offenders released from Swedish prisons during 1993–1997 (N = 1,400, all men, age 18 years). File-based data were collected by a researcher blind to the outcome (registered criminal recidivism), and individual risk factors as well as complete instrument characteristics were explored. Both the RRASOR and the Static-99 showed similar and moderate predictive accuracy for sexual reconvictions whereas the Static-99 exhibited a significantly higher accuracy for the prediction of any violent recidivism as compared to the RRASOR. Although particularly the Static-99 proved moderately robust as an actuarial measure of recidivism risk among sexual offenders in Sweden, both procedures may need further evaluation, for example, with sex offender subpopulations differing ethnically or with respect to offense characteristics. The usefulness of actuarial methods for the assessment of sex offender recidivism risk is discussed in the context of current practice.     

The significance of offending behavior for predicting sexual recidivism among sex offenders of various age groups

Based on a sample of 682 male sex offenders, this study investigated variables of the offending behavior for predicting sexual recidivism in different age groups. The sex offenders were allocated into four age groups. For each group, those characteristics of offending behavior showing a significant bivariate correlation with sexual recidivism were extracted. Using logistic regression, we then analyzed their incremental validity above and beyond a previously developed Crime Scene Behavior Risk (CBR)-Score, which measures the risk of sexual recidivism without taking into account the offenders' age (Dahle, Biedermann, Gallasch-Nemitz, & Janka, 2010). Age-specific offending behavior variables with incremental validity were combined with the general CBR-Score into age-specific scores and examined for their predictive accuracy. We also analyzed the extent in which these age-specific scores showed incremental validity above and beyond the Static-99 (Hanson & Thornton, 1999). For three of the four age groups, age-specific Crime Scene Behavior Risk-Scores could be determined which were incrementally valid above and beyond the Static-99. Predictive accuracy varied between AUC=.74 and AUC=.90 (r=.28 to r=.49) depending on age group. The results are discussed within context of recent findings on the latent dimensions of actuarial risk assessment variables.     

Application of operational psychology to assessment of inmates

Abstract

The newly developed actuarial risk instruments, Static-2002 (Hanson & Thornton, 2003a) and Risk Matrix 2000 (RM2000) (Thornton et al., 2003), were cross-validated and compared with Static-99 (Hanson & Thornton, 2000) in a retrospective follow-up study of 304 forensic psychiatrically evaluated sexual offenders (mean time-at-risk=14.8 years). All instruments predicted any sexual, non-sexual violent and any violent recidivism moderately for child molesters [area under the curve (AUC) of the receiver operating characteristic (ROC)=0.67 (95% CI=0.57–0.77) to 0.76 (95% CI=0.68–0.85)] but poorly for rapists [AUCs=0.64 (95% CI=0.51–0.70) to 0.68 (95% CI=0.59–0.77)]. The instruments also predicted severe sexual recidivism moderately for child molesters [AUCs=0.74 (95% CI=0.63–0.86) to 0.79 (95% CI=0.70–0.89)] but were of no value in informing on this outcome for rapists [AUCs=0.58 (95% CI=0.47–0.68) to 0.63 (95% CI=0.53–0.73)]. AUC estimates were generally higher for Static-2002 and RM2000 than for Static-99, but no single instrument demonstrated statistical superiority. The study provides support for implementing actuarial instruments in applied risk assessments of child molesters.     

Risk assessment in offenders with intellectual disability: a comparison across three levels of security

In mainstream offender samples, several risk assessments have been evaluated for predictive validity. This study extends this work to male offenders with intellectual disabilities. Participants from high-, medium-, and low-security settings, as well as community settings, were compared on a range of risk assessments. The Violence Risk Appraisal Guide, HCR-20-Historical Scale, the Risk Matrix 2000-C (combined risk), and the Emotional Problems Scales-Internalising discriminated between groups, with participants from high security having higher scores than those in medium security, who had higher scores than those in the community. The Violence Risk Appraisal Guide, all HCR-20 scales, the Short Dynamic Risk Scale, and the Emotional Problems Scales (Internalising and Externalising) showed significant areas under the curve for the prediction of violence. The Static-99 showed a significant area under the curve for the prediction of sexual incidents. The discussion reviews the value of these various scales to intellectual disability services.     

Some notes on the validation of VRS-SO static scores

ABSTRACT

The present study was a psychometric examination of Violence Risk Scale-Sexual Offender version (VRS-SO; Wong, S., Olver, M. E., Nicholaichuk, T. P., & Gordon, A. (2003 Wong, S., Olver, M. E., Nicholaichuk, T. P., & Gordon, A. (2003). The violence risk scale: Sexual offender version (VRS-SO). Saskatoon: Regional Psychiatric Centre and University of Saskatchewan. [Google Scholar]). The violence risk scale: Sexual offender version (VRS-SO). Saskatoon: Regional Psychiatric Centre and University of Saskatchewan) static item scores in a Canadian multisite sample of 668 treated adult male sexual offenders. Exploratory factor analysis (EFA) of 13 nonredundant Static-99R and VRS-SO static items generated three factors labelled Youthful Aggression, Sexual Criminality, and General Criminality. The factor and total scores converged with Static-99R and VRS-SO dynamic factor scores. Scores on the VRS-SO static items, EFA-derived factors, and total score each significantly predicted 5- and 10-year sexual, violent, and general recidivism through ROC analyses. Cox regression survival analyses showed all three factors uniquely predicted sexual recidivism to varying degrees in the overall sample; however, only Youthful Aggression and General Criminality uniquely significantly predicted violent and general recidivism in the overall sample and among sexual offender subgroups. Implications for theory, clinical practice, and instrument refinement are discussed.     

