Upon the 70th Anniversary of the Constitution: Summary of Debate on the Constitution of Japan

On November 3, 1946, the current Constitution of Japan was promulgated. Immediately before it came into effect on May 3, 1947, I was elected for the first time in the general election in April 1947 and entered national politics as a member of the House of Representatives. Since then, the Constitution of Japan moved through its 70-year-history, which overlaps my life as a politician at 99 years of age.     

Examining the Micro-level Foundations of Japan’s Two-party System Following Government Alternation

A consensus exists among political scientists and the media that a two party system has become firmly established in Japan, and power alternation following the 2009 House of Representatives election seemed to confirm this trend. In contrast, in this study I draw on both election and public opinion data to illustrate that Japan's two-party system rests on fragile micro foundations, particularly since the change of government, and may therefore not constitute a stable equilibrium. Specifically, the two-party system is sustained by the logic of competition in single member districts, but lacks strong backing among a large proportion of the public. Evidence in support of this argument include 1) decreasing vote shares for both the Liberal Democratic Party and the Democratic Party of Japan in the 2010 House of Councillors election, and 2) a weakening relationship between support for these two parties in monthly polls, in contrast to previous years when LDP and DPJ ratings mirrored one another. I discuss some potential implications of these developments, such as the growing prominence of regional parties and prospects for electoral rule changes.     

When winners are losers: The stalemate of Australian politics

The 1998 federal election emphasizes the fact that in Australian politics the power of the major parties remains strong both in terms of voter identification and in terms of setting the policy agenda on which political contests are fought, say Professors John Wanna and Patrick Weller from the Department of Public Policy at Griffith University, Brisbane, Australia. The results of the election nevertheless illustrate a substantial level of discontent in the community, and the term of the next government promises frequent stalemates, as the clash between the House of Representatives and the Senate makes the passing of controversial legislation difficult.     

The Class of 96: A Biographical Analysis of New Government Members of the Australian House of Representatives

The 1996 federal election brought thirty-six new government members into the House of Representatives. The size of the "Class of 96" provides an opportunity for a comparison of biographical characteristics, looking for common experiences and backgrounds, as well as for an exploration of similarities and differences with previous cohorts of Coalition MPs. This examination will suggest that, in biographical terms, the "Class of 96" represents a significant new development in Australian politics. Further, a detailed analysis of the first speeches of the members of the "Class of 96" provides a window into the minds of those who have sought and achieved office on behalf of the Liberal and National parties after thirteen years in the political wilderness.     

Pitchers and catchers: Politicians,bureaucrats, and policy‐making in Japan

Yasuhiro Nakasone draws on his five years as Prime Minister of Japan and over forty‐five years as a member of the Diet's Lower House to analyze some of the fundamental characteristics of Japan's policy‐making process. He asserts that Japan urgently needs to reconstruct this process, so that political decisions are entrusted to elected politicians rather than to unelected bureaucrats. But he stresses that politicians must also have the responsibility to stand up for their principles, and be willing at times to go against the popular consensus. Yasuhiro Nakasone is chairman of IIPS and a member of the House of Representatives. He was assisted in the preparation of this article by IIPS Visiting Research Fellow Philipp Schuller, a doctoral candidate at Oxford University. An earlier and partial version of this article appeared in the October 1994 issue of Intersect.     

Crisp,The Senate,And The Constitution

This essay explores the development of L.F. Crisp's understanding of the appropriate role of Australia's Senate in the national political system. A review of his widely‐used textbook over three decades reveals that, to Crisp, the Senate was conceived primarily to protect state interests, but that role was nullified almost immediately by the emergence of disciplined parties. Thereafter, the Senate usually was an ineffectual irrelevancy until the introduction of proportional representation transformed it into a threat to the constitutional system as it should operate. Crisp also appreciated that disciplined parties undermined effective control of government by the House of Representatives, yet he consistently failed to recognize in the Senate an institution capable of doing what the House of Representatives cannot: enforcing accountability on the government of the day.     

Economic conditions and voting in Japanese house elections

Based on a Downsian perspective of voting behavior, this study assesses the extent to which short-term regional economic conditions influenced the electoral district vote for Japan’s ruling Liberal Democratic Party in the 1983 and 1986 elections to the House of Representatives. Unlike traditional scholarly interpretations, which stress the unique and nonindividualistic determinants of Japanese voting, our regression estimates indicate that economic voting in Japan resembles that identified in studies of other political systems, where unemployment has been shown to be an important predictor of the vote, which income is not. The findings fit with more recent evidence that Japanese political behavior is genuinely susceptible to comparative analysis, and point to the need for a revised understanding of Japanese electoral behavior.     

