The relationship between aggressive behaviour in prison and violent offending following release

Aggression during incarceration impacts on parole release decisions. However, research examining the link between aggressive behaviour in custody and violence post-release is limited, particularly in relation to adult violent offenders. Several factors complicate the use of institutional aggression as a marker of risk for future violence, including environmental causes of aggressive behaviour and adaptation to prison. This study explored the association between aggressive behaviour in prison and violent recidivism post-release in a sample of 148 adult male violent offenders. Prisoners with three or more aggressive incidents recorded in prison incurred a violent charge more often and sooner after release than those with no aggressive incidents, when controlling for age, ethnicity, length of incarceration and risk for future violence. Subjects with one or two aggressive incidents were not at increased risk of violent recidivism. These findings suggest that institutional aggression can be used to identify individuals at risk of violence following release but only when repeated aggressive behaviour is evident. Importantly, some prisoners who were not aggressive in prison were charged with violent offences post-release and some prisoners with three or more aggressive incidents were not violent following release, highlighting the complexity of using in-prison aggression as a marker for violent recidivism.     

Applying a forensic actuarial assessment (the Violence Risk Appraisal Guide) to nonforensic patients

The actuarial Violence Risk Appraisal Guide (VRAG) was developed for male offenders where it has shown excellent replicability in many new forensic samples using officially recorded outcomes. Clinicians also make decisions, however, about the risk of interpersonal violence posed by nonforensic psychiatric patients of both sexes. Could an actuarial risk assessment developed for male forensic populations be used for a broader clientele? We modified the VRAG to permit evaluation using data from the MacArthur Violence Risk Assessment Study that included nonforensic male and female patients and primarily self-reported violence. The modified VRAG yielded a large effect size in the prediction of dichotomous postdischarge severe violence over 20 and 50 weeks. Accuracy of VRAG predictions was unrelated to sex. The results provide evidence about the robustness of comprehensive actuarial risk assessments and the generality of the personal factors that underlie violent behavior.     

Violence risk profile of medium- and high-security NGRI offenders in Belgium

Under Belgian law, offenders not guilty by reason of insanity (NGRI) are committed by the courts to forensic mental health treatment. The use of violence risk assessment tools has become routine in these settings. However, there are no national statistics regarding violence risk assessment in the Belgian forensic population. A study was undertaken to collect risk assessment data (PCL-R, VRAG, HCR-20) on a large cohort of forensic patients committed to Medium Security units in the Flanders region and in High-Security units in the Walloon region. Flemish patients were expected to present a lower risk compared with their Walloon counterparts. Instead, data yielded by a structured risk assessment method demonstrate the opposite. Moreover, the majority of patients in Flemish facilities had committed violent offenses and were institutionalized for shorter periods whereas the majority of Walloon patients had committed sexual offenses and were institutionalized for markedly longer periods.     

Cross-Validation and Extension of the Violence Risk Appraisal Guide for Child Molesters and Rapists

A cross-validation of the Violence Risk Appraisal Guide was performed on a sample of 159 child molesters and rapists followed for an average of 10 years at risk The performance of the instrument was also examined on a 10-yr followup of 288 sex offenders that included both those in the original construction sample for the VRAG and the validation sample. The instrument performed as well as it had in construction for predicting violent recidivism in both the cross-validation and extended followup samples, and moderately well in the prediction of sexual recidivism. Survival analyses showed that child molesters exhibited higher risk of sexual recidivism than rapists or offenders against both children and adults, whereas the opposite was true for violent recidivism. As predicted, psychopathy and phallometrically determined sexual deviance exhibited a multiplicative interaction effect on sexual recidivism. Proportional hazards event history analyses supported the use of the VRAG for the prediction of violent recidivism among sex offenders.     

Prediction of violent and sexual offences: A replication study of the VRAG in Switzerland

Abstract

The Violence Risk Appraisal Guide (VRAG) is a widely used actuarial risk assessment instrument and has been validated in different countries. However, there is no investigation supporting the predictive accuracy of the VRAG in the German language area. The VRAG scores of 79 violent and sexual offenders in Switzerland were assessed based on data from their psychiatric expert opinions. The VRAG scores were compared to subsequent recidivism as shown in the official criminal records. Consistent with past research in the English language area, the VRAG yielded a satisfying predictive accuracy (ROC area = .73), demonstrating its usefulness for risk assessment of violent delinquency in the Swiss cultural and German language area.     

