The Ludwig Martens–Maxim Litvinov Connection, 1919–1921

Research began when the author realized that Antony Sutton had misidentified the author of a key document published in his Wall Street and the Bolshevik Revolution (1974). This article reports on the interception by federal agents of the document (a letter) brought from the Copenhagen office of Soviet diplomat Maxim Litvinov and intended for Kenneth Durant who was employed by Ludwig Martens, Lenin's unrecognized representative in New York City. Analysis of the letter revealed the true author and opened a research channel for learning more about the backgrounds of three Soviet agents: Bornett Bobroff, Nora Hellgren, and Wilfred Humphries.     

Proceeding in hardship: the trilateralism–bilateralism nexus and the institutional evolution of China–Japan–South Korea trilateralism

In recent decades, the development of trilateral institutions among China, Japan and South Korea has begun to take shape. This study analyzes its strengths and weaknesses with regard to the nexus between trilateralism and bilateralism. A well-functioning trilateral grouping needs to overcome two structural limitations – dilution effects and bilateral constraints – both of which are triggered by embedded bilateral approaches. The critical juncture approach is effective in terms of elevating the payoffs of cooperative trilateralism during times of exigency. However, once common crises have dissipated, trilateralism has revealed starkly different performances with respect to functional and political-diplomatic cooperation. This article adopts a dichotomous approach between the two. Functional trilateralism has been steadily growing, and has proven to be less subject to fluctuations in the nations’ political relationships. Its outcomes are positive and worthy of praise. However, the outcomes of trilateralism have been less convincing in fields of middle and high politics. Trilateralism is overwhelmingly subject to fluctuations when its embedded bilateral relations change, and cooperative outcomes within a trilateral grouping are prone to being diluted by bilateral approaches. China–Japan–Korea trilateralism at diplomatic levels remains more an extension of bilateral relations than a mature form of minilateral arrangement.     

Managing the MedUSA: comparing the political economy of US–Japan,US–German,and US–UK relations

Abstract

International experience tells that public services often fail to work for those in need. To make things work requires complex institutional changes that are difficult to come by, let alone sustain. This paper examines the situation of rural public service provision in China and a local attempt to revamp the service provision institution through adjusting the mix of state and the market. It reveals the dialectical process of policy evolution whereby innovation, and resistance to it, has emerged.     

The Japan–South Korea rift

Relations between Japan and South Korea reached a new low last year. Disagreements over the historical legacy of Japan’s occupation and colonisation of South Korea inflamed public opinion, leading each side to pursue tit-for-tat measures that, for the first time, spilled over into the economic and security dimensions of the relationship. Meanwhile, the United States, which has traditionally served as an intermediary, is questioning the wisdom of its own posture in East Asia.     

US–Israel relations under Trump

President Trump has backpedalled on his disruptive pre-inauguration support for expanding West Bank settlements, a one-state solution to the Israeli-Palestinian conflict, moving the US embassy to Jerusalem and tearing up the Iran nuclear agreement. Nevertheless, at least in the short term, Israel is likely to face less US resistance in pursuing aggressive policies, especially vis-à-vis the Palestinians, than it did from the Obama administration.     

Public Service Motivation: A Test of the Job Attraction–Selection–Attrition Model

ABSTRACT

Public service motivation (PSM) research suggests that PSM influences employee sector choice, yet relatively little research examines how time moderates this relationship. In this research we examine public service motivation among private and public sector lawyers. Using survey data that measure sector of employment at multiple time periods, we investigate the stability of the relationship between individual reward orientations and sector employment choice over time. Our findings suggest that while PSM may not clearly predict the employment sector of a respondent's first job, it does increase the likelihood that a respondent's subsequent job is in the public sector.     

Explaining the Breakdown of the Religion–Vote Relationship in The Netherlands, 1971–2006

This article examines the extent to which changes in the effect of religion on voting in The Netherlands since the 1970s can be explained by ‘bottom-up’ and ‘top-down’ approaches. The first includes religious integration and education. The latter category encompasses the restructuring of the party system and changes in party positions. Hypotheses are tested employing logistic and conditional logistic regression analyses of the Dutch Parliamentary Election Studies (1971–2006) supplemented by data from the Comparative Manifesto Project. Weakening religious integration largely explains the decline of political boundaries between non-religious voters and Catholics and Calvinists. In line with earlier research, the article finds that the creation of a single Christian Democratic Party (CDA) has reduced the religion–vote relationship. However, this merger effect largely disappears after taking into account party positions. Moreover, party positions influence the religion–vote association: the effect of religion on voting increases as religious parties emphasise traditional moral issues in their manifestos.     

The Remaking of China–EUrope Relations in the New Era of US–China Antagonism

Journal of Chinese Political Science - The recent years have witnessed a significant change in China–EUrope relations, with the EU’s strategic positioning of China undergoing a...     

Democratisation through the Supply–Demand Prism

The end of the Cold War brought about a new wave of proliferation of market economy and democracy. Both are spreading through purposeful efforts of Western exporters and Eastern importers as well as by way of example. These generally positive processes are not, however, without considerable negative side effects and setbacks. The article considers three pairs of dialectical contradictions: parallel democratization and introduction of free markets, democratization and liberalism, and democratization and nationalism. Naïve, hypocritical, and pragmatic approaches to democracy promotion, as well as factors facilitating or hindering democratization (sometimes making it impossible) of specific societies, are analyzed. One of the central problems is the question of absolute or relative (contingent on time, space, and other factors) universality of democracy. The article concludes that democracy has to be mainly demand-driven, not supply-induced. It also considers to what extent external efforts can compensate for the weaknesses of domestic facilitators and what happens when there are attempts to export democracy to societies that are not ready for that.     