Realpolitik Versus Principled Politics: Nitobe,Shidehara, Shirasu and the Hollowing out of the Japanese Peace Constitution

It is argued that the current debate surrounding the revision of article 9 of the Japanese peace constitution has shifted from a debate on non-violent ideals and principles rooted in the pacifism of Shidehara, spiritual father of article 9, to a more pragmatic logic of military action and Realpolitik which lacks intellectual depth, foresight and historical awareness. The article questions the inherent logic that tries to give a purpose to the military and gain international reputation by reinterpreting article 9 indiscriminately. Since 2004, the overseas dispatch of SDF forces into the Iraq combat zone has split the nation more than ever and a national consensus on what article 9 should stand for is further threatened by Government attempts to extend the application of article 9 to military activities outside Japan under the banner of collective defense. Ahead of the 2009 general election for the Lower House opposition and ruling parties have apparently agreed that time has come to review the text of article 9 for the first time after the war based on the premises of Realpolitik. Article 9 in its current wording still represents a very cherished core principle to the nation as a whole despite the military buildup and despite the tacit acceptance of the SDF and of the right to limited self-defense. The current popular mood against collective self-defense, against the overseas deployment of SDF, against the unequitable US-Japan Security Treaty and against nuclear weapons- termed “negative pacifism”- differs from the voluntarist security policies in the election platforms of the LDP and DPJ. Ordinary citizens in and outside Japan have challenged the political elite by teaming up to preach the peaceful spirit of article 9 to the world. It is asserted that the intended revision of article 9 has caused lasting changes in civic political grass-root culture.     

A Feminised Style of Politics? Women MPs in the House of Commons

One hundred and one Labour women MPs were returned to the House of Commons at the 1997 general election. Constituting 24 per cent of the Parliamentary Labour Party, they were, according to critical mass theory, a 'tilted group' and in a position to effect change. Drawing on 23 in-depth interviews with Labour women MPs first elected in 1997, this article establishes that many of them believe that women politicians practise politics in a feminised way. This claim is, however, premised upon gender rather than sex differences and party identity is also identified as an important determinant. The women MPs' perception that women's style is less legitimate than men's is explored through a discussion of the newly elected Labour women MPs' loyalty in parliamentary votes.     

参议院选举后的日本政党政治

日本第22届参议院选举后，由于民主党与国民新党组成的执政联盟丧失了在参议院的多数席位，“扭曲国会”再次出现，致使日本政党政治的局面曼趋复杂。综合运用计量分析和实证描述方法，通过权力、制度、选民3个层面，以政权运营的状况、选举的非代表性缺陷、选民偏好和舆论影响为视角对参议院选举后的日本政党政治进行全面分析，将有助于深刻理解当前日本政党政治的生态环境及其发展路径。     

Leadership Lessons: Minority Governments,Independents and Relationships

The 2010 Australian election returned the first “hung” House of Representatives since the Second World War. This paper tracks the political lessons of history to the only other time when a prime minister had to work in a hung parliament. Circumstances and political parties differ, but on closer examination some common themes emerge. The prime ministership is both a gift and a burden, where control is, for the most part illusory. R.G. Menzies lacked the personal qualities his parliamentary colleagues found in Arthur Fadden. In 1941 he lost the prime ministership because he lost the support of his party room. Just as she had defeated Kevin Rudd in 2010, Julia Gillard was eventually defeated in a caucus ballot in June 2013. However, at least initially, Gillard displayed personal traits which Rudd lacked and which enabled her to retain the trust of both the ALP caucus and key independent members. History contains some valid lessons which, given recent events, need restating: relationships in politics matter.     

Somaliland's post-war reconstruction: Rubble to rebuilding

ABSTRACT

This study captures the momentum of Somaliland's national reconciliation nationstate-rebuilding phase as it drives a reconstruction process involving the demobilisation of militias; internal state institutional reconstruction focusing on the House of Elders and the House of Representatives; the international dimensions of reconstruction involving humanitarian aid and developmental assistance; private reconstruction initiatives interacting with the development of a monetary exchange process and the participation of the Somaliland diaspora; and the role of women as the backbone of the Somaliland economy, and how all of these social components of nation-state building are framed constitutionally in the crafting of a multi-party democracy with northern Somali characteristics. However, the broader context in which these reconstructive dynamics unfold is conditioned by the emergence of militant expressions of political Islam within and outside the Somali coast in and around the Red Sea ‘Afrabian’ transregion and the Persian Gulf.     

Zur Geschäftsordnungsreform des österreichischen Reichsrates vom Dezember 1909

SUMMARY

In 1907, the (Cisleithanian) Austrian House of Representatives considered an electoral reform which was initially supposed to be connected with a comprehensive reform of the rules of procedure (Geschäftsordnungsgesetz); however, difficulties in the course of the negotiations led to the decision to let the House decide its own procedure in future. Subsequently, government bills were introduced repeatedly but remained either unfinished or altogether ignored. Furthermore, motions which were mostly politically motivated and focused only on certain aspects of procedure were put forward by various deputies.