Sex Offenders of East Asian Heritage Resemble Other Canadian Sex Offenders

Although there is considerable research on Caucasian sexual offenders, there has been much less research on sex offenders of Asian heritage. The current study compared East Asian (e.g., Chinese, Japanese, and Korean) sex offenders in British Columbia (B.C.), Canada, and other B.C. sex offenders on items and total score of Static-99R. This study included all provincially sentenced adult male sexual offenders (n = 4580) supervised in the community by B. C. Corrections (including 122 East Asian sex offenders). Sexual, violent, any crime, and any recidivism (including technical violations) data were collected with an average follow-up 4.3 years. The total scores of Static-99R were similar between East Asian sex offenders and other ethnic groups (M = 2.0 vs. M = 2.4). East Asian offenders scored significantly lower than other ethnic offenders on several items measuring general criminality (e.g., prior non-sexual violence, prior sentencing dates, and any prior sex offenses). In contrast, Asian offenders appeared to be more paraphilic (e.g., any convictions for non-contact sex offenses). Lastly, Static-99R significantly predicts sexual, violent, and criminal among sex offenders of East Asian heritage.     

Sexual offenders in preventive detention: data concerning the inmates and expert witness practice

In the last decade, preventive detention-especially that relating to sexual offenders- has gained relevance for the German legal system. However, data are lacking concerning the inmates and the modus operandi of the psychiatric experts. Court orders and psychiatric statements of 114 offenders with orders of preventive detention were examined, 57 of whom were incarcerated because of sexual offences. Sexual offenders mostly show antisocial personality traits or even disorders, with a history of poly-trophic delinquency. In only four cases, the diagnosis of a sexual disorder was given. The analysis showed a high rate of psychiatric expert testimonies' lacking basic information, with incomplete assessment of sexual history. None of the experts used standardized prognostic instruments, meaning that most of the risk factors included in the Sexual Violence Risk-20 and the Static-99 were not considered. Further work needs to be done to improve the quality of psychiatric statements concerning sexual offenders.     

Sexual and violent recidivism by offender type and actuarial risk: reoffending rates for rapists,child molesters and mixed-victim offenders

Abstract

The current study examines sexual and violent reoffence rates for a sample of 2474 sexual offenders over an average of 15 years following release from prison. Reoffence rates are reported as a function of the offenders' victim type and level of risk as assessed by the Automated Sexual Recidivism Scale, a computer scored measure of relevant historical risk factors. Observed sexual recidivism rates for offenders with child victims, adult victims, and mixed victims were quite similar. Results indicate that offenders with exclusively female child victims not only showed a lower rate of sexual reoffending, but that the reoffence rates were relatively low across all levels of actuarial risk. In contrast, those with male child victims and adult victims showed a pronounced escalation of reoffence rates as actuarial risk increased. Results also indicated that adult victim offenders are less consistent in the victim type of their reoffences, with 37% sexually reoffending against child victims. Finally, combined rates of sexual and violent reoffending were particularly high for those with adult victim sexual offence histories. Risk assessment and public policy implications are discussed.     

Underreporting of Bestiality Among Juvenile Sex Offenders: Polygraph Versus Self‐Report

Juvenile sex offenders (JSO) are a specific subset of delinquent adolescents that are receiving more attention because of the crimes they commit and the issues surrounding how to successfully treat their deviant behaviors. Given JSO are such predominant treatment concerns in society, it is essential to identify and target key risk factors. One sexual behavior, bestiality, may be of particular importance to address in treatment. In a meta‐analysis conducted by Seto and Lalumiere, a 14% rate of bestiality among JSO was reported. This current study examined the differences in JSO (n = 32) who admitted bestiality based upon a self‐report measure, the Multiphasic Sexual Inventory‐II (MSI‐II), compared to information elicited by polygraphs. The results indicated extensive underreporting of bestiality behaviors between these two sources of information (MSI‐II = 37.5%; polygraph = 81.25%). These findings are important given the reliance treatment programs place on information elicited from self‐report tools.     

Improving Risk Assessments for Sex Offenders: A Comparison of Three Actuarial Scales

The study compared the predictive accuracy of three sex offender risk-assessment measures: the RRASOR (Hanson, 1997), Thornton's SACJ-Min (Grubin, 1998), and a new scale, Static-99, created by combining the items from the RRASOR and SACJ-Min. Predictive accuracy was tested using four diverse datasets drawn from Canada and the United Kingdom (total n = 1301). The RRASOR and the SACJ-Min showed roughly equivalent predictive accuracy, and the combination of the two scales was more accurate than either original scale. Static-99 showed moderate predictive accuracy for both sexual recidivism (r = 0.33, ROC area = 0.71) and violent (including sexual) recidivism (r = 0.32, ROC area = 0.69). The variation in the predictive accuracy of Static-99 across the four samples was no more than would be expected by chance.