Prospective Replication of the Violence Risk Appraisal Guide in Predicting Violent Recidivism Among Forensic Patients

An exhaustive survey of a cohort of forensic patients provided an opportunity for a prospective replication of the predictive accuracy of the Violence Risk Appraisal Guide (VRAG). Data collected during the original survey also permitted a test of the predictive accuracy of clinical assessments of risk on the same cohort. The VRAG yielded a large effect size in predicting violent recidivism (ROC area = .80) over a constant 5-year follow-up and performed significantly better than averaged clinical opinions. The superiority of the VRAG was also observed at very short follow-up times and for very serious violence. Moreover, for 16 subsamples, observed rates of violent recidivism did not differ significantly from the expected rates. VRAG score was unrelated, and clinical judgments inversely related to violent recidivism in the small low-risk sample of female forensic patients. The authors conclude that, regardless of length of opportunity or severity of outcome, actuarial methods are more accurate than is clinical judgment.     

Validity and reliability of the VRAG in a forensic psychiatric medium security population in Flanders

Since the development of the Violence Risk Appraisal Guide (VRAG), one of the most widely used actuarial risk assessment instruments, numerous replication studies have shown its usefulness in predicting (violent) recidivism among various offender populations. It is not clear, however, whether these findings can be generalized to forensic psychiatric patients admitted to a medium security forensic psychiatric unit in the Flemish part of Belgium. Therefore, the main aim of this study was to test the predictive validity and reliability of the VRAG in a sample of 191 Flemish medium security patients. The mean follow-up period was 2.4 years. Contrary to the expectations, the VRAG was unable to significantly predict any kind of outcome. Possible explanations are discussed and further research with the VRAG in Flanders, and its recently revised version, is recommended.     

Identifying Three Types of Violent Offenders and Predicting Violent Recidivism While on Probation: A Classification Tree Analysis

This study employs classification tree analysis (CTA) to address whether 3 groups of violent offenders have similar or different risk factors for violent recidivism while on probation. A sample of 1344 violent offenders on probation was classified as generalized aggressors (N = 302), family only aggressors (N = 321), or nonfamily only aggressors (N = 717). The strongest predictor of violent recidivism while on probation was whether the offender was a generalized aggressor or not, with generalized aggressors more likely to be arrested for new violent crimes. Prior arrests for violent crimes predicted violent recidivism of generalized aggressors, but did not significantly predict violent recidivism of family only and nonfamily only aggressors. For generalized aggressors and family only batterers, treatment noncompliance was an important risk predictor of violent recidivism. CTA compared to logistic regression classified a higher percentage of cases into low-risk and high-risk groups, provided higher improvement in classification accuracy of violent recidivists beyond chance performance, and provided a better balance of false positives and false negatives. The implications for the risk assessment and domestic violence literature are discussed.     

VARIETIES OF VIOLENT BEHAVIOR

There is an implicit assumption of homogeneity across violent behaviors and offenders in the criminology literature. Arguing against this assumption, I draw on three distinct literatures [child abuse and neglect (CAN) and violence, violence and post‐traumatic stress disorder (PTSD), and CAN and PTSD] to provide a rationale for an examination of varieties of violent behaviors. I use data from my prospective cohort design study of the long‐term consequences of CAN to define three varieties of violent offenders using age of documented cases of CAN, onset of PTSD, and first violent arrest in a temporally correct manner [CAN → to violence, CAN → PTSD → violence (PTSD first), and CAN → violence → PTSD (violence first)], and a fourth variety, violence only. The results illustrate meaningful heterogeneity in violent behavior and different developmental patterns and characteristics. There are three major implications: First, programs and policies that target violence need to recognize the heterogeneity and move away from a “one‐size‐fits‐all” approach. Second, violence prevention policies and programs that target abused and neglected children are warranted, given the prominent role of CAN in the backgrounds of these violent offenders. Third, criminologists and others interested in violence need to attend to the role of PTSD, which is present in about one fifth (21 percent) of these violent offenders, and not relegate the study of these offenders to the psychiatric and psychological literatures.     