The Austrian parliamentary system suffered from an antiquated procedure, with procedural wrangling and filibustering (Obstruktionen) against government and prime minister as impediments. At the end the eighteenth sitting of the twentieth session (15.12–19.12.1909), devoted mainly to such wrangles, saw a tactical move leading to a provisional procedural reform which was modest in content. The path towards this reform was paved with superficial discussions which were to uncover differences of opinion and breaches of the law; however, even the majority of parties who refused either reform or its development were actually in favour of it because they were after all supporters of a functioning parliamentary system. Reform contained various possibilities for speeding up the formal business routine as well as an ineffective paragraph on servants of the house (Hausknechtsabsatz), which enabled the Speaker to exclude a representative from a sitting.

Superficially, reform was designed to strengthen the Speaker of the House of Representatives but in fact none of the leading parties was really interested in getting rid of procedural obstruction by this means. What was of greater importance to them was to have an opportunity to agitate against the government or the majority in the House. Thus it does not seem surprising that shortly after the reform, obstruction started anew.     

Climbing to the Rooftop,Falling off,yet Landing on One’s Feet (and Finding a Wallet on the Pavement?): The Electoral Fate of the Greek Ecogreens (2004–15)

After a prolonged period of feeble electoral success, the Ecologists Greens (Ecogreens) managed to break into the Greek political landscape by electing one MEP in the 2009 European election. However, that electoral success proved to be quite short-lived, since in the years to follow the Greek Greens faded away. They were divided and faced the threat of political extinction, only to be resuscitated at the national election of 2015 by allying themselves with the winning leftist Coalition of the Radical Left (SYRIZA). This article draws on archival and survey data to recount the electoral fate of the Ecologists Greens from their creation to their current place in the Greek parliament and government.     

The 2014 Parliamentary Elections in India: A Study of the Voting Preferences of Muslims in Uttar Pradesh

This paper analyses the manner in which over the past few years, the major political parties in the largest Indian state of Uttar Pradesh have calibrated their policies with the objective of wooing Muslim voters. It examines the factors which shaped Muslim electoral behaviour in the general election of 2014 to the Lok Sabha (Lower House of the Indian Parliament) and how the electoral arithmetic was transformed in the run-up to this election. By analysing institutional, political and intra-community factors, it explores the reasons for the declining importance and representation of Muslims in the electoral arena of Uttar Pradesh.     

Finding stability in change

Asia is facing a period of great change as we head toward the twenty‐first century. It is vitally important that Asian nations find stability within this change, not simply for its own sake, but in order to increase the prosperity and well‐being of citizens, says Anthony Lake, former National Security Advisor for President Clinton. He argues that common, globally‐accepted “rules of the road” must be adopted in order to ensure a peaceful stability in the Asia‐Pacific region and in the world. This is a revised version of a speech Lake gave to the Symposium of the Global Forum on 19 September 1997 at International House of Japan in Tokyo.     

Forecasting Seats from Votes in British General Elections

This article develops a forecasting model of seat shares in the House of Commons applied to general election outcomes. The model utilises past information about party seat shares, together with data from the polls gathered prior to the election, to forecast the number of seats won by the parties. Once it has been estimated the model will be used to make a forecast of the outcome of a possible general election in May 2005. The article starts by focusing on research into translating votes into seats, or the cube rule and its modifications. It then goes on to develop the forecasting model, which is based on electoral and poll data from 1945 to 2001.     

Compensatory Voting in Direct Legislation. Evidence from Switzerland

In elections, voters sometimes compensate for post‐election bargaining processes by electing parties that are more extreme than themselves. We investigate compensatory voting in direct democracy. Our goals are to develop and test a measure of compensatory voting in direct legislation and assess its extent of compensatory voting. Empirically, we draw on the case of Switzerland, a country with frequent popular votes. We operationalize compensatory voting as voting ‘yes’ on a popular initiative in spite of endorsing arguments that speak against this initiative, under the condition of being well‐informed about the initiative. Using data from post‐ballot surveys on 17'570 individuals having voted on 63 popular initiatives in the period 1993 to 2015, our analysis shows that compensatory voting has not significantly increased in Switzerland in this period.     

One‐nation pacifism: Japan's security problems and challenges to the US‐Japan alliance

It is hard to judge where Japan really stands on defense issues, and foreigners and Japanese alike over‐emphasize the importance of form and neglect real substance when trying to judge Japanese attitudes, according to Sam Jameson, the dean of American journalists in Japan, who has lived and worked here for 38 years. Japan is not as pacifistic a nation as Article 9 mandated it ought to be, but neither is it the innately militaristic country that some of its Asian neighbors believe it to be. Japan spends more money on wine and women and karaoke singing than on weapons. However, Japan needs to give more serious attention to defense issues; it cannot opt out of the world. It should amend its Constitution to accord with defense realities, acknowledge past aggression, adopt a needs‐oriented system of defense budgeting, and give its defense capabilities more depth. Jameson is a visiting scholar at UPS, and is working on a book about Japan.