Explaining United States–China relations: neoclassical realism and the nexus of threat–interest perceptions

How to understand and explain the evolutions as well as predict the future directions of bilateral relations between the United States and China has become an imperative task for both policy makers and academic scholars. Borrowing insights from neoclassical realism, this paper suggests a three-stage, perceptual model of ‘threat–interest’ to explore the dynamics of Sino–US relations from 1949 to 2015. It argues that the nature of US–China relations, either cooperation or competition, is mainly shaped by the perceptions of leaders regarding security threats and economic interests between the two nations. How to manage their perceptions regarding each other and how to find a balance between cooperation and competition are the key issues for leaders in both the United States and China to manage bilateral relations in the future. The next decade or two may be the best or the worst times for US–China relations.     

Economic voting in Sweden 1985–2010

Despite the fact that Sweden has the world’s second longest time-series of national election Studies, the standard model of micro-level economic voting has only been occasionally applied in Sweden. This study presents a long-term perspective on economic voting in Sweden and analyzes to what extent economic perceptions influence governmental support in general elections in Sweden at the eight latest parliamentary elections, 1985--2010. To this end, this article makes use of the rolling two-wave panels of the Swedish national election studies and estimates the probability of voting for the government depending on economic perceptions, previous vote, ideology and a set of SES controls. The results show that Swedish voting behaviour is no exception to that of most western democracies; subjective economic evaluations of the Swedish economy systematically influence government support. If voters feel the economy is improving they are more likely to vote for the incumbent government than when they feel the economy is getting worse.     

Problems of French communism 1972–86

This article seeks to trace the decline of the PCF as revealed in the failure of its alliance policies. The conclusion is that since 1972 it has lagged in the formulation of an attractive and realistic strategic project and in its analysis of French socio‐political reality. The political strategy based on unclear and outdated thinking in these spheres gave birth to unsuccessful alliance policies that have marginalised the party. Having in this process lost its traditional hardcore support, the PCF's future depends on its capacity for innovation and on its throwing overboard some inherited theoretical ballast.     

Hanoi's Strategic Surprise, 1964–65

In late 1964 and early 1965, American intelligence failed to predict North Vietnam's shift to a strategy of decisive large-unit warfare. The Americans acquired a large amount of accurate information on Vietnamese Communist capabilities but were late in identifying one key change in enemy capabilities, the deployment of North Vietnamese Army regiments to South Vietnam. Misled because of inadequate intelligence collection and analysis, the administration of President Lyndon Johnson pursued a strategy of restraint that encouraged the enemy to seek a swift victory.     

Gendered Justice Gaps in Bosnia–Herzegovina

A gendered reading of the liberal peacebuilding and transitional justice project in Bosnia–Herzegovina raises critical questions concerning the quality of the peace one hopes to achieve in transitional societies. By focusing on three-gendered justice gaps—the accountability, acknowledgement, and reparations gaps—this article examines structural constraints for women to engage in shaping and implementing transitional justice, and unmasks transitional justice as a site for the long-term construction of the gendered post-conflict order. Thus, the gendered dynamics of peacebuilding and transitional justice have produced a post-conflict order characterized by gendered peace and justice gaps. Yet, we conclude that women are doing justice within the Bosnian–Herzegovina transitional justice project, and that their presence and participation is complex, multilayered, and constrained yet critical.     

The deterioration of Australia–China relations

Relations between Australia and China reached a new low after Australia’s foreign minister demanded an international inquiry into China’s response to the outbreak of the novel coronavirus. Beijing’s pointed diplomatic response and imposition economic retaliatory measures are speeding the pace of Canberra’s already ongoing re-evaluation of the relationship.     

Political Institutions and the Opinion–Policy Link

The link between public opinion and policy is of special importance in representative democracies. Policymakers’ responsiveness to public opinion is critical. Public responsiveness to policy itself is as well. Only a small number of studies compare either policy or public responsiveness across political systems, however. Previous research has focused on a handful of countries – mostly the US, UK and Canada – that share similar cultures and electoral systems. It remains, then, for scholars to assess the opinion–policy connection across a broad range of contexts. This paper takes a first step in this direction, drawing on data from two sources: (1) public preferences for spending from the International Social Survey Program (ISSP) and (2) measures of government spending from OECD spending datasets. These data permit a panel analysis of 17 countries. The article tests theories about the effects of federalism, executive–legislative imbalance, and the proportionality of electoral systems. The results provide evidence of the robustness of the ‘thermostatic’ model of opinion and policy but also the importance of political institutions as moderators of the connections between them.     

The Malayan special branch on the Malayan–Thai frontier during the Malayan emergency (1948–60)

The Malayan Special Branch was the main intelligence agency of the Malayan government during the Malayan Emergency of 1948–60. It was a critical determinant in the government's efforts to defeat the determined attempts of the Malayan Communist Party (CPM) and its guerrilla army, the Malayan National Liberation Army (MNLA), to overthrow the Malayan government and establish a Socialist People's Republic of Malaya. This paper examines the counterinsurgency operations carried out by the Malayan Special Branch in southern Thailand as part of the Emergency, and the establishment of a Special Branch Border Section in Penang and a joint regional Malayan–Thai Special Branch office in Songkhla, southern Thailand, to coordinate intelligence operations against the communist insurgents.