The violence relapse process – a qualitative analysis of high-risk situations and risk communication in mentally disordered offenders

Abstract

Approximately 45% of mentally disordered offenders relapse into violence. Although much is known about factors related to the risk of future violence, the violence relapse process is still in many aspects an unexplored area. The aim of this study was to increase the knowledge of the recidivism process and risk communication of the repeatingly violent mentally disordered offender. A qualitative study using open-ended, semi-structured interviews was conducted with 14 mentally disordered offenders who had relapsed into violent behaviour. Important risk markers, pointed out by the informants, such as separations, drug problems, homelessness, and lack of sleep, were presented in a situational context. All but one of the informants were of the opinion that they directly or indirectly had communicated their violent intent or the experience of an intolerable situation. These results may help practitioners to target interventions and prevent further violence.     

A Comparative Test of Clinical Judgment Versus Actuarial Prediction of Future Violence

This study tested how graduate level psychology graduate students (n = 20) using the Adapted Violence Risk Appraisal Guide (Adapted VRAG) would do relative to practicing psychologists/psychiatrists (n = 16) using clinical judgment when predicting violence in 10 narratives from the MacArthur Violence Risk Assessment study (Monahan et al., The MacArthur violence risk assessment study. . Retrieved 10 Oct 2005). Results indicated that the practicing psychologists/psychiatrists made significantly more correct predictions than the master’s level students. The professional group demonstrated sensitivity levels of 77.7% and specificity of 96.3%. For the use of the adapted VRAG method by the graduate student group, specificity levels were modest at 54.0%. Sensitivity levels, however, were lower than earlier demonstrated levels at 58.0%. These findings are at variance with earlier reports comparing clinical and actuarial methods. The results may reflect the short amount of time the master’s level students were trained using the Adapted VRAG as well as the small number of participants in this study. Additional research comparing other professions is recommended, as well as examining if experience in the forensics field would affect one’s ability to predict violence.     

Violent crimes in native and foreign national offenders

Although the foreign national population in Spanish prisons has doubled during the past decade from 22% to 44%, few studies have investigated the contribution of foreign nationals to criminality and their risk profiles compared to natives. The present paper compared rates of violent conviction in 917 native and 657 foreign national male offenders, and explored differences in risk factors for violence between groups using logistic regression, receiver operating characteristic (ROC) curve analysis, and positive and negative predictive values (PPV and NPV, respectively). Natives and foreign nationals showed no significant differences in the rate of violent conviction (19.6% vs. 17.2%, respectively). However, when multivariate models were developed to predict violence in the samples using logistic regression, between-group differences in the risk profiles of violent and non-violent offenders were found. Implications of the findings for research, public policy and risk management were explored.     

“Nerve” and violent encounters: An assessment of fearlessness in the face of danger

The findings from a large body of research on the ecology of violence indicate that individuals demonstrate a willingness to engage in violence to reduce their risk for violent victimization. Scholars have suggested that a reputation for toughness and aggression acts as an informal signal that deters mistreatment. Anderson (1999), in his street code thesis, in particular, argued that adherence to the street code functions as a signal that reduces violent victimization risk. Other research findings, however, reveal that the street code leads to an increase in victimization risk; moreover, violent offenders are routinely victimized at high rates given their lifestyle and routine activities. The evidence, therefore, does not show support for the position that a reputation for toughness or aggression effectively reduces violent victimization. In the current study, we operationalize the concept of nerve, which findings from criminological studies indicate is an important mechanism for protecting adolescents from victimization. Using data from the second national evaluation of the Gang Resistance Education and Training Program, we test this operationalization of nerve to determine whether the concept is associated with later violent offending and violent victimization in ways consistent with theory and research on the ecology of youth violence. Our results demonstrate support for the notion that nerve is positively associated with violent offending, whereas those at the highest levels of this construct experience fewer violent victimizations.     

Violent Crime in the Urban Community: A Comparison of Stockholm and Basel

In this article the authors present some preliminary findings from a comparative study of police recorded violent crimes in Stockholm and Basel. They present the first results from a comparative analysis of the situational context, the ecology of crime, and of offender residences in these cities. There is impressive evidence of basic similarities in the situational context of violent crime and the residential distribution of violent offenders. Yet there are also significant differences, some of which may have interesting implications for crime prevention. Firstly, violent crime seems to be more highly concentrated during weekend nights in Stockholm than in Basel. Secondly, they find evidence that the presence of weapons in a community increases the risk of more serious outcomes of violent events. Efforts to reduce the availability of weapons may thus have significant effects on the outcomes of violence, but not necessarily on its frequency. Thirdly, they show that offenders in both cities are highly concentrated in socially disorganised communities with few economic and social resources.     

Concurrent cross-validation of the Self-Appraisal Questionnaire: a tool for assessing violent and nonviolent recidivism and institutional adjustment on a sample of North Carolina offenders

The aim of this study was to determine whether the Self-Appraisal Questionnaire (SAQ), a tool that was found to be reliable and valid for assessing violent and nonviolent recidivism and institutional adjustment for Canadian offenders, would also be valid for the same purposes with a demographically different population of North Carolina offenders. The internal consistency alphas and SAQ total and subscale scores' correlations were high. Offenders with high SAQ total scores had significantly more violent offenses, had more total number of past offenses, had higher numbers of past arrests, and had more institutional infractions than those with low SAQ scores. There were no significant differences between the responses of the African American and Caucasian offenders on the SAQ scales. These results support previous findings regarding the reliability and validity of the SAQ for assessing recidivism and institutional adjustment and suggest that the SAQ could be used with diverse populations.     

A Social Interactionist Approach to the Victim-Offender Overlap

A social interactionist perspective suggests that violent offenders are frequently victims of violence because of the way they behave, and the way third parties behave during verbal disputes that lead to escalation. We examine to what extent violent offenders are more likely to be victimized because they tend to engage in provocative actions, are less likely to engage in remedial actions, and more likely to be intoxicated, and because third-parties have a greater tendency to encourage aggressive behaviors during disputes involving offenders. Analyses are based on an original situational-level survey of male inmates and men in the community about characteristics of their verbal and violent interpersonal disputes. We examined the extent to which various dispute-related behaviors and third-party actions mediated the relationship between offending and two study outcomes: whether the dispute became violent and whether the antagonist was victimized. Using two measures of violent offender status, we find that violent actors are more likely to engage in verbal aggression during disputes, are less likely to engage in remedial actions, and are more likely to be intoxicated. Third parties are more likely to be present during the disputes of offenders and they tend to encourage escalation. Combined, these situational processes mediate a substantial portion of the relationship between offending and violent victimization. The findings indicate the victim-offender overlap is partly due to the behaviors of offenders and third parties during disputes that significantly increase the risk of conflict escalation.     

Antisocial constructs in predicting institutional violence among violent offenders and child molesters

This study investigated the ability of self-reported antisocial constructs to predict serious institutional infractions among a correctional sample of child molesters (n = 69) and violent offenders (n = 138). Each group had significant predictors, but the predictors differed between the two groups. Interpersonal problems accounted for significant incremental variance after age in the relationship with institutional violence for child molesters. With the violent offender group, alienation and impulse expression showed significant incremental variance after accounting for age. Alienation and impulse expression also added to age in the relationship with the function of failure over time for the most institutionally disruptive. Implications for institutional classification and clinical use in an offender population are discussed.     

The PCL-R and violent recidivism in a prospective follow-up of a nationwide sample of female offenders

Psychopathy has been linked to violent reoffending in men, but the findings in women have been contradictory. The aim of this study was to examine the predictive validity of the Psychopathy Checklist-Revised (PCL-R) for violent recidivism in a nationwide sample of female violent offenders. The offenders (n = 48) had been assessed by the PCL-R and were followed after their release from prison or a psychiatric hospital. The average follow-up period was 8 years. Of the offenders, 16 (33%) had been reconvicted of a violent crime. Current findings of the performance indicators did not support the use of the PCL-R as a predictive instrument assessing risk of violent recidivism in females. The findings indicate that impulsivity plays a crucial role in female violent recidivism and that the PCL-R should be used with caution in risk assessment with female